Reds (Lodolo) vs Cubs (Soroka): 8/4/25, 7:05pm

[Brandon Glick]

First start for Soroka with the Cubs. For better or worse, he's the team's most important acquisition from the deadline.

[Derwood]

Time for Soroka to turn into Jake Arrieta 2.0

[CubUgly]

3 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Time for Soroka to turn into Jake Arrieta 2.0

Yeah, folks keep trying to make me feel better about him, man I just don't see it.

But I did look back on the Sutcliffe trade in 1984 and he was 4-5 with a plus 5 ERA at Cleveland when we got him so.....

[muntjack]

First start for the Cubs, on his birthday.  

[Derwood]

4 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Yeah, folks keep trying to make me feel better about him, man I just don't see it.

But I did look back on the Sutcliffe trade in 1984 and he was 4-5 with a plus 5 ERA at Cleveland when we got him so.....

His ERA is an anomaly. His ERA last year was 4.74, and it's 4.87 this year, but his WHIP, FIP, K/BB, HR/9, etc. are all WAY better.

Opposing hitters are hitting just .224/.309/.388 against him this year, and he has a 7% walk rate. Only number that is up from 2024 is hard hit %

Edited August 4, 2025 by Derwood

[gflore34]

11 minutes ago, Derwood said:

His ERA is an anomaly. His ERA last year was 4.74, and it's 4.87 this year, but his WHIP, FIP, K/BB, HR/9, etc. are all WAY better.

Opposing hitters are hitting just .224/.309/.388 against him this year, and he has a 7% walk rate. Only number that is up from 2024 is hard hit %

One of worrisome things is the dip in velocity otherwise, the numbers that should be low are lower than last season.  The numbers that should be higher are higher than last season.  I don't believe this is a Pressly like situation where the peripherals strongly suggested a continued down turn in performance and Jed seemingly ignored them.

[Soul]

If anyone has some voodoo to resurrect that 2019 guy now’s the time to use it.

[CubinNY]

It's time to start the separation. At this time, good teams tend to step on the gas, so to speak, and put the mediocre and bad teams in the rearview mirror. Lodolo is a good pitcher so this will be a test.

[KCCub]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

Yeah, folks keep trying to make me feel better about him, man I just don't see it.

But I did look back on the Sutcliffe trade in 1984 and he was 4-5 with a plus 5 ERA at Cleveland when we got him so.....

As long as we get this close to this guy moving forwards, he'll be a solid get:

As pointed out, fastball velo today will be something to monitor.

[UMFan83]

Slump tracking because I'm the weird kind of person who does this horsefeathers:

Seiya Suzuki last 14 games: 6-49, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 35% K%, 17% BB% (good), .122/.271/.143/.414

Kyle Tucker last 27 games: 21-93, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 16% K%, 18% BB%, .226/.365/.301/.666

Michael Busch last 21 games: 12-73, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 33% K%, 7% BB%, .164/.256/.288/.544

Dansby Swanson last 17 games: 12-66, 1 2B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 40% K%, 6% BB%, .194/.242/.257/.499

Carson Kelly last 9 games: 6-28, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 18% K%, 9% BB%, .214/.324/.250/.574

 

Ian Happ showing signs of life so I'll leave him out of this but can put together an ugly stat line using arbitrary end points also

On the plus side, despite some struggles, PCA has continued to get enough hits to not be in a true slump, Nico has hit very well the last month or so.  Shaw has fallen off in terms of production the last couple of games but still liking his ABs overall.

[Derwood]

Holy arbitrary end points, Batman!

[BKHoo]

Shaw’s OPS is about .600 at home. At what point do we have to stop making excuses for him and say he has underperformed even modest expectations. 

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Shaw’s OPS is about .600 at home. At what point do we have to stop making excuses for him and say he has underperformed even modest expectations. 

I'd suggest you go look at the second half Amaya and PCA had last year and be patient, especially after the hot start since the break.

[Hot Sauce]

Soroka had some absolutely rotten luck with injuries after 2019. He tore his achilles while trying to rehab from tearing his achilles. There's always been a good pitcher there and the peripherals are promising. I am honestly looking forward to seeing what we do with him here. 

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Shaw’s OPS is about .600 at home. At what point do we have to stop making excuses for him and say he has underperformed even modest expectations. 

do you think home/road splits are real or are you just using them to make him look worse than he's actually been?

