Reds (Littell) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 8/5/25, 7:05pm

[squally1313]

19 minutes ago, Soul said:

My God.  Please stop with this stat, it triggers Cubs PTSD in the worst way.  Weren’t we basically at this level last year and didn’t make it?

Peaked at 71.8% on May 10th last year. A year ago today we were at 5.3%

To Andy's point, on September 6, 2023 we were at 92.4% before going going 7-15 the rest of the year. As rough as it seems right now, we've played nowhere near that bad. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

I guess you could say that 83, but this season seems to me to be unusual in the degree to which they are all playing mediocre baseball overs such a long stretch all at the same time.   The 2016 Cubs had a 5-15 stretch at the end of June and early July even but this is pretty prolonged and watching our good hitters struggle so much for so long is really, really hard to take. 

There's no team wide statistic that says the offense is struggling over a prolonged stretch though. Like, there just isn't. Maybe it has something to do with the league-wide batting average in 2016 being 9 points higher, and the OPS being 21 points higher? Mediocre baseball is better than bad baseball, especially when coupled with the prior run of really good baseball. 

[CubUgly]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

There's no team wide statistic that says the offense is struggling over a prolonged stretch though. Like, there just isn't. 

I didn't say our team, although it ain't great there either....I said our best players, or what I would consider our best hitters in Seiya and Tuck have been struggling for a long period of time.   And even when they get hits they aren't slugging in that time period either.   That just has to turn around and I think it will but man.....I'm still waiting and it's been over a month now. 

[Hot Sauce]

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, CubUgly said:

I didn't say our team, although it ain't great there either....I said our best players, or what I would consider our best hitters in Seiya and Tuck have been struggling for a long period of time.   And even when they get hits they aren't slugging in that time period either.   That just has to turn around and I think it will but man.....I'm still waiting and it's been over a month now. 

I feel like the 2023-2024 teams set out to be solid up and down the line up without a real weak spot, and when things were going good in April/May this year it felt like we finally achieved that while also simultaneously adding the elite top end production (Tucker, PCA levelling up). The last month or so has been a good reminder of what it used to be, but there's just too much history of performance for guys like Suzuki and Tucker for me to be too worried. 

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

I didn't say our team, although it ain't great there either....I said our best players, or what I would consider our best hitters in Seiya and Tuck have been struggling for a long period of time.   And even when they get hits they aren't slugging in that time period either.   That just has to turn around and I think it will but man.....I'm still waiting and it's been over a month now. 

I think it will as well, what concerns me is may take another 2 weeks to a month for them to snap out of it. 

[CubinNY]

Milwaukee will cool down or they will walk away with the WS. The Cubs need to play .500 ball and then get hot in the playoffs. Most years, pitching and defense are a winning combination. Maybe Horton is turning a corner. You only need 3 SP in the playoffs. Boyd, Shota, and Horton is not a bad front end of the rotation. I worry about Palancia handling the pressure, but we will see. 

They didn't meet the deadline expectations,  but then again, none of the big players were traded, so the markets were off for everyone. 

Everyone wants the Cubs to dominate; that would be great. 

Edited August 5, 2025 by CubinNY

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I think it will as well, what concerns me is may take another 2 weeks to a month for them to snap out of it. 

You said 2 weeks to a month, so let’s split the difference and use 3 weeks. Even if they “struggle” as they have been over the next 3 weeks that would be about 19 games. Their struggling has amounted to playing a little over .500 during that stretch. So let’s call it 10-9. Now they have 31 games to go while playing well. Maybe 20-11? So 30-20 their last 50. I will take that. Beat the Brewers at least 3 of 5 and take their chances with 94 wins. Maybe it isn’t the division, but most likely the 1st wild card. Just continue to stay hot in the playoffs. 

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You said 2 weeks to a month, so let’s split the difference and use 3 weeks. Even if they “struggle” as they have been over the next 3 weeks that would be about 19 games. Their struggling has amounted to playing a little over .500 during that stretch. So let’s call it 10-9. Now they have 31 games to go while playing well. Maybe 20-11? So 30-20 their last 50. I will take that. Beat the Brewers at least 3 of 5 and take their chances with 94 wins. Maybe it isn’t the division, but most likely the 1st wild card. Just continue to stay hot in the playoffs. 

Sounds good to me, make it happen.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, gflore34 said:

Sounds good to me, make it happen.

