Winter Meetings Thread

[Bull]

On 12/14/2025 at 12:50 PM, The Cubs Dude said:

Don't worry--I'm back now, back to baseball. 

Now, I'm trying to explain how as the demand for a certain type of pitcher increases, the price increases. Seems like a no-brainer, right?

What you are largely missing here is that demand actually decreases when a transaction occurs in an ecosystem with a limited number of buyers, and no potential of upstarts increasing demand. Thus antitrust issues in baseball and a CBA. 

Edited December 15, 2025 by Bull

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, thawv said:

Honestly, I don't know.  I think it's going to be around 6 million AAV as a reliever.

ESPN has Keller listed as the 36 ranked FA,  ahead of Pagan, Finnegan and Maton. All who have signed bigger deals that 2/$12. They estimate Keller at 2/$22. I think that is much closer to reality. 
MLB has him ranked 26th, ahead of Rogers, Finnegan, Fairbanks, Maton & Helsly. Many who have signed for more than 2/$12 already. MLB has him at 3/$36M. 
So there you go. 2 other sources showing a much higher value. Do you really want to stick to your sources of info? 

Edited December 15, 2025 by Rcal10

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, imb said:

does make me curious what he does with nico. He's 28 and he's really good but if Nico wants more than say, 4-5 years, I could see Jed balking at committing to a light-hitting MIF who's nearing 30. 

Nico will actually be 30 in 2027, I think if Jed does offer an extension though, my guess would be something like 4/80.

I think Hoyer will offer low especially if Rojas and or Hernandez has a good season in 2026.

[Bertz]

There is no new rumor here, but given that Cerami is fairly decently connected I think it's interesting that he wrote this now mostly unprompted.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, imb said:

not only was the soriano contract fine, they literally signed him to that deal to increase the price of the team so they could sell it to ricketts for more money. i sure wish the ricketts would sign a couple big ticket guys and sell the team too

That i remember, they had a 66 win team with Dusty in 2006, went out and hired Pinella and brought in Soriano and other FA to spice up the team and won the division with 85 wins and then sold them to the Ricketts. Lol

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

That i remember, they had a 66 win team with Dusty in 2006, went out and hired Pinella and brought in Soriano and other FA to spice up the team and won the division with 85 wins and then sold them to the Ricketts. Lol

You’re leaving out they won 97 games the following year with a very good team. Soriano was fine. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rob said:

There's still a sizeable portion of the Cubs fanbase that thinks the Soriano contract was a massive bust. He'd just come off a 46 HR / 41 SB season, and people expected him to replicate that. Nevermind that his first season with the Cubs was actually better than the 40/40 campaign, his estimation among fans never improved. His constant injuries didn't help.

But yeah, in truth he basically played to almost exactly what you'd expect from that contract. The shape of the production was a bit odd, but we got what we bargained for in total.

I was beyond ecstatic when they signed Soriano...

maybe im wrong but weren't they(Theo/Jed) trying to move him but having a hard time because of his age/money/years left on his deal ?  Then they were able to trade him back to the Yankees but had to eat money to just recieve some low level pitcher in return. 

To answer RCAL question through your post, I just think having to go through that process with Soriano and Heyward deal, might have some to do with Hoyer hesitation to offer up the long term (7+ yrs) deals to guys around 30.

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There is no new rumor here, but given that Cerami is fairly decently connected I think it's interesting that he wrote this now mostly unprompted.

If Washington is ready to be realistic sure, because asking for Shaw+Horton was just the equivalent to hanging up the phone. We can't offer basically anything as far as arms go, but I wonder if something like Caissie+Long+Assad would get it done. Maybe something more interesting than Long a bit further away like Cristian Hernandez

 

[chibears55]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You’re leaving out they won 97 games the following year with a very good team. Soriano was fine. 

Never said his contract wasn't fine, or he wasn't playing good, was just going down memory lane in response to the poster about when the Tribune sold the Cubs.

In my response to Rob, I answered your previous question 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I was beyond ecstatic when they signed Soriano...

maybe im wrong but weren't they(Theo/Jed) trying to move him but having a hard time because of his age/money/years left on his deal ?  Then they were able to trade him back to the Yankees but had to eat money to just recieve some low level pitcher in return. 

To answer RCAL question through your post, I just think having to go through that process with Soriano and Heyward deal, might have some to do with Hoyer hesitation to offer up the long term (7+ yrs) deals to guys around 30.

Like Swanson? And wasn’t Heyward 27 or at most 28? Aren’t all FA at least that old? I just don’t see why what Hendry did 20 years ago should have any affect on what Jed does now. 

