Cubs 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Bertz]

I believe all the opt outs to this point have been exactly what was expected.  Possible exception of Ha Seong Kim?  Though he's not really relevant to us.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

As expected , some of the bigger names have started to opt out of deals . Diaz , Suarez / Bregman all free agent now..

I do wonder if the Cubs would consider going bigger in the bullpen , considering they are coming off  a playoff year , and on paper looks difficult to add in a meaningful way on position players ?

 

I know they aren’t signing Diaz , but an older guy like Suarez or trying to buy low on Devin Williams ERA ?  Williams also has the Counsell connection as well . 
 

If they don’t pick up Kittredge , I think the possibility they go with a bigger bullpen move increases . 

I'd rather they put that money into SP upgrades.  My preference is they decline on Shota and sign 2 TORP SP,  Pick up Rea's option for depth.

FA TORP, FA TORP, Boyd, Horton, Taillon is a good rotation, with Rea as a swingman and Steele coming on at some point in the year.  If by miracle everyone is healthy when Steele is back they could always use Horton in relief, or put any of those guys in the pen for a period to manage their workloads if necessary.

[mk49]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

I'd rather they put that money into SP upgrades.  My preference is they decline on Shota and sign 2 TORP SP,  Pick up Rea's option for depth.

FA TORP, FA TORP, Boyd, Horton, Taillon is a good rotation, with Rea as a swingman and Steele coming on at some point in the year.  If by miracle everyone is healthy when Steele is back they could always use Horton in relief, or put any of those guys in the pen for a period to manage their workloads if necessary.

IMO, there are only four available (Valdez, Cease, Bieber and King).  Of course, depending on how they perform next year, they could be better or worse than Shota.  And, they'll be more expensive than Shota.  Also, I don't think the Cubs could actually sign two out four free agents.  I feel lucky, if they can sign one them.  If King can stay healthy, he would be the one I want.  Valdez is probably too expensive for the Cubs.  Bieber was out most of 2024 and 2025.  Cease had a bad year in 2025, but he'll still be expensive.  I guess Cease and King will be awesome.

Oh, I almost forgot to mention this Japanese SP, Imai.  I watched a few videos on Youtube, and he looked good.  He'll probably be better than Shota, but will cost more.  Don't know how much more.  OK, I just checked, and it says "Some experts estimate his contract will be in the nine-figure range, with figures like $140 million to $150 million being suggested."  Some even say over 200 million.

Trade is probably easier to get a good TOR SP.  But, the easiest is keeping Shota.  Except for Sep and Oct 2025, he pitched very well for two seasons.  I just don't like to see Shota having a great season (like he did last year) with another team, and new pitchers we get don't perform better than Shota. 

I agree that they should keep Rea for $6m or whatever.  His option wasn't that expensive.  I have a feeling Jamo will have a great season next year, if he stays healthy.  Not so sure about Boyd.  He performed better than expected in 2025.  He won't be as good, and maybe, get injured, eventually.  I try not to expect much from Steele.  When he was good, he was great, but it didn't last that long.  Obviously, I'm hoping he comes back strong.  For Horton, I'd be happy, if you pitches 150+ inning with ERA around 3.20.

Well, only time can tell.

 

Edited November 4, 2025 by mk49

[Geographyhater8888]

I just hope the Cubs roll with Cassie because they see genuine potential in him instead of just a guy who’ll net you 2-3 wins at a bargain. 

Edited November 4, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[muntjack]

Michael King doesn't do it for me.  Another guy throwing 93 to slot at the top of the rotation seems less than ideal. 

[Bertz]

20 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Michael King doesn't do it for me.  Another guy throwing 93 to slot at the top of the rotation seems less than ideal. 

I'd be very excited about King as the second of two additions.  Maybe Shota leaves and we do something like Joe Ryan and King?  Maybe we do King and a bat?

