Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Matt Trueblood, the head writer on this website

How many Matts are on this website? 😆

Ah. So how does one become a contributor? If I stick on this site for a few more years, perhaps I will have the credentials and respect to write serious articles. I'm planning to go to either Columbia University or  UChicago--the latter gives me some proximity to Wrigley.

In regards to the topic, I really think that the contract will be short-term--one or two years for maybe $22M AAV, or somewhere around there. I just don't think that the Cubs acknowledge long-term stability or would like to pay nine figures, which they're haunted at ever since Heyward.

I haven't heard from you awhile after I was dismissed by my erratic GO/AO calculation--what do you think about Imai's contract?

Edited December 23, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Guest]

4 hours ago, DrCub said:

If the offseason continues to head in the direction the last few have, and the Cubs cheap out again, I’m done with this team.  

Well, it's the Chicago Cubs. Zenith and nadir, always fluctuation. But how about we find a beauty in that? How about we embrace the Chicago Cubs for who they are and hope for a better future? Should we dwell in the present or should we find something beyond it, find hope, and find meaning?

Edited December 23, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[JHBulls]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

I just don't get Hoyer. The division is there for the taking, the Brewers aren't going to go on a historically great 40+ game stretch again. 

If you understand the Ricketts family, Then you already understand Hoyer. 

Any other President of Baseball ops guy given the task of winning, but constantly failing every offseason and that person would have been run out of town by the owners. But Hoyer’s instructions from the owners is to stay within the budget, don’t overspend and he’s rewarded with a new contract.  He’s a yes man for owners who love the job he’s doing. 

[Jason Ross]

This is coming from those coming from the Yankees side of things. 

[ILMindState]

We got 1 impact arm in the farm system and don't want to sign any impact arms to a long term deal. That's an interesting strategy. 

[ILMindState]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

This is coming from those coming from the Yankees side of things. 

I wonder who the mystery team is

[Jason Ross]

Just now, ILMindState said:

I wonder who the mystery team is

If there is a mystery team, it's probably someone like the Giants who are acting like the they don't have money. 

Another option is that the big, $150m offers aren't coming right now and that the Cubs will be able to have their cake (not offer that kind of deal) and eat it too (sign Imai). 

[CubinNY]

What’s to stop him from staying in Japan and trying again in a year (if there is baseball next year).

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

If there is a mystery team, it's probably someone like the Giants who are acting like the they don't have money. 

Another option is that the big, $150m offers aren't coming right now and that the Cubs will be able to have their cake (not offer that kind of deal) and eat it too (sign Imai). 

I really think that the Yankees could be closing this deal... according to the NPB, Imai views Chicago as "not a preferred destination," as this article mentions. I think that your strategy could play out, but Hoyer is a Ricketts puppet and he will never make the first move, which is a large gamble for the Cubs--this strategy is aimed at cost-efficiency rather than team efficiency. I hate being a pessimist, but I think that the Yankees will integrate Imai and the Cubs will continue to sign bench players and 30-year-old 4-seamers.

With the Giants... I thought that they could have been an option three days ago, but they haven't shown much inclination towards him; other than Schoenfield from six days ago, who assessed the Giants and determined them Imai's best fit (Source 2), I don't think that the Giants are as hectic about Imai as the Yankees. The Cubs simply won't consider him if his value is too high (Source 3). 

I think the Yankees will make a decisive move in a few days if they are truly interested in securing Imai. If not, perhaps the Cubs have a chance in determining his value, but it is a risky game to be fiscally conservative and expect major breakthroughs next year.

Jason, if you had to give me a percent chance of Imai being a Cub, what percent would you give?

Edited December 24, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

I really think that the Yankees could be closing this deal... according to the NPB, Imai views Chicago as "not a preferred destination," as this article mentions. I think that your strategy could play out, but Hoyer is a Ricketts puppet and he will never make the first move, which is a large gamble for the Cubs--this strategy is aimed at cost-efficiency rather than team efficiency. I hate being a pessimist, but I think that the Yankees will integrate Imai and the Cubs will continue to sign bench players and 30-year-old 4-seamers.

With the Giants... I thought that they could have been an option three days ago, but they haven't shown much inclination towards him; other than Schoenfield from six days ago, who assessed the Giants and determined them Imai's best fit (Source 2), I don't think that the Giants are as hectic about Imai as the Yankees. The Cubs simply won't consider him if his value is too high (Source 3). 

I think the Yankees will make a decisive move in a few days if they are truly interested in securing Imai. If not, perhaps the Cubs have a chance in determining his value, but it is a risky game to be fiscally conservative and expect major breakthroughs next year.

