Cubs (Horton) vs Astros (Walter): 6/27/25, 7:10pm

[Brandon Glick]

Two 48-33 teams, both first place in their division. Good litmus test for where the Cubs are at.

[Outshined_One]

The Smith/Shaw comparisons in these upcoming game threads are going to drive me insane.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

The Smith/Shaw comparisons in these upcoming game threads are going to drive me insane.

It is going to be frustrating. Because I am sure most people are looking at half a season and going to decide Smith will be a star and Shaw is a bust. Cubs traded the wrong guy, etc, etc, etc. But there is so much gray in each of those comments. I remember just last year maybe close to this time in the season or might have been a little earlier. Some of our fanbase was down on Busch and commenting how come the Brewers can bring up Ortiz and he be good from the start. Some wanted Busch sent down. Same with Chorious and PCA. I think some fans loved Jordon Walker of the Cardinals. Just because one guy starts good and the other does not doesn’t dictate their career path. Smith might go on to be a star and Shaw might be a bust. But it can also go the other way. Most likely each player will land somewhere better than bust but less than all star. 200 AB does not determine a guys career. And as for the trade, to get a guy like Tucker you have to trade quality. Maybe we should thank Jed for drafting Smith, a guy the Astros wanted, in the first place. Maybe also thank him for trading Morel and Bjggie for Parades. Houston was said to be in on him at the deadline. Had Jed not gotten him we would have never had Tucker. 

[BKHoo]

I’m not sad we are going to miss Hunter Brown. That guy is the best starting pitcher in baseball this year so far. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Smith has been very good thus far, I know a lot were expecting him to fail because apparently spring training is completely meaningless but he definitely has been impressive so far. Last time I checked his numbers in the outfield were good too

[PeanutPunch33]

Shaw will be a good player, but Smith looks the part.  That kid will be a future superstar.  At this time last year he was a month or two removed from playing in college lol.  For him to do this with little minor league experience, is pretty impressive.  

If the Cubs keep Tucker around for the long term, it was 100% worth it though.  But that remains to be seen.  

[squally1313]

Going to be an annoying series. Astros are very, very good. Paredes and Smith have been good (and will be discussed here ad nauseam). Figure out a way to win one and move on. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Smith has been very good thus far, I know a lot were expecting him to fail because apparently spring training is completely meaningless but he definitely has been impressive so far. Last time I checked his numbers in the outfield were good too

He's been less good than the numbers look. His wRC+ against RHP is under 100, and his LHP wRC+ is carrying him. He's hit four home runs against LHP in just 41 PA's where as he has one HR against RHP. He's hit just two home runs over his last two months; a two home run game in Sacramento against JP Sears; one of the worst LHP starts in baseball thus far. 

Two of his other home runs came in a game on the 18th of April. One of those two was a HR only because of the Crawford boxes (it was a home run in only 1/30 ballparks). They were both off of Kyle Hart, a replacement level pitcher who has since been sent to Triple-A (where h's been terrible at).

That isn't to entirely diminish his season, those are real outcomes, you can't simply ignore them and good hitters beat up on bad pitching...but I think the wRC+ and the total line makes him seem like he's been really good, that he's been 15% better than league average. A dive into the numbers suggest that he's probably been less good then that most nights.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Smith also is running a .365 BABIP, which is not going to continue, at which point he'll need his K rate and his power production to move in a more positive direction.  He's acquitted himself better than I thought he would so far, and good for him on that, I'm a Cam Smith fan.  But at the same time he hasn't done anything to meaningfully change his future projection, especially since he's already gotten moved off the infield.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Smith has been very good thus far, I know a lot were expecting him to fail because apparently spring training is completely meaningless but he definitely has been impressive so far. Last time I checked his numbers in the outfield were good too

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/workmga01.shtml

 

[PeanutPunch33]

54 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Smith also is running a .365 BABIP, which is not going to continue, at which point he'll need his K rate and his power production to move in a more positive direction.  He's acquitted himself better than I thought he would so far, and good for him on that, I'm a Cam Smith fan.  But at the same time he hasn't done anything to meaningfully change his future projection, especially since he's already gotten moved off the infield.

I think it's fair to say though that he's been an average player his rookie year, all things considered.  And that's pretty impressive for a guy who has a negligible amount of minor league experience, in his rookie year, and first year playing in a new organization.  

With that being said... I saw on MLB network today that Tuck has an OPS of .901 against lefties this year.  That's pretty wild.  Not sure what more this guy needs to do to get 500 mill from the Cubs 

Edited June 27, 2025 by PeanutPunch33

[Eeyore]

12 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I think it's fair to say though that he's been an average player his rookie year, all things considered.  And that's pretty impressive for a guy who has a negligible amount of minor league experience.  

