Cubs (Taillon) vs Angels (Hendricks): 8/24/25, 3:07pm

[Soul]

11 hours ago, BigSlick said:

Not so fast, they just scored 5 runs and are now only down by 1

It happened like 15 minutes after I posted too.  Alas, that was all AZ could muster.

[UMFan83]

Reds lose again last night. Now 9 behind the Cubs in the loss column. If the Cubs go 16-15 the rest of the way, the Reds would have to go 24-6 to catch them and 25-5 to pass them.  And of course even if that happened, the Mets would still have to go 22-9 to catch the Cubs AND Padres 18-12 for the Cubs to be in danger of missing the playoffs (H2H tiebreaker with all Reds and Mets still undecided, as is the tiebreaker with the Padres who the Cubs went 3-3 against)

Edited August 26, 2025 by UMFan83

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Reds lose again last night. Now 9 behind the Cubs in the loss column. If the Cubs go 16-15 the rest of the way, the Reds would have to go 24-6 to catch them and 25-5 to pass them.  And of course even if that happened, the Mets would still have to go 22-9 to catch the Cubs AND Padres 18-12 for the Cubs to be in danger of missing the playoffs (H2H tiebreaker with all Reds and Mets still undecided, as is the tiebreaker with the Padres who the Cubs went 3-3 against)

Yeah I believe the magic number for the playoffs is 23, and the Reds need to take 3/4 in the upcoming series to win the tiebreaker and avoid it dropping one more.  The Cubs can pretty much limp to the finish line and still play a playoff round at this point.

Home field in the wildcard round is tighter.  Padres are likely going to win the tiebreaker, because they have a stellar in-division record on account of bludgeoning the Giants and Rockies.  So I think it's officially 29 but more practically is 30.

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I believe the magic number for the playoffs is 23, and the Reds need to take 3/4 in the upcoming series to win the tiebreaker and avoid it dropping one more.  The Cubs can pretty much limp to the finish line and still play a playoff round at this point.

Home field in the wildcard round is tighter.  Padres are likely going to win the tiebreaker, because they have a stellar in-division record on account of bludgeoning the Giants and Rockies.  So I think it's officially 29 but more practically is 30.

Last I looked the Cubs were something like 24-17 against the central and the Padres were 21-17 against the West. Padres did take 2 of 3 from the Dodgers but that would but then at 23-18. I could be wrong. I did a Quick Look the other day. But I don’t think it is a certainty the Padres win the tiebreaker

Edit: just looked. Both 24-18. 

Edited August 26, 2025 by Rcal10

[mul21]

21 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I believe the magic number for the playoffs is 23, and the Reds need to take 3/4 in the upcoming series to win the tiebreaker and avoid it dropping one more.  The Cubs can pretty much limp to the finish line and still play a playoff round at this point.

Home field in the wildcard round is tighter.  Padres are likely going to win the tiebreaker, because they have a stellar in-division record on account of bludgeoning the Giants and Rockies.  So I think it's officially 29 but more practically is 30.

Is the division record the first tie breaker or is it head to head?  I also wouldn't assume just yet that the Dodgers win the West since it's a 1 game gap right now.

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, CubUgly said:

They have certainly given Cohen the opportunity, but the chemistry is just bad with he and JD who seems to be as get along a guy as there is, running that back IF and that's a big IF, Boog does not return.  It would be like forcing Girardi and Boog together who obviously did not like each other and they did that waaaay too many times. 

Personally,  I found it hilarious each and every time how openly Boog showed his dislike of Girardi.

[Andy]

12 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Is the division record the first tie breaker or is it head to head?  I also wouldn't assume just yet that the Dodgers win the West since it's a 1 game gap right now.

H2H is first but since the Cubs and Padres split the 6 games they played it moves to the next one. As you alluded to, it would apply if it was us and LA, with a 4-3 H2H edge to the Cubs this season. 

Edited August 26, 2025 by Andy

[Bertz]

26 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Is the division record the first tie breaker or is it head to head?  I also wouldn't assume just yet that the Dodgers win the West since it's a 1 game gap right now.

It goes H2H, then division record, then record against the rest of the NL, then starts getting weird with "Last half of Interleague games"

29 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Last I looked the Cubs were something like 24-17 against the central and the Padres were 21-17 against the West. Padres did take 2 of 3 from the Dodgers but that would but then at 23-18. I could be wrong. I did a Quick Look the other day. But I don’t think it is a certainty the Padres win the tiebreaker

Edit: just looked. Both 24-18. 

Yeah the Padres have 7 more against the Rockies and 3 more against AZ, we have one series each against Pitt, Cincy, and St. Louis.  Padres definitely have an easier road, though the Cubs' is hardly scary.

