Sources: Cubs Have Discussed Trade With San Diego Padres for Right-Handed Starter Michael King

[Matthew Trueblood]

Although they've turned their attention partially to free agents after their weekend bullpen trade, the Chicago Cubs are not done exploring the possibility of larger moves that could shake up their roster.

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

According to two sources with knowledge of the teams' conversations, the Chicago Cubs are among the handful of teams who have inquired about the possibility of acquiring San Diego Padres starter Michael King. The two sides have touched base about multiple potential deals this winter, as the Padres try to navigate a uniquely confining combination of big offseason needs and a budget that needs to be slashed in response to both shrinking television revenues and the altered, uncertain ownership situation of the team. 

King, 29, will be eligible to reach free agency at the end of 2025. He was the Padres' biggest get in the Juan Soto trade last winter, but is available again now, not only because the team has a general need to cut salary but because he and the team have not yet settled on a salary for this season. They exchanged arbitration figures of $8.8 million (the player) and $7.325 million (the team) earlier this month, and the lack of cost certainty is especially unwelcome for San Diego at the moment. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller is tasked with cutting the team's payroll enough to get them under the lowest competitive-balance tax threshold for this season, which stands at $241 million. They're currently just under $247 million, using the midpoint between King's and the club's number to project his earnings, meaning they need to cut significantly—because they also find themselves essentially without a starting catcher or a credible left fielder, and would like to add another starting pitcher to make themselves credible contenders in the NL West.

Given that long shopping list and their financial shortfall, Preller has been patient this winter, knowing all along he would need to get aggressive in the endgame of the offseason. If the team had successfully wooed Roki Sasaki, their offseason could have assumed a slightly different shape, but in the 10 days since he made his decision, Preller has circled back to several teams with whom he had more general discussions earlier to take a harder look at certain options.

King's name is relatively new to the list of players the team has made available, joining more expensive and more oft-bandied options Luis Arraez ($14 million), Dylan Cease ($13.75 million) and Robert Suarez ($10 million). It's unlikely that the Padres will trade all four, but trading one or two seems "almost inevitable," according to one source familiar with the club's thinking. It's possible that three of the quartet will be shipped out, as Preller tries to amass a huge amount of viable big-league talent while maintaining financial flexibility and capturing long-term team control. Preller's advantages, now, are that all four players have garnered at least some interest, and that he has five open 40-man roster spots to play with, at a juncture of the winter when most teams are struggling to consolidate overloaded rosters.

Arraez and Suarez have much less trade value than Cease and King, however, and might net Preller nothing more than freedom from the obligation to pay them. Arraez's 2024 marked his third straight batting title, but it also saw him evolve ever more into a one-dimensional singles hitter, without even enough walks to make his on-base percentage as his batting average. Suarez, meanwhile, has not only that eight-figure salary for 2025, but player options he can trigger for 2026 and 2027. He's already in his mid-30s, making many teams raise an eyebrow at that contract structure.

One version of a deal the Cubs and Padres have explored could send King and Suarez to Chicago, with multiple young, controllable pieces going back to San Diego. Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Kevin Alcántara are potential pieces in a return. One way or another, the deal would probably include players with MLB experience and/or those very close to the majors, like those three, as opposed to far-off prospects. That would align with Preller's goal of staying competitive while escaping the financial purgatory into which his past willingness to lock into long-term deals (and the death of free-spending former owner Peter Seidler) have pushed him. It could also mean netting the Cubs a freed-up roster spot, an important consideration given that they currently have two pending moves (the Jon Berti signing and the Ryan Pressly trade) and a full 40-man roster that doesn;t count either of them.

In another scenario (less exciting for Cubs fans, but perhaps more probable), the Padres might connect with the Twins on a trade to bring in catcher Christian Vázquez, with the Cubs acquiring Suarez in a three-team arrangement to make the money work. That possibility underscores something that has slipped past the notice of many fans this winter, largely because it makes such a poor match with the broader narratives about the team: the Cubs are one of the few teams able and willing to add money this winter, even if much of that is because of the money that came off their books in the fall. It was Chicago's willingness to pay when others weren't that facilitated their trades for Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly, from Houston, in addition to their handful of small free-agent additions. Now, late in the winter, they're positioned to land another player or two at what they might consider an unusually palatable cost in talent, largely because they have financial freedom that their trade partners lack. The Twins are in a less extreme version of the Padres' situation, so any trade that sends Vázquez from one place to the other is likely to require someone to act as an intermediary—a money sink.