But yeah as much as I like King and you look at him and he's clearly Tommy Hottovy coded, a guy who missed three months with a shoulder injury and then was pretty bad from there on is not someone who can be your big offseason fish.  Not at this part of the win curve.

[Rcal10]

11 hours ago, mk49 said:

IMO, there are only four available (Valdez, Cease, Bieber and King).  Of course, depending on how they perform next year, they could be better or worse than Shota.  And, they'll be more expensive than Shota.  Also, I don't think the Cubs could actually sign two out four free agents.  I feel lucky, if they can sign one them.  If King can stay healthy, he would be the one I want.  Valdez is probably too expensive for the Cubs.  Bieber was out most of 2024 and 2025.  Cease had a bad year in 2025, but he'll still be expensive.  I guess Cease and King will be awesome.

Oh, I almost forgot to mention this Japanese SP, Imai.  I watched a few videos on Youtube, and he looked good.  He'll probably be better than Shota, but will cost more.  Don't know how much more.  OK, I just checked, and it says "Some experts estimate his contract will be in the nine-figure range, with figures like $140 million to $150 million being suggested."  Some even say over 200 million.

Trade is probably easier to get a good TOR SP.  But, the easiest is keeping Shota.  Except for Sep and Oct 2025, he pitched very well for two seasons.  I just don't like to see Shota having a great season (like he did last year) with another team, and new pitchers we get don't perform better than Shota. 

I agree that they should keep Rea for $6m or whatever.  His option wasn't that expensive.  I have a feeling Jamo will have a great season next year, if he stays healthy.  Not so sure about Boyd.  He performed better than expected in 2025.  He won't be as good, and maybe, get injured, eventually.  I try not to expect much from Steele.  When he was good, he was great, but it didn't last that long.  Obviously, I'm hoping he comes back strong.  For Horton, I'd be happy, if you pitches 150+ inning with ERA around 3.20.

Well, only time can tell.

 

I would put Ranger Suarez ahead of Shota, as well. But I agree they aren’t getting two FA pitchers. If they let Shota go I would like to see Cease signed. Then sign a bat. Maybe the Japanese 3rd baseman who hits right handed. Maybe trade for Bohm or if the Phillies release him, sign him. This opens up all the young bats to be used in a trade for another TOR/MOR controlled starting pitcher. I am not suggesting trading all of them. I am saying they all can be talked about. Depending on who that pitcher is, you adjust the price. I am talking about guys like Gore, Ryan, Lopez, Alcantara, Cabrera, and to a crazy not going to happen extent, Skubal. I am sure there are others I haven’t thought of. Rays are always open for business, so Rasmussen, McClanahan, or Baz maybe. Seattle has several young pitchers too. A lesser trade for Keller?(I think if I was going to do that I would just keep Shota unless the Cubs staff thinks he is a guy they can work with). 

Edited November 4, 2025 by Rcal10

[Tryptamine]

I'm going on record,  letting Shota go to FA is incredibly moronic for a team that already needed 1 impact pitcher.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm going on record,  letting Shota go to FA is incredibly moronic for a team that already needed 1 impact pitcher.

Well, to be fair, they still have the option of the QO. I was on the record of saying it was an easy pickup a few weeks ago, but Bertz did a good job of showing the level of pitcher who got the kind of money Shota's option would have put him on...and he probably fell short of that level. 

The Cubs rotation isn't entirely barren right now either. Horton, Boyd, and Taillon are all under contract, Steele will get tendered and be back by May 1st if not sooner. Really, they have four guys even sans Shota if he does leave and there is no QO offered. The market has a decent amount of SP's. 

It may change the math that the Cubs grab 2 SP's instead of one, but they have a ton of money to spend to even get back to the disappointing 2025 levels. So I think they'll ultimately be fine.

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

Well, to be fair, they still have the option of the QO. I was on the record of saying it was an easy pickup a few weeks ago, but Bertz did a good job of showing the level of pitcher who got the kind of money Shota's option would have put him on...and he probably fell short of that level. 

