Shota Imanaga Expected To Decline Qualifying Offer From Cubs

[Derwood]

Taillon is more valuable to the Cubs than whatever they could get for him in a trade

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Proven Veteran said:

Why is everyone so confident that Cease is still a TOR pitcher? I'd be nervous about signing him to big money.

It's a good question, but just about all of the indications we have are thankfully that it's a combo of bad luck and bad defense:

- Except for '23 his peripherals are consistently stellar.  This should generally be your north star.  There are a small number of exceptions but when in doubt chase guys who do well in terms of strikeouts, walks, and homeruns

- And unlike say Ben Brown it's not a situation where "yeah he struck out a ton of dudes but the guys who put it in play all smoked the ball".  Cease has pretty normal hard hit and barrel rates.  His Statcast xERA this year was 3.46, a run less than his actual ERA and ranking right in between Joe Ryan and Freddy Peralta

- Cease has had a lot of bad defense behind him for his career, including this past year.  The Padres as a whole ranked 20th, and Statcast estimates that Padres' fielders cost him specifically 5 runs.  That's about a third of a run of ERA

- That means the other two thirds of a run is sequencing.  Luckily this appears to be noise.  His peripherals are nearly identical with runners on vs bases empty (3.57 xFIP vs. 3.54).  He got hit harder with runners on, but I have a hard time justifying him magically being more hittable without that showing up in degraded strikeout, groundball, or homerun rates

There's some gray area when a guy's ERA doesn't match his peripherals, but all the usual suspects for cases where it turned out legit come up empty here.

[mk49]

I just found this.  Shota went to a pitching lab in Florida, right after the Brewers series.  Looks like his arm angle is quite a bit higher in this video.  I think his arm angle and mechanics were screwed up towards the end of the season/post season.  Maybe, he adjusted for better sweepers, and messed up the others?  I don't know.  I really hope he bounces back.  

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQRly40gPGA/

At least, he's trying to get better, which is good.

 

Edited November 20, 2025 by mk49

[Stratos]

Hopefully Shota has a decent year.  Unless he was tipping I don't really like the signing.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

Taillon is more valuable to the Cubs than whatever they could get for him in a trade

Right now he is. But at the TDL if all the Cubs starters are healthy and pitching well and if the Cubs need a platoon bat or a pen arm more than a 6th starter, Taillon is more valuable as a trade chip. While this is unlikely, I think it is more likely then the Cubs dumping him at the deadline because they aren’t competing. I expect them to be in contention. I also think it is more likely they trade him at the TDL then doing so now. Now he is needed because they don’t have Steele and probably aren’t very sure about Shota. If all are pitching well they can afford to move one. Similar to the Yankees trading Montgomery to the Cardinals for Bader. Yankees valued a bat more than another pitcher because they felt they had enough pitching. 

[BKHoo]

16 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I just found this.  Shota went to a pitching lab in Florida, right after the Brewers series.  Looks like his arm angle is quite a bit higher in this video.  I think his arm angle and mechanics were screwed up towards the end of the season/post season.  Maybe, he adjusted for better sweepers, and messed up the others?  I don't know.  I really hope he bounces back.  

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQRly40gPGA/

At least, he's trying to get better, which is good.

 

If so why didn’t the Cubs people notice that?

[mk49]

2 hours ago, Proven Veteran said:

Why is everyone so confident that Cease is still a TOR pitcher? I'd be nervous about signing him to big money.

I agree with you.  I like Cease, and he's good.  People like him, because his pitching style, the velocity and the K's.  But, considering how many games he pitched in the last 5 years, I think he will either get injured, or his velo will go down soon.  And, his ERA has been relatively high throughout his career, except for one season.  He walks a lot, and he rarely pitches 7 innings/game last year.

I don't think he's worth a long contract, which he will likely to get.  If the Cubs can get him 3~4yr, $28M AAV, that would be great, but it won't happen.

I don't think the Cubs will go for a top free agent SP, after Shota accepted the QO, but Valdez is probably the best guy to get.  Otherwise, just do a trade.  If the Tom/Jed are serious about winning and the future, they would go for Imai, but I don't think that's gonna happen.

