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[BigbadB]

9 hours ago, gflore34 said:

I would. I think he's done with the Marlins and would dramatically improve as a Cub.

He has to know his best chances of leaving the Marlins is pitching well, even if there is nothing inspiring about playing for a last place team. What is different about his peripherals right now that has his stats suffering so badly?

[Rcal10]

10 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Alcantara with yet another awful start. 

4IP 7H 6ER 4BB 0K

I legitimately would not put him in the Cub rotation even if the Marlins just gave him to the Cubs.

I think I would take him if the Marlins gave him to the Cubs. But I certainly wouldn’t have him on my radar as a guy to trade for, especially at any significant cost. Let someone else take a chance on him. I also agree that right now, I wouldn’t want him in the rotation. 

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

He has to know his best chances of leaving the Marlins is pitching well, even if there is nothing inspiring about playing for a last place team. What is different about his peripherals right now that has his stats suffering so badly?

It's not one big thing, it's a little bit of everything.  Plus a heaping helping of bad luck piled on top of it.

If the Cubs were worse, or if money looked less tight next year, I'd be interested.  But as it stands I don't think this team should be the ones to try and fix him unless Hottovy/Zombro *know* exactly what's wrong.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

It's not one big thing, it's a little bit of everything.  Plus a heaping helping of bad luck piled on top of it.

If the Cubs were worse, or if money looked less tight next year, I'd be interested.  But as it stands I don't think this team should be the ones to try and fix him unless Hottovy/Zombro *know* exactly what's wrong.

But it still comes down to asset cost. As an example, if the Cubs could get Keller for less than it cost for Alcantara I would take Keller. I know you don’t think the Pirates will deal Keller, but I am just using him in this example. Basically a solid MOR guy.
If the Marlins insist on a return as if he is a TOR starter he is a hard pass. If they think he is broken and take lesser assets, then maybe the Cubs look at him if they believe they can fix him. 

[BearDown1223]

Still a really long time to go, but if Diamondbacks and Braves fall out of it, what do you guys think about Gallen or Sale?  Think those teams would make them available?  

Sale is interesting as he has a club option for 2026 at $18M. 

[gflore34]

On 5/29/2025 at 10:18 AM, Rcal10 said:

But it still comes down to asset cost. As an example, if the Cubs could get Keller for less than it cost for Alcantara I would take Keller. I know you don’t think the Pirates will deal Keller, but I am just using him in this example. Basically a solid MOR guy.
If the Marlins insist on a return as if he is a TOR starter he is a hard pass. If they think he is broken and take lesser assets, then maybe the Cubs look at him if they believe they can fix him. 

Maybe this unrealistic doom bonnering on my part nevertheless, watch the Cardinals trade for Alcantara with lesser assets.  And Alcantara, as a Cardinal, instantly regains his Cy Young form and becomes a TOR ace - we've seen this horsefeathers play before.  Early 2000's everything those mother horsefeathers touched turned to gold now, it was probably a by product of good scouting still, every horsefeathers trade worked for them.  

Edited May 30, 2025 by gflore34

[chibears55]

On 5/28/2025 at 10:04 PM, gflore34 said:

I would. I think he's done with the Marlins and would dramatically improve as a Cub.

Yea, some guys just need that change of scenery to a better team in a playoff run to amp up a bit.

Id take him but only if it doesn't cost too much in trading away their top prospects 

[gflore34]

53 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Yea, some guys just need that change of scenery to a better team in a playoff run to amp up a bit.

Id take him but only if it doesn't cost too much in trading away their top prospects 

Right now his trade value is probably down, Cubs should try to buy low on him.   I've no doubt those pissbirds are looking to do the same.

Edited May 30, 2025 by gflore34

[Bertz]

Dbacks are about to be 9 games out of the division and 6 games out of the wildcard.  Probably a good team to keep an eye on for the deadline.

[We Got The Whole 9]

19 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Dbacks are about to be 9 games out of the division and 6 games out of the wildcard.  Probably a good team to keep an eye on for the deadline.

-RD too. Disappointing season so far for them. 

[Donzo]

Horton is going to be on some type of inning limitation (100 to 125 inngs I'm guessing).

Do we know what the game plan is for this situation? Just pitch him until he hits his limit and that's it for the year or do they try to save him for postseason work?!?

[We Got The Whole 9]

12 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Horton is going to be on some type of inning limitation (100 to 125 inngs I'm guessing).

Do we know what the game plan is for this situation? Just pitch him until he hits his limit and that's it for the year or do they try to save him for postseason work?!?

We have to ask the same of Brown, who just surpassed his 2024 IP total and last crossed 100 in 2022. 

