Cubs (Assad) vs Reds (Littell): 9/20/25, 5:40pm

[JHBulls]

Another horsefeathers showing. Can the Brewers please win tonight, so the last three nights can feel like less of a missed opportunity? 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Can't believe Cleveland is just a game back of Detroit. Yikes.

[Chicago Al]

28 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Can't believe Cleveland is just a game back of Detroit. Yikes.

Riding a 10 game winning streak… Must be nice to have one of those.

[BKHoo]

57 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Can't believe Cleveland is just a game back of Detroit. Yikes.

Now the Reds are a game back of the Mets and the final spot (thanks in part to the Cubs).

[Soul]

Way to build momentum after clinching a playoff slot guys.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Chicago Al said:

Riding a 10 game winning streak… Must be nice to have one of those.

I guess it's kinda nice to know that without Tucker. Seiya, or PCA hitting we're still about a .500 team.   That might not change any time soon though.

I think we probably need 2 of the 3 to hit to have a deep playoff run.  Unless Moises et al can step up at DH.  Our depth would be solid if Castro was hitting.

 

[Chicago Al]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

I guess it's kinda nice to know that without Tucker. Seiya, or PCA hitting we're still about a .500 team.   That might not change any time soon though.

I think we probably need 2 of the 3 to hit to have a deep playoff run.  Unless Moises et al can step up at DH.  Our depth would be solid if Castro was hitting.

 

We absolutely need PCA and Seiya to heat up. I don’t know how I feel about Seiya man, I mean, he’s just not the same hitter he was in the first half. Doesn’t he have about 4 homeruns and 20ish RBI’s in his last 60 games? 

[Papa Cub]

9 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

How can a team that is going to win 90 games feel so consistently bad?

Will they win 90?? Obviously, the statistics would show that they would. However, the Reds and Mets are fighting for their playoff lives every single game, so I’m not feeling good about the Cubs winning maybe one of these next four games (if any) and the cardinals are a rival. So with their cruise control, “ho hum” attitudes, I’m concerned about reaching 90+ and putting the Padres out of reach. The most important part of all this that concerns me as a fan is the lack of consistency & lack of momentum they will have going into October. They’re a capable team, but just wayyy too inconsistent I feel. 

[Rcal10]

10 hours ago, Chicago Al said:

Riding a 10 game winning streak… Must be nice to have one of those.

I bet Guardians fans would love for their team to have the record the Cubs have and not have to worry about a 10 game winning streak to possibly make the playoffs. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Papa Cub said:

Will they win 90?? Obviously, the statistics would show that they would. However, the Reds and Mets are fighting for their playoff lives every single game, so I’m not feeling good about the Cubs winning maybe one of these next four games (if any) and the cardinals are a rival. So with their cruise control, “ho hum” attitudes, I’m concerned about reaching 90+ and putting the Padres out of reach. The most important part of all this that concerns me as a fan is the lack of consistency & lack of momentum they will have going into October. They’re a capable team, but just wayyy too inconsistent I feel. 

Deep breathe papacub. If you watched any other team I am sure at some point you would say they are also very inconsistent. If this season has proved anything it is the Cubs have been very consistent through the entire year. Maybe not a particular part of their team, but in end results they have played very consistent baseball as far as wins and loses goes. A few decent runs and then .500 ball the rest of the time. They will be fine. What is happening right now has no bearing on what happens the end of September into October. Momentum is a good start by a pitcher. They are a virtual lock to play the Padres. Love it to be at home, which they still have a great chance of making that happen. Just relax and let the season finish. Whatever they do in the playoffs will not be a result of what happens from now until the end of the season. (Unless they do blow a 4 game lead with 7 to play-which I do not expect them to do) And even if they did it is still SD but on the road. 