Michael King is kind of a gamble, just like Boyd was.  But, King might have better potential (and cheaper) than Cease.  That's a big "IF" he stays healthy, though.  He only pitched great as a SP for one season.  But, he looked really good last year.

[mk49]

1 hour ago, BKHoo said:

If so why didn’t the Cubs people notice that?

I don't know what you meant.  I'm sure the Cubs people knew that he went to Florida for some help or hope.  

If you're talking about my guess about his mechanics, I would say this..  His ERA before the White Sox game was 2.40.  He looked really bad against the Sox (I mean his 4 seam wasn't even 90mph, if I remember correctly), so they or Shota really tried to fix it.  That screwed up something + maybe, fatigue.  That's my guess.  He never pitched well after that game, and they didn't have time to correct it, even though they really tried.  If they could rest him for an extra week, the thing might have been different.  Who knows? 

And, again, I'm sure the Cubs know that something went wrong after that game.  And, I hope that they believe they can fix it.  Otherwise, they didn't offer him the QO.  

Those are my guesses, and nobody knows for sure.  Only thing I know for sure is that his arm angle was lower in 2025 than 2024, and he threw more sweepers in 2025.  In the video, his arm angle was higher than his 2024.

 

I'm not saying he's going to be better next year, but I'm hoping he's gonna be better, because he already accept the QO, and he's a cub for another season.  What else can I hope for?😀

 

Edited November 20, 2025 by mk49

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

Stuff, consistency, and durability.  He's pitched 160+ IP each season since 2021 and posted 3+ fWAR in each of those seasons.

A lot of Cease's value comes from the durability, especially in an age where pitchers are often going down with injuries and TJS.  Doesn't look to have missed a start in the last 5 seasons.

He's been clearly above-average in the quality of innings he's thrown (xERA, xFIP etc), but not perfect.  Elite K/9 but below-average BB/9 and GB%.  The walks and GB% are the main differences between him and elite SP like Skubal and Yamamoto.

Framber Valdez has pitched similarly to Cease but has done it with about average K/9 and BB/9 but elite GB%.

[Cuzi]

5 hours ago, Derwood said:

Taillon is more valuable to the Cubs than whatever they could get for him in a trade

You would think we would already know this. Rewind to 2024 when the hot topic was that the Cubs were looking to trade Taillon at the deadline. Everyone was dreaming about the return the Cubs were going to get. Meanwhile I was over here saying they wouldn't get jack horsefeathers because his value on the field matches his contract so there's nothing of value there in trade. Its the same reason the Mariners weren't getting jack horsefeathers for offers on Luis Castillo. How much money these guys are owed limits the return to the point it doesn't make sense to trade them unless you really need to free up the cash, and if that's the reason a trade is made then this organization can piss right off.

Edited November 20, 2025 by Cuzi

[Geographyhater8888]

8 hours ago, mk49 said:

I agree with you.  I like Cease, and he's good.  People like him, because his pitching style, the velocity and the K's.  But, considering how many games he pitched in the last 5 years, I think he will either get injured, or his velo will go down soon.  And, his ERA has been relatively high throughout his career, except for one season.  He walks a lot, and he rarely pitches 7 innings/game last year.

I don't think he's worth a long contract, which he will likely to get.  If the Cubs can get him 3~4yr, $28M AAV, that would be great, but it won't happen.

I don't think the Cubs will go for a top free agent SP, after Shota accepted the QO, but Valdez is probably the best guy to get.  Otherwise, just do a trade.  If the Tom/Jed are serious about winning and the future, they would go for Imai, but I don't think that's gonna happen.

Michael King is kind of a gamble, just like Boyd was.  But, King might have better potential (and cheaper) than Cease.  That's a big "IF" he stays healthy, though.  He only pitched great as a SP for one season.  But, he looked really good last year.

But who really is? There’s always a bidding war tax that teams have to pay, Cubs unwillingness to meet players on their preferred $ terms is why they have a rotation full of number 3-4 starters. His peripherals were very good, he’s durable and the Padres defense was 36 runs worse than the cubs.. Is there a reason why you think his velocity will dip, like an injury? Pitch counts keep arms fresh regardless of innings.

If the Cubs refuse to shop for the Max Fried, Corbin Burnes type pitchers they’re better off with a capable number 2 starter than their current power in numbers approach in my opinion.

