Cubs (Taillon) vs Angels (Hendricks): 8/24/25, 3:07pm

[Bull]

Sweep on the road without Boyd or Shota pitching. I just want to take a step back and appreciate that. 

Even if Taillon is out, a rotation of 

Boyd

Shota

Horton

Rea 

Assad is dang good.

I'd sure love to rest Boyd and Horton though. I fear that their workload is going to be a problem in the postseason. Maybe use the off day to give everyone extra rest, then throw wicks in there if you have to as a sixth man when there's no off day. Once Taillon is back piggyback Boyd/Horton and Wicks/Assad to limit innings. Fire Brown into the sun. 

 

[Caesar]

35 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

There is also this thing called rhythm with a pitcher. He uses it as a secondary pitch off his fastball. Maybe it’s better because of that, the hitters are sitting on the fastball and how his arm feels because of all the fastballs he throws. 

I appreciate the feedback. It’s just a question I’m asking. I’m wondering why ?

[Rex Buckingham]

46 minutes ago, Caesar said:

I appreciate the feedback. It’s just a question I’m asking. I’m wondering why ?

Nobody has an exact answer, as none of us have any involvement in the gameplan. We can make reasonable assumptions, like maybe his slider works so well because of how little he throws it, or that maybe he doesn't throw it much because he doesn't have a lot of confidence in it. 

I don't know what you're expecting

[bukie]

For funsies, I ran 10000 simulations for the end of the season based on current pythagorean estimates.

Here was the Cubs' record distribution:

5% - 100+ wins
20% - 98+ wins
50% - 96+ wins
75% - 94+ wins
90% - 92+ wins

Brewers' record distribution assuming they are August good:

40% - 100+ wins
55% - 99+ wins
75% - 97+ wins
90% - 95+ wins
99% - 92+ wins

If the Brewers somehow revert back to their May form:

4% - 100+ wins
18% - 98+ wins
40% - 96+ wins
70% - 94+ wins
90% - 92+ wins

So while it would help the Cubs out (obviously) if the Brewers turned back into a pumpkin, it seems like the Cubs target number to try to win the division is 100 games.

For reference, the Cubs beat out the current Brewers in 1,989 simulations (19.9%). The Cubs beat out the pumpkin Brewers in 5,969 simulations (59.7).
 

[Stratos]

Pulling Taillon as a precaution due to groin tightness doesn't sound that bad.

[Jason Ross]

9 hours ago, Caesar said:

If he doesn’t have command of those pitches then those metrics are silly. 

None of that is silly. There is a separate "Location+" metric which details command and where a pitcher locates his pitches. You can have excellent spin rate, shape and movement but if you cannot command it, then it's not something you can throw too often. I would like the Cubs to get Palencia to use his slider more, but it's a work in progress. 

It's also on the pitcher to trust the pitch. Something that as much as we'd love him to do internally, he may not entirely feel that trust yet. It's very easy to fall in love with a pitch like a 102mph fastball and moving a guy off of that a bit is hard. 

Ultimately, you seem to want to confirm your eye test which is that the slider is a not a good pitch by suggesting that the data is wrong or that the team doesn't believe in it. I think there are many other factors. Two things can be true: that Daniel Palencia has all of the ingredients of a really good slider but likely needs to take some steps before he has a lot of trust in the pitch. Remember, this was a walk machine just a year ago. It'll probably take some time.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Was hoping we’d miss Webb.. but mlb and baseball reference has him going Thursday.. is that official?

[Jason Ross]

Just now, itisallpartoftheplan said:

Was hoping we’d miss Webb.. but mlb and baseball reference has him going Thursday.. is that official?

Nothing will be official until he takes the mound, but yes, he's lined up to pitch that day as of now. 

[itisallpartoftheplan]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Nothing will be official until he takes the mound, but yes, he's lined up to pitch that day as of now. 

I guess it’s his regular rest but... was hoping we’d get a spot starter that game or something and they wouldn’t go with 4 that this time through.

They have a softer schedule after they are done with us.. must think they are still alive.

[Derwood]

After 2 weeks of "the Brewers are never going to lose again", over the last 10 games:

MIL: 4-6 
CHC: 8-2

Edited August 25, 2025 by Derwood

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, itisallpartoftheplan said:

I guess it’s his regular rest but... was hoping we’d get a spot starter that game or something and they wouldn’t go with 4 that this time through.

They have a softer schedule after they are done with us.. must think they are still alive.

Maybe if it was September and the Giants had an extra SP on the roster or a young pitcher and went to a 6 man, but outside of that, there should be no reason to expect the Giants to rest a P on normal rest, even if they're not in playoff contention. 

[itisallpartoftheplan]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Maybe if it was September and the Giants had an extra SP on the roster or a young pitcher and went to a 6 man, but outside of that, there should be no reason to expect the Giants to rest a P on normal rest, even if they're not in playoff contention. 

They are going

Webb-Ray (Brewers series)

Verlander-Whisenhunt-Webb..

My point was hoping they’d have a 5th person to take the Thursday start.. but with the off day Monday they can have Webb Thursday.

Next time through they’ll have to have a 5th starter.

Edited August 25, 2025 by itisallpartoftheplan

[CubUgly]

9 hours ago, Bull said:

.

