Cubs 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mk49]

8 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

There's only so many teams that can do that, though.

The Dodgers are most likely out. The Yankees are also most likely out with Cole, Fried, and Rodon. The Phillies are most likely out with Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, and Nola.

Figure the Red Sox, Giants, Mets, Braves will be in play. Probably a couple other surprises.

But look how many pitchers we are talking about here. You've got Suarez, Valdez, Cease, King, Woodruff, Bieber, all of which I would put above Imanaga, and then you have a handful of guys on Imanaga's level, potentially including Imanaga himself. There are plenty of arms to go around.

I was mostly thinking Mets.  I think they need a good SP more than the Cubs, and they would most likely pay more than the Cubs.  I don't agree with most of those you mentioned, though.  They could be better (or worse) than Shota, but most likely, not significantly better.

Out of your list, I want Suarez, King or maybe Cease.  Maybe, Shota will pitch like he did last year or the 1st half of this year.  I know it's my wishful thinking, but it could happen.  

[mk49]

1 minute ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Never got the impression he was ever interesting in staying long term. Disappointed he could not have had a better season but oh well. So it does not surprise me. 

I'll be really surprised, if he comes back.  Never liked him much, but appreciated his offense, when he was good, though.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

They need to focus on stuff and strikeouts with their adds on the pitching staff .

Shouldn't they just be focused on preventing runs and acquiring the best pitchers possible?   Doesn't really matter if it's via adding K's or groundballs, or reducing walks or HR etc

[JHBulls]

Top 4 highest revenue last year. Probably around the mark again this year. It would be nice to see ownership spend on a roster capable of going further in the postseason. 

[Geographyhater8888]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Shouldn't they just be focused on preventing runs and acquiring the best pitchers possible?   Doesn't really matter if it's via adding K's or groundballs, or reducing walks or HR etc

Framber Valdez will do. Only 8.8 K’s per 9 and top 5 in GB%.

Edited October 18, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

I’m fine with Happ walking after 2026 but if you let Suzuki walk where will the right handed slug come from? 

[Bertz]

37 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m fine with Happ walking after 2026 but if you let Suzuki walk where will the right handed slug come from? 

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

No stars but it's an almost preposterously deep FA class for RHH bats.  

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

No stars but it's an almost preposterously deep FA class for RHH bats.  

I like Suzuki over the other outfielders. Do they project Rojas to be ready by 2027 when Nico walks too? 

Edited October 18, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m fine with Happ walking after 2026 but if you let Suzuki walk where will the right handed slug come from? 

You don't make offseason decisions only with one year in mind(otherwise you'd trade all the prospects all the time), but you also can't solve next year's problems before they get here.  Maybe Matt Shaw is the 130 wRC+/30 HR pace he was after the all star break,  maybe they sign Alonso, maybe Amaya is healthy and goes nuts, maybe there isn't a season at all with the CBA expiring.

[CubinNY]

11 hours ago, JHBulls said:

Top 4 highest revenue last year. Probably around the mark again this year. It would be nice to see ownership spend on a roster capable of going further in the postseason. 

You have to remember that the profits are split five ways. 

[JHBulls]

30 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

You have to remember that the profits are split five ways. 

That’s true. Just a shame the Ricketts still spend like this is a small market. 

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m fine with Happ walking after 2026 but if you let Suzuki walk where will the right handed slug come from? 

He'll be 32 the first season if we extend/resign him, and he'll probably want 4 years or so.   Let him walk.  We got his prime seasons, great signing by Jed.  Jed's been very good on his spending on his larger contracts.  Extending Happ and Nico, signing Imanaga, Dansby, Seiya.  Taillon's been solid.  Bellinger and Stroman were good contracts.

This is why it sucks to trade a guy like Cam Smith.  You don't know if he's going to turn into a good player or not, but you know he's not going to age like milk on your watch while earning a gazillion dollars.

I'll take Shaw over Bregman too.  You take Bregman on his contract last year, but he's probably going to want something more longterm now.  He's also been playing in Houston and Boston, notoriously good parks for RHB so I assume his stats are inflated a bit.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

You have to remember that the profits are split five ways. 

Yeah and most of them probably don't give to 2 effs about the Cubs winning or losing and just want as much money as possible, which is exactly how they seem to run the team.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Bertz said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes

No stars but it's an almost preposterously deep FA class for RHH bats.  

Finding a good corner OF is the easiest of any position, thankfully.  Not worried about it.

I think they should see what they have in Caissie.  Maybe Alcantara can breakout but I have serious doubts hitting-wise.  I think Caissie has a good chance he can replace one of Happ/Seiya just fine, so then we can find another corner OF in free agency to replace the other.  We also have Ethan Conrad but who knows how that goes.

 

[Stratos]

On 10/17/2025 at 2:41 PM, Cuzi said:

Do we really believe that Shota, if the Cubs decline their side of the option, would accept his player option?

He's 32 years old. I find it hard to believe even in a down season he can't guarantee himself more than 2/30.

Since he's from Japan I have some doubts that Shota has ever been through a velo program.  I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in throwing 93 in spring training wherever he's playing.  It's also pretty hard for him to do any worse with his fly ball rate than he did this year, there's room for improvement there.

[chibears55]

9 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m fine with Happ walking after 2026 but if you let Suzuki walk where will the right handed slug come from? 

Suzuki had a career year for HR but his Slg and OPS was down from previous two years, I'd be surprise if he reaches 30 HRs again. 

They'll need to find a RH power bat in the OF after 2026 to go with PCA and probably Caissie.