[Rcal10]

27 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If Washington is ready to be realistic sure, because asking for Shaw+Horton was just the equivalent to hanging up the phone. We can't offer basically anything as far as arms go, but I wonder if something like Caissie+Long+Assad would get it done. Maybe something more interesting than Long a bit further away like Cristian Hernandez

 

Of the Cubs could get Gore without trading Shaw, Horton or Wiggins and only use either Cassie or Ballestaros (not both) as the first piece, I would be all for a Gore trade. Somebody like Cassie, Rojas and either Assad or Brown would be fine with me. If that doesn’t get Gore I would see about Cabrera or Ryan. Maybe not all those guys. But the highest valued young guy I would want them to deal is Cassie. Not interested in dealing Shaw, Horton or Wiggins. 

[BKHoo]

I am a long time Nats fan and I will just say their focus on what they want back will be pitching.  

[Rcal10]

52 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

I am a long time Nats fan and I will just say their focus on what they want back will be pitching.  

Cubs don’t fit then. I don’t see Horton or Wiggins being traded in a Gore deal. 

[Bertz]

So tragic what apparently happened to Brown and Wicks

Edited December 16, 2025 by Bertz

[Rcal10]

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

So tragic what apparently happened to Brown and Wicks

Really think Brown or Wicks moves the needle for Gore, if their first priority is pitching?
I think if a team wants pitching as the main return for any high end player, they want young prospects or someone early in his career with solid upside. Cubs have 2 pitchers like that. Wiggins and Horton. And I wouldn’t move either for Gore. I see Brown and Wicks as most likely a 3rd piece in a trade for Gore. Maybe a second if the Nats really like one of those two. But if they want a pitching heavy return, those guys won’t get it done, IMO. 

Edited December 16, 2025 by Rcal10

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Like Swanson? And wasn’t Heyward 27 or at most 28? Aren’t all FA at least that old? I just don’t see why what Hendry did 20 years ago should have any affect on what Jed does now. 

Soriano was 31 when he got an 8 yr contract..  I personally have no gripe about it.

My bringing up Soriano is mainly in my thinking of why Hoyer might be hesitant in giving out those type of contracts (8+yrs)length wise and giving them out to guys that 30+.  He was the GM when he and Theo were trying to trade Soriano towards the end of that contract but couldn't get any takers because of Soriano age and money owed, they finally got the Yankees to bite but had to pay part of the contract just to get back a low level pitcher in return.

Heyward was Theo guy.

Swanson the only guy he has signed so far for 7 yrs.

Yes majority of FA now are 30 or close to it and so far in Hoyers 6th offseason as POBO, outside of Swanson(28), he hasn't inked anyone for more than 5 years, they've been 3-5 at most.

I just personally feel that Hoyer is just gunshy now and don't want to be in position to be stuck with a long term deal with a guy after age 35. I could be wrong as to why but until he actually signs players to a long term deal past age 35, theres a reason why he doesn't and that just my thoughts on why.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Soriano was 31 when he got an 8 yr contract..  I personally have no gripe about it.

My bringing up Soriano is mainly in my thinking of why Hoyer might be hesitant in giving out those type of contracts (8+yrs)length wise and giving them out to guys that 30+.  He was the GM when he and Theo were trying to trade Soriano towards the end of that contract but couldn't get any takers because of Soriano age and money owed, they finally got the Yankees to bite but had to pay part of the contract just to get back a low level pitcher in return.

Heyward was Theo guy.

Swanson the only guy he has signed so far for 7 yrs.

Yes majority of FA now are 30 or close to it and so far in Hoyers 6th offseason as POBO, outside of Swanson(28), he hasn't inked anyone for more than 5 years, they've been 3-5 at most.

I just personally feel that Hoyer is just gunshy now and don't want to be in position to be stuck with a long term deal with a guy after age 35. I could be wrong as to why but until he actually signs players to a long term deal past age 35, theres a reason why he doesn't and that just my thoughts on why.

11 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Soriano was 31 when he got an 8 yr contract..  I personally have no gripe about it.

My bringing up Soriano is mainly in my thinking of why Hoyer might be hesitant in giving out those type of contracts (8+yrs)length wise and giving them out to guys that 30+.  He was the GM when he and Theo were trying to trade Soriano towards the end of that contract but couldn't get any takers because of Soriano age and money owed, they finally got the Yankees to bite but had to pay part of the contract just to get back a low level pitcher in return.

Heyward was Theo guy.

Swanson the only guy he has signed so far for 7 yrs.

Yes majority of FA now are 30 or close to it and so far in Hoyers 6th offseason as POBO, outside of Swanson(28), he hasn't inked anyone for more than 5 years, they've been 3-5 at most.

I just personally feel that Hoyer is just gunshy now and don't want to be in position to be stuck with a long term deal with a guy after age 35. I could be wrong as to why but until he actually signs players to a long term deal past age 35, theres a reason why he doesn't and that just my thoughts on why.

