Week 11: Bears at Vikings, noon on FOX

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

[Wilson A2000]

19 minutes ago, Banedon said:

I mean, I know it was just one game, and it was against the Rams, but Darnold threw 4 picks yesterday.  

He had a bad game, but 17 TDs, 2,500 yards, and a 105 rating so far this year. He had 35 TDs last year with a rating over 100. He got 3/$100 mil from the Seahawks, but the decision to move on from him because of his poor playoff performance looks questionable.

[raw]

I wonder how much different the narratives would be if things out of the Bears' control had gone differently all year. The Bears are "lucky", eking games out, avoiding losses instead of winning. 

Week 1- phantom holding call on Darnell Wright. Took away a 1st & 10 from the 12 and made it 1st & 20 from the 34. Missed a 50 yard FG. If they score a TD there, it's 24-6 if they get into the endzone there.

vs Commanders- had the phantom PI call on Loveland, went from 1st & 10 at the 21 to 1st & 20 at the 42. Got a 48-yard FG instead of a potential TD. 6-0 game went to 13-0 six plays later, could have been 17-0 vs a team that doesn't have the passing game to come back down 3 scores

vs Cincy- had the Edmunds pick 6 that was called back. And granted, he was touched, but he was touched before he actually made the catch. That would have been a 21 point lead and a potential laugher.

vs Ravens- non-PI call on Hopkins grabbing Wright's facemask while pushing off. Ravens would have punted the ball away up 1 score with plenty of time on the clock for Caleb who has shown the propensity to come thru in those situations obviously. Instead, Ravens go down, score a TD and put that game out of reach.

Yesterday- the non-facemask call on Homer (which why are you giving Homer the ball anyway?). That would have made it 1st & 10, again from the 21. A TD makes that a 17-3 game instead of 13-3. 
 

You could even include the end of half sequence vs Detroit where the half ended, only for them to call the teams back and allow Detroit to score. Would have been a 1 score game w/ the Bears getting the ball to start the 2nd. Probably still lose, but maybe a closer game.

And that's not including the stupid fumbled snaps, the bad drops, the legit penalties the Bears have self-inflicted to take away scores or turn potential 7s into 3s. This team isn't great, but I don't think we all give them credit for how close they are to being such. Maybe they need another full offseason of Ben/Caleb and reinforcements at certain roster spots, but there's a possibility that they fix the discipline, physical and mental errors; the officiating evens out a bit (already has for the most part); and Johnson, Edwards and Gordon coming back is enough to make this a team that can make a 24 Commanders level run in the playoffs.

[Wilson A2000]

16 minutes ago, raw said:

I wonder how much different the narratives would be if things out of the Bears' control had gone differently all year. The Bears are "lucky", eking games out, avoiding losses instead of winning. 

Week 1- phantom holding call on Darnell Wright. Took away a 1st & 10 from the 12 and made it 1st & 20 from the 34. Missed a 50 yard FG. If they score a TD there, it's 24-6 if they get into the endzone there.

vs Commanders- had the phantom PI call on Loveland, went from 1st & 10 at the 21 to 1st & 20 at the 42. Got a 48-yard FG instead of a potential TD. 6-0 game went to 13-0 six plays later, could have been 17-0 vs a team that doesn't have the passing game to come back down 3 scores

vs Cincy- had the Edmunds pick 6 that was called back. And granted, he was touched, but he was touched before he actually made the catch. That would have been a 21 point lead and a potential laugher.

vs Ravens- non-PI call on Hopkins grabbing Wright's facemask while pushing off. Ravens would have punted the ball away up 1 score with plenty of time on the clock for Caleb who has shown the propensity to come thru in those situations obviously. Instead, Ravens go down, score a TD and put that game out of reach.

Yesterday- the non-facemask call on Homer (which why are you giving Homer the ball anyway?). That would have made it 1st & 10, again from the 21. A TD makes that a 17-3 game instead of 13-3. 
 