Jason, if you had to give me a percent chance of Imai being a Cub, what percent would you give?

Jack Curry of YES network, which is their team owned network just said the Yankees weren't likely to be the team signing him. Aaron Boone said the team hasn't even met with him. The Yankees are telling you how interested they are. 

Imagine that the Craig Counsell said the Cubs hadn't met with him and Marquee Network said the Cubs weren't signing him. Would you immediately believe the Cubs were the front runner? We don't get get to talk out of both sides of our mouths. Everyone here is freaking out because of a Dave Kaplan (someone who hasn't been a top Cubs news information for 15+ years now) report. I think we on know the answer here. 

I don't have a percentage for you. I think today the Cubs should be seen as one of the most likely destinations for whatever that's worth. 

Just as an aide; SI is a terrible source now a days. I wouldn't use it as legitimate. It was sold off and is just a relic of a name now.  Their source is "Yankees Source" on that article. No one nationally has picked up on that, as well, his agent is Scott Boras. You pick Boras because money is your end game, not a destination. 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Jack Curry of YES network, which is their team owned network just said the Yankees weren't signing him. Aaron Boone said the team hasn't even met with him.

The Yankees are telling you how interested they are. 

True; however, he also mentioned that  there could possibly be some last-minute changes, which emphasize possible volatility if the Yankees have to potentially pivot. Furthermore, the Yankees are more unpredictable due to the fact that these statements may, despite Boone's comments that are explained in this article, emphasize a contradiction--the Yankees may be deliberately decreasing their threat level because they have been pursuing Imai for a long time during this offseason. (The same could indeed be said with Curry's statement.)

True, the Yankees may not seem like an obvious threat, but they could immediately pivot and make a daring move because they can count on the Cubs' near-apathy for nine-figure contracts. It's just the factor of predictability--and even if the Yankees don't want Imai, what happens if the Cubs are unable to secure a satisfactory amount? He will be escorted back, which will be a detriment to our team. So, amidst all this uncertainty, we are waiting for Kaplan to clear things--and I don't think Imai will be with us if this trend continues... This is a startlingly tranquil offseason, and the Cubs haven't made many moves in regards to Imai either and aren't as vocal. Just like the U.S. after World War I (give the money to Germany, Germany gives money to Europe, Europe gives money to the U.S. with interest), Ricketts gives a budget to Hoyer, Hoyer complies with the budget and is tempted to go under, and the organization is able to pocket more money.

This conversation is admittedly fun--I have been talking about Imai incessantly in the real world. 🙂

 

Edited December 24, 2025 by The Cubs Dude

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Jack Curry of YES network, which is their team owned network just said the Yankees weren't likely to be the team signing him. Aaron Boone said the team hasn't even met with him. The Yankees are telling you how interested they are. 

Imagine that the Craig Counsell said the Cubs hadn't met with him and Marquee Network said the Cubs weren't signing him. Would you immediately believe the Cubs were the front runner? We don't get get to talk out of both sides of our mouths. Everyone here is freaking out because of a Dave Kaplan (someone who hasn't been a top Cubs news information for 15+ years now) report. I think we on know the answer here. 

I don't have a percentage for you. I think today the Cubs should be seen as one of the most likely destinations for whatever that's worth. 

Just as an aide; SI is a terrible source now a days. I wouldn't use it as legitimate. It was sold off and is just a relic of a name now.  Their source is "Yankees Source" on that article. No one nationally has picked up on that, as well, his agent is Scott Boras. You pick Boras because money is your end game, not a destination. 

Got it. Well, coincidentally, I used it on the second one, but I'll make sure not to use it in the future. I used to love SI so much...

What sources do you recommend for baseball?

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, The Cubs Dude said:

Got it. Well, coincidentally, I used it on the second one, but I'll make sure not to use it in the future. I used to love SI so much...

What sources do you recommend for baseball?

Too many to list. People like Jeff Passan, Ken Rosenthal, and Jon Heyman are usually on it. They have a reputation to maintain. Locally, Sharma and Mooney of the Athletic, Jesse Rogers, Bruce Levine, and Michael Cerami all are pretty reliable, though will sometimes put opinions in. Every team has their versions of this; find those people as well.

Others, like Bob Nightengale, Fracys Romero, and Hector Gomez all have reps that are in the gutter and they consistently are doing damage to themselves. Rep matters. 

Beyond that, just ask if it passes a sniff test. Does it seem real? Does the account on X have people who you trust who follows is? Are they attaching their name to it or are they hiding behind anonymity? Are they just making opinion sound like reporting? 