I'd sure love to rest Boyd and Horton though. I fear that their workload is going to be a problem in the postseason. Maybe use the off day to give everyone extra rest, then throw wicks in there if you have to as a sixth man when there's no off day. Once Taillon is back piggyback Boyd/Horton and Wicks/Assad to limit innings. Fire Brown into the sun. 

 

I've been really concerned about that all year and they have surpassed what I expected of them and are still pitching effectively.  How much longer can they go? I know they use different means of measuring these things now outside of sheer pitch and inning counts, but I just keep waiting for the bubble to burst.  I hope this continues to be a pleasant surprise and they can keep this up. 

[squally1313]

Tough week for the ‘this is a historic collapse’ crowd 

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Tough week for the ‘this is a historic collapse’ crowd 

Yep. Wonder if we can all agree the Cubs have a better chance of catching the Brewers than they do of missing the playoffs all together. Of course the collapse crowd will suggest it doesn’t matter because they can’t win in the playoffs anyway. Just keep kicking the negative comments down the road until the Cubs are eliminated and then say “I told you they couldn’t win”. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Yep. Wonder if we can all agree the Cubs have a better chance of catching the Brewers than they do of missing the playoffs all together. Of course the collapse crowd will suggest it doesn’t matter because they can’t win in the playoffs anyway. Just keep kicking the negative comments down the road until the Cubs are eliminated and then say “I told you they couldn’t win”. 

Which crowd do I fall into? 

[Bertz]

 

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Which crowd do I fall into? 

🤷 My point is, it is very easy to always be negative. It is an easy win for 29 or 30 fan bases. Thr positive posters are going to eventually be wrong over 90% of the time. But that can be said for all teams. And when the negative posters are finally wrong no one ever calls them out. We are all too happy because our team won the WS. 

[Geographyhater8888]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

🤷 My point is, it is very easy to always be negative. It is an easy win for 29 or 30 fan bases. Thr positive posters are going to eventually be wrong over 90% of the time. But that can be said for all teams. And when the negative posters are finally wrong no one ever calls them out. We are all too happy because our team won the WS. 

It all hinges on the rotation and Tucker. Great news if Tuckers turned a corner and his issues were mental/mechanical and not injury related and Boyd and Horton continue to remove any doubt that they can handle the workload. Rooting for the Cubs fcks with your head, 

The ability to win on the margins is a positive tend i haven’t really seen with any consistency since the 2015 team. I feel a lot better about them right now than a week ago after passing the test vs Milwaukee and how they’ve stacked wins even with a slumping offense. 

Edited August 25, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[muntjack]

Yeah, nearly every team will fall short.  It can be hard not to recognize and call out the flaws that will almost certainly lead to your team being one of those.  The incessant complaining is annoying, but  those people are generally right on the money.  It's us positives that are deluding ourselves. 

[Geographyhater8888]

20 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Yeah, nearly every team will fall short.  It can be hard not to recognize and call out the flaws that will almost certainly lead to your team being one of those.  The incessant complaining is annoying, but  those people are generally right on the money.  It's us positives that are deluding ourselves. 

You take the positives for granted and point out the negatives that can impact your chances of winning in the playoffs. This is universal for every fanbase and every GM too. Unless you think Jed is a hater for adding bullpen arms and dumping Brujan for Castro, to improve the team every way he can. Should we talk about the cubs like we’re reading an obituary only mentioning the positive traits of the deceased?
It’s ok to meet in the middle within reason.

[Brian707]

53 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

🤷 My point is, it is very easy to always be negative. It is an easy win for 29 or 30 fan bases. Thr positive posters are going to eventually be wrong over 90% of the time. But that can be said for all teams. And when the negative posters are finally wrong no one ever calls them out. We are all too happy because our team won the WS. 

I think the season will be considered a disappointment if they dont at least reach the NLCS. It will be a much easier ask to get to the NLCS by winning the division that still is a long shot.

It does seem that the NL has been the better league this year though compared to the AL. Whomever wins the pennant should win the WS

[squally1313]

The playoffs are such a crapshoot, especially being stuck in the first round because the Brewers went historically nuclear. We finish the season with a win total in the low 90s, it's hard for me to look at the season as a whole and then it was disappointing. Of course if/when they lose in the playoffs it'll be depressing, but there shouldn't be like, lessons taken from a defeat in a three game series after playing really good baseball over a six month stretch.

[Geographyhater8888]

16 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The playoffs are such a crapshoot, especially being stuck in the first round because the Brewers went historically nuclear. We finish the season with a win total in the low 90s, it's hard for me to look at the season as a whole and then it was disappointing. Of course if/when they lose in the playoffs it'll be depressing, but there shouldn't be like, lessons taken from a defeat in a three game series after playing really good baseball over a six month stretch.

Losing to Milwaukee would erase a lot of the positive memories but that’s just me. Beating them makes it a huge success.

Edited August 25, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[We Got The Whole 9]

There was plenty to complain about, being that the Brewers won 75% of their games for 2 months and the Cubs have the 2nd worst offense in MLB in the 2nd half, making it easier for the Brewers to surpass them. I mean hey, pat yourself on the back for remaining stoic and not having a public meltdown if you wish, but there were plenty of valid reasons for fans to get upset and lose hope. I think only a small, small group actually said they believed the Cubs would miss the playoffs, however. The reactions were pretty normal, I bet, if you compare fan bases around the league at large.