Edited November 20, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

If they won’t pony up for cease then what would that mean regarding a potential extension for a Cabrera/Gore acquired in a trade? Another Tucker situation? They’ve shown no willingness to pay players on their terms. 

Edited November 20, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

It's a good question, but just about all of the indications we have are thankfully that it's a combo of bad luck and bad defense:

- Except for '23 his peripherals are consistently stellar.  This should generally be your north star.  There are a small number of exceptions but when in doubt chase guys who do well in terms of strikeouts, walks, and homeruns

- And unlike say Ben Brown it's not a situation where "yeah he struck out a ton of dudes but the guys who put it in play all smoked the ball".  Cease has pretty normal hard hit and barrel rates.  His Statcast xERA this year was 3.46, a run less than his actual ERA and ranking right in between Joe Ryan and Freddy Peralta

- Cease has had a lot of bad defense behind him for his career, including this past year.  The Padres as a whole ranked 20th, and Statcast estimates that Padres' fielders cost him specifically 5 runs.  That's about a third of a run of ERA

- That means the other two thirds of a run is sequencing.  Luckily this appears to be noise.  His peripherals are nearly identical with runners on vs bases empty (3.57 xFIP vs. 3.54).  He got hit harder with runners on, but I have a hard time justifying him magically being more hittable without that showing up in degraded strikeout, groundball, or homerun rates

There's some gray area when a guy's ERA doesn't match his peripherals, but all the usual suspects for cases where it turned out legit come up empty here.

I’m not sure his spray chart looks like on contact allowed but as a pitcher who generates a lot of fly balls, PCA would fetch a lot of the balls that Merrill couldn’t. Not quite sure how significant though. 

Edited November 20, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Backtobanks]

12 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Teams almost never trade MLB for MLB at the deadline. And while SP prices are up, Taillon isn't a front line starter, and on an expiring deal. You're not looking at a lot of value. You'll get something back, sure, but if he's pitched well enough to get value, chances are the Cubs aren't just...trading him in July if their season is looking like one that ends in the playoffs or beyond. They're not going to replace him with a rookie like Wiggins at that stage, and it's very likely between OD and July that one (if not two or three) of: Shota, Horton, Steele, Boyd or new-guy are already on the shelf (remember, every member of the Cubs rotation outside of Boyd spent time on the IL). At that point the value they'd extra from Taillon in July probably won't be worth the value he can provide the team as depth or on the rotation. Too risky for the type of return you'd expect from a #4 SP on an expiring deal. 

The Cubs are almost assuredly never going to be in a position to move Taillon in July. It's this off-season and plan for the depth or he's a Cub unless they are terrible. Hoyer loves depth. He won't trade off of it at the deadline if the Cubs are good. 

Well, I agree with you if your scenario of 2-3 starters are going to be on the DL by the deadline, but that wasn't what I initially posted.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

Well, I agree with you if your scenario of 2-3 starters are going to be on the DL by the deadline, but that wasn't what I initially posted.

I understand, but it it's apart of the context. The Cubs are almost assuredly not going to trade Taillon at the deadline, and that's the point. The injury potential factors into that. Let's really figure out the pathway in which the Cubs would benefit from a Taillon trade at the deadline:

1. The Cubs need to be basically injury free in the rotation allowing them to even consider it.
2. Jaxon Wiggins has to be having a great season in Iowa and you're comfortable throwing a rookie into the playoff race in those two months.
3. One of the 20-teams he can accept a trade to, wants Jameson Taillon - he has a 10 team NTC and without a player option or some sort of sweetener, we can assume most those 10 teams will remain on a no-trade-list. This list must be submitted well before the deadline.

• This requires Jameson Taillon to be having a good enough season that teams want him, while also not so good of a season the Cubs can't trade him.

4. One of the 20-teams who wants Jameson Taillon is going to offer something to the Cubs more valuable than the pitching depth that Taillon provides

• While starting pitching is valued at the deadline, are we expecting him to bring back more, than say, Michael Soroka? Soroka brought back a Triple-A OF'er who projects as a fourth-OF'er and a 19 year old lottery ticket. That probably isn't going to be what the Cubs would value over a Taillon in depth for a playoff run. 
• Instead, what they would need is an MLB for an MLB trade and while it's not impossible (as has been brought up, Montgomery for Bader) but this is a very, very rare trade at the deadline. Made more difficult because you would need to find a team short in P's but also flush in whatever the Cubs actually need and willing to move that player. And the Cubs would need that player to help more than Taillon would to really consider it. Impossible? No, but all the less probable when all considered? Yes.