You could even include the end of half sequence vs Detroit where the half ended, only for them to call the teams back and allow Detroit to score. Would have been a 1 score game w/ the Bears getting the ball to start the 2nd. Probably still lose, but maybe a closer game.

And that's not including the stupid fumbled snaps, the bad drops, the legit penalties the Bears have self-inflicted to take away scores or turn potential 7s into 3s. This team isn't great, but I don't think we all give them credit for how close they are to being such. Maybe they need another full offseason of Ben/Caleb and reinforcements at certain roster spots, but there's a possibility that they fix the discipline, physical and mental errors; the officiating evens out a bit (already has for the most part); and Johnson, Edwards and Gordon coming back is enough to make this a team that can make a 24 Commanders level run in the playoffs.

Eh, the Bears could also have lost a few of these close games and then the narrative would be the Bears are not just lucky and good but just average or bad

[Tryptamine]

3 hours ago, Brian707 said:

He did hit Burden vs Dallas but yes he needs to hit these deep balls. And the WR group needs to stop dropping passes

I believe they're going to have 9 official drops according to that stat in the last two weeks, but that stat only takes into account the most ridiculously catchable balls being dropped. It's probably closer to 15.

[Rex Buckingham]

If Jaylon Johnson comes back and can actually be like 90% of himself for the rest of the season, our defense will improve by leaps and bounds... I think we beat the Packers at Soldier Field, probably lose at Lambeau, plus beat the Browns (assuming we never allow Myles Garrett to be one-on-one with Theo Benedet) and the Steelers and that's a 10 win season

[gflore34]

For the most part, in the face of nearly constant blitzes, the OL kept the Vikings off Caleb.  Maybe that's why he keeps holding on to the ball waiting for something big to open up downfield.  I'm certain the Steelers are going to come in and be blitz happy as well.  I'd like to see Caleb just take the layups, they'll be there.

[raw]

1 hour ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Eh, the Bears could also have lost a few of these close games and then the narrative would be the Bears are not just lucky and good but just average or bad

Yeah, but my point is none of those games you can say the Bears SHOULD have lost based on how the games went for most of the 60 minutes, except maybe the Giants game, and even then the Bears did knock out their QB to give themselves a chance. 

[raw]

6 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

For the most part, in the face of nearly constant blitzes, the OL kept the Vikings off Caleb.  Maybe that's why he keeps holding on to the ball waiting for something big to open up downfield.  I'm certain the Steelers are going to come in and be blitz happy as well.  I'd like to see Caleb just take the layups, they'll be there.

I don't think the Steelers are super blitz heavy. Vikings blitzed 78% of the snaps yesterday. Nobody has ever blitzed that much in league history. 

I also feel like Ben has adjusted to Caleb. I don't think he's even calling much short stuff, unless it's a designed screen, at this point. He knows Caleb isn't going to throw it quick and short and is playing to Caleb's strength of pushing the ball down the field in that 15-25 yard window. 

[UMFan83]

Has no bearing on next week's game but I thought it was wild that apparently the Steelers are 1-12 as a franchise in Chicago.  The record is crazy but also only the 14th meeting in Chicago for 2 teams that started playing each other in 1934.

Edited November 17, 2025 by UMFan83

[The_Achiever]

I hope Rodgers isn't healthy enough to play on Sunday.  I know he's been shaky lately, and this could be an opportunity to basically end his career like they did with Favre, but I'll always be scared of him coming to Soldier Field and leaving with a W.  

Even though it would be thoroughly satisfying to beat him on his way out, I'd rather take my chances with the backup who doesn't own us.  

[Wilson A2000]

 

[UMFan83]

 

 

[WrigleyField 22]

5 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

 

 

Bears fraud alert! 

 

But you can't be frauds when you don't sit atop your division. 😎

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

 

 

Between this and all the Vikings' screwiness the last few years it feels like DVOA is getting flabbergasted a lot.  Makes you wonder if there's something about modern football driving it (proliferation of fourth down?).

