Mets (McLean) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 9/25/25, 6:40pm

[Rcal10]

56 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Gotta think it's Horton and Taillon for the first 2 games if Horton is anywhere near healthy.

If it goes to game 3 I'd go all hands on deck.  Could be Rea and Assad each once through the order.  Then maybe Soroka and/or Civale and hand it over to the pen.  Could also use an opener.

Padres are predominantly RHB so they'll consider who matches up.

I would bet anyone it isn’t Horton and Taillon in game 1 and 2. 

[Stratos]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would bet anyone it isn’t Horton and Taillon in game 1 and 2. 

I forgot about Boyd haha.  

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I could still see Shota starting. The leash would just be incredibly short.

Taillon has been pitching really well.   I can't see how it's not Horton-Boyd- Taillon unless one of them is hurt.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Gotta think it's Horton and Taillon for the first 2 games if Horton is anywhere near healthy.

If it goes to game 3 I'd go all hands on deck.  Could be Rea and Assad each once through the order.  Then maybe Soroka and/or Civale and hand it over to the pen.  Could also use an opener.

Padres are predominantly RHB so they'll consider who matches up.

Padres are worse against left handed pitchers than right handers. And the main bat they traded for to help against let handed pitching will not be available for the WC round. 
 

[Irrelevant Dude]

45 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Taillon has been pitching really well.   I can't see how it's not Horton-Boyd- Taillon unless one of them is hurt.

I would swap Horton and Boyd just to give Horton that extra day for whatever his minor back issue is.  Boyd, then Horton, then take your pick of Taillon or Imanaga for Game 3.  It looks like it may cool off in Chicago mid next week, so Imanaga could become more pitchable if the wind is likely to be blowing in.

[Irrelevant Dude]

3 hours ago, Connor McConnor said:

He went 3-4 with a home run.  He is the least of the problems with this team. 

He did, and I agree there are bigger things to worry about right now, but I will continue to argue that Shaw's current approach at the plate is not sustainable.  He is selling out to try to make hard contact and his feet are all over the place.  He is going to occasionally run into some hits, but he is still very much a work in progress at the plate.

[Brian707]

Ok let's just clinch HFA so I don't have to think about the Cubs til Tuesday. 

I think Counsell does Boyd game 1. If they win put Shota out there game 2. 

[Geographyhater8888]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Padres are worse against left handed pitchers than right handers. And the main bat they traded for to help against let handed pitching will not be available for the WC round. 
 

Padres don’t hit a lot of of home runs as a team so the pitching staff might not be as much of a concern. It’s power hitting playoff contending  lineups that have smoked Cubs pitching ass year long. 

 

Edited September 26, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

I don’t think its that out of line to assume someone isn’t giving their all when they don’t consistently perform at the level they have shown that can. Chill out. 

He’s not slacking off eating KFC and pounding beers in the locker room like Josh Beckett and the 2011 Redsox in the middle of a collapse. He throws  low 90’s fastball without any devastating off speed stuff. If he doesn’t have pin point command a power hitting lineup like the Mets will tee off.

Edited September 26, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

Hence why Yamamoto, a superior TOR starter was paid $325 million and Shota was paid $52 million. You get what you pay for and Shota has exceeded his expectations. He’s fine for what he is, just not someone you want to rely on as a TOR pitcher. 

Edited September 26, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

He did, and I agree there are bigger things to worry about right now, but I will continue to argue that Shaw's current approach at the plate is not sustainable.  He is selling out to try to make hard contact and his feet are all over the place.  He is going to occasionally run into some hits, but he is still very much a work in progress at the plate.

His feet are essentially no different in September than they were in August, so I don't think data supports the idea that his footwork at the plate is an issue. It's fractionally different (like a quarter of an inch on way or another). He has moved a little up in the box, but I don't think there is anything mechanically an issue.

If we want to talk approach, he's chasing less in September (27.9%) than August (37.9%) and less overall by around 6% in the zone. His contact rate is a little down, but still at nearly 78% so it's fine. Teams are giving him far less first pitch strikes (almost 20%) so seeing him drop the o-swing% is good.