This is an incredibly narrow pathway to a trade in July that doesn't involve the Cubs being bad. Beyond that, we have a team who is signaling over and over again this offseason that depth in the rotation and pitching staff matters. You can mitigate most of these issues with a trade in the offseason. More of those 20-teams will be looking for pitching and a pitcher on an expiring contract and the Cubs will be more willing to bring back MiLB depth in the offseason when they can re-spend that $17m aav elsewhere on pitching depth to backfill. 

How likely is it the Cubs even trade him? Probably not very high! But if the Cubs still want to pair a Cabrera with a Michael King (who is being projected around the 4-year, $20m aav mark and has been connected to the Cubs multiple times over the offseason already and last offseason) which would help the roster cliff next year, trading Taillon makes sense now far more than later. 

[Bull]

23 hours ago, Cuzi said:

How many years have we been saying next year?

When is next year ever going to come?

 

So nice to meet someone who became a fan in 2015. 

[Bull]

On 11/19/2025 at 11:31 AM, ILMindState said:

The luxury tax might not even be a thing after 2027, so maybe, just MAYBE, Tommy isn't scared of that scary line this year.

The luxury tax exists primarily as an excuse for teams like the Cubs to not spend overmuch. 

If they used it as a soft cap, they will find a new softcap. 

and the only way it goes away is if teams like the Cubs wise up and create a floor/cap system limiting or eliminating deferred money. 

The chances of getting the votes for a floor are nil. The chances of getting a cap without a floor out of the players union are even less. 

My guess is we get more of the same with a limitation on deferred money.  I think the Ohtani deal made some owners really upset. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I understand, but it it's apart of the context. The Cubs are almost assuredly not going to trade Taillon at the deadline, and that's the point. The injury potential factors into that. Let's really figure out the pathway in which the Cubs would benefit from a Taillon trade at the deadline:

1. The Cubs need to be basically injury free in the rotation allowing them to even consider it.
2. Jaxon Wiggins has to be having a great season in Iowa and you're comfortable throwing a rookie into the playoff race in those two months.
3. One of the 20-teams he can accept a trade to, wants Jameson Taillon - he has a 10 team NTC and without a player option or some sort of sweetener, we can assume most those 10 teams will remain on a no-trade-list. This list must be submitted well before the deadline.

• This requires Jameson Taillon to be having a good enough season that teams want him, while also not so good of a season the Cubs can't trade him.

4. One of the 20-teams who wants Jameson Taillon is going to offer something to the Cubs more valuable than the pitching depth that Taillon provides

• While starting pitching is valued at the deadline, are we expecting him to bring back more, than say, Michael Soroka? Soroka brought back a Triple-A OF'er who projects as a fourth-OF'er and a 19 year old lottery ticket. That probably isn't going to be what the Cubs would value over a Taillon in depth for a playoff run. 
• Instead, what they would need is an MLB for an MLB trade and while it's not impossible (as has been brought up, Montgomery for Bader) but this is a very, very rare trade at the deadline. Made more difficult because you would need to find a team short in P's but also flush in whatever the Cubs actually need and willing to move that player. And the Cubs would need that player to help more than Taillon would to really consider it. Impossible? No, but all the less probable when all considered? Yes.

This is an incredibly narrow pathway to a trade in July that doesn't involve the Cubs being bad. Beyond that, we have a team who is signaling over and over again this offseason that depth in the rotation and pitching staff matters. You can mitigate most of these issues with a trade in the offseason. More of those 20-teams will be looking for pitching and a pitcher on an expiring contract and the Cubs will be more willing to bring back MiLB depth in the offseason when they can re-spend that $17m aav elsewhere on pitching depth to backfill. 

How likely is it the Cubs even trade him? Probably not very high! But if the Cubs still want to pair a Cabrera with a Michael King (who is being projected around the 4-year, $20m aav mark and has been connected to the Cubs multiple times over the offseason already and last offseason) which would help the roster cliff next year, trading Taillon makes sense now far more than later. 

