Winter Meetings Thread

[thawv]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But why are you even using those when they are clearly not correct? Do you really think Keller is going to get $1.8M for one year? After seeing what others have signed for do you really think Keller is going to sign 2/$12M or Fairbanks 3/$44M. Assuming you agree those are not correct why would you default to these numbers? 

Crowd Source has been pretty spot on so far this season except for Cease who got 4 million more AAV than predicted. 

I think Kellers MVA on Spotrac is a joke.  But they did show their comps to justify it.  I think he gets in the 2/12 range or about 6 mil AAV.  I think that Fairbanks get in the 10 million AAV. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

Crowd Source has been pretty spot on so far this season except for Cease who got 4 million more AAV than predicted. 

I think Kellers MVA on Spotrac is a joke.  But they did show their comps to justify it.  I think he gets in the 2/12 range or about 6 mil AAV.  I think that Fairbanks get in the 10 million AAV. 

If Keller only gets 2/$12M he better get it from the Cubs and better have a deal today. There is NO CHANCE that is what he gets. 

[CubinNY]

The Cubs sign FA to a contract that avoids the possibility of them being totally upside down. Speculation: Tom and the sibs have PTSD from Heyward. Although "they give Jed a budget every year and he makes the decisions.", I have to believe that Jed is making contracts in an avoidance mode. 

 

[thawv]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If Keller only gets 2/$12M he better get it from the Cubs and better have a deal today. There is NO CHANCE that is what he gets. 

I think a lot of it depends on whether he's signed as a SP or RP.  No? 

[imb]

10 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The Cubs sign FA to a contract that avoids the possibility of them being totally upside down. Speculation: Tom and the sibs have PTSD from Heyward. Although "they give Jed a budget every year and he makes the decisions.", I have to believe that Jed is making contracts in an avoidance mode. 

 

man i really hope the heyward contract, which went bad in a way not one single person could have realistically predicted, has not had them spooked off 100m contracts for a decade. the heyward contract wasnt even that big of a deal, it was really how they decided to react to it that horsefeathered them up

[Cuzi]

14 minutes ago, imb said:

man i really hope the heyward contract, which went bad in a way not one single person could have realistically predicted, has not had them spooked off 100m contracts for a decade. the heyward contract wasnt even that big of a deal, it was really how they decided to react to it that horsefeathered them up

I dont think it has anything to do with Heyward. It's just the cowardly way this FO goes about business. They assign a value to a player and that value is a hard cap. It doesn't matter how good the player is. It doesn't matter if it requires a penny more to get the deal done, it's a penny they aren't going to spend.

Since Swanson, the most "valuable" player they have signed based on WAR over the previous seasons is Justin Turner, I believe. That's pretty sad.

Edited December 15, 2025 by Cuzi

[Neuby]

Adolis Garcia to the Phillies one year deal $10M. I like this move for the Phillies GG defense and power lottery ticket.

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, imb said:

man i really hope the heyward contract, which went bad in a way not one single person could have realistically predicted, has not had them spooked off 100m contracts for a decade. the heyward contract wasnt even that big of a deal, it was really how they decided to react to it that horsefeathered them up

It's like an assembly line. You can't produce more than what you believe should be produced. And the current FO is terrible.

Cuzi: That's why, as the days pass, I'm very frustrated on why the Cubs aren't signing Imai. For the life of them, SIGN SOMEONE! As the Phillies and the Dodgers willingly spend their money, the Cubs are sitting there and doing nothing, being quiet, etc.

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think a lot of it depends on whether he's signed as a SP or RP.  No? 

It matters some if he is a starter. But even as just a pen arm, if no one thinks he can start, he gets more than 2/$12M.. 

[Bertz]

27 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Adolis Garcia to the Phillies one year deal $10M. I like this move for the Phillies GG defense and power lottery ticket.

Garcia kinda sucks but he's a big improvement over Nick Castellanos. 

I'm curious if Philly has anything else big planned or if they just re-sign Realmuto and call it a winter.  They'll have to juice payroll further or get *very* creative in trade to do the former.

[Hot Sauce]

33 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Adolis Garcia to the Phillies one year deal $10M. I like this move for the Phillies GG defense and power lottery ticket.

The one year deal is surprising. 

[Bertz]

For however much/little stock you want to put into it Ken Rosenthal on his podcast today said he expects a lot to happen between now and the holidays.

[Hortonhearsawho]

Still 10 days till Christmas I also would expect a bunch of people to sign before then as well. 

[Dfan25]

Yeah , considering that from December 24th , until January 2nd , it’s basically a dead period , I would expect a flurry of moves until the 23rd . 
 

