Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

How do you not pivot right to Yates after losing Scott. Is our interest level not as high becuase he's RH?

They might prefer more velo.  Yates has an all-universe level splitter but a below average fastball.  And at 38 it's unlikely that improves.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

They might prefer more velo.  Yates has an all-universe level splitter but a below average fastball.  And at 38 it's unlikely that improves.

Honestly, does it matter anyway? If the Dodgers want a guy they just outbid everyone and get the guy. We have no idea if the Cubs were interested or not. 

[JBears79]

29 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Honestly, does it matter anyway? If the Dodgers want a guy they just outbid everyone and get the guy. We have no idea if the Cubs were interested or not. 

They probably were. Jed probably juat refused to budge from his number making it incrediblt easy for the Dodgers to swoop in and sign him

[Ding Dong Johnson]

We have plenty of reason to think Jed is not great as his job. We don't need to pretend that the Dodgers are performing witchcraft.

[Bruno7481]

I mean, good for the Dodgers for just saying “F it” and flexing their might.  Must be nice.

The folks at BN sure are teetering on freak out mode.  Can’t quite get a handle on them at times.  The same outfit will produce an overly positive write up when the Cubs sign Dylan Floro or someone of that magnitude and attempt to explain why it was a better use of resources.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Bruno7481 said:

I mean, good for the Dodgers for just saying “F it” and flexing their might.  Must be nice.

The folks at BN sure are teetering on freak out mode.  Can’t quite get a handle on them at times.  The same outfit will produce an overly positive write up when the Cubs sign Dylan Floro or someone of that magnitude and attempt to explain why it was a better use of resources.

I like Brett but he's always been like this.  He'll be calm and grounded but get WAY too attached to one random dude and snap once they sign somewhere else.  Last winter it was Robert Stephenson.

And then the non Bretts at BN are just generally dim.

[Tim]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I like Brett but he's always been like this.  He'll be calm and grounded but get WAY too attached to one random dude and snap once they sign somewhere else.  Last winter it was Robert Stephenson.

And then the non Bretts at BN are just generally dim.

If you like hockey, Tab is a good read. 

But other than that...

[Post Count Padder]

I saw the Yates news ands couldn't help but laugh. Like, what else can you do at this point. 

And at this point, I'm all in on one year for Robertson and/or Jansen, unless the Dodgers sign them too. Gotta make a move now, Jed. Waiting game is over.

[ToolDRT]

I really thinking trading Cam Smith for one year of Tucker, and then not going all in in free agency to supplement around him is one of the most boneheaded moves I’ve seen made by a team I follow. 

[Crusader]

1 hour ago, ToolDRT said:

I really thinking trading Cam Smith for one year of Tucker, and then not going all in in free agency to supplement around him is one of the most boneheaded moves I’ve seen made by a team I follow. 

Well, there's probably a solid chance they trade him at the deadline for prospects instead.

Edited January 21, 2025 by Crusader

[Bertz]

57 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

I really thinking trading Cam Smith for one year of Tucker, and then not going all in in free agency to supplement around him is one of the most boneheaded moves I’ve seen made by a team I follow. 

I would say broadly the thing the team is doing (or maybe more accurate to say not doing) that feels questionable is at SP. 

On the position player side the team is running a good or very good option out everywhere but catcher, and catcher was kind of impossible to meaningfully upgrade this winter more than they did.  Replacing Shaw with Bregman or Busch with Alonso would be simply be fans wanting a shiny new toy and likely not make the team significantly better.  Bench help is still needed, but it sounds pretty clear that's still on the way.

On the bullpen, I'd have liked Scott or Yates more than Finnegan (sounds like that's where we'll end up), but except at the very extremes closers just don't move the needle that much.  They're also famously hard to predict.  Josh Hader signed that big contract last winter and ranked in the 30-50 range in most metrics.

SP I think more should have clearly been invested.  Whichever of Assad/Rea ends up being the 5th starter, it feels like that is pretty easily the worst full-time spot on the roster. 

There are two questions which could move me towards being okay with punting on a SP trade however:

1. Does the team project themselves significantly ahead of the Brewers currently?

2. Is the team committed to paying inflated prices for a SP at the trade deadline?

We've seen a lot in recent years that March/April are a bloodbath for SP injuries as guys get ramped up. IF you think you've got some cushion between you and the Brewers (5+ games?), there's some logic to waiting until July and buying SPs when you know they're healthy.

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I would say broadly the thing the team is doing (or maybe more accurate to say not doing) that feels questionable is at SP. 