I actually agree with you that he doesn’t want long term deals that take guys to later 30’s. I just don’t think what the Cubs did with Soriano has anything to do with it. I also don’t think they think twice about Heyward either. I just think Jed is very cautious and doesn’t ba e the stomach for having a guy at the end of his career on a bad deal. 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

So tragic what apparently happened to Brown and Wicks

Brown has some value because I think he's a tweek away from being at least a mid rotation starter. Wicks is probably a 3rd  piece in a deal for any big piece. He's constantly hurt and even when he's healthy he's a back of the rotation guy.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I was beyond ecstatic when they signed Soriano...

maybe im wrong but weren't they(Theo/Jed) trying to move him but having a hard time because of his age/money/years left on his deal ?  Then they were able to trade him back to the Yankees but had to eat money to just recieve some low level pitcher in return. 

To answer RCAL question through your post, I just think having to go through that process with Soriano and Heyward deal, might have some to do with Hoyer hesitation to offer up the long term (7+ yrs) deals to guys around 30.

I didn't like the Soriano deal at the time.

Harder to evaluate fielding value back then.  FG and Baseball reference vary wildly on his WAR with the Cubs.  That's was a lot of money at the time to pay a 115-120 wRC+ hitter who they stuck in LF and largely stopped stealing bags.  If he were a decent fielding 2B for us that would be a bit different.  It wasn't a Heyward bust by any means though.

Regarding Heyward, i'm thinking that if I made a 184 million dollar bet and lost and I had to be reminded of it every day for the next 8 years I'd probably lose a lot of sleep and get gun-shy on another huge bet too.  They did sign Swanson though.

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

I didn't like the Soriano deal at the time.

Harder to evaluate fielding value back then.  FG and Baseball reference vary wildly on his WAR with the Cubs.  That's was a lot of money at the time to pay a 115-120 wRC+ hitter who they stuck in LF and largely stopped stealing bags.  If he were a decent fielding 2B for us that would be a bit different.  It wasn't a Heyward bust by any means though.

Regarding Heyward, i'm thinking that if I made a 184 million dollar bet and lost and I had to be reminded of it every day for the next 8 years I'd probably lose a lot of sleep and get gun-shy on another huge bet too.  They did sign Swanson though.

He was coming off a career season too. There was definitely a lot of reason to think he wouldn’t live up to the contract particularly the back half and that’s exactly what happened. 
 

I was happy when we signed him because I thought it meant the Cubs were going to finally throw their financial muscle around but in reality they were trying to up the Cubs value to sell. I was happy that he was a very good bat but he didn’t necessarily feel like the missing piece. Ironically a couple of years later I thought Milton Bradley was the missing piece 😂

At the end of the day Soriano was critical to those 07 and 08 playoff teams and had many fun moments for us so I’m happy we signed him. 

Edited December 16, 2025 by UMFan83

[Stratos]

What do people here think of Ranger Saurez?  His K/9 is league-average but the BB/9 are above-average and he gets lots of groundballs.  Not sure how the velo will play as he ages though, dropped down to 90.5 last year.  Could turn into a Stroman-like pumpkin sooner than Stro did.  I'd probably pass.

[mk49]

10 minutes ago, Stratos said:

What do people here think of Ranger Saurez?  His K/9 is league-average but the BB/9 are above-average and he gets lots of groundballs.  Not sure how the velo will play as he ages though, dropped down to 90.5 last year.  Could turn into a Stroman-like pumpkin sooner than Stro did.  I'd probably pass.

His velo has already dropped.  He's another lefty with not so fast fast ball, like we already have.  He's a ground ball pitcher, unlike Shota, Boyd and Jamo, so it may work out OK.  

That said, I would pick Imai and King over Suarez.  Better than Gallen, though.

[Neuby]

20 minutes ago, Stratos said:

What do people here think of Ranger Saurez?  His K/9 is league-average but the BB/9 are above-average and he gets lots of groundballs.  Not sure how the velo will play as he ages though, dropped down to 90.5 last year.  Could turn into a Stroman-like pumpkin sooner than Stro did.  I'd probably pass.

Not worth losing the draft picks and cash for. 

[Stratos]

53 minutes ago, mk49 said:

His velo has already dropped.  He's another lefty with not so fast fast ball, like we already have.  He's a ground ball pitcher, unlike Shota, Boyd and Jamo, so it may work out OK.  

Imagine having Boyd, Shota, Steele, and Suarez haha.  You could plunk Horton and Taillon between them so it wouldn't be that bad.  I'd prefer King and probably Imai over him too.

[Cuzi]

King has apparently eliminated the Cubs and named the Orioles, Red Sox, and Yankees as his finalists.

It's pretty much Imai or bust at this point.

With the lack of interest in signing a S tier player like Tucker, this is shaping up to be a dud of an offseason. It's going to be funny how quickly that gameplan of "waiting out the desperate market" til prices decrease turns into a desperate dash to the finish for the Cubs on the trade market.