His quality of contact is down over the last month, but pitchers have adjusted to his super-pull heavy approach lately, and changed how they're attacking him; much more low and away. Left is August, right is Sept. 

 

So I don't think this is anything to do with footwork. It's a natural progression of pitchers reacting to his new approach. It's much harder to pull pitches in that zone than it is the other. This is likely why his hard hit% is down over the last month; his new approach is very much geared to take advantage of his mediocre EV rates and one of the ways you can beat that is by letting a pull-heavy hitter roll over on those pitches.

If there's a positive it's that a lot of the really bad contact in September was early-to-mid month. Over his last 27 PA's the EV's are shooting way up again. And here's the positive, compare his pitch% heat map to the two above. Remember, left is August and right is September, where the league has adjusted: 

Notice how it mirrors September? What this suggests is that Shaw has readjusted to how he's being attacked. He's letting the ball travel more, almost 3 inches (he's making contact deeper in the box compared to the plate than he was early in the month). His intercept has dropped from 8.6 inches in front of the plate early in the month to 5.5 inches over his last week. That's a massive shift and not an accident. How do you get to pitches on the outer end better? Well, you let it travel more, exactly what he's doing. And go figure, the EV and batted ball quality has once again shot back up.

Baseball is truly a cat-and-mouse game in which both sides are constantly trying to evolve to surprise the other side. The long story short is that I don't really have concerns about how he's hitting or his approach. He's refining his swing decisions even as pitchers are offering less strikes, and we're seeing a refinement on his ability to hit that pitch low-and-away despite the pull-heavy approach. 

[Geographyhater8888]

15 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

His feet are essentially no different in September than they were in August, so I don't think data supports the idea that his footwork at the plate is an issue. It's fractionally different (like a quarter of an inch on way or another). He has moved a little up in the box, but I don't think there is anything mechanically an issue.

If we want to talk approach, he's chasing less in September (27.9%) than August (37.9%) and less overall by around 6% in the zone. His contact rate is a little down, but still at nearly 78% so it's fine. Teams are giving him far less first pitch strikes (almost 20%) so seeing him drop the o-swing% is good.

His quality of contact is down over the last month, but pitchers have adjusted to his super-pull heavy approach lately, and changed how they're attacking him; much more low and away. Left is August, right is Sept. 

 

So I don't think this is anything to do with footwork. It's a natural progression of pitchers reacting to his new approach. It's much harder to pull pitches in that zone than it is the other. This is likely why his hard hit% is down over the last month; his new approach is very much geared to take advantage of his mediocre EV rates and one of the ways you can beat that is by letting a pull-heavy hitter roll over on those pitches.

If there's a positive it's that a lot of the really bad contact in September was early-to-mid month. Over his last 27 PA's the EV's are shooting way up again. And here's the positive, compare his pitch% heat map to the two above. Remember, left is August and right is September, where the league has adjusted: 

Notice how it mirrors September? What this suggests is that Shaw has readjusted to how he's being attacked. He's letting the ball travel more, almost 3 inches (he's making contact deeper in the box compared to the plate than he was early in the month). His intercept has dropped from 8.6 inches in front of the plate early in the month to 5.5 inches over his last week. That's a massive shift and not an accident. How do you get to pitches on the outer end better? Well, you let it travel more, exactly what he's doing. And go figure, the EV and batted ball quality has once again shot back up.

Baseball is truly a cat-and-mouse game in which both sides are constantly trying to evolve to surprise the other side. The long story short is that I don't really have concerns about how he's hitting or his approach. He's refining his swing decisions even as pitchers are offering less strikes, and we're seeing a refinement on his ability to hit that pitch low-and-away despite the pull-heavy approach. 

How do you project PCA as hitter for next season and beyond? That power surge from August of 24-July of 25 was an aberration but what are thought? Can he ever be a 115 wRC+ guy consistently? Worse? Better?

[WhyCantWeWin]

Does anyone think they dont pick up Shotas option now? Hes got a ton of red flags

[Jason Ross]

23 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

How do you project PCA as hitter for next season and beyond? That power surge from August of 24-July of 25 was an aberration but what are thought? Can he ever be a 115 wRC+ guy consistently? Worse? Better?

