Levine: Alex Bregman Open to Short-Term Deals, Cubs Have Talked to Scott Boras About It

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, JD94 said:

We can’t have it both ways. Mad they won’t sign enough good players and mad when they try to sign a good player you don’t want. Maybe this is Jed saying “I have extra money to spend, why sit on it when I can go get a really good player?” Maybe Preller isn’t budging off Shaw for Cease and that’s just not a realistic possibility. Adding Bregman makes us better than we are today. Period. You can’t argue that. I will not fault Jed for making moves that make this ball club better. I hope he gets it done. 
 

As 1908 said, then you have time to see if Shaw is ready and potentially move Nico for pitching over the next couple of months. 

This is true. I guess you can see how Shaw does early if nice missed time. If he hits a trade doesn’t have to be Nico. It can be Suzuki instead. Maybe a trade deadline trade similar to the Lester for Cespedes deal goes down at the ASB. 

[Stratos]

59 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

I don’t get it

 

 

Wow.  I mean again it could all be Boras smoke.  And also Hoyer's job is on the hot seat. Is he going to risk his job betting that Matt Shaw has a good rookie year and Dansby and Nico recover from surgery well?

Nor sure yet what i think, but 4 years is a lot better than 6+.  Bregman will be 31 on March 30.

If this happens I can see Nico being traded next offseason and Shaw at 2b.  If he opts out Shaw is at 3b and Triantos is still a 2b option whenever Nico leaves.

[BobbyD3]

Ryan Brasier a Cub?  This seems to only solidify the Bregman talk.

[JD94]

3 minutes ago, BobbyD3 said:

Ryan Brasier a Cub?  This seems to only solidify the Bregman talk.

This was my exact thought as well. Cheaper than Robertson which gives a little more wiggle room to sign Bregman. 

[Stratos]

41 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I did make a suggestion a few days ago that maybe the Cubs did offer a multi year, creative deal, But I was was told that wasn’t a possibility. Looks like that is exactly what they did. As for being excited about it, I can’t say I am. I feel there is better use of $25M to $30M for this team. I saw Grichek signed for $5M. He would have been a good bench bat. I would think Canha can’t be more. I would be happy with him and Robertson as FA and a trade for Cease. I like that better than adding Bregman.  

If the choice is something like Canha + Moncada + Robertson versus Bregman, I'm well in the camp for Bregman.

How many recent seasons have we wasted many millions on near-replacement dudes or old guys that fall apart?  I don't mind Robertson but he's 40, and as for the others we should be allocating our millions towards real talent.

[UMFan83]

31 minutes ago, JD94 said:

We can’t have it both ways. Mad they won’t sign enough good players and mad when they try to sign a good player you don’t want. Maybe this is Jed saying “I have extra money to spend, why sit on it when I can go get a really good player?” Maybe Preller isn’t budging off Shaw for Cease and that’s just not a realistic possibility. Adding Bregman makes us better than we are today. Period. You can’t argue that. I will not fault Jed for making moves that make this ball club better. I hope he gets it done. 
 

As 1908 said, then you have time to see if Shaw is ready and potentially move Nico for pitching over the next couple of months. 

My question is, does acquiring Bregman hurt the Cubs ability to sign Tucker to an extension?  I’m still of the belief that Jed acquired him for 1 year and isn’t going to break the bank for him (although will make an effort to keep him). If Bregman opts in does that $30m weigh them down?

[Jason Ross]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

My question is, does acquiring Bregman hurt the Cubs ability to sign Tucker to an extension?  I’m still of the belief that Jed acquired him for 1 year and isn’t going to break the bank for him (although will make an effort to keep him). If Bregman opts in does that $30m weigh them down?

It'd probably make things more difficult. With that said, the only money on the Cubs books past 2026 is Swanson, so it would come down to the Cubs willingness to be above the LT next year. They could, conceivably, find some money to offset that in 2026 - trading Hoerner's $12m and Jameson Taillon's $18m would, conveniently match the $30m, and probably wouldn't be an impossible task as long as they stay healthy and productive (both would be in their last year). 

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, Stratos said:

If the choice is something like Canha + Moncada + Robertson versus Bregman, I'm well in the camp for Bregman.

How many recent seasons have we wasted many millions on near-replacement dudes or old guys that fall apart?  I don't mind Robertson but he's 40, and as for the others we should be allocating our millions towards real talent.

I understand that. But I think the original comparison also has Cease in it. And if that was too much take out one of the bench bats. I also agree the Cubs can’t make the Padres trade Cease for what the Cubs want to give them. So if it ends up Brasier and Bregman I would consider it a good off season where they may need to add to the rotation at some point or a young guy will have to step up. 

[Stratos]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

My question is, does acquiring Bregman hurt the Cubs ability to sign Tucker to an extension?  I’m still of the belief that Jed acquired him for 1 year and isn’t going to break the bank for him (although will make an effort to keep him). If Bregman opts in does that $30m weigh them down?