[ILMindState]

I think the Cubs are his preferred team but there's a mystery team out there with a better offer for more years. We're hearing the leaks about the Cubs not offering enough because Boras wants that news out there hoping they'll increase their offer. They won't. Then on like Jan 10 we'll hear news that the Cubs weren't that close and wouldn't go past 3 years. 

[Bertz]

Quote

Barring a last-minute reversal, a league source said Chicago is not seen as a likely landing spot for Shota Imanaga, the Japanese pitcher who will likely receive a contract worth at least $100 million, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

This is not to clown on Mooney or to say these situations will end up exactly the same, but this is from four days before the Cubs and Imanaga hooked up for their deal.

Also thought this was interesting from Eric Longenhagen's chat at Fangraphs last week

Quote

 

asdf: What’s with the lack of rumors about Murakami/Okamoto (and the Song news came out of nowhere)? Do international signs just have fewer leaks, or are their markets worse than expected.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s often just one or two agents who have the big NPB guys and our newsbreakers in the States have fewer lines of communication into the camps of players who don’t speak their language.

 

I think we just have to accept that we're probably not going to know too much until right before this goes down.

[Bertz]

I think what we *can* say with confidence is that even if the Cubs aren't going hard in Imai (very possible!) their top SP target doesn't want to budge until there's market clarity.

[Hot Sauce]

I'm as optimistic about the Cubs signing Imai as I am trusting that a fart is going to be a fart. Yea, there's that tiny voice in the back of my mind warning me that it could turn out badly, but I'm still trusting it's going to be a fart.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

8 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

This is coming from those coming from the Yankees side of things. 

Yanks have Cole coming back, Rodon, Fried, and Schittler. They're in a much better position with SP than most teams. Not sure what this guy is on about.

[Geographyhater8888]

5 hours ago, Hot Sauce said:

I'm as optimistic about the Cubs signing Imai as I am trusting that a fart is going to be a fart. Yea, there's that tiny voice in the back of my mind warning me that it could turn out badly, but I'm still trusting it's going to be a fart.

Does the expected fart represent no Imai and does the tiny voice in your head fearful that you’ll soil yourself represent the Cubs signing Imai, catching you by surprise?

Edited December 24, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

12 hours ago, ILMindState said:

We got 1 impact arm in the farm system and don't want to sign any impact arms to a long term deal. That's an interesting strategy. 

Not really. Taillon, Stroman and Shota tier free agents are dime of dozen every winter available on 3-4 year deals. They’re likely content with Boyd, Shota, Taillon, Horton, Rae and perhaps Gallen/Steele and they’ll find their replacements next winter. 

[Bertz]

7 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Yanks have Cole coming back, Rodon, Fried, and Schittler. They're in a much better position with SP than most teams. Not sure what this guy is on about.

Yeah they *can* add a SP with Cole and Rodon not being ready for OD, but they don't need one.  Last I read is that they have enough cash for one move of consequence, and Cashman is just waiting out the market, with Bellinger as Plan A.

[chibears55]

13 hours ago, Bertz said:

I think what we *can* say with confidence is that even if the Cubs aren't going hard in Imai (very possible!) their top SP target doesn't want to budge until there's market clarity.

My guess is Hoyer probably has an offer on the table with low years(4-6) and likely with options and Imai(Boras), is waiting to see if another team (of his preference)will swoop in with something more and guarenteed. 

Im a bit surprise he hasn't made a decision by now with the holidays coming up, but i guess he can wait til the final day January 2nd and make it then after the holidays. 

[Dfan25]

8 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

My guess is Hoyer probably has an offer on the table with low years(4-6) and likely with options and Imai(Boras), is waiting to see if another team (of his preference)will swoop in with something more and guarenteed. 

Im a bit surprise he hasn't made a decision by now with the holidays coming up, but i guess he can wait til the final day January 2nd and make it then after the holidays. 

If he isn’t making visits , then yeah he can wait until the 2nd . I think the Cubs will end up with Gallen TBH . While Nightendale obviously jumped the gun with his tweet earlier , i doubt  he was completely making things up

 The AAV he mentioned n that tweet seems about right ( QO value 22 mil ). I think 4 / 88 or something like that  After that they will probably sign Ramon Urías and call it an offseason 

Edited December 24, 2025 by Dfan25

[ToolDRT]

9 hours ago, Hot Sauce said:

I'm as optimistic about the Cubs signing Imai as I am trusting that a fart is going to be a fart. Yea, there's that tiny voice in the back of my mind warning me that it could turn out badly, but I'm still trusting it's going to be a fart.

This is why I always smell something when reading your posts. 

[Hot Sauce]

Just now, ToolDRT said:

This is why I always smell something when reading your posts. 

Given the context, I appreciate that!