The Cubs rotation isn't entirely barren right now either. Horton, Boyd, and Taillon are all under contract, Steele will get tendered and be back by May 1st if not sooner. Really, they have four guys even sans Shota if he does leave and there is no QO offered. The market has a decent amount of SP's. 

It may change the math that the Cubs grab 2 SP's instead of one, but they have a ton of money to spend to even get back to the disappointing 2025 levels. So I think they'll ultimately be fine.

That money needed to go to the offense and bench. Now they need to spend the majority of their budget just trying to get back to the mediocre team they were 2/3 of the season. 

[Petrey10]

Valdez or cease 

Bichette for 3b

couple bullpen arms

 

and I’m real good with the offseason honestly

 

 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

That money needed to go to the offense and bench. Now they need to spend the majority of their budget just trying to get back to the mediocre team they were 2/3 of the season. 

The Cubs have nearly $80m to spend this offseason just to get back to last year which was well below the LT. They can easily spend $25m on Imai/Cease, $20m on another SP and still have $35m to upgrade the bench and RP's. If they are willing to approach the LT or even slightly over (optimistic I know) then they have even more. They have proven time and time again they can build a BP on a shoestring budget. 

They're going to be fine. Even without Shota. Yes, they probably can't buy two SP's and a big bat, but there isn't a bat I'd spend on, to be honest if we're eliminating ourselves from the Tucker competition. They had the 9th best dRC+ in the 2nd half and had some bad luck. I think they can create a great pitching team and hit well enough that if they don't get a big time bat they will be alright.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs have nearly $80m to spend this offseason just to get back to last year which was well below the LT. They can easily spend $25m on Imai/Cease, $20m on another SP and still have $35m to upgrade the bench and RP's. If they are willing to approach the LT or even slightly over (optimistic I know) then they have even more. They have proven time and time again they can build a BP on a shoestring budget. 

They're going to be fine. Even without Shota. Yes, they probably can't buy two SP's and a big bat, but there isn't a bat I'd spend on, to be honest if we're eliminating ourselves from the Tucker competition. They had the 9th best dRC+ in the 2nd half and had some bad luck. I think they can create a great pitching team and hit well enough that if they don't get a big time bat they will be alright.

You will not have Tucker's bat and going into 2026 assuming you're going to get anything resembling PCA's 2025 numbers is horrible assumption as well. It's also incredibly unlikely you get the same production out of catcher. They're going to need substantial upgrades just to get their offense up to par with last year and it wasn't a very good offense to begin with. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

You will not have Tucker's bat and going into 2026 assuming you're going to get anything resembling PCA's 2025 numbers is horrible assumption as well. It's also incredibly unlikely you get the same production out of catcher. They're going to need substantial upgrades just to get their offense up to par with last year and it wasn't a very good offense to begin with. 

Assuming Pete Crow-Armstrong can't repeat a 109 wRC+ is a "horrible" assumption? Based on...what, exactly? His wOBA was .10 points under his xWOBA and he made better swing choices in the 2nd half of the season (the issue was mechanical). Sure, I don't expect him to be an MVP candidate for 2 months, but getting to a 109 wRC+ is...super doable. He's always going to be a streaky hitter, but please, there is no data-driven argument that he can't repeat a similar overall line. There are different ways to skin a cat, so if the argument is "he had a really good 2 months" he can find a different way to get to the same value and there's nothing really in his data that says he cannot.

The Cubs finished with the 5th most runs scored as well. What would be a "good" offense? We're jumping the shark if the Cubs offense wasn't good last year. Even when they weren't hitting well, their dRC+ was very good (expected data, and competition level factored into wRC+). I don't expect a top-5 offense losing Tucker. I do think they'll probably be a bit better than people expect them to be offensively in 2026 without a massive addition. 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

You will not have Tucker's bat and going into 2026 assuming you're going to get anything resembling PCA's 2025 numbers is horrible assumption as well. It's also incredibly unlikely you get the same production out of catcher. They're going to need substantial upgrades just to get their offense up to par with last year and it wasn't a very good offense to begin with. 

bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

[CubinNY]

13 hours ago, Stratos said:

I'd rather they put that money into SP upgrades.  My preference is they decline on Shota and sign 2 TORP SP,  Pick up Rea's option for depth.