On the position player side the team is running a good or very good option out everywhere but catcher, and catcher was kind of impossible to meaningfully upgrade this winter more than they did.  Replacing Shaw with Bregman or Busch with Alonso would be simply be fans wanting a shiny new toy and likely not make the team significantly better.  Bench help is still needed, but it sounds pretty clear that's still on the way.

On the bullpen, I'd have liked Scott or Yates more than Finnegan (sounds like that's where we'll end up), but except at the very extremes closers just don't move the needle that much.  They're also famously hard to predict.  Josh Hader signed that big contract last winter and ranked in the 30-50 range in most metrics.

SP I think more should have clearly been invested.  Whichever of Assad/Rea ends up being the 5th starter, it feels like that is pretty easily the worst full-time spot on the roster. 

There are two questions which could move me towards being okay with punting on a SP trade however:

1. Does the team project themselves significantly ahead of the Brewers currently?

2. Is the team committed to paying inflated prices for a SP at the trade deadline?

We've seen a lot in recent years that March/April are a bloodbath for SP injuries as guys get ramped up. IF you think you've got some cushion between you and the Brewers (5+ games?), there's some logic to waiting until July and buying SPs when you know they're healthy.

I agree with all of this, and will add one more thing. Maybe they really believe Brown or Horton can be big contributors to the rotation the last half of the year. That said, since they didn’t get the big time closer I wish they did invest more on the rotation. 

[squally1313]

Cam Smith has 5 hits above single A ball, trading him for a dude with the same wRC as Juan Soto last year probably isn’t ’one of the most boneheaded moves ever’ or whatever the phrasing was, regardless of what a single offseason prospect ranking system says

im guessing the cubs internal projections systems are more advanced than zips, but it’s worth considering that they value the same inputs given how much zips likes the cubs this year. Unless the pirates or cardinals hack into the zips computer, the cubs have a 10 game advantage going into the year based on the projections (as an aside, funny how there’s significantly less glazing of the brewers front office and their grand total of zero dollars spent this offseason lately). I know, That’s Why They Play The Games, but it’s possible they’re very confident in the gap they’ve created and are holding the money back for a super discounted (money and years) Flaherty or Bregman, or, as mentioned above, a premium talent mid season. 

[squally1313]

Huh, when I type out a response with 80% of my focus on my kids playing in the CFA play place, it comes out significantly more Tom-ish. Who knew. 

[Petrey10]

28 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Cam Smith has 5 hits above single A ball, trading him for a dude with the same wRC as Juan Soto last year probably isn’t ’one of the most boneheaded moves ever’ or whatever the phrasing was, regardless of what a single offseason prospect ranking system says

im guessing the cubs internal projections systems are more advanced than zips, but it’s worth considering that they value the same inputs given how much zips likes the cubs this year. Unless the pirates or cardinals hack into the zips computer, the cubs have a 10 game advantage going into the year based on the projections (as an aside, funny how there’s significantly less glazing of the brewers front office and their grand total of zero dollars spent this offseason lately). I know, That’s Why They Play The Games, but it’s possible they’re very confident in the gap they’ve created and are holding the money back for a super discounted (money and years) Flaherty or Bregman, or, as mentioned above, a premium talent mid season. 

But if you only get him for 1 year and you just traded the 3rd best 3B in the minors and you also don’t win anything this year (which we won’t) 

 

Then

 

its gonna look awfully lopsided and not towards the cubs

 

 

[Bertz]

28 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Huh, when I type out a response with 80% of my focus on my kids playing in the CFA play place, it comes out significantly more Tom-ish. Who knew. 

 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

But if you only get him for 1 year and you just traded the 3rd best 3B in the minors and you also don’t win anything this year (which we won’t) 

 

Then

 

its gonna look awfully lopsided and not towards the cubs

 

 

Good thing we have the second best third base prospect! 

and why won’t we win anything this year? Because the dodgers? Should we just punt the next two years then? Hate to break it to you, but there was no path to spending $75m to get better than they are. 

[squally1313]

‘Third best third basemen’ prospect rankings since 2020:

• Nolan Jones
• nolan Jones
• jordan walker
• Curtis mead
• brayden Taylor 

 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

‘Third best third basemen’ prospect rankings since 2020:

• Nolan Jones
• nolan Jones
• jordan walker
• Curtis mead
• brayden Taylor 

 

I'm not sure if you caught my comparison between Shaw and Smith, and how much I really think the recent BP rankings are bad, Shaw and Smith have a lot in common; both NCAA picks, drafted 13/14th respectively and as of right now, play the same position with some questions as to whether or not they will be 3b long term. Shaw outhit Smith on wRC+ at each level, and posted a 144+ wRC+ in his first full-go at Double-A and Triple-A (which I think is like a 90-95% outcome for Smith next year. It's up there). 

