Red Sox (Crochet) vs Cubs (Horton): 7/20/25, 1:20pm

[PeanutPunch33]

I think the Cubs need to roll with their best players, whether it's a lefty or righty.  Busch has a higher WAR than Pete Alonso in like 60 less plate appearances. 

I no longer think they can justify sitting him under any circumstances.  

Edited July 20, 2025 by PeanutPunch33

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I think the Cubs need to roll with their best players, whether it's a lefty or righty.  Busch has a higher WAR than Pete Alonso in like 60 less plate appearances. 

I no longer think they can justify sitting him under any circumstances.  

It's just not that simple.  Especially in 2025 and doubly so with a manager like Counsell running the team, there is a lot more sophistication to these decisions.

First and foremost, Busch is almost certainly going to play today!  He'll get 1-2 at bats instead of 4, so the surface area of what is so upsetting is limited to facing Crochet 1-3 times.  Busch's numbers are so good partially *because* he gets shielded from the Crochet's of the world.  Matt has written before about how Busch's swing path has been optimized to handle RHP approaches with this in mind.  He plays 1B which is the easiest position to find a short side platoon bat.  If you think Turner is completely cooked that's fair, but even a diminished Turner is outhitting Busch against LHP by a huge margin!

[Bertz]

It's deeply funny to me that these two specifically are the ones calling for the team to objectively make itself worse against LHP

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Derwood said:

Nope, they have Boyd going Monday to set him up to face the Brewers later

It actually Tuesday but he will face the Brewers in the 2nd game.

Tomorrow im guessing is the bullpen game or Brown unless they have a surprise for us 🤷‍♂️

[PeanutPunch33]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It's just not that simple.  Especially in 2025 and doubly so with a manager like Counsell running the team, there is a lot more sophistication to these decisions.

First and foremost, Busch is almost certainly going to play today!  He'll get 1-2 at bats instead of 4, so the surface area of what is so upsetting is limited to facing Crochet 1-3 times.  Busch's numbers are so good partially *because* he gets shielded from the Crochet's of the world.  Matt has written before about how Busch's swing path has been optimized to handle RHP approaches with this in mind.  He plays 1B which is the easiest position to find a short side platoon bat.  If you think Turner is completely cooked that's fair, but even a diminished Turner is outhitting Busch against LHP by a huge margin!

Great explanation, that makes sense.  

[PeanutPunch33]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's deeply funny to me that these two specifically are the ones calling for the team to objectively make itself worse against LHP

I'd just rather see Busch out there than Turner 🤷‍♂️ 

[Derwood]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

278/333/410

196/274/339

Those are Turner’s numbers versus Busch when facing a left handed pitcher. So why is CC wrong to go with Turner here? 

I can't remember how to make BR or Fangraphs sort game logs by handedness, but his vsLHP since June 1 is really high

[Banedon]

I think the Busch/Turner vs lefties debate would be a LOT different if we had any faith in Turner.

[Geographyhater8888]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's deeply funny to me that these two specifically are the ones calling for the team to objectively make itself worse against LHP

If you’re referring to me then Not at all. As a matter of fact I propose we move PCA down to 8 or 9th to maximize the top of the order. His platform splits are awful. That’s a humorous observation though. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Banedon said:

Right, and that makes me glad that it's not gonna be Boyd.  Don't want him to get a couple innings in and have to sit through a delay.  Could help us against Crochet though.

That would be ideal if the baseball gods are with the Cubs today, start the game and play an inning or 2 then delay for an hour or so and Crochet wont be able to come back out and pitch 😅

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Derwood said:

Nope, they have Boyd going Monday to set him up to face the Brewers later

YASSSS!!!

[Geographyhater8888]

12 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It's just not that simple.  Especially in 2025 and doubly so with a manager like Counsell running the team, there is a lot more sophistication to these decisions.

First and foremost, Busch is almost certainly going to play today!  He'll get 1-2 at bats instead of 4, so the surface area of what is so upsetting is limited to facing Crochet 1-3 times.  Busch's numbers are so good partially *because* he gets shielded from the Crochet's of the world.  Matt has written before about how Busch's swing path has been optimized to handle RHP approaches with this in mind.  He plays 1B which is the easiest position to find a short side platoon bat.  If you think Turner is completely cooked that's fair, but even a diminished Turner is outhitting Busch against LHP by a huge margin!

