Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, Thusly Boned said:

Overall, but a little inconsistent in recent years. I might be wrong, but I believe I read that ~35 of his career homers wouldn't have been homers anywhere else. At the very least, his home park has propped up his power numbers.

But the most pressing issue for me is that his overall offensive numbers have been in decline. wOBA down each of the last three years, and last year was probably his worst full season. His 4.1 fWAR was propped up by uncharacteristically good defensive numbers.

Defensively, his range isn't great and his arm is poor. As he ages (he'll be 31 at the start of the season) he may have to come off of 3B.

All that said, I'd be happy to give him like 3/90, but I'd have zero interest in him at his rumored asking price. With our miserly ownership, he's just not a player I'd want to see a bunch of payroll tied up in for more and than a few years. I can see him being just a guy in pretty short order.

But I don't think it matters, Jed's not going there regardless.

Agreed, he isn’t coming here. I am also very surprised that his numbers are pretty similar on the road as they are at home. Without looking I would have agreed with you. But his slugging is actually better on the road for his career. 

[Bertz]

If Jed's willing to eat a qualifying offer, I wonder what Nick Pivetta could be had for.  He's someone who it seemed like at the time probably ought to have accepted it, and now it seems like he *really* messed up by not taking it.

If you offer him a good salary, could you get him for something especially team friendly like 1 year plus a club option?  

[thawv]

10 hours ago, Thusly Boned said:

Overall, but a little inconsistent in recent years. I might be wrong, but I believe I read that ~35 of his career homers wouldn't have been homers anywhere else. At the very least, his home park has propped up his power numbers.

But the most pressing issue for me is that his overall offensive numbers have been in decline. wOBA down each of the last three years, and last year was probably his worst full season. His 4.1 fWAR was propped up by uncharacteristically good defensive numbers.

Defensively, his range isn't great and his arm is poor. As he ages (he'll be 31 at the start of the season) he may have to come off of 3B.

All that said, I'd be happy to give him like 3/90, but I'd have zero interest in him at his rumored asking price. With our miserly ownership, he's just not a player I'd want to see a bunch of payroll tied up in for more and than a few years. I can see him being just a guy in pretty short order.

But I don't think it matters, Jed's not going there regardless.

He has a total of 210 HR's.  Home field did help his numbers, as his adjusted park factor say he would have hit 239 HR's if he only played in Houston.  Playing in Houston aided his HR's the second most behind Cin at 241 HR's.   KC at 117 HR's would be his worst park to hit in.  For the record, Wrigley sits at 193 HR's.  Playing in Houston has helped him a ton.  

[Rcal10]

I actually think there is a better chance at a Tucker extension that the Cubs signing either Bregman or Pivetta. For those who know how contracts are calculated for tax purposes how would something like this go:

Tucker gets a 12 year deal starting now. Year 1 at $18M, year 2,3,4 $46M and years 5-12 at $33M. He gets an opt out after 4 years. That would be a total of $412M over 12 years. Average of $34.25 annual. Without discussing my actual numbers because I know some will say too low or too high, does this do the following:

LT number for the Cubs for 12 yrs: $34.25     
Tucker 4 years at $156 ($39M Annual)           
Allows him to opt out at 31. He would have to beat 8/$256 at that time. If he is a star he can do that. 
If it does all of this, what is the downside for the Cubs organization? Even if he leaves the Cubs wont be paying someone until he is 40. If he stays, he is being paid like a star and what he will get on the open market. The only downside I see is to ownership having to pay him $46M annual for years 2 thru 4. Or is this not how it works? I know they can also work with deferred money too, but that really gets over my pay grade. I am just asking about straight 12 year deal with an opt out. Does this work as I suggested or am I wrong. 

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, thawv said:

He has a total of 210 HR's.  Home field did help his numbers, as his adjusted park factor say he would have hit 239 HR's if he only played in Houston.  Playing in Houston aided his HR's the second most behind Cin at 241 HR's.   KC at 117 HR's would be his worst park to hit in.  For the record, Wrigley sits at 193 HR's.  Playing in Houston has helped him a ton.  

Again, his career slugging is better on the road than at home. I am talking slugging now, not homers. He has a higher slug for his career on the road. Slightly higher average too. He is actually pretty even. Last year he played better at home. But in 23’ he was a lot better in the road. Overall even. You can cherry pick numbers all you want. His actual career numbers say otherwise. 
They aren’t getting him anyway. But he will be a good player for someone, just not the Cubs IMO. 

[Rcal10]

10 hours ago, Bertz said:

If Jed's willing to eat a qualifying offer, I wonder what Nick Pivetta could be had for.  He's someone who it seemed like at the time probably ought to have accepted it, and now it seems like he *really* messed up by not taking it.

If you offer him a good salary, could you get him for something especially team friendly like 1 year plus a club option?  

I wouldn’t br opposed to Pivetta, but I wouldn’t want a 1 year deal while giving up the draft picks. If the Cubs considered him I would rather see something like the Tailon deal or even the Stroman deal with the Yankees. If they are going to lose picks and IFA money I want someone for 3 or more years. 

[Bertz]

I wonder if this was the strategy behind signing Rea.  Not necessarily Bregman specifically (I expect he will at worst be able to settle for Matt Chapman money from the Tigers), but just this sort of move broadly.

Right now, the only absolute needs on the roster are backup at 1st and 3rd.  There are other areas for obvious improvement, but that infield depth is all that they cannot live without.  There's also, as discussed ad nauseum, about $30M we suspect Jed can play with (and this rumor would suggest that's not being funneled into a superpac somewhere).