Let’s start with what I agree with you about. I agree it is very unlikely Taillon gets traded, period. I also agree if the Cubs plan to add Cabrera and King, now would be the time they would trade Taillon. And finally, I agree with you that the FO has repeatedly suggested they will be adding to the staff this off season. But to me, that means they are taking from the staff now, by trading Taillon. 

Now, to where we differ.

First, if the rotation is healthy and pitching well the Cubs don’t have to worry about Wiggins. They would have 5 starters. 
I also don’t think it is that crazy for one team to want a pitcher and have a platoon bat or a pen arm they would be willing to trade. Like Monty for Bader.                                  
I do expect the Cubs to be in contention, so I think a dump trade of Taillon is less likely than trading him because they have enough starting pitching and can use help elsewhere.                                                      
While I agree with you that the Cubs getting  King and Cabrera now would make Taillon tradable now, I feel it is far less likely they add those two guys now then it is they add one guy and all the starters are healthy and pitching well at the TDL.             
Honestly, the entire discussion boils down to scenarios. When you want to make your point you use your scenerio. When banks and I want to make our point we make our scenerio. IMO all are equally possible (as in… NOT VERY POSSIBLE) so I go back to the point I started with.
I agree with you that Taillon won’t be traded. 

 

 

[Neuby]

11 hours ago, Cuzi said:

You would think we would already know this. Rewind to 2024 when the hot topic was that the Cubs were looking to trade Taillon at the deadline. Everyone was dreaming about the return the Cubs were going to get. Meanwhile I was over here saying they wouldn't get jack horsefeathers because his value on the field matches his contract so there's nothing of value there in trade. Its the same reason the Mariners weren't getting jack horsefeathers for offers on Luis Castillo. How much money these guys are owed limits the return to the point it doesn't make sense to trade them unless you really need to free up the cash, and if that's the reason a trade is made then this organization can piss right off.

The faint belief in 2024 was that the Cubs could eat the salary of guys like Bellinger/Tallion in 2024 and make them even more attractive trade candidates tipping the scales in terms of contract matching the value on the field. 

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Neuby said:

The faint belief in 2024 was that the Cubs could eat the salary of guys like Bellinger/Tallion in 2024 and make them even more attractive trade candidates tipping the scales in terms of contract matching the value on the field. 

Bellinger, since he was a rental, yes. Taillon, no.

[Neuby]

George Ofman  Via threads

 " Told Cubs were stunned Imanage accepted qualifying offer. They expected to get a draft pick.Hampers their offseason spending plans. Major blunder!!! "

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Neuby said:

George Ofman  Via threads

 " Told Cubs were stunned Imanage accepted qualifying offer. They expected to get a draft pick.Hampers their offseason spending plans. Major blunder!!! "

Has George Ofman been right about anything since Hendry was running the team?

[Post Count Padder]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Has George Ofman been right about anything since Hendry was running the team?

Yeah that's like a ghost of rumors past. 

And honestly if the entire front office was completely caught off guard by him accepting the QO, then that's pretty damning. I kinda doubt that's the case. Maybe they thought he was leaning toward declining but you have to plan for the chance he accepts.

[CubinNY]

3 hours ago, Bull said:

 

My guess is we get more of the same with a limitation on deferred money.  I think the Ohtani deal made some owners really upset. 

Any owner could have given him that contract. The Cubs apparently weren't interested in doing that, if you believe published reports.

[Bertz]

The Athletic this AM says that the team is still looking at the top of the FA SP market even after Imanaga.

Quote

The Cubs will continue to pursue a starting pitcher who can compete at the top of their rotation. It will be determined whether that addition comes through trading for a pitcher such as Edward Cabrera or signing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, a group that includes Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Ranger Suárez and Zac Gallen. But adding an impactful starting pitcher remains the goal.

Later on they did pump the brakes on the caliber of FA relievers we might expect going forward.  So my take would be that the plan is to add their impact starter and figure out the bullpen after.  I.e. if you sign Cease the bullpen needs to be filled with trades and reclamation signings, if you trade for Cabrera you can safely throw money at the pen.