Cubs (Rea) vs Astros (McCullers Jr.): 6/28/25, 6:15pm

[squally1313]

The cubs got the fifth best offensive player in baseball this year locked up for his age 23-28 seasons for 41 games of Javier Baez, but yes, we are inevitably cursed. 

[ILMindState]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

 But,  but, but….. Smith? How does that happen????? He is obviously going to be a superstar, right? I mean he is hitting .270 with OPS of .750. And a rookie. Has to be a star, right? I mean how many guys do that and then bust????. I would guess less than 70% right? So 30% become decent players. Those are great odds, right. Yep, he has to be a star and Shaw has to suck. Cubs have to be stupidly. They always are, right???

Rookies that suck right away never improve, and Rookies that are good right away never regress. It's an unwritten rule. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You had me agreeing either way you until the end. Why is it likely ownership lets him walk? Name a FA at Kyle’s level the Cubs let walk. All this talk of “well they never spent that money before” gets used as an example of why they won’t spend. Tell me a scenerio like this one where they let the superstar walk. 

What's the difference in a FA playing for us for a year vs playing for another team prior?  Tucker likely isn't giving the Cubs a discount.  400m is 400m.  If i'm Tucker i'm testing FA and going to the highest bidder, so the Ricketts need to pay up.  Given our payroll is embarrassingly low this year for a large market in a season where they're "all-in" I just don't see it as likely he signs here.  Nor do I think this brass would now choose to invest 400m on the basis of some kind of "emotional ties" built up over a year here.

Doesn't mean he doesn't resign, but nothing they've done since winning the WS would indicate there's much of a liklehood.  What would the betting odds be?  10% chance?

[PeanutPunch33]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs have scored the 2nd most runs and have the 3rd best wRC+ in baseball. It would be cool to make another really impactful offensive trade, but their offense is about as good as you can ask for. Anything *could* cost them a deep run in the playoffs, but their offense is their best aspect as a team. 

The offense is good, no doubt, but that number is because of their damage to righties.  They are inept vs LHP and for a pretty decent stretch now, 2 months where they are amongst the worst teams in baseball vs southpaws.  They will almost certainly face a handful of them in the playoffs.  

From my perspective, just because they go after a SP at the deadline doesn't mean they shouldn't actively explore other upgrades.  Tell me why a guy like Suarez is a bad move when it wouldn't even be that expensive and he's got a near .900 OPS and it's a half season move, similar to when they got Castellanos.  

A guy like that would slide into this lineup like wheels on ice.  He's exactly what the doctor ordered.  

[PeanutPunch33]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

 But,  but, but….. Smith? How does that happen????? He is obviously going to be a superstar, right? I mean he is hitting .270 with OPS of .750. And a rookie. Has to be a star, right? I mean how many guys do that and then bust????. I would guess less than 70% right? So 30% become decent players. Those are great odds, right. Yep, he has to be a star and Shaw has to suck. Cubs have to be stupidly. They always are, right???

Why don't you use this same logic for Shaw then.  I agree that prospects fail and fail often.  Shaw would already be on a bus or flight back to Iowa for the 2nd time if the Cubs had anybody else not named Brujan or Berti.  He'd be looking at his 3rd stint with the big league team in that scenario after he got the call again.  I feel like they are doing this to save face more than anything, and that's what bothers me.  They don't want to admit that they might just be wrong about Shaw and that he's not nearly ready to contribute at the big league level.  They owe it to the fans to go for it this year and try to put their best foot forward to win a WS.  Can you really say they are doing that, by playing a rookie that has one of the lowest exit velo's in the league for his amount of PA and who is dead weight on offense right now.  As Theo once said, these opportunities are sacred. 

Regarding Smith - his value is just going up and up and Shaw's is going down and down.  His trade value is undeniably lower today than it would have been before his first call up to the big leagues.  You can't say the same thing about Smith.  

Edited June 28, 2025 by PeanutPunch33

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Getting someone who mashes LHP to play first with Busch would have a massive impact. 

Turner has 60 PA vs LHP this year.  And that's playing all positions not just 1B.

I think it depends how July goes.  If Shaw is still struggling and Turner is whimpering or hurt maybe they grab a 1b/3b RHB if the right deal comes along.

SP is still definitely the priority though, and probably another pen arm.

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

The offense is good, no doubt, but that number is because of their damage to righties.  They are inept vs LHP and for a pretty decent stretch now, 2 months where they are amongst the worst teams in baseball vs southpaws.  They will almost certainly face a handful of them in the playoffs.  

From my perspective, just because they go after a SP at the deadline doesn't mean they shouldn't actively explore other upgrades.  Tell me why a guy like Suarez is a bad move when it wouldn't even be that expensive and he's got a near .900 OPS and it's a half season move, similar to when they got Castellanos.  

A guy like that would slide into this lineup like wheels on ice.  He's exactly what the doctor ordered.  