[Hot Sauce]

4 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Shaw’s OPS is about .600 at home. At what point do we have to stop making excuses for him and say he has underperformed even modest expectations. 

No. Home/away splits are weird and mostly meaningless when it comes to hitters, unless those hitters play their home games at Coors. 

[CubUgly]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

His ERA is an anomaly. His ERA last year was 4.74, and it's 4.87 this year, but his WHIP, FIP, K/BB, HR/9, etc. are all WAY better.

Opposing hitters are hitting just .224/.309/.388 against him this year, and he has a 7% walk rate. Only number that is up from 2024 is hard hit %

Thanks for trying Derwood. 

[gflore34]

Was wondering about line up construction now that Happ is maybe starting to get hot.  Time to move him back to the lead off spot?  Then teams will not be able seemingly exploit match ups late in games. Move Busch to clean up, maybe, Nico/Kelly  in the 5th spot and PCA to the 6th spot, you'll have (L-R),L,R,L,R,L.  I've read that line up construction doesn't matter all that much.  Nevertheless, it appears as if teams are really taking advantage of all the left handed bats at the top of the line up.  Then again, this presently may look bad because 1-2-3 are all slumping.

[gflore34]

12 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Shaw’s OPS is about .600 at home. At what point do we have to stop making excuses for him and say he has underperformed even modest expectations. 

He couldn't square up any of the meatballs he saw Saturday.  Even on consecutive pitches, Friday though, he did hit balls with >= 100 EV.  Offensively he's definitely under performed even modest expectations, don't believe there's much of an argument there, with the glove, I'd say he's over performed modest expectations.

[CubUgly]

50 minutes ago, KCCub said:

As long as we get this close to this guy moving forwards, he'll be a solid get:

As pointed out, fastball velo today will be something to monitor.

Yes, I knew he had had some bad batted ball luck and that the FIP was better than than the ERA, but the velocity dip you and others referenced is VERY concerning and also his 3rd time through numbers are alarming - but they say he will be more of swing guy so maybe they work around that?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Brewers are playing the Braves so that's probably another sweep for them.

[squally1313]

Are Soroka's third time through numbers uniquely bad or is he just getting the same penalty that most other pitchers get?

We've got a temporary problem of Rea and Soroka going back to back if Counsell is going to have tight leashes on both. If we're trying to our relievers going three games in four days, we're down Palencia, Keller, Kittredge, and Thielbar tonight. Pomeranz with 20 pitches yesterday is probably fine, and then you've got Brasier, Rogers, and whatever is going on with Ben Brown (hasn't pitched since last Sunday). The Reds lineup as laidout by the FG Depth Chart page seems pretty easy to gameplan for. Elly sucks against lefties so you can line up Rogers and Pomeranz against the top and let Brasier/Brown deal with the bottom. 

This is about as good as Lodolo has been (1.32/2.08/2.77 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 9.88 K/9, 0.66 BB/9 the last four starts including against the Dodgers, the Mets, and a hot Miami team) so this one might be tough. But we're also good, so we should go win. 

[17 Seconds]

48 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Thanks for trying Derwood. 

how is he wrong?

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

Holy arbitrary end points, Batman!

Which I readily admitted

[BigSlick]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Slump tracking because I'm the weird kind of person who does this horsefeathers:

Seiya Suzuki last 14 games: 6-49, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 35% K%, 17% BB% (good), .122/.271/.143/.414

Kyle Tucker last 27 games: 21-93, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 16% K%, 18% BB%, .226/.365/.301/.666

Michael Busch last 21 games: 12-73, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 33% K%, 7% BB%, .164/.256/.288/.544

Dansby Swanson last 17 games: 12-66, 1 2B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 40% K%, 6% BB%, .194/.242/.257/.499

Carson Kelly last 9 games: 6-28, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 18% K%, 9% BB%, .214/.324/.250/.574

 

Ian Happ showing signs of life so I'll leave him out of this but can put together an ugly stat line using arbitrary end points also

On the plus side, despite some struggles, PCA has continued to get enough hits to not be in a true slump, Nico has hit very well the last month or so.  Shaw has fallen off in terms of production the last couple of games but still liking his ABs overall.

Brother, if you're going to do this at least set the same window of games/ABs for every player. If you do it this way you're personally cultivating the least Good window of production for everyone 

Edited August 4, 2025 by BigSlick