I think he's a streaky hitter. Most hitters have peaks and vallyes regardless of how good they are (Juan Soto is as generational as they come and he's prone to them as well, for example). But I think Pete runs with the winds of success and failure more than most. He's young, emotional, and when I see those things they tend to breed that. 

I'm not sure he's ever going to be a 115 wRC+ hitter on the year, though. Part of this is because of who he is; he's terrible against LHP, and I'm not sure that'll change. Unlike many platoon hitters, he's so wildly good defensively and on the bases that you can't just platoon him. What we would see with someone else who might only be decent defensively or play a less premium position is that a team would shield him; say, Michael Busch against LHP. But Pete gets dragged down. His 124 wRC+ against RHP is offset by a 60 wRC+ against LHP. He had the lowest wRC+ (as a left handed hitter) against LHP who had at least 180 PA's on the year...because of his defense.

So those things together are going to create what we have. I think he's a great hitter against RHP. And defensively, he's too good to bench against lefties. So he'll probably have years where he's around a 105 wRC+ on the year, but I also don't think that numbers tells us a lot without all of the context.

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Does anyone think they dont pick up Shotas option now? Hes got a ton of red flags

Probably. Even if he's struggling right now, he's a $13.5m AAV pitcher. That's really cheap comparatively. You don't need him to be a star at that number. 

[Geographyhater8888]

17 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think he's a streaky hitter. Most hitters have peaks and vallyes regardless of how good they are (Juan Soto is as generational as they come and he's prone to them as well, for example). But I think Pete runs with the winds of success and failure more than most. He's young, emotional, and when I see those things they tend to breed that. 

I'm not sure he's ever going to be a 115 wRC+ hitter on the year, though. Part of this is because of who he is; he's terrible against LHP, and I'm not sure that'll change. Unlike many platoon hitters, he's so wildly good defensively and on the bases that you can't just platoon him. What we would see with someone else who might only be decent defensively or play a less premium position is that a team would shield him; say, Michael Busch against LHP. But Pete gets dragged down. His 124 wRC+ against RHP is offset by a 60 wRC+ against LHP. He had the lowest wRC+ (as a left handed hitter) against LHP who had at least 180 PA's on the year...because of his defense.

So those things together are going to create what we have. I think he's a great hitter against RHP. And defensively, he's too good to bench against lefties. So he'll probably have years where he's around a 105 wRC+ on the year, but I also don't think that numbers tells us a lot without all of the context.

The MVPete phenomenon just seemed too good be true and unfortunately was. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Does anyone think they dont pick up Shotas option now? Hes got a ton of red flags

Interfering question. Velo is down a bit too.

[Bertz]

Because you have to make option decisions right away there's very little chance Shota goes anywhere IMO. 

Like I could see a situation where the team loses the Tucker bidding and you're left wishing you could roll some of that money over to a second rotation slot, but the Shota decision has to be made ~2 months before Tucker's decided.

[Soul]

Still no starter listed for the game this afternoon.

[Brian707]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Probably. Even if he's struggling right now, he's a $13.5m AAV pitcher. That's really cheap comparatively. You don't need him to be a star at that number. 

If his price continues to be cheap why would they let him wak?

PTR loves shopping at Dollar General

Edited September 26, 2025 by Brian707

[Brian707]

1 minute ago, Soul said:

Still no starter listed for the game this afternoon.

Gambling sites saying Rea

[Geographyhater8888]

7 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

If his price continues to be cheap why would they let him wak?

PTR loves shopping at Dollar General

Zero percent chance he walks. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Zero percent chance he walks. 

I wouldn’t say zero chance. I am more in line with Bertz comment “very little chance”, but there is a chance. 

Edited September 26, 2025 by Rcal10

[gflore34]

Sucks the Cubs couldn't win this one, does setup the Mets falling on their faces in Miami which would be awesome and hilarious.  Alcantara going tonight for the Marlins, he's been pretty good of late.

[squally1313]

Tucker in the lineup today