Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

[Eeyore]

In Japan, apparently, they know how to wear sunglasses.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

It was still the right thing to do though even if it didn't work out.  Jackson Merrill is 3x the player Happ is and he laid down a bunt just a few innings before, it's time to play winning baseball 

Ian Happ fWAR: 2.8
Jackson Merril fWAR: 3.0

Ian Happ wRC+: 116
Jackson Merril wRC+: 116

I'm not very good at math, but that isn't "three times" the player. That seems like, exactly as good as the other.

Maybe you have Happ bunt, maybe you don't - some players just aren't good at it and by bunting you put yourself in an even worse position than the swing, but for the love of god, stop the Ian Happ hate.

[UMFan83]

how's ESPN gonna cut off Eddie Vedder singing the 7th inning stretch?

[Jason Ross]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

how's ESPN gonna cut off Eddie Vedder singing the 7th inning stretch?

[Outshined_One]

Having Happ bunt in front of Kyle Tucker is also not a particularly great idea at the moment, either.

Frankly, if the roles were reversed, you'd probably have a better argument.

[BigSlick]

oh my god this is my first opportunity to see the score.... go cubs!!! i'm gonna be on pins and needles until the end of the game

[Illiterate Scholar]

Miller was likely going to come in if Busch got to 3rd with less than 2 outs. Totally fine with Happ not bunting 

[PeanutPunch33]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Ian Happ fWAR: .28
Jackson Merril fWAR: 3.0

Ian Happ wRC+: 116
Jackson Merril wRC+: 116

I'm not very good at math, but that isn't "three times" the player. That seems like, exactly as good as the other.

Maybe you have Happ bunt, maybe you don't - some players just aren't good at it and by bunting you put yourself in an even worse position than the swing, but for the love of god, stop the Ian Happ hate.

Yes, he's been hurt a lot this year.  His stats as a 21 year old rookie last year are better than Happ's best season.  He's a way, way better player.  That isn't even an insult to Happ.  Merrill is an up and coming star 

And in any event, if you think they are the "same" player, then one of them shouldn't be so selfish as to not play winning baseball and do the little things needed to win 

Edited September 30, 2025 by PeanutPunch33

[chopsx9]

Vedder is a lead singer in a Hall of Fame band...right?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Pomeranz throwing BP hoping they dont pull one

[UMFan83]

6 more outs....the 8th will probably be the toughest.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Yes, he's been hurt a lot this year.  His stats as a 21 year old rookie last year are better than Happ's best season.  He's a way, way better player.  That isn't even an insult to Happ.  Merrill is an up and coming star 

Jackson Merril did have a very good year last year! Jackson Merril was just as good as Ian Happ *this* year. How many players have had statistically good outlier years and then never replicated them? 

Even last year, that would require Jackson Merril to be a 9 win player. He was a 5.3 win player. Happ is consistently 3-high 3 wins. He's not even "two times" the player. At his best, he's been about 1.5 wins or so better. But we don't have any data to suggest that's going to be the norm. In 2025, they've been nearly identical. 

Here's another data point:

xwOBA - Happ: .363 and Merril - .360

We don't need to be hyperbolic. 

[Eeyore]

I would have put money on getting, at least, one "daggum" out of this guy. 😞

[UMFan83]

Keller, Thielbar, Kittredge.  Which 2 do you ideally go with to close it out?

[CubinNY]

The shadow is the Cubs best player right now. 

[Outshined_One]

Miller is filthy,  My goodness.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Pete is really lucky his error didnt cost us. What a brutal game.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

Keller, Thielbar, Kittredge.  Which 2 do you ideally go with to close it out?

Kittredge and Keller, but Keller scares me a bit.

[UMFan83]

PCA's article had me pumped up today.  Hope he practices what he preaches about not letting things get to him when they aren't going well.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

Miller is filthy,  My goodness.

They should turn down the difficuluty on Mason Miller from HoF to like, veteran, just to be fair.

[DrCub]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

Miller is filthy,  My goodness.

I’m wondering how in the world does he have a 2.63 ERA?  Who in the hell is hitting this guy? 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Pete is really lucky his error didnt cost us. What a brutal game.

I still say that error was more on Nico than Pete. But he's definitely been a turd at the plate.

[chibears55]

Gotta get through this inning and top of of their order

[Manny Trillos Brother]

Fermin is an absolutely must get right here.

 

[UMFan83]

Getting the leadoff guy is huge here as the 9 hitter with the top of their order due up.