If it were up to me I would let them go, but they're gonna have to make some trades. They can't count on Assad. Hoyer isn't going to gamble with his young arms like that. So realistically he needs to add 2 significant arms to the rotation IMO. 

 

 

[Bertz]

52 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Horton is going to be on some type of inning limitation (100 to 125 inngs I'm guessing).

Do we know what the game plan is for this situation? Just pitch him until he hits his limit and that's it for the year or do they try to save him for postseason work?!?

I would suspect it's one of two paths, and which one they go with depends on how well he's pitching:

1.  Let him pitch until July when reinforcements arrive (whether that's Assad or a trade piece) and then IL him for a ~month to catch his breath.  Put him back into the rotation in September

2. Let him pitch until July when reinforcements arrive, and then shift him into a relief role for the rest of the year

I think if he's pitching really well you go with door #1, if he's pitching just solidly like he has to this point you go with door #2.  But to your point yeah it's probably about 120 innings as the target for this year.

[squally1313]

28 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I would suspect it's one of two paths, and which one they go with depends on how well he's pitching:

1.  Let him pitch until July when reinforcements arrive (whether that's Assad or a trade piece) and then IL him for a ~month to catch his breath.  Put him back into the rotation in September

2. Let him pitch until July when reinforcements arrive, and then shift him into a relief role for the rest of the year

I think if he's pitching really well you go with door #1, if he's pitching just solidly like he has to this point you go with door #2.  But to your point yeah it's probably about 120 innings as the target for this year.

Yeah that math checks out and makes me feel a little better. Issue is that that answer also probably applies to Brown (and that's before *gestures at Matt Boyd's entire history*). I don't really consider Assad as 'reinforcements' as much as 'another Colin Rea', but in theory we have a good amount of cushion by that point. 

[Bertz]

24 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah that math checks out and makes me feel a little better. Issue is that that answer also probably applies to Brown (and that's before *gestures at Matt Boyd's entire history*). I don't really consider Assad as 'reinforcements' as much as 'another Colin Rea', but in theory we have a good amount of cushion by that point. 

Yeah all three guys are going to have limitations.  There's likely an age component at play which should help Boyd and to a lesser extent Brown.  If you look at the reliever to starter converters like Seth Lugo, they seem to have an innings cap of ~150 innings their first year in the rotation.  So I'd look at something in that range for Boyd, and thus he probably just needs a small breather at some point.  A minimum IL stint probably covers it?

The team definitely needs a starter who can take a playoff start, but assuming we avoid more catastrophic injuries like Steele's I'm not too worried about competently covering innings.

[Rcal10]

58 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah all three guys are going to have limitations.  There's likely an age component at play which should help Boyd and to a lesser extent Brown.  If you look at the reliever to starter converters like Seth Lugo, they seem to have an innings cap of ~150 innings their first year in the rotation.  So I'd look at something in that range for Boyd, and thus he probably just needs a small breather at some point.  A minimum IL stint probably covers it?

The team definitely needs a starter who can take a playoff start, but assuming we avoid more catastrophic injuries like Steele's I'm not too worried about competently covering innings.

I would agree. As long as Imanaga comes back mid June the Cubs can manipulate the rotation to allow for guys to pitch less. Maybe a 6 man staff. Maybe they skip Brown, Boyd, Horton or Rea a time or two to limit innings. If they add a high end pitcher who can give them innings at the deadline they would have that guy, Imanaga and Taillon who won’t have innings issues. They would have Rea, Brown, Horton and Boyd to use for the last few spots in the rotation, which should allow them to limit them. Maybe they even get some innings from Assad and Wicks. They will have to play the long game and there are going to be times when people are going to be frustrated with Counsell for his rotation use. But I do trust him to do the right thing with the guys he has. If they go into the playoffs with Imanaga, Horton, whoever they trade for and Taillon and/or Boyd all being able to start I feel pretty good about their rotation. No, they can’t match the Phillies and probably the Dodgers if they are healthy. But each of those guys gives the Cubs a decent chance of winning a game and a series. 

[squally1313]

You guys aren't wrong and I'm tiring myself out from harping on the same line of attack, so I assume everyone else really hates it, but we're down the two pitchers who were, besides Taillon, injured the least last year, and we're planning on this scheduled out return from injury/trade/bullpen movement stuff while ignoring the main cause of all the headaches in the first place: Brown and Horton and Boyd are all limited this year not because they're young, but because they are pitchers and pitchers break, and they all got hurt last year, and injuries aren't just things that happen every other year.

