Levine: Alex Bregman Open to Short-Term Deals, Cubs Have Talked to Scott Boras About It

[Matthew Trueblood]

We've discussed this as a remote but fascinating possibility all winter. Now that it's mid-January, those vague possibilities are taking on more definite forms. Alex Bregman and the Chicago Cubs could end up turning to one another in a moment of need as the endgame of the offseason sets in, according to 670 The Score's Bruce Levine. 

The specific structure that Levine mentions is a three-year deal with opt-outs after each season, akin to the deals signed by Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger last winter, and by Carlos Correa prior to the 2022 season. The Cubs aren't interested in a long-term Bregman commitment, Levine reported, but would be open to some version of this deal. They're just one of a handful of places where Bregman might land if he fully embraces the idea of such a contract, and there's still no guarantee that he will end up doing so, but you can start to see how this would work.

Bregman could play second base very early in the season, with Nico Hoerner (perhaps) still recovering from his offseason forearm surgery. He and Matt Shaw would cover for Hoerner as needed, and the Cubs would also be relieved of their dependence on the risky proposition of handing the rookie Shaw a full-time gig right away. Bregman's skill set is well-rounded, and he'd fit gorgeously between Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch in the lineup. All that is easy to grasp.

There are some complications, though. Doing this might require the team to move money from elsewhere on the roster, in order to make room for the expensive, high-ceiling pitching help they still need. Bregman is unlikely to sign for an AAV even as low as Bellinger's $26.7 million, so there would be wrinkles to smooth out even if this came to fruition. Nonetheless, it's an enticing option.

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[UMFan83]

Guess this is still a real possibility according to Heyman

Edited January 24, 2025 by UMFan83

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

Guess this is still a real possibility according to Heyman

Edit: Broke my Twitter pledge in 3 days dammit.  I'ma fix this

Start following this monstrosity of a BlueSky bot

 

 

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Start following this monstrosity of a BlueSky bot

 

 

Bless you for that.  But also damn you for quoting me before I could snipe edit with a screenshot 😅

[We Got The Whole 9]

If this happens I imagine they would trade Nico to SEA, no? This would really block Shaw, unless they are just trying to pull a Bellinger again and rent him for a year or something. 

[UMFan83]

Just now, We Got The Whole 9 said:

If this happens I imagine they would trade Nico to SEA, no? This would really block Shaw, unless they are just trying to pull a Bellinger again and rent him for a year or something. 

Definitely looking to rent for a year and Bregman probably knows that so I'm guessing he's using the Cubs interest as leverage for an Astros reunion.   Unless of course like you said they trade Nico.  Though Nico has been worth like 0.5 wins less total than Bregman over the last 3 years so not a huge improvement in some ways.

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

If this happens I imagine they would trade Nico to SEA, no? This would really block Shaw, unless they are just trying to pull a Bellinger again and rent him for a year or something. 

I think Nico would definitely go.  I don't know that it would be Seattle.  Nico for Castillo would no longer work financially, and the Mariners appear to have really stuck to their guns on the "we're not trading our young pitching" pledge.

Cleveland maybe?  I know they traded away a very similar guy in Gimenez, but Nico is signed to a much shorter term so he wouldn't be blocking Bazzana long term.

[squally1313]

I'm guessing/hoping the Cubs interest here doesn't go past a one year, one year with an option type situation. Doesn't make any sense that they'd commit long term money given where the rest of the team stands. Would probably push Shaw back down to Iowa, which is fine, only 35 games there in 2024, and let that play out until June or whatever and see where you find yourself. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

From MLBTR

I can’t imagine the Cubs are one of those 3 teams 

Wouldn't think so. But if all those deals were Santander-esque, maybe he's warming to 1/$25

[UMFan83]

34 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Idk gang this might block Shaw and is Bregman even good? 

Leaning heavily on WAR here but the Cubs would have 3 of the top 18 fWAR position players in baseball over the last 3 seasons if they signed Bregman.  4 of the top 25 if they managed to keep Nico.

[squally1313]

2024 Bregman is both a little concerning about the drop off and also a good reminder of just how good he's been the rest of his career.

The walk rate plummeted, he had been comfortably double digits every year dating back to 2018 and suddenly in 2024 it was 6.9%. Came without a drop in K rate, which was actually the highest it's been since 2020, but still very good (13.6%). All leading to a .331 wOBA, both the worst of his career and also maybe a little lucky (xwOBA of .319). Career best defensive contributions still got him over 4, but realistically a normal defensive year without a bounceback offensively you're looking at....Isaac Paredes but normal batted ball profile. Plenty valuable, but would be real weary of turning this guy into a long term fixture unless of course he was Tucker's best friend and would help there. 