Don’t know if it will happen. Just saying for as bad as everyone feels right now the Cubs are still in a great spot. I would have gladly taken 65-47 if someone suggested that would be there record with 50 to go. I would have also assumed they had at least a 5 game lead. No control over the Brewers. Cubs just have to play well, win 90+ games and get hot in the playoffs. 

[BKHoo]

Jed needs to be challenged by the press on his starting pitcher move at the TDL. What was his thinking there with the obvious drop in velocity?

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would have gladly taken 65-47 if someone suggested that would be there record with 50 to go.

Yeah it's probably not a perfect analogy, but I remember Rory's press conference after he won the Masters. He had a one shot lead going into 18 and missed a 6 foot par putt to bogey and end up in the playoffs. Had all the weight on his shoulders with blowing the lead and all the history, said his caddy pulled him aside and was like 'well, we would have taken this position at the start of the week'. Went in and birdied the first playoff hole (the same hole he just bogeyed) to win.

Has it been fun lately? No, beyond just that it's fun to care about late season baseball and it certainly beats the alternative of running out the strong. But it's a good team, and none of these other NL teams on paper look anywhere close to unbeatable. Go get it. 

[UMFan83]

Season back on:

Just a reminder he has a 12.66 ERA this year, -0.7 bWAR and has last 2 appearances for the Cubs:

5 ER in 2 IP vs Seattle

3 ER in 0.1 IP vs San Diego

Edited August 5, 2025 by UMFan83

[Hot Sauce]

48 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Jed needs to be challenged by the press on his starting pitcher move at the TDL. What was his thinking there with the obvious drop in velocity?

I’ll save Jed the trouble…

”We evaluated him and believed that the drop in velocity was not due to an existing injury. These things unfortunately happen. We still believe we have a really good team here built for long-term success.”

**Not a real quote** 

Edited August 5, 2025 by Hot Sauce

[mul21]

21 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Season back on:

Just a reminder he has a 12.66 ERA this year, -0.7 bWAR and has last 2 appearances for the Cubs:

5 ER in 2 IP vs Seattle

3 ER in 0.1 IP vs San Diego

The good news: he's underperforming his FIP by over 5 runs.

The bad news: his FIP is over 7.

[Soul]

47 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Milwaukee will cool down or they will walk away with the WS. The Cubs need to play .500 ball and then get hot in the playoffs. Most years, pitching and defense are a winning combination. Maybe Horton is turning a corner. You only need 3 SP in the playoffs. Boyd, Shota, and Horton is not a bad front end of the rotation. I worry about Palancia handling the pressure, but we will see. 

They didn't meet the deadline expectations,  but then again, none of the big players were traded, so the markets were off for everyone. 

Everyone wants the Cubs to dominate; that would be great. 

I’ll settle for no more 3 run jacks late by a bad team to beat us.  I feel like that will net us a couple more wins at least.  

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, 17 Seconds said:

playoff odds still at 97.2%, just don't get swept

They'll make the playoffs, it just they'll likely not get pass the Division round with the pitching they have.

[chibears55]

32 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Season back on:

Just a reminder he has a 12.66 ERA this year, -0.7 bWAR and has last 2 appearances for the Cubs:

5 ER in 2 IP vs Seattle

3 ER in 0.1 IP vs San Diego

Dude just lost the game in Iowa the other day giving up 3 runs in his inning.

Do they seriously have nobody better then this to call up now?

 

[Brian707]

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

They'll make the playoffs, it just they'll likely not get pass the Division round with the pitching they have.

Division round is optimistic 

[gflore34]

27 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

I’ll save you the trouble…

”We evaluated him and believed that the drop in velocity was not due to an existing injury. These things unfortunately happen. We still believe we have a really good team here built for long-term success.”

Does that mean Soroka' done for the season?  Kind of reads that way to me.

[WhyCantWeWin]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Dude just lost the game in Iowa the other day giving up 3 runs in his inning.

Do they seriously have nobody better then this to call up now?

 

Id prefer they call up Little

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Dude just lost the game in Iowa the other day giving up 3 runs in his inning.

Do they seriously have nobody better then this to call up now?

 

I'd gone with Little, same issue as Pearson, cannot consistently throw strikes.  If have to choose between a wild hard throwing RHP or LHP, I'll go with the LHP.

[Hot Sauce]

9 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Does that mean Soroka' done for the season?  Kind of reads that way to me.

Not a real quote. Just a joke and me doing my best to answer as I believe Jed would. 

[Derwood]

Wild how many relievers are on the 40 man when all we need is a starter.

[Connor McConnor]

Winning streak starts tonight.   Let's go Cubs.