Did Busch adjust his swing path for this specific reason or has it always been geared towards hitting right handed pitching to this extreme?

[Derwood]

Busch has a .740 OPS vs.L and 106 wRC+ since June 1.

He has a 1.199 OPS and 244 wRC+ vs.L since July 1 (just 19 PA's)

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Imanaga too, for that matter. 

YAAAASSSS!!!!!!!!!!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Did Busch adjust his swing path for this specific reason or has it always been geared towards hitting right handed pitching to this extreme?

I think it's a little bit of both, he's never been a split neutral guy, and his adjustments at the MLB level are about trying to be the best hitter he can against RHP even if it means he doesn't get to face as many LHP.

 

[UMFan83]

10 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I can't remember how to make BR or Fangraphs sort game logs by handedness, but his vsLHP since June 1 is really high

Just looking at last 30 days because it's easier but Busch has a .942 OPS and 162 wRC+ left handers over that span.  That said its a 24 PA sample

[Geographyhater8888]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think it's a little bit of both, he's never been a split neutral guy, and his adjustments at the MLB level are about trying to be the best hitter he can against RHP even if it means he doesn't get to face as many LHP.

 

Thanks for the explanation. What do you make of the increase in ABs vs left handed pitchers over the last few weeks?

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, cubfansince77 said:

Incredibly annoying...he's more than earned a shot against lefties IMO. Turner? No comment cuz I don't wanna be negative.

It's not a big deal for Turner to play for Busch vs LHP.  Turner has a .743 OPS vs LHP this year, Busch is at .613 OPS.  Busch hitting ,196 BA and Turner hitting .279 vs LHP.

You get the better glove with Busch, but it's hard to let Turner rot on the bench so I get it.  He'll be needed if someone gets hurt.  I'd be ok giving Busch a shot more vs LHP but the Turner platoon doesn't hurt the team so far, and seems to have made them better.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Thanks for the explanation. What do you make of the increase in ABs vs left handed pitchers over the last few weeks?

Probably an attempt to give him a little extra leeway to check growth while also being a little less than enamored with the results Turner has given. If Turner was crushing LHP, you'd probably give less time to Busch, but coupled together Busch has gotten more chances. 

[Stratos]

40 minutes ago, JD94 said:

PCA is never going to sit (outside of a day off) due to his defense at a premium position. 

Sitting Turner for Busch may even help the team.  It has so far if you look at the splits.  There is nobody who is better to play CF instead of PCA even vs LHP.   Nobody wants Brujan out there instead of PCA.

Also, even a good SP usually only goes 6 IP or whatever.  Vs Crochet you'd bat PCA closer to the bottom of the order, but when Crochet leaves the game you want PCA at the plate.

The lineup is fine IMO.

[Geographyhater8888]

24 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I'd just rather see Busch out there than Turner 🤷‍♂️ 

By his logic, wouldn’t batting PCA 5th with his 75 wRC+ make the lineup objectively worse? 

Edited July 20, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

By his logic wouldn’t batting PCA 5th with his 75 wRC+ make the lineup objectively worse? 

PCA's defense and position make him a near must play. He affects the games in a way Busch cannot, even if not hitting. 

His position in the lineup is due is more for later in the game to split up lefties to avoid punching them up and encouraging a LHP form entering later and neutralizing him. 

[Banedon]

The radar is looking pretty good for the game, so I guess AccuWeather was not so accu.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

By his logic, wouldn’t batting PCA 5th with his 75 wRC+ make the lineup objectively worse? 

It's a give and take between that and other factors.  You move PCA down you have a number of RHH in a row, and other teams have their version of Brasier or Tyson Miller last year that can mow down RHH pretty well, especially if we're talking about non-elite bats like Kelly, Swanson, Shaw, etc

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Banedon said:

The radar is looking pretty good for the game, so I guess AccuWeather was not so accu.

👍