I'm not asking for Gore or a fixed Alcantara on June 2nd, but even a Trevor Williams/name a Colin Rea equivalent that could let us put Horton on the shelf for a month now would be nice. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

I wonder if Jed would have interest in Morton for the steady innings eater with playoff experience who shouldn't cost much of anything.

[CubUgly]

4 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

We have to ask the same of Brown, who just surpassed his 2024 IP total and last crossed 100 in 2022. 

If it were up to me I would let them go, but they're gonna have to make some trades. They can't count on Assad. Hoyer isn't going to gamble with his young arms like that. So realistically he needs to add 2 significant arms to the rotation IMO. 

 

 

Sharma keeps saying they use different means of measuring that now and the old you don't let them throw more than 30 innings than they did the year before is out of vogue.  Instead, they are incorporating factors like pitch velocity, fatigue, recovery, and potentially wearable technology to gain a more nuanced understanding of a pitcher's physical state. This shift is driven by the realization that traditional measures like pitch count don't fully capture the complexities of a pitcher's performance and risk of injury. 

[Rcal10]

With the Dbacks falling back does Gallen and/or Kelly make sense. Both FA at the end of this year. Gallen has been really bad, put before this year he has been very good. Could he be this years version of Sutcliffe of ‘84? Sutcliffe had an era over 5 when the Cubs traded for him. People of a certain age know the rest. 

[Bertz]

31 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Sharma keeps saying they use different means of measuring that now and the old you don't let them throw more than 30 innings than they did the year before is out of vogue.  Instead, they are incorporating factors like pitch velocity, fatigue, recovery, and potentially wearable technology to gain a more nuanced understanding of a pitcher's physical state. This shift is driven by the realization that traditional measures like pitch count don't fully capture the complexities of a pitcher's performance and risk of injury. 

They said similar with Steele/Alzolay/Thompson a few years ago.  I suspect these measures help them "land the plane" so to speak as opposed to allow them to go way over their projections.  E.g. if they were expecting 120 IP out of Horton coming into the year, these would help them navigate between 100-140 rather than open up the possibility of like 180.

I think these measures also are why they don't just do what Squally is saying and trade for someone now and put Horton on the phantom IL.  As much as we refer to a pitcher's innings as bullets it's not really so clean and zero sum in practice.

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

They said similar with Steele/Alzolay/Thompson a few years ago.  I suspect these measures help them "land the plane" so to speak as opposed to allow them to go way over their projections.  E.g. if they were expecting 120 IP out of Horton coming into the year, these would help them navigate between 100-140 rather than open up the possibility of like 180.

I think these measures also are why they don't just do what Squally is saying and trade for someone now and put Horton on the phantom IL.  As much as we refer to a pitcher's innings as bullets it's not really so clean and zero sum in practice.

On the last part, I also think it's important to remember that this is great developmental time for Cade Horton. I had written prior to his last start a few things I'd like to see Horton work on and the Cubs will have to balance his ability to learn, develop and pitch against MLB hitters as well as when they decide to ramp him down/pump-the-brakes. What probably wouldn't help is that right as he's working on making those changes, getting familiar and confident with the changeup, would be to full-stop IL him until July, have him re-ramp up and build stamina, lose a full month of pitching against MLB hitters and then throw him back to the wolves. 

I'm not sure when they should pump those brakes...but it's also why I write here and I don't work for the Cubs.

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, Donzo said:

Horton is going to be on some type of inning limitation (100 to 125 inngs I'm guessing).

Do we know what the game plan is for this situation? Just pitch him until he hits his limit and that's it for the year or do they try to save him for postseason work?!?

Pitching injuries spiked dramatically league-wide in 2021 because of the short season in 2020, even after teams limited pitch counts in 2021.  It even carried over to 2022 and a bit in 2023.  They need to be careful here, Horton only threw 34 IP last year.

You're right, at this pace there's just no way he's pitching in the post-season.  But he could also get hurt at any time and miss a couple of months so it may not be an issue.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, CubUgly said:

Sharma keeps saying they use different means of measuring that now and the old you don't let them throw more than 30 innings than they did the year before is out of vogue.  Instead, they are incorporating factors like pitch velocity, fatigue, recovery, and potentially wearable technology to gain a more nuanced understanding of a pitcher's physical state. This shift is driven by the realization that traditional measures like pitch count don't fully capture the complexities of a pitcher's performance and risk of injury. 

Yeah there's wearables guys can use when they work on the side to track usage there.   Not sure how many use them though.

[CubUgly]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Yeah there's wearables guys can use when they work on the side to track usage there.   Not sure how many use them though.

According to Sharma the Cubs use them, not sure who and how many.