[Brian707]

4 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Has no bearing on next week's game but I thought it was wild that apparently the Steelers are 1-12 as a franchise in Chicago.  The record is crazy but also only the 14th meeting in Chicago for 2 teams that started playing each other in 1934.

I think the lone win was in 1995 vs the Wanny lead Bears

[UMFan83]

9 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Bears fraud alert! 

 

But you can't be frauds when you don't sit atop your division. 😎

Yeah I don't really care about this, I just thought it was interesting.  Even if they actually aren't 7-3 good, winning brings positive vibes and can only be positive for the future.  Plus this partially erases 30 years of inexplicable unlucky Bears losses we've all experienced.  We were due for some positive luck.

The only issue is if the winning causes Poles to believe that this team is a contender as assembled and has a Washington-like offseason.

[BigSlick]

I think football has changed so dramatically even in just the last 5 years that we’re going to see a lot of weirdness with stats that were developed and calibrated in the last 20 years.

its impossible to overestimate how much things like: changes in how the passing game is called by refs, the proliferation of ultra-accurate and ultra-long kickers, changes in kick off rule (now everyone gets the ball roughly 10 yards closer to the end zone before) ((and I hate this)), and strategic changes (far more 4th down and 2 point conversion attempts). 
 

If things continue in this direction we may see punting almost disappear completely. Every drive would result in a score, a turnover, or a turnover on downs. Honestly I would hate that but I’m a Football Boomer. 

[Brian707]

You want to get nuts?

Bears beat Steelers

Bucs beat Rams

Bears play the Eagles for the #1 seed on Black Friday

[Banedon]

Commanders cut their kicker and signed Jake Moody off of the Bears practice squad.  Hope everybody's feeling good about Cairo.

[jersey cubs fan]

1 hour ago, BigSlick said:

If things continue in this direction we may see punting almost disappear completely. Every drive would result in a score, a turnover, or a turnover on downs. Honestly I would hate that but I’m a Football Boomer. 

And yet yesterday we had 12 punts in the game. And 10 guys have punted more than 40 times this year. 
there’s a half dozen teams with high powered offenses capable of just completely foregoing punts on 4th down. But there will always be teams that count on their defenses to carry them through a competitive season, not to mention the 10 or so completely incompetent teams that can’t just expose their defenses to such terrible field position every drive. 

punting is nowhere near being gone. 

[Old Style]

9 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

If Jaylon Johnson comes back and can actually be like 90% of himself for the rest of the season, our defense will improve by leaps and bounds... I think we beat the Packers at Soldier Field, probably lose at Lambeau, plus beat the Browns (assuming we never allow Myles Garrett to be one-on-one with Theo Benedet) and the Steelers and that's a 10 win season

This team is winning 11 games and making the playoffs. 

[gflore34]

Caleb' at a 59.7% (194-325) completion rate, conservatively, over the last two weeks alone, you can add probably upwards of 10 balls that should have been caught.  Adding those 10 puts him at 62.7 with, at least one more TD.  It'd be really nice if Caleb' receivers would stop dropping balls and help out with a tough catch or two.

Edited November 18, 2025 by gflore34

[Geographyhater8888]

13 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Yeah I don't really care about this, I just thought it was interesting.  Even if they actually aren't 7-3 good, winning brings positive vibes and can only be positive for the future.  Plus this partially erases 30 years of inexplicable unlucky Bears losses we've all experienced.  We were due for some positive luck.

The only issue is if the winning causes Poles to believe that this team is a contender as assembled and has a Washington-like offseason.

I’m fairly confident Ben Johnson has final say over roster and personnel decisions. 25th in DVOA checks out at the moment too. They’re a very good bad team at the moment that’s a product of schedule sequencing. 

Edited November 18, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Bears fraud alert! 

 

But you can't be frauds when you don't sit atop your division. 😎

Bears would be unranked in the BCS despite their glamorous record.