[Geographyhater8888]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Deep breathe papacub. If you watched any other team I am sure at some point you would say they are also very inconsistent. If this season has proved anything it is the Cubs have been very consistent through the entire year. Maybe not a particular part of their team, but in end results they have played very consistent baseball as far as wins and loses goes. A few decent runs and then .500 ball the rest of the time. They will be fine. What is happening right now has no bearing on what happens the end of September into October. Momentum is a good start by a pitcher. They are a virtual lock to play the Padres. Love it to be at home, which they still have a great chance of making that happen. Just relax and let the season finish. Whatever they do in the playoffs will not be a result of what happens from now until the end of the season. (Unless they do blow a 4 game lead with 7 to play-which I do not expect them to do) And even if they did it is still SD but on the road. 

It’d be a bad look to lose home field advantage though. With Suzuki and PCA crawling since the all star break and the Kyle Tucker question, I’m not sure how they’ll pull off a deep playoff run. The issue is the teams ceiling at the moment, It’s a tail of 2 halves with this team and the second half iteration just leaves a lot to be desired. Streakiness and getting hot comes in handy In the playoffs.

Edited September 21, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

49 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

It’d be a bad look to lose home field advantage though. With Suzuki and PCA crawling since the all star break and the Kyle Tucker question, I’m not sure how they’ll pull off a deep playoff run. The issue is the teams ceiling at the moment, It’s a tail of 2 halves with this team and the second half iteration just leaves a lot to be desired. Streakiness and getting hot comes in handy In the playoffs.

But, AGAIN, no playoff team is ending the season strong. Even right now, Cubs have lost 3 in a row. But their record the last 10 is 6-4. Padres are 5-5 over the last 10. Padres lost on Friday to a team that will probably lose 100 games this year. They finish with the Brewers and Dbacks. No playoff team, with the exception of the Phillies has played any better over the last 50 games than the Cubs. None better then last 10. Pick an end point. No one is lighting it up. Even the teams chasing the Mets aren’t exactly charging. I get it, they need guys they count on too hit and pitch well. And right now we worry about that. But I am sure all the other teams say the same thing. Hiw well can Machado, Merrill, and Tatis be hitting and Cease, King and Pivetta be pitching if the Padres aren’t winning consistently? My guess is they are struggling too. Or someone is because they aren’t playing well. 
I agree with you, it would be awful if they lost home field. But I don’t think they will. Since you used ASB as a point of reference below are the rices if the teams fighting for the WC since the ASB:

Cubs 31-28, Mets 25-33, Dodgers 30-28, Padres 32-27, Reds 29-29, Dbacks 31-27. Someone has to win in rd 1. 

Edited September 21, 2025 by Rcal10

[Geographyhater8888]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But, AGAIN, no playoff team is ending the season strong. Even right now, Cubs have lost 3 in a row. But their record the last 10 is 6-4. Padres are 5-5 over the last 10. Padres lost on Friday to a team that will probably lose 100 games this year. They finish with the Brewers and Dbacks. No playoff team, with the exception of the Phillies has played any better over the last 50 games than the Cubs. None better then last 10. Pick an end point. No one is lighting it up. Even the teams chasing the Mets aren’t exactly charging. I get it, they need guys they count on too hit and pitch well. And right now we worry about that. But I am sure all the other teams say the same thing. Hiw well can Machado, Merrill, and Tatis be hitting and Cease, King and Pivetta be pitching if the Padres aren’t winning consistently? My guess is they are struggling too. Or someone is because they aren’t playing well. 
I agree with you, it would be awful if they lost home field. But I don’t think they will. Since you used ASB as a point of reference below are the rices if the teams fighting for the WC since the ASB:

Cubs 31-28, Mets 25-33, Dodgers 30-28, Padres 32-27, Reds 29-29, Dbacks 31-27. Someone has to win in rd 1. 