If the Cubs do land King, look for them to broach a long-term extension with him in spring training. That's still several twists of the drama from now, but the team has liked King for years, dating back to his time with the Yankees. Because he's bloomed late and dealt with injury issues after being a late-round pick with a small initial signing bonus, King (unlike Tucker, or Cease, for that matter) is a good candidate for an extension even a year out from free agency. He had a 2.95 ERA in 173 1/3 innings in 2024, well-supported by his peripheral numbers, and the Cubs love his arsenal. They might be willing to pay more for him than they would for Cease, not only because he'd cost them less in 2025 monetarily, but because they would view King as a possible long-term piece.

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[Jason Ross]

Big "yes" for me on Michael King and would really be a nice addition. 

[squally1313]

Yeah give me either of the two starters. Suarez doesn't do a whole lot for me, Arraez less than nothing, but adding a top 10 RHP (2nd and 7th in RHP fWAR last year) to the Steele/Shota/Boyd dynamic would be pretty ideal. 

[Bertz]

King would be exciting and take this offseason from good to great.  Even if you don't extend him, you can go into next winter with two QO free agents and basically commit yourself to retaining one of them (obviously Tucker would be top priority).

I will say, given the drop-off from Cease to King, plus the presumed inclusion of Suarez, I don't think you can include Brown or Alcantara.  I think Preller needs to take back a bit more quantity over quality in this instance.  Assad/Wicks/Caissie instead of Brown/Alcantara for example.

[JBears79]

Id love to add King but Brown or Alcantara seems a bit much

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

King would be exciting and take this offseason from good to great.  Even if you don't extend him, you can go into next winter with two QO free agents and basically commit yourself to retaining one of them (obviously Tucker would be top priority).

I will say, given the drop-off from Cease to King, plus the presumed inclusion of Suarez, I don't think you can include Brown or Alcantara.  I think Preller needs to take back a bit more quantity over quality in this instance.  Assad/Wicks/Caissie instead of Brown/Alcantara for example.

So you are saying Wicks, Assad and Cassie for King and Suarez? That does weaken the pitching depth a bit, after 2025. But it certainly would make the Cubs very formidable. 

[chopsx9]

[Tryptamine]

Look, I'd absolutely love to add King, but you just cannot trade for both Tucker and King if you're not resigning at least one of them. That is just a huge waste of assets betting it all on 2025. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Look, I'd absolutely love to add King, but you just cannot trade for both Tucker and King if you're not resigning at least one of them. That is just a huge waste of assets betting it all on 2025. 

You also get assets back if you don't sign them, plus a head start both in terms of time and cost in re-signing them.  But yes, as Bertz alluded to, Plan A would not be letting both walk.

[squally1313]

Trading for one year of a players production and then trying to sign them at theoretical market rates are two different transactions and should be treated as such. The cost of a Tucker or King type player with multiple years of control would be significantly higher than what we gave up (slash what we're discussing giving up). 

Putting that kind of weight on a future extension when judging the merits of a potential trade is a good way to never make these kind of trades. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’d still rather hold out for one of the two Mariners. The way I sees it they and King are equally available

 

That may be the way you see it. But the Mariners have given no indication they plan on trading either Kirby or Gilbert. 

[Post Count Padder]

I'd love King but another big trade for a rental seems unlikely to me.

That said, if we could swing a deal with Morejon included to beef it up, I'm game.

Assad, Alcantara/Caissie, Aliendo (they desperately need upper level catching) and Pedro Ramirez?

[squally1313]

21 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

I'd love King but another big trade for a rental seems unlikely to me.

That said, if we could swing a deal with Morejon included to beef it up, I'm game.

Assad, Alcantara/Caissie, Aliendo (they desperately need upper level catching) and Pedro Ramirez?

I'm going to push back on the distinction of 'rental' just a little bit. This isn't mid July, we'd get a full year of starts out of him. This is a guy who, minimum 200 innings the last two years, is 6th in ERA, 12th in FIP, and 14th in xFIP. You can rely on that production for a team that has serious playoff aspirations immediately. Trading for a hypothetical Michael King with 2-3 years remaining on his contract basically starts with Shaw and/or PCA.

Losing a Caissie or Alcantara hurts, but not going to lose sleep over them not sitting behind a fully blocked outfield for what is in all likelihood another 2 years. Or whatever concerns I have will be assuaged by having the 9th, 15th, 18th, and 27th best 2024 starters ERAs (minimum 30 innings, yes I know I'm cherrypicking). 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm going to push back on the distinction of 'rental' just a little bit. This isn't mid July, we'd get a full year of starts out of him. This is a guy who, minimum 200 innings the last two years, is 6th in ERA, 12th in FIP, and 14th in xFIP. You can rely on that production for a team that has serious playoff aspirations immediately. Trading for a hypothetical Michael King with 2-3 years remaining on his contract basically starts with Shaw and/or PCA.