The Cubs have scored the 9th most runs (14th most PA's) and have the 7th best wRC+ against LHP. They also have the 23rd best BABIP against LHP despite being 8th in line drive and lowest in ground ball rate. They have the 5th best HR/FB% against LHP.  It's likely they've been a little unlucky.

Sure, they could use an upgrade over Turner. It's an upgradable spot, more than likely, against LHP. However the struggles against LHP are vastly overstated. 

[Stratos]

10 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

The offense is good, no doubt, but that number is because of their damage to righties.  They are inept vs LHP and for a pretty decent stretch now, 2 months where they are amongst the worst teams in baseball vs southpaws.  They will almost certainly face a handful of them in the playoffs.  

Cubs are 7th in MLB in OPS vs LHP.  Last month or 2 have been rough I agree.  PCA looks inept and they take Busch out of the lineup, so it hurts when a LHP neutralizes 2 of your best hitters.  Seiya/Dansby should help a bit there though.

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Why don't you use this same logic for Shaw then.  I agree that prospects fail and fail often.  Shaw would already be on a bus or flight back to Iowa for the 2nd time if the Cubs had anybody else not named Brujan or Berti.  He'd be looking at his 3rd stint with the big league team in that scenario after he got the call again.  I feel like they are doing this to save face more than anything, and that's what bothers me.  They don't want to admit that they might just be wrong about Shaw and that he's not nearly ready to contribute at the big league level.  They owe it to the fans to go for it this year and try to put their best foot forward to win a WS.  Can you really say they are doing that, by playing a rookie that has one of the lowest exit velo's in the league for his amount of PA and who is dead weight on offense right now.  As Theo once said, these opportunities are sacred. 

Regarding Smith - his value is just going up and up and Shaw's is going down and down.  His trade value is undeniably lower today than it would have been before his first call up to the big leagues.  You can't say the same thing about Smith.  

I am not just using that logic with Smith. You are right, Shaw may never make it. But 200 AB doesn’t tell me unequivocally that Smith will be a star and Shaw a bust. I also agree that right now Smith’s stock is going up while Shaw is going down. Wasn’t there a time the Sox wouldn’t trade Robert for PCA? How is that working now? It really doesn’t matter if a guys trade value is up or down when they aren’t looking to be traded anyway. No difference than your home value going up when you have no intention of selling. 
I also don’t disagree with getting Suarez to play 3rd this year. But I think adding pitching is more important. I wouldn’t object to adding Suarez. But that doesn’t mean I am giving up on Shaw. 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Turner has 60 PA vs LHP this year.  And that's playing all positions not just 1B.

I think it depends how July goes.  If Shaw is still struggling and Turner is whimpering or hurt maybe they grab a 1b/3b RHB if the right deal comes along.

SP is still definitely the priority though, and probably another pen arm.

Agreed. Not opposed to adding a right handed bat. But pitching comes first. 

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I am not just using that logic with Smith. You are right, Shaw may never make it. But 200 AB doesn’t tell me unequivocally that Smith will be a star and Shaw a bust. I also agree that right now Smith’s stock is going up while Shaw is going down. Wasn’t there a time the Sox wouldn’t trade Robert for PCA? How is that working now? It really doesn’t matter if a guys trade value is up or down when they aren’t looking to be traded anyway. No difference than your home value going up when you have no intention of selling. 
I also don’t disagree with getting Suarez to play 3rd this year. But I think adding pitching is more important. I wouldn’t object to adding Suarez. But that doesn’t mean I am giving up on Shaw. 

Player A (first 461 PAs at age 21): 116 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 8 BB%, .276/.342/.445
Player B (first 429 PAs at age 22): 82 wRC+, 24.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, .228/.282/.370

Two recent prospect callups in the last few seasons. Both highly regarded. Same draft class. One of these players has been worth -.5 fWAR (with a sparkling 65 wRC to boot since their debut) over their career. The other has been significantly better. It's not the player you think it is based on their entrance to the league. A few years back their trade value would have been very different, with Player A being one of the most coveted young players in baseball and potential to have been the most coveted. Today, you could argue no position player has more trade value than Player B.

(Just to help you make your point)

Spoiler

Player A is Jordan Walker
Player B is Pete Crow-Armstrong

 

[PeanutPunch33]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I am not just using that logic with Smith. You are right, Shaw may never make it. But 200 AB doesn’t tell me unequivocally that Smith will be a star and Shaw a bust. I also agree that right now Smith’s stock is going up while Shaw is going down. Wasn’t there a time the Sox wouldn’t trade Robert for PCA? How is that working now? It really doesn’t matter if a guys trade value is up or down when they aren’t looking to be traded anyway. No difference than your home value going up when you have no intention of selling. 
I also don’t disagree with getting Suarez to play 3rd this year. But I think adding pitching is more important. I wouldn’t object to adding Suarez. But that doesn’t mean I am giving up on Shaw. 