That’s all true. I can point to the Cubs SOS over the last month to explain their solid record, and of course you can point to other teams losing series to bad teams and that’s a valid point. My issue here is the back of the players cards. The lack of star power gives me uncertainty over whether or not Suzuki and PCA will ever regain their pre all star break form or at least tread water like Busch, the status of Tucker and of course Boyd’s peripherals catching up to him. You could say this about the Brewers too, but in regards to some of the other teams there’s less question marks surrounding what their core players are capable of playing their best baseball. The great defense won’t prevent home runs which has been a huge issue for the pitching staff. Suzuki has to do a 180 quickly and we’ll need a healthy Tucker to get hot, which again is an unknown.

Edited September 21, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

53 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

That’s all true. I can point to the Cubs SOS over the last month to explain their solid record, and of course you can point to other teams losing series to bad teams and that’s a valid point. My issue here is the back of the players cards. The lack of star power gives me uncertainty over whether or not Suzuki and PCA will ever regain their pre all star break form or at least tread water like Busch, the status of Tucker and of course Boyd’s peripherals catching up to him. You could say this about the Brewers too, but in regards to some of the other teams there’s less question marks surrounding what their core players are capable of playing their best baseball. The great defense won’t prevent home runs which has been a huge issue for the pitching staff. Suzuki has to do a 180 quickly and we’ll need a healthy Tucker to get hot, which again is an unknown.

I cannot disagree with anything you said. I have similar concerns. My only point is, so does every fan of all the teams. As for the back of the baseball card reference, I also think this years results have to be factored in too. And based on those things I would put the Cubs talent up against any of the teams playing in the first round. It really is going to come down to what team overcomes the concerns of their fan base. And any team can do it. 

[Geographyhater8888]

30 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I cannot disagree with anything you said. I have similar concerns. My only point is, so does every fan of all the teams. As for the back of the baseball card reference, I also think this years results have to be factored in too. And based on those things I would put the Cubs talent up against any of the teams playing in the first round. It really is going to come down to what team overcomes the concerns of their fan base. And any team can do it. 

Let’s hope it’s us. Fangraphs too, so I can use Nico’s bWAR to prove he’s better than Soto in an argument if the Cubs discredit them and their 3.4% World Series winning odds. 

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Let’s hope it’s us. Fangraphs too, so I can use Nico’s bWAR to prove he’s better than Soto in an argument if the Cubs discredit them and their 3.4% World Series winning odds. 

To me, fangraphs is ridiculous in that percentage. Obviously the 4 teams who get a bye in rd one should be the 4 favorites. But I see no reason the Cubs shouldn’t be in that next tier pretty equally with the Dodgers, whoever has the 3rd best record of division winners in the AL and the 1st WC team in the AL. All have home field in rd 1. The next tier would be the road teams in rd 1. No team is great. IMO Phillies are the Cubs toughest challenge. But that doesn’t mean they are the best team either. I just don’t like the match ups for the Cubs in that potential series. 

[gflore34]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

To me, fangraphs is ridiculous in that percentage. Obviously the 4 teams who get a bye in rd one should be the 4 favorites. But I see no reason the Cubs shouldn’t be in that next tier pretty equally with the Dodgers, whoever has the 3rd best record of division winners in the AL and the 1st WC team in the AL. All have home field in rd 1. The next tier would be the road teams in rd 1. No team is great. IMO Phillies are the Cubs toughest challenge. But that doesn’t mean they are the best team either. I just don’t like the match ups for the Cubs in that potential series. 

There's a huge randomness to the post season, all it takes is someone to get hot for a series.  PCA, Suzuki, Busch and, if he plays, Tucker are all capable, there's no reason why anyone of them couldn't find it for a series.  This is true for all playoff teams, there isn't a way to account for the random outcomes in the percentages.  It's gong to happen, someone will emerge, for a refreshing change it might be a Cub.

[Chicago Al]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I bet Guardians fans would love for their team to have the record the Cubs have and not have to worry about a 10 game winning streak to possibly make the playoffs. 

Not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not. Would it not have been nice at anytime during the season for the Cubs to have had a winning streak of more than 5 games?