Yet, Shaw, who was #21 on their last last year, sits four spots lower than Smith.

Regardless, I think people are getting way over their head as of now on Cam Smith. He's a good prospect! But the way some are acting, they're acting as if he's an uber prospect...when he's really on a path similar to that of Matt Shaw. And Shaw is good...really good! But Smith hasn't even accomplished that much yet.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Bruno7481 said:

I mean, good for the Dodgers for just saying “F it” and flexing their might.  Must be nice.

The folks at BN sure are teetering on freak out mode.  Can’t quite get a handle on them at times.  The same outfit will produce an overly positive write up when the Cubs sign Dylan Floro or someone of that magnitude and attempt to explain why it was a better use of resources.

I ignore all commentary from BN since its total cringe, I just use them as a good summary for Cubs news.

[CubinNY]

The Dodgers aren’t the enemy, the Ricketts family is the enemy. 

[ToolDRT]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Cam Smith has 5 hits above single A ball, trading him for a dude with the same wRC as Juan Soto last year probably isn’t ’one of the most boneheaded moves ever’ or whatever the phrasing was, regardless of what a single offseason prospect ranking system says

im guessing the cubs internal projections systems are more advanced than zips, but it’s worth considering that they value the same inputs given how much zips likes the cubs this year. Unless the pirates or cardinals hack into the zips computer, the cubs have a 10 game advantage going into the year based on the projections (as an aside, funny how there’s significantly less glazing of the brewers front office and their grand total of zero dollars spent this offseason lately). I know, That’s Why They Play The Games, but it’s possible they’re very confident in the gap they’ve created and are holding the money back for a super discounted (money and years) Flaherty or Bregman, or, as mentioned above, a premium talent mid season. 

It certainly is boneheaded when you don’t upgrade other obvious positions of need. We aren’t one move away from the World Series. It’s idiotic to make a move that says otherwise. But hopefully you’ll enjoy us possibly winning a weak division and getting stuck with 5 more years of Jed Hoyer. 

[ToolDRT]

3 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

But if you only get him for 1 year and you just traded the 3rd best 3B in the minors and you also don’t win anything this year (which we won’t) 

 

Then

 

its gonna look awfully lopsided and not towards the cubs

 

 

Not to mention Paredes. Who, not but 6 months ago was being hailed as a great and needed addition by most fans. I’m all aboard the Shaw train mind you, but there’s simply no point paying the price we paid for Tucker when he’s clearly not going to be here in 12 months. Use Cam Smith in a trade for someone with more control, but not as a last ditch attempt to save Jed’s ass. Dude is a moron when it comes to anything other than being Theo’s assistant. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jed is apparently always grossly incompetent in the exact way that lets some folks stay convinced he has no idea what he's doing, it's such an uninteresting and obviously contradictory way of looking at things.  Jed is famously overly conservative, hoarding resources and being scared of big contracts, and obviously will never ever pay to keep Tucker despite a significant head start in the race to do so.  Also Jed is reckless, making a historically bad overpay to mortgage the future just to save his job.  I really don't understand the impulse to try to make up these caricatures, the nuance is not only more accurate but it's more interesting to try to understand and guess how it'll apply going forward.

[ToolDRT]

19 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Jed is apparently always grossly incompetent in the exact way that lets some folks stay convinced he has no idea what he's doing, it's such an uninteresting and obviously contradictory way of looking at things.  Jed is famously overly conservative, hoarding resources and being scared of big contracts, and obviously will never ever pay to keep Tucker despite a significant head start in the race to do so.  Also Jed is reckless, making a historically bad overpay to mortgage the future just to save his job.  I really don't understand the impulse to try to make up these caricatures, the nuance is not only more accurate but it's more interesting to try to understand and guess how it'll apply going forward.

At risk of you threatening to ban me again (I know that’s your go to power move) I’ll say you could always address me directly. I didn’t know you couldn’t be conservative in your free agent acquisitions and also make a simultaneously boneheaded trade as well. Only one of those things is possible? I’ve always prefaced by saying he’s a great move if he’s resigned.
 

But how for the life of me anyone could see the point in paying any price to acquire a SEASON of Kyle Tucker when we have no business believing we’re a singular move away from a World Series is beyond me. But feel free to enjoy the absolutely uselessly good-to-great season he’ll enjoy at Wrigley this year. While also not putting a dent in the goal of making us World Series contenders. Because yes, two things can be true at the same time. Shocker. 

Edited January 22, 2025 by ToolDRT