That's true, Shaw is basically a wild card at this point regarding his potential and future.  I just am not sure I see him as a key contributor this season and the idea of him getting all the playing time at 3b in a playoff series, honestly frightens me.  

IMO, the Cubs best path to a championship this year is to double down on their strengths.  The Rangers won a WS not too long ago by just out slugging everybody in the playoffs.  I don't personally think it's a bad strategy especially when the rumors are that they are looking at a journeyman like Luis Severino, or a 35-year-old Seth Lugo.  I personally don't think those guys move the needle that much.  

I would change my tune if they got a real, real difference maker at SP that's here for a while.  Like go out there and get Mackenzie Gore and give up 3-4 prospects and that would shut me up quickly.  Regardless of whether they get Suarez or not.  

 

Edited June 28, 2025 by PeanutPunch33

[PeanutPunch33]

21 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Cubs are 7th in MLB in OPS vs LHP.  Last month or 2 have been rough I agree.  PCA looks inept and they take Busch out of the lineup, so it hurts when a LHP neutralizes 2 of your best hitters.  Seiya/Dansby should help a bit there though.

That's true, I guess I have to not get so consumed by the last 6 week sample size.  The overall body of work against lefties is still pretty good.  It's just frustrating to see them completely dominated by LHP recently.. 

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, Stratos said:

What's the difference in a FA playing for us for a year vs playing for another team prior?  Tucker likely isn't giving the Cubs a discount.  400m is 400m.  If i'm Tucker i'm testing FA and going to the highest bidder, so the Ricketts need to pay up.  Given our payroll is embarrassingly low this year for a large market in a season where they're "all-in" I just don't see it as likely he signs here.  Nor do I think this brass would now choose to invest 400m on the basis of some kind of "emotional ties" built up over a year here.

Doesn't mean he doesn't resign, but nothing they've done since winning the WS would indicate there's much of a liklehood.  What would the betting odds be?  10% chance?

I think it is a huge difference. I also think if Ricketts didn’t intend on being aggressive with Tucker to retain him he wouldn’t have okayed the trade. That said. I would say the Cubs have maybe a 35 to 40% chance of keeping him. Which is pretty good. It is easy to say team A will not sign player A any FA year. I would guess you would be right 80% of the time.
He most likely won’t take a discount. I agree with that. But contracts are very complicated. If he likes Chicago he might be willing to work with the team to get a deal he can accept. And from Ricketts POV, it is harder to explain to fans how you lost a guy on your team who you wanted to keep than it is to tell your fanbase you tried on a particular guy from another team but he just didn’t want to play for Chicago or he just chose another team. 

[Derwood]

Seiya mashes lefties. Dansby mashes no one 

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Player A (first 461 PAs at age 21): 116 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 8 BB%, .276/.342/.445
Player B (first 429 PAs at age 22): 82 wRC+, 24.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, .228/.282/.370

Two recent prospect callups in the last few seasons. Both highly regarded. Same draft class. One of these players has been worth -.5 fWAR (with a sparkling 65 wRC to boot since their debut) over their career. The other has been significantly better. It's not the player you think it is based on their entrance to the league. A few years back their trade value would have been very different, with Player A being one of the most coveted young players in baseball and potential to have been the most coveted. Today, you could argue no position player has more trade value than Player B.

(Just to help you make your point)

  Hide contents

Player A is Jordan Walker
Player B is Pete Crow-Armstrong

 

Thank you

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

That's true, I guess I have to not get so consumed by the last 6 week sample size.  The overall body of work against lefties is still pretty good.  It's just frustrating to see them completely dominated by LHP recently.. 

The Cubs have faced 7 lefty starters this month.  Three of them are top 10 in the league in pitching WAR (Skubal, Gore, Luzardo).  Matthew Liberatore is one of the others, and while far from a star is certainly good.  Probably worth keeping the quality of competition in mind when you see these numbers about the team's June swoon against LHP.

[chopsx9]

For shits and giggles!!  Is it time to discuss the potential availability of one Javier Baez?

[Illiterate Scholar]

Give me an absolutely horsefeathers break with that play

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, chopsx9 said:

For shits and giggles!!  Is it time to discuss the potential availability of one Javier Baez?

Why would he be available?

[chibears55]

Come on Busch

[chopsx9]

Just now, chibears55 said:

Why would he be available?

The Tigers might jump at the opportunity to get out from under his contract thinking this might be their only chance.  It sounds like they have younger players for the positions he plays.

[Hot Sauce]

Love the patience!

[chibears55]

Come on Hoerner 

[chibears55]

2 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

The Tigers might jump at the opportunity to get out from under his contract thinking this might be their only chance.  It sounds like they have younger players for the positions he plays.

Isn't  he part of reason why theyre having a good season team wise and in first place