[Bertz]

54 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

2024 Bregman is both a little concerning about the drop off and also a good reminder of just how good he's been the rest of his career.

The walk rate plummeted, he had been comfortably double digits every year dating back to 2018 and suddenly in 2024 it was 6.9%. Came without a drop in K rate, which was actually the highest it's been since 2020, but still very good (13.6%). All leading to a .331 wOBA, both the worst of his career and also maybe a little lucky (xwOBA of .319). Career best defensive contributions still got him over 4, but realistically a normal defensive year without a bounceback offensively you're looking at....Isaac Paredes but normal batted ball profile. Plenty valuable, but would be real weary of turning this guy into a long term fixture unless of course he was Tucker's best friend and would help there. 

Yeah if we're going to make a move like this Bregman is not the guy I'd use this bullet on.  Both for Bregman-specific reasons and Matt Shaw reasons.  One year pillow deal so he can shed his QO and re-enter next year's market?  Hell yeah.  5 year deal?  Eeeekkk.

[Jason Ross]

 

[UMFan83]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

 

I wonder who is leaking that particular information out there.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

I wonder who is leaking that particular information out there.

Most of the Cubs/Bregman stuff (as well as the Cubs/Alonso stuff) feels like it originates with Jon Heyman. Jon Heyman has been rumored to get a good chunk of information from Scott Boras...who represents both. 

My guess is that while the Cubs would be willing to get creative (as Sharma suggests) to get Bregman in, that a good deal of this is being fueled by Boras trying to get his client a home.

[JunkyardWalrus]

Why would you sign the short contract when you give up so much (draft picks etc) for just one year? 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Why would you sign the short contract when you give up so much (draft picks etc) for just one year? 

Because we have the money and we're at the part of win curve where incremental wins are most valuable and I'll take an almost guaranteed good player in 2025 over a maybe hopefully good player in 2029-2033

[squally1313]

Then again if you normalize for PAs, the ZIPs projections has Bregman being half a win better than Shaw for the year, so maybe it makes more sense to use that money and give Flaherty 150 innings instead of Assad/Rea (or Robertson/Pressly 100 innings instead of Morgan/Thielbar. Honestly at this point for me they're all pretty incremental, outside of some huge trade I would just like to see the money spent and the roster maximized one way or another.

Edited January 24, 2025 by squally1313

[MarkBellhorn]

What's the penatly for signing two Qualifying offer free agents? 

 

Example - Bergman and Pivetta 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, MarkBellhorn said:

What's the penatly for signing two Qualifying offer free agents? 

 

Example - Bergman and Pivetta 

For teams under the LT the previous season it is their 2nd round selection. For teams above it, it's a 2nd, a 5th and IFA money in the next signing period.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, MarkBellhorn said:

What's the penatly for signing two Qualifying offer free agents? 

Example - Bergman and Pivetta 

It depends on several things. How much a player signs for (I believe the threshold is over/under $50m) and whether the team is a revenue sharer or receiver.

[Development DL]

How much has been spent on this years IFA class .  How much is left .   What is the penalty for signing Qualifying FA , as it relates to IFA .  Hmmm

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Development DL said:

How much has been spent on this years IFA class .  How much is left .   What is the penalty for signing Qualifying FA , as it relates to IFA .  Hmmm

It would be the 2026 period that would take the IFA hit, not from this current class.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Then again if you normalize for PAs, the ZIPs projections has Bregman being half a win better than Shaw for the year, so maybe it makes more sense to use that money and give Flaherty 150 innings instead of Assad/Rea (or Robertson/Pressly 100 innings instead of Morgan/Thielbar. Honestly at this point for me they're all pretty incremental, outside of some huge trade I would just like to see the money spent and the roster maximized one way or another.

At this point if you add a closer and a backup 1B, this team is plausibly complete.  Closer will likely take low 8 figures, and the 1B can vary (at the low end there are always Garret Cooper types available).

So I suspect that we see a closer added very soon here, and then Jed can just be opportunistic for whatever scenario presents itself as the best way to spend the remaining ~$20M.  Flaherty?  Awesome.  Two closers?  Great!  Max Scherzer?  It's worth a shot!

I'd guess this ties into Bregman.  Bregman is the best player still available by a healthy margin.  He also, at a likely ~$30M salary, does not fit as cleanly into the team's budget as other options.  So I would guess Heyman is not making things up, but in practice this is Jed and Boras trying to nail down with certainty that Bregman to the Cubs won't work so that both sides can move on.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Inconceivable unless they deal Nico