Some time over the next 2 seasons the Cubs very likely lose Nico, Happ, Seiya, and Taillon to FA or trade.

I imagine our prospects replace most of those guys, so they have payroll room longterm, and some of the above could possibly get moved next offseason to make space for a big Tucker AAV in 2026 if they extend him.

Caissie + Tucker (at around 40m AAV) is very close in AAV total to Happ + Seiya.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

My question is, does acquiring Bregman hurt the Cubs ability to sign Tucker to an extension?  I’m still of the belief that Jed acquired him for 1 year and isn’t going to break the bank for him (although will make an effort to keep him). If Bregman opts in does that $30m weigh them down?

Probably, but maybe not directly. Assume nothing gets done during the year (and I would guess a Bregman deal makes that slightly more unlikely) you'll be going into next year with a 2026 salary crunch but also Happ, Taillon, Suzuki, and Nico on theoretically reasonable one year deals. Logically you're not going to be able to move their salary without a drop in talent. So you can clear up the money pretty easily, but you'd be looking at moving a key player, and the implication to this whole assumption is that Bregman's semi-bet on himself didn't work for him and we're left with him a level that wouldn't be rewarded with more money than what we would be on the hook for. 

My question is how creative can you get in terms of AAV vs actual dollars spent....can we offer 40/20/20/20 with opt outs after each year? And if we could, do you think Ricketts would go for it? 

I think, first principles, trying to back into a contract where you are doing whatever you can to hope he leaves after 1 year probably means it's not a great fit. He would improve the team, but it's very much a square peg/round hole situation to me. 

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

My question is, does acquiring Bregman hurt the Cubs ability to sign Tucker to an extension?  I’m still of the belief that Jed acquired him for 1 year and isn’t going to break the bank for him (although will make an effort to keep him). If Bregman opts in does that $30m weigh them down?

Unless Ricketts is cool with a one year spike in payroll, which we should all treat as a "believe when I see it" deal, it would make keeping both guys tough.  Not impossible, but you'd have to move some payroll, which is never as easy as you want it to be.

[Stratos]

36 minutes ago, JD94 said:

This was my exact thought as well. Cheaper than Robertson which gives a little more wiggle room to sign Bregman. 

ZiPS projects Brasier with a better ERA than Robertson and about the same xFIP.   This looks like be a win for Jed, he probably saved around 9m over Robertson/Yates with similar projections for all 3.  I assume we give up nobody significant.

Only concern is the velo and k/9 drop for Brasier.  Hopefully some of that is injury-related and doesn't drop much more.

Edited February 5, 2025 by Stratos

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Unless Ricketts is cool with a one year spike in payroll, which we should all treat as a "believe when I see it" deal, it would make keeping both guys tough.  Not impossible, but you'd have to move some payroll, which is never as easy as you want it to be.

Eh. Bellinger was coming off a 2.2 fWAR year with theoretically two years left and we were able to move what...80% of it pretty easily? You'll have Happ (projected 3.4 fWAR, 1/19), Suzuki (projected 3.1 fWAR, 1/19), Taillon (projected 1.4 fWAR, 1/18), and Hoerner (projected 4.2 fWAR, 1/12). Any one of those first three plus Hoerner covers the gap between Tucker's 2025 $16m and Tucker's 2026 $45m. But obviously you're making the team worse. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Unless Ricketts is cool with a one year spike in payroll, which we should all treat as a "believe when I see it" deal, it would make keeping both guys tough.  Not impossible, but you'd have to move some payroll, which is never as easy as you want it to be.

Assuming the Cubs remain under the luxury tax this season, and with huge money coming off the books after 2026, there would be no good baseball reason to NOT allow a spike in payroll next season.  That is the exact scenario where a team should be willing to blow past the tax with minimal repercussions.  If the Ricketts family can afford it, that is.

[Stratos]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I understand that. But I think the original comparison also has Cease in it. And if that was too much take out one of the bench bats. I also agree the Cubs can’t make the Padres trade Cease for what the Cubs want to give them. So if it ends up Brasier and Bregman I would consider it a good off season where they may need to add to the rotation at some point or a young guy will have to step up. 

I wonder what Cease would get as a FA on a 1-year deal.  40m?  That would be his worth in a trade.

Odd that Cease is projected for lower WAR than Bregman.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Eh. Bellinger was coming off a 2.2 fWAR year with theoretically two years left and we were able to move what...80% of it pretty easily? You'll have Happ (projected 3.4 fWAR, 1/19), Suzuki (projected 3.1 fWAR, 1/19), Taillon (projected 1.4 fWAR, 1/18), and Hoerner (projected 4.2 fWAR, 1/12). Any one of those first three plus Hoerner covers the gap between Tucker's 2025 $16m and Tucker's 2026 $45m. But obviously you're making the team worse. 