Not impossible the Cubs outplay the Padres in those 10 games, but I would guess if they do they'll have won the #4 seed outright making it moot.

[BKHoo]

15 hours ago, javy knows my name said:

Vegas odds favor the big fanbases. Its better engagement. That's barely data

I disagree.  He was not even close to the favorite for a long time. This is a big move based on his recent play and a few others not playing as well.  He earned this. 

[UMFan83]

Maybe a controversial take but I don't think I care if the Cubs get home field or not.  Maybe it's just scar tissue from 2018 and 2020 and the fact that Wrigley is just not fun to hit at lately, but if it's SD or LA, I'm not too upset about it.  

Granted SD is also an extreme pitchers park, and Dodger Stadium can play like one at night, and of course both teams play with the same conditions so its not like going out west would be a benefit for the Cubs offense, but maybe it would take the pressure off a bit since our fans have been known to create a panicked negative vibe in the stadium (a feeling I experienced in the 2008 NLDS).

Edited August 26, 2025 by UMFan83

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Maybe a controversial take but I don't think I care if the Cubs get home field or not.  Maybe it's just scar tissue from 2018 and 2020 and the fact that Wrigley is just not fun to hit at lately, but if it's SD or LA, I'm not too upset about it.  

Granted SD is also an extreme pitchers park, and Dodger Stadium can play like one at night, and of course both teams play with the same conditions so its not like going out west would be a benefit for the Cubs offense, but maybe it would take the pressure off a bit since our fans have been known to create a panicked negative vibe in the stadium (a feeling I experienced in the 2008 NLDS).

I sorta get your points, but every single team referenced, including the Cubs perform significantly better at home. Dodgers are .500 on the road, Padres are under .500. 

Should we run our starters ragged trying to lock it down? Probably not. But I'd much rather have it than not. 

[UMFan83]

31 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I sorta get your points, but every single team referenced, including the Cubs perform significantly better at home. Dodgers are .500 on the road, Padres are under .500. 

Should we run our starters ragged trying to lock it down? Probably not. But I'd much rather have it than not. 

Yeah it’s more of an emotional thing than a logical thing. Of course the Cubs are better off playing at home, I’m just not going to be too upset if we aren’t able to clinch home field in the WC round

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Yeah it’s more of an emotional thing than a logical thing. Of course the Cubs are better off playing at home, I’m just not going to be too upset if we aren’t able to clinch home field in the WC round

I get it, taking that approach certainly makes the rest of the season a lot more low stress. Would basically have to forfeit the season to miss the playoffs, whereas HFA in round one looks to be a bit of a dogfight. Might take your route and just decide not to care as much. Football is starting, weather is perfect, I'll just pop in occasionally and annoy people with talking about how the good team is good and wait until October. 

[CubUgly]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Personally,  I found it hilarious each and every time how openly Boog showed his dislike of Girardi.

Ha! yes and it was mutual.  Is it possible Marquee thought the open mutual disdain was entertaining?

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

It goes H2H, then division record, then record against the rest of the NL, then starts getting weird with "Last half of Interleague games"

Yeah the Padres have 7 more against the Rockies and 3 more against AZ, we have one series each against Pitt, Cincy, and St. Louis.  Padres definitely have an easier road, though the Cubs' is hardly scary.

Not impossible the Cubs outplay the Padres in those 10 games, but I would guess if they do they'll have won the #4 seed outright making it moot.

Yes, I saw this too. But I believe the initial comment was the Cubs would lose the tiebreaker to the Padres, who had a better record against their division then the Cubs did. And up until now they don’t. But I agree that 7 against the Rockies sure helps them. Or course it might help them beat out the Dodgers, who Cubs win the tiebreaker against. 

[Bote McBoteface]

On 8/25/2025 at 8:01 PM, javy knows my name said:

This is the most outrageous take of the season.

Cohen is not terrible, but he's not comfortable up there and he's got the best color commentator in the business as a booth partner and as much as JD tries, he can't elevate him at all. Most importantly, Cohen hasn't improved his shortcomings at all in a lot of opportunities this season.

I gotta ask - do you agree with me about JD? Because it's clear JD strongly prefers Boog as a booth partner. That should be enough to prefer Boog in a value judgment, regardless of your problems with him.

"I dont care much for Boog, so that isn't saying much" carries a lot of weight in the statement. Its Boog that I don't like, not Alex that I like. Theres just something about Boog that rubs me the wrong way. Part of it is that he does so many national broadcasts and misses so many games. Part of it is irrational. And its funny because before this season I would have said that it seems like JD doesn't care for Boog. But yeah I suppose you're right that JD prefers Boog. I don't think Alex is great or anything. Ive been saying put Pat Hughes in the TV booth since 1998, with the exception of when we also employed Len. Although I know that wont happen because Pat prefers doing radio.