[Geographyhater8888]

41 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

To me, fangraphs is ridiculous in that percentage. Obviously the 4 teams who get a bye in rd one should be the 4 favorites. But I see no reason the Cubs shouldn’t be in that next tier pretty equally with the Dodgers, whoever has the 3rd best record of division winners in the AL and the 1st WC team in the AL. All have home field in rd 1. The next tier would be the road teams in rd 1. No team is great. IMO Phillies are the Cubs toughest challenge. But that doesn’t mean they are the best team either. I just don’t like the match ups for the Cubs in that potential series. 

We can only theorize why the cubs keep losing these simulations but I’d bet the pitching staffs susceptibility to giving up the long ball, including our primary guys on the playoff roster doesn’t matchup well vs the power hitting lineups like the dodgers and Phillies. Lowest pitching war of any playoff team and no true number 1 starter is my guess. Defensive war can’t prevent home runs. Maybe other reasons I’ve outlined or maybe nothing I’ve typed. 

Edited September 21, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Chicago Al said:

Not sure if you’re being sarcastic or not. Would it not have been nice at anytime during the season for the Cubs to have had a winning streak of more than 5 games?

Sure, but what difference does it make if they did win 10 in a row and there record was still 88-67? Doesn’t matter how you get your record. You are your record. If they did have that sort of strength at some point of the season and still been 88-67 there would be people complaining that aside from the 10 game stretch they are barely over .500. Aside from the Guardians 10 game stretch they are 74-71. Again, sure it would be nice, but I am fine with 88 wins regardless how they got them. 

Edited September 21, 2025 by Rcal10

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

We can only theorize why the cubs keep losing these simulations but I’d bet the pitching staffs susceptibility to giving up the long ball, including our primary guys on the playoff roster doesn’t matchup well vs the power hitting lineups like the dodgers and Phillies. Lowest pitching war of any playoff team is my guess. Defensive war can’t prevent home runs. Maybe other reasons I’ve outlined or maybe nothing I’ve typed. 

I agree that could be the issue. Which is why I am happy they will probably only have to face the Dodgers or a Phillies and not both. And then, the randomness of Wrigley winds could help the Cubs staff. They are obviously at an advantage for their pitchers if the wind is blowing in. Then defense and lack of walking batters helps the Cubs staff.

[Chicago Al]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Sure, but what difference does it make if they did win 10 in a row and there record was still 88-67? Doesn’t matter how you get your record. You are your record. If they did have that sort of strength at some point of the season and still been 88-67 there would be people complaining that aside from the 10 game stretch they are barely over .500. Aside from the Guardians 10 game stretch they are 74-71. Again, sure it would be nice, but I am fine with 88 wins regardless how they got them. 

I’m fine with their record too, making the postseason and all… Just saying it would have been nice to have a nice winning streak during the season. 21 games over .500, I’m happy with that. 

[squally1313]

In the last 18 games, the cubs are second in runs allowed with 65. The Guardians are first…with 28. Just outrageous baseball being played there. 

[Papa Cub]

6 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Deep breathe papacub. If you watched any other team I am sure at some point you would say they are also very inconsistent. If this season has proved anything it is the Cubs have been very consistent through the entire year. Maybe not a particular part of their team, but in end results they have played very consistent baseball as far as wins and loses goes. A few decent runs and then .500 ball the rest of the time. They will be fine. What is happening right now has no bearing on what happens the end of September into October. Momentum is a good start by a pitcher. They are a virtual lock to play the Padres. Love it to be at home, which they still have a great chance of making that happen. Just relax and let the season finish. Whatever they do in the playoffs will not be a result of what happens from now until the end of the season. (Unless they do blow a 4 game lead with 7 to play-which I do not expect them to do) And even if they did it is still SD but on the road. 

No argument there - all fair and good points. I, like any Cubs fan, feel we would fair much better at the Friendly Confines than in SD.

Just hoping they can get back into somewhat of a “groove” before the playoffs is all. 
 

Also, my wife tells me to “take some breaths” when she hears me downstairs carrying on during some games 🤷‍♂️😝