Yeah, there's a bit of a push and pull there. You'd obviously hope that between now and then that the Cubs would be pretty comfortable with their prospect depth to take one of those positions. And the Cubs are set up that they'd have a top-100 guy behind any one of those - either Kevin Alcantara, Owen Caissie, Cade Horton, Ben Brown (though probably more of a RP), Jordan Wicks...and then you've got guys like Brandon Birdsell too. If you build a good enough team around them (assuming you'd get something pretty decent back for most of these guys), you can probably afford some rookie looks.

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Eh. Bellinger was coming off a 2.2 fWAR year with theoretically two years left and we were able to move what...80% of it pretty easily? You'll have Happ (projected 3.4 fWAR, 1/19), Suzuki (projected 3.1 fWAR, 1/19), Taillon (projected 1.4 fWAR, 1/18), and Hoerner (projected 4.2 fWAR, 1/12). Any one of those first three plus Hoerner covers the gap between Tucker's 2025 $16m and Tucker's 2026 $45m. But obviously you're making the team worse. 

Happ and Suzuki have full NTCs, and Taillon has a partial one.  Not impossible to work around (Suzuki sounded potentially amenable at the Winter Meetings) but potentially quite messy and complicated.

[Irrelevant Dude]

2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I wonder what Cease would get as a FA on a 1-year deal.  40m?  That would be his worth in a trade.

Minus his actual $13.75M salary.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Assuming the Cubs remain under the luxury tax this season, and with huge money coming off the books after 2026, there would be no good baseball reason to NOT allow a spike in payroll next season.  That is the exact scenario where a team should be willing to blow past the tax with minimal repercussions.  If the Ricketts family can afford it, that is.

I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth at this point because the situation is pretty fluid, so apologies for that, but the math is starting to change pretty significantly in these scenarios. The 'huge money' coming off the books is $19m+$19m+$18m+$12m and we can throw in Boyd at $15m. That's $83m. A Bregman deal is somewhere between $25m and $30m annually, and Tucker is probably looking at $45m. That's at least $70m, or a $13m net, just swapping those 5 players (Happ, Suzuki, Taillon, Hoerner, Boyd) for Bregman and Tucker. And you figure the Steele raises alone offset the increase in the cap number. While you'd hope those guys could largely be replaced internally, having to go out and get one or two replacements would put you back where you are now pretty quickly. 

[Bertz]

Speaking of payroll and Bregman.  After Brasier Roster Resource has the Cubs right at $30M under the tax for this year.  So one of these three things is seemingly true:

- The Cubs are out on Bregman

- The Cubs are willing to go above the LT

- The Cubs have another deal (presumably Hoerner) lined up after adding Bregman to send some money out

I guess technically a 4th possibility is that Bregman costs less than $30M, but I find that very hard to believe on a short term deal.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bertz said:

Speaking of payroll and Bregman.  After Brasier Roster Resource has the Cubs right at $30M under the tax for this year.  So one of these three things is seemingly true:

- The Cubs are out on Bregman

- The Cubs are willing to go above the LT

- The Cubs have another deal (presumably Hoerner) lined up after adding Bregman to send some money out

I guess technically a 4th possibility is that Bregman costs less than $30M, but I find that very hard to believe on a short term deal.

I wonder if this is how the "creative deal" plays into it. Bregman could be making more than $30m, but through vesting options, how they structure the money, etc that they could get the AAV under $30m still.

[Stratos]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Eh. Bellinger was coming off a 2.2 fWAR year with theoretically two years left and we were able to move what...80% of it pretty easily? You'll have Happ (projected 3.4 fWAR, 1/19), Suzuki (projected 3.1 fWAR, 1/19), Taillon (projected 1.4 fWAR, 1/18), and Hoerner (projected 4.2 fWAR, 1/12). Any one of those first three plus Hoerner covers the gap between Tucker's 2025 $16m and Tucker's 2026 $45m. But obviously you're making the team worse. 

Given we'll likely lose Happ/Suzuki/Nico/Taillon soon, if the Cubs acquired Bregman then this definitely becomes a win-now year, and if i'm Ricketts I go over the LT and keep buying.  Grab a veteran bench guy, maybe a SP in trade for low-minors talent, maybe another loogy.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

I wonder if this is how the "creative deal" plays into it. Bregman could be making more than $30m, but through vesting options, how they structure the money, etc that they could get the AAV under $30m still.

Perhaps, but they have to do that AND leave wiggle room for a mid-season move or two.  The math isn't impossible, but I think it becomes extremely difficult.

[Stratos]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I wonder if this is how the "creative deal" plays into it. Bregman could be making more than $30m, but through vesting options, how they structure the money, etc that they could get the AAV under $30m still.

Do mutual options/buyouts etc count towards the LT AAV?

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Given we'll likely lose Happ/Suzuki/Nico/Taillon soon, if the Cubs acquired Bregman then this definitely becomes a win-now year, and if i'm Ricketts I go over the LT and keep buying.

What's done is done, but that would make Jed's luxury tax mishap in 2024 look really bad.