With that being said... I saw on MLB network today that Tuck has an OPS of .901 against lefties this year.  That's pretty wild.  Not sure what more this guy needs to do to get 500 mill from the Cubs 

I'd be surprised if they were to re-sign him no matter what he does.

[gflore34]

Just asking - Is it allowed for the players the Cubs acquired to have big games vs. their former teams or, is having big games against your former team just reserved for guys the Cubs traded away? 

Edited June 27, 2025 by gflore34

[Dfan25]

Damn , didn’t realized Brewers play the Rockies this weekend , while the Cubs are in Houston .

 

Series looks really rough . Astros are red hot , just swept Phillies . They have Framber in game 3 . Weak part of cubs rotation .  Bats will need to score a lot of runs 

Edited June 27, 2025 by Dfan25

[Rcal10]

Sure hope we can get this one. Not encouraged by the next 2 match ups. We need the first one. Plus, I will be at this game. So, GO CUBS!!! 

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Sure hope we can get this one. Not encouraged by the next 2 match ups. We need the first one. Plus, I will be at this game. So, GO CUBS!!! 

Game 2, who's starting for the Astros?  Because outside of Valdez and Brown the rest of their starters don't appear to be imposing.  Or, is because, regardless of who the Astros are starting, the Cubs have Rea going for them in second game?

[Soul]

It would be awesome to be able to laugh at Brewers fans as they clobber the Rockies but gain no ground.

 

GO CUBS

[BKHoo]

3 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Shaw will be a good player, but Smith looks the part.  That kid will be a future superstar.  At this time last year he was a month or two removed from playing in college lol.  For him to do this with little minor league experience, is pretty impressive.  

If the Cubs keep Tucker around for the long term, it was 100% worth it though.  But that remains to be seen.  

Jed had to prove himself THIS year. Tucker was the trade to do that with and I still doubt he signs here long term. 

[BKHoo]

2 minutes ago, Soul said:

It would be awesome to be able to laugh at Brewers fans as they clobber the Rockies but gain no ground.

 

 

GO CUBS

Are we all in agreement that the Brewers are the threat to the division title? They  are playing great and their pitching is coming along nicely. 

[chibears55]

Are there more starting lefty pitchers then usual this season, just seems like theyre always facing a lefty.

[Rcal10]

34 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Game 2, who's starting for the Astros?  Because outside of Valdez and Brown the rest of their starters don't appear to be imposing.  Or, is because, regardless of who the Astros are starting, the Cubs have Rea going for them in second game?

Yes, Rea pitching hinders the Cubs chances. 

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Jed had to prove himself THIS year. Tucker was the trade to do that with and I still doubt he signs here long term. 

Can people give it a rest with the same old comment “Cubs won’t resign Tucker” ? Can we just let the season play out and see what happpens? No one knows what they will end up doing. 

[chibears55]

18 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Jed had to prove himself THIS year. Tucker was the trade to do that with and I still doubt he signs here long term. 

Yes, I think Jed sacrificed a future piece to bring in the best hitter available that also fit under the budget for 1 year to compete.

Now that theyre in a very good position to not just win a weakened division but also now compete for a league championship and go to the WS, Jed might have to give up their best prospect in Caissie to get an elite SP to continue to keep that opportunity strong in the second half of season. 

Here the downside to that..

If they dont win the WS and they also end up not resigning Tucker, now they not only end up on losing Cam for a 1 year rental but now they lose Caissie who is probably the current back up plan for losing out on Tucker to FA.

So, I know prospects are crap shoot but damn can you imagine in 3 years we're watching both Cam Smith and Owen Caissie turning into All Stars and top players in the league for 1 year of good baseball, that would be the Cubs luck.🤦‍♂️

[chibears55]

50 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Game 2, who's starting for the Astros?  Because outside of Valdez and Brown the rest of their starters don't appear to be imposing.  Or, is because, regardless of who the Astros are starting, the Cubs have Rea going for them in second game?

I dont know the Astros SP situation but yea i would guess they could be thinking because of Rea being on the mound they could afford going with a bullpen game or sn opener and first time Starter from their system. 

[chibears55]

42 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Are we all in agreement that the Brewers are the threat to the division title? They  are playing great and their pitching is coming along nicely. 

Brewers are always a threat but they tend to not improve on their roster much if at all at the deadline, so the Cubs or even the Cardinals if they choose to add to payroll ( I dont think they will this season) can upgrade enough to pass them or distance themselves from the Brewers eventually.