 

 

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Suzuki had a career year for HR but his Slg and OPS was down from previous two years, I'd be surprise if he reaches 30 HRs again. 

They'll need to find a RH power bat in the OF after 2026 to go with PCA and probably Caissie.

 

 

His xwOBA was up. Which is more predictive. In fact, it was his career high. His BABIP was ,50 points under, despite having a better than career average hard hit%, pull rate, and barrel rate. 

Why exactly do you think that?

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

Since he's from Japan I have some doubts that Shota has ever been through a velo program.  I wouldn't be surprised if he comes in throwing 93 in spring training wherever he's playing.  It's also pretty hard for him to do any worse with his fly ball rate than he did this year, there's room for improvement there.

The Cubs already tried to change him into 2025. I don't think the answer is velo. The Cubs dropped his arm slot, my guess, is to add to the sweeper. Didn't work, it left his fastball (high ride and needed to get to the top 3rd) sit more middle third. 

I think Shota is what Shota is. That's okay. His fastball at his velo plays top third, But it dropped in location due to a drop of arm slot. 

[Bertz]

32 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs already tried to change him into 2025. I don't think the answer is velo. The Cubs dropped his arm slot, my guess, is to add to the sweeper. Didn't work, it left his fastball (high ride and needed to get to the top 3rd) sit more middle third. 

I think Shota is what Shota is. That's okay. His fastball at his velo plays top third, But it dropped in location due to a drop of arm slot. 

Probably worth noting it, along with his velo, dropped more after his IL stint.

2024 Velo - 91.7

2024 Arm Angle - 39.6

2025 pre-IL velo - 91.2

2025 pre-IL arm angle - 36.9

2025 post-IL velo - 90.7

2025 post-IL arm angle - 35.3

Both numbers were already on the move before his IL stint (though his velo was slight enough you could wonder about the weather), but you do have to wonder if the hamstring borked his mechanics a bit and an offseason reset is a viable opportunity to clean them up.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Probably worth noting it, along with his velo, dropped more after his IL stint.

2024 Velo - 91.7

2024 Arm Angle - 39.6

2025 pre-IL velo - 91.2

2025 pre-IL arm angle - 36.9

2025 post-IL velo - 90.7

2025 post-IL arm angle - 35.3

Both numbers were already on the move before his IL stint (though his velo was slight enough you could wonder about the weather), but you do have to wonder if the hamstring borked his mechanics a bit and an offseason reset is a viable opportunity to clean them up.

He dropped his arm slot before. I do think the issue with his fastball and splitter were tied to the arm slot. It's really hard to get on top of the fastball when the arm slot drops. 

He was over 40 degrees last year. He never came close to where he was last year: 

But yeah. his velo drop should be noted, I don't want to go entirely against that.

[mk49]

Thanks for the interesting info about Shota.  His command was worse this year, too, and that's probably caused by those changes.  I think he's going to be better next year, although I don't think he'll be as good as last year.

Edited October 19, 2025 by mk49

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Suzuki had a career year for HR but his Slg and OPS was down from previous two years, I'd be surprise if he reaches 30 HRs again. 

They'll need to find a RH power bat in the OF after 2026 to go with PCA and probably Caissie.

 

 

If that’s what we call a down a year then I’ll take it.

[Geographyhater8888]

12 hours ago, Stratos said:

He'll be 32 the first season if we extend/resign him, and he'll probably want 4 years or so.   Let him walk.  We got his prime seasons, great signing by Jed.  Jed's been very good on his spending on his larger contracts.  Extending Happ and Nico, signing Imanaga, Dansby, Seiya.  Taillon's been solid.  Bellinger and Stroman were good contracts.

This is why it sucks to trade a guy like Cam Smith.  You don't know if he's going to turn into a good player or not, but you know he's not going to age like milk on your watch while earning a gazillion dollars.

I'll take Shaw over Bregman too.  You take Bregman on his contract last year, but he's probably going to want something more longterm now.  He's also been playing in Houston and Boston, notoriously good parks for RHB so I assume his stats are inflated a bit.

I still don’t know where Rojas fits into this. Is he projected to be ready to take Nico’s spot in 2027? 

[Bertz]

56 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I still don’t know where Rojas fits into this. Is he projected to be ready to take Nico’s spot in 2027? 

After faceplanting at Tennessee he seems to have fallen a little behind that pace.  Though probably not a ton.

I'd guess, even assuming Rojas has another big year next year, that going into 2026 2B has someone ahead of him on the depth chart.  But I'd expect that person to be leapfroggable.  Whether that is one of the more advanced but less talented kids (Triantos or Ramirez) or via positional flexibility (a Willi Castro or Gavin Lux type).

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

After faceplanting at Tennessee he seems to have fallen a little behind that pace.  Though probably not a ton.

I'd guess, even assuming Rojas has another big year next year, that going into 2026 2B has someone ahead of him on the depth chart.  But I'd expect that person to be leapfroggable.  Whether that is one of the more advanced but less talented kids (Triantos or Ramirez) or via positional flexibility (a Willi Castro or Gavin Lux type).

Far cry from the farm Theo had. You’re more knowledgeable on this subject than I am so does this at all open the door for perhaps paying a premium price for maybe Bo Bichette to play third base while trading Nico? Jed already tried this with Bergman and they’re in a more favorable spot with the LT.
 

When picking a middle ground between contention and auditioning the young assets then Rojas would be a nice trade chip if we’re stuck waiting on his development and the alternative is a utility infielder with limited upside, unless they plan on extending Nico. Extremely underwhelming if they go that route unless Shaw and Cassie pop and they have the flexibility to be patient.

Edited October 19, 2025 by Geographyhater8888