FA TORP, FA TORP, Boyd, Horton, Taillon is a good rotation, with Rea as a swingman and Steele coming on at some point in the year.  If by miracle everyone is healthy when Steele is back they could always use Horton in relief, or put any of those guys in the pen for a period to manage their workloads if necessary.

That would be my preference as well, but they won't get two of the four best pitchers on the market unless their bargaining strategy and overall SOP change significantly.  

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Bertz said:

bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

I mean excluding the first two months where PCA and Tucker were both playing like MVPs, the Cubs scored the 17th most runs the rest of the year. That sounds pretty mediocre to me.

[17 Seconds]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean excluding the first two months where PCA and Tucker were both playing like MVPs, the Cubs scored the 17th most runs the rest of the year. That sounds pretty mediocre to me.

i imagine a lot of offenses look mediocre if you take out the best 2 months

[Bertz]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I mean excluding the first two months where PCA and Tucker were both playing like MVPs, the Cubs scored the 17th most runs the rest of the year. That sounds pretty mediocre to me.

Really?  "If you exclude the times they were really good they were slightly below average?"  Why would anyone take that seriously?

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Bertz said:

Really?  "If you exclude the times they were really good they were slightly below average?"  Why would anyone take that seriously?

What is more relevant for what we should expect, The most recent 4 months of data or the months 5 and 6 where a lot of the heavy lifting was done by a guy who is no longer on the team?

[Tryptamine]

Genuinely surprised the White Sox picked up Robert's option, not because I think they shouldn't have, but more I truly believed cheap ass Reinsdorf wouldn't pay it.

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

What is more relevant for what we should expect, The most recent 4 months of data or the months 5 and 6 where a lot of the heavy lifting was done by a guy who is no longer on the team?

The Cubs were +45 wRAA (wOBA converted to runs basically) in April/May, 3rd in the league.  Take out Tucker's 15 and they're still 5th.  The Cubs were 4th in wRC+ in September with Tucker mostly AWOL.  I do NOT think that the Cubs are a top 5 offense without Tucker, but this arbitrary endpoints nonsense is nonsense.

Also, if we are going to play the arbitrary endpoints game, shouldn't you want Shota gone?  He was an absolute wet fart down the stretch.

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

That would be my preference as well, but they won't get two of the four best pitchers on the market unless their bargaining strategy and overall SOP change significantly.  

I kinda agree that it's too hard to thread the needle of picking up half of the top of the free agent pitching market, especially given Jed's uber amounts of....we'll call it patience, to be generous. 

So go sign a bat, even if it's an overpay, even if it's not a perfect fit. None of these pitchers are slam dunks, really any 9 digit player on the market is going to come with question marks. But signing a big bat to round out the line up unlocks the ability to use the young bats to trade for a pitcher, which is, theoretically, a much bigger market of quality pitchers than the 4 that generally get named as free agents. 

[Tryptamine]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The Cubs were +45 wRAA (wOBA converted to runs basically) in April/May, 3rd in the league.  Take out Tucker's 15 and they're still 5th.  The Cubs were 4th in wRC+ in September with Tucker mostly AWOL.  I do NOT think that the Cubs are a top 5 offense without Tucker, but this arbitrary endpoints nonsense is nonsense.

Also, if we are going to play the arbitrary endpoints game, shouldn't you want Shota gone?  He was an absolute wet fart down the stretch.

Shota also had a season and a half of performance history. With that said, if his velocity being down has nothing to do with injury/mechanics then it's more justifiable. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Not surprised on Shota, thought it was a real possibility with his strikeouts and velocity dropping during the season. The Japanese pipeline is definitely dead, seems like everyone is going to be a dodger.