Losing a Caissie or Alcantara hurts, but not going to lose sleep over them not sitting behind a fully blocked outfield for what is in all likelihood another 2 years. Or whatever concerns I have will be assuaged by having the 9th, 15th, 18th, and 27th best 2024 starters ERAs (minimum 30 innings, yes I know I'm cherrypicking). 

On top of this, the Cubs' farm currently is basically this

Where the car is Iowa.  So I don't want Jed to be a drunken sailor in dealing from that stockpile at AAA, but getting a borderline ace and essentially an IOU for a 2026 2nd round pick isn't the worst thing in the world from an organizational health standpoint.  In moderation of course.

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

On top of this, the Cubs' farm currently is basically this

Where the car is Iowa.  So I don't want Jed to be a drunken sailor in dealing from that stockpile at AAA, but getting a borderline ace and essentially an IOU for a 2026 2nd round pick isn't the worst thing in the world from an organizational health standpoint.  In moderation of course.

Yeah I don't think you should obsess over the timing of the Waves (c), but the team is clearly in its competitive window with the major league roster, which includes4 very good outfielders, hopefully all signed for at least two years, and two of its top 5 prospects are outfielders with very little to prove in the minors. Not ideal timing, but it's what we've got. And it seems a little rash to empty the chamber on a one/two year window, but the window is slowly getting stretched out (a Tucker extension would greatly help there). Dansby, Shota, Busch, PCA, Hodge are all here for four plus years, Steele for three, hopefully Brown/Wicks/Amaya proves worth of joining that group this year. 

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I don't think you should obsess over the timing of the Waves (c), but the team is clearly in its competitive window with the major league roster, which includes4 very good outfielders, hopefully all signed for at least two years, and two of its top 5 prospects are outfielders with very little to prove in the minors. Not ideal timing, but it's what we've got. And it seems a little rash to empty the chamber on a one/two year window, but the window is slowly getting stretched out (a Tucker extension would greatly help there). Dansby, Shota, Busch, PCA, Hodge are all here for four plus years, Steele for three, hopefully Brown/Wicks/Amaya proves worth of joining that group this year. 

I don’t have much of an issue trading for King. But including Brown and Wicks in the mix of a window expanding to later years, might not come to pass. Those guys might be in the trade. 

[Post Count Padder]

One thing that could help push a trade with the Cubs is the Padres have absolutely nothing in terms of OF depth. Both in AAA and the prospect pool. I was looking at last year's lists and their depth chart and it's basically just Tirso Ornelas. And their AAA OF includes Cole Roederer and Yonathan Perlaza. Heck even Canario might be enticing (not in place of a big prospect, just a sweetener and help out our 40 man crunch).

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t have much of an issue trading for King. But including Brown and Wicks in the mix of a window expanding to later years, might not come to pass. Those guys might be in the trade. 

Sure, but Horton and Birdsell could be. At that level you get a lot more fungible. I forgot Shaw too. And then just make more prospects. 

[ryanrc]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I'm going to push back on the distinction of 'rental' just a little bit. This isn't mid July, we'd get a full year of starts out of him. This is a guy who, minimum 200 innings the last two years, is 6th in ERA, 12th in FIP, and 14th in xFIP. You can rely on that production for a team that has serious playoff aspirations immediately. Trading for a hypothetical Michael King with 2-3 years remaining on his contract basically starts with Shaw and/or PCA.

Losing a Caissie or Alcantara hurts, but not going to lose sleep over them not sitting behind a fully blocked outfield for what is in all likelihood another 2 years. Or whatever concerns I have will be assuaged by having the 9th, 15th, 18th, and 27th best 2024 starters ERAs (minimum 30 innings, yes I know I'm cherrypicking). 

You nailed it here. A one year contract for about 8 million, for a guy who was 12th in FIP and is good for 30 starts is tremendously cheap - I'd be willing to give up about 20 million worth of player WAR for that. 

Lessee: Assad is close to a straight-up fair trade!

Assad is worth about 15 mil a year, currently; however, he also has 3 more years of full control, options in 2025, and 3 more years of discount salary due to arbitration system.  

Let's throw in Alexander Canario (LF), though, so SD has a reasonable competitor for a 1 WAR starting left field role, on the cheap. I would prefer to pick up a better bat on a one year contract and let him go.  His arm doesnt play in right field, and his range isnt quite good enough for center.  I just can't see intentionally platooning Canario with PCA and talking him off the field, the way I could see with a Grichuk or Laureano's .800+ OPS against lefties.  He could help San Diego more than us.  

This rotation is awesome though : Steele, King, Imanaga, Taillon, Boyd .... with Rea as swing man and Cody Poteet as the next guy up. Oh yeah, that'll play.