I have some hope that Imai makes his decision before the holidays . For that to happen however , he probably would need to have a couple of finalist already and probably make visits this week .  Seems unlikely 

Edited December 15, 2025 by Dfan25

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, imb said:

man i really hope the heyward contract, which went bad in a way not one single person could have realistically predicted, has not had them spooked off 100m contracts for a decade. the heyward contract wasnt even that big of a deal, it was really how they decided to react to it that horsefeathered them up

I posted the other day that I think Jed seeing the affect of how both Heyward and Soriano contract had on cubs, has probably made him hesitant on signing guys close to 30 or older to any contract length over 7 years, especially if they're 30+ of age. I doubt he'll even consider going more than 5 for a pitcher.

[Rob]

1 minute ago, chibears55 said:

I posted the other day that I think Jed seeing the affect of how both Heyward and Soriano contract had on cubs, has probably made him hesitant on signing guys close to 30 or older to any contract length over 7 years, especially if they're 30+ of age. I doubt he'll even consider going more than 5 for a pitcher.

He went 6 for Darvish, IIRC.

[chibears55]

5 minutes ago, Rob said:

He went 6 for Darvish, IIRC.

Darvish was Theo guy when he signed for 2018, and Hoyer traded away a month after taking over as POBO in 2020

Edited December 15, 2025 by chibears55

[imb]

2 hours ago, Hot Sauce said:

The one year deal is surprising. 

he's 33, has had two straight years of being a negative offensively and defensively. You should be able to find a .700 ops LF who can't run in AAA for free. Garcia getting a contract at all is just the hope that you get a one-year dead cat bounce. 

[imb]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I posted the other day that I think Jed seeing the affect of how both Heyward and Soriano contract had on cubs, has probably made him hesitant on signing guys close to 30 or older to any contract length over 7 years, especially if they're 30+ of age. I doubt he'll even consider going more than 5 for a pitcher.

does make me curious what he does with nico. He's 28 and he's really good but if Nico wants more than say, 4-5 years, I could see Jed balking at committing to a light-hitting MIF who's nearing 30. 

[Hot Sauce]

38 minutes ago, imb said:

does make me curious what he does with nico. He's 28 and he's really good but if Nico wants more than say, 4-5 years, I could see Jed balking at committing to a light-hitting MIF who's nearing 30. 

Light hitting? Did you even watch the game in Houston?! 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I posted the other day that I think Jed seeing the affect of how both Heyward and Soriano contract had on cubs, has probably made him hesitant on signing guys close to 30 or older to any contract length over 7 years, especially if they're 30+ of age. I doubt he'll even consider going more than 5 for a pitcher.

What was the issue with Soriano’s contract? He pretty much played to it, didn’t he. Besides, what does what two different GM’s do (in one case, over a decade ago and the other 2 decades) have to do with what Hoyer does now? 

[imb]

not only was the soriano contract fine, they literally signed him to that deal to increase the price of the team so they could sell it to ricketts for more money. i sure wish the ricketts would sign a couple big ticket guys and sell the team too

[Rob]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What was the issue with Soriano’s contract? He pretty much played to it, didn’t he. Besides, what does what two different GM’s do (in one case, over a decade ago and the other 2 decades) have to do with what Hoyer does now? 

There's still a sizeable portion of the Cubs fanbase that thinks the Soriano contract was a massive bust. He'd just come off a 46 HR / 41 SB season, and people expected him to replicate that. Nevermind that his first season with the Cubs was actually better than the 40/40 campaign, his estimation among fans never improved. His constant injuries didn't help.

But yeah, in truth he basically played to almost exactly what you'd expect from that contract. The shape of the production was a bit odd, but we got what we bargained for in total.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Rob said:

There's still a sizeable portion of the Cubs fanbase that thinks the Soriano contract was a massive bust. He'd just come off a 46 HR / 41 SB season, and people expected him to replicate that. Nevermind that his first season with the Cubs was actually better than the 40/40 campaign, his estimation among fans never improved. His constant injuries didn't help.

But yeah, in truth he basically played to almost exactly what you'd expect from that contract. The shape of the production was a bit odd, but we got what we bargained for in total.

Agreed. And I am sure what a GM did almost 20 years ago has zero affect on what a different GM does now. Even if it was an epic fail (and as has been pointed out, it wasn’t) there is no reason to use that as an excuse not signing  long term deals now. Never mind since then, Jed has been a part of even organization who signed Heyward, Lester, Darvish and Swanson to deals of 6 or more years. After the bad Heyward contract Darvish and Swanson were signed. 

[thawv]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

It matters some if he is a starter. But even as just a pen arm, if no one thinks he can start, he gets more than 2/$12M.. 

Honestly, I don't know.  I think it's going to be around 6 million AAV as a reliever.