So is the plan to fill the absolute holes on the roster, and then in early February Jed flies to Orange County with $30M on his debit card and posts up outside of Boras Corp or CAA like this?

There are a few guys on the market that the team simply cannot make work as a team fit, like Jurickson Profar.  But through positional flexibility you can broadly make most remaining free agent position players work, and there's obvious room for pitching still.

[Tryptamine]

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Were you in a coma last February?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I wonder if this was the strategy behind signing Rea.  Not necessarily Bregman specifically (I expect he will at worst be able to settle for Matt Chapman money from the Tigers), but just this sort of move broadly.

Right now, the only absolute needs on the roster are backup at 1st and 3rd.  There are other areas for obvious improvement, but that infield depth is all that they cannot live without.  There's also, as discussed ad nauseum, about $30M we suspect Jed can play with (and this rumor would suggest that's not being funneled into a superpac somewhere).

So is the plan to fill the absolute holes on the roster, and then in early February Jed flies to Orange County with $30M on his debit card and posts up outside of Boras Corp or CAA like this?

There are a few guys on the market that the team simply cannot make work as a team fit, like Jurickson Profar.  But through positional flexibility you can broadly make most remaining free agent position players work, and there's obvious room for pitching still.

I think there's definitely something to the idea that Rea is a move meant on shoring up the end of the roster so that no other specific additions *have* to be made for depth reasons.  So they can just hunt value wherever it shows up, though I suspect/hope the Bregman stuff is more due diligence and the actual value being hunted is on the pitching side.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Were you in a coma last February?

Yes they brought back Bellinger, which was more or less necessary so that they weren't marching out a worse team in 2024 than they were in 2023. The results ended up being the same. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Yes they brought back Bellinger, which was more or less necessary so that they weren't marching out a worse team in 2024 than they were in 2023. The results ended up being the same. 

And so this is different from the situation I laid out because....?

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

And so this is different from the situation I laid out because....?

Because we hadn't specifically heard from both Marlin and the article posted on here about Tom's financial issues bringing a lot of doubt that the existing money is spent. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Because we hadn't specifically heard from both Marlin and the article posted on here about Tom's financial issues bringing a lot of doubt that the existing money is spent. 

This is literally from the Rogers article you're referencing

Quote

Though the Cubs' front office has the ability to be fluid with its budget, according to sources familiar with the situation, it's become obvious the team isn't going to increase its payroll by any significant margin. They are likely to reallocate the savings from the Bellinger-Tucker swap to other areas of the team, according to sources.

 

[squally1313]

Look, any sort of constructive discussion about how they may improve the team halfway through the offseason must also have a certain amount of posts making the same complaints ad nauseum. Oh you wanted to talk about who they may or may not sign? Did you not consider that Jed sucks at his job?

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Again, his career slugging is better on the road than at home. I am talking slugging now, not homers. He has a higher slug for his career on the road. Slightly higher average too. He is actually pretty even. Last year he played better at home. But in 23’ he was a lot better in the road. Overall even. You can cherry pick numbers all you want. His actual career numbers say otherwise. 
They aren’t getting him anyway. But he will be a good player for someone, just not the Cubs IMO. 

My post was about his HR numbers only.  Slugging is different for sure, bud!

They are not spending his kind of money.  Like Jed said almost a year ago,  rumors are usually just lies. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

My post was about his HR numbers only.  Slugging is different for sure, bud!

They are not spending his kind of money.  Like Jed said almost a year ago,  rumors are usually just lies. 

I know they aren’t signing him. But TBH, I was surprised at how balanced his numbers actually were. I just assumed he was much better in Houston. As I said, IMO, they have a better chance of extending Tucker then they do trading for Bregman. And the extension, now, is not very likely either. 

[jersey cubs fan]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

And so this is different from the situation I laid out because....?

Resigning your own guy is very different than signing another teams guy

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Resigning your own guy is very different than signing another teams guy

In the context of this conversation, how so?

[Jason Ross]

Interesting. Very small nugget there. But it's there. 

[Post Count Padder]

You're killing me, Jesse.

I've all but written off Scott as an option at this point. Insert "I thought I was out and they pull me back in" joke.

We are not getting Pivetta. Before Rea or after Rea. If we add another starter it will be via trade.

[chibears55]

No IFA signing today for the cubs, don't they(cubs) usually sign their guys on day 1 ?

Wonder if they're waiting to see where Sasaki goes and may have interest in any of the kids that team had handshake deals with

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, chibears55 said:

No IFA signing today for the cubs, don't they(cubs) usually sign their guys on day 1 ?

Wonder if they're waiting to see where Sasaki goes and may have interest in any of the kids that team had handshake deals with

It could also be teams that are in the Sasaki sweepstakes need more IFA money. Maybe the Cubs have discussed Cease with the Padres. Could be a part of the trade would be giving them some IFA money. Same with Toronto. Don’t they want to shed salary. If they are getting Sasaki, might Berrios be available? Again, maybe IFA added to whatever the Cubs might have to trade gets the deal done. Maybe with the Dodgers wantIFA money traded for one of their young pitchers who won’t be in the rotation once Sasaki signs with them. So many things it can be. But one thing I do believe is this is very unusual and because of that there is something going on. Might not have anything develop, but teams are waiting for a reason. 

[CubinNY]

I read in the Athletic that Flaherty is willing to accept a shorter term contract with opt-out. If I'm Jed I'd get him signed. It makes too much sense. 

Edited January 16, 2025 by CubinNY

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

It could also be teams that are in the Sasaki sweepstakes need more IFA money. Maybe the Cubs have discussed Cease with the Padres. Could be a part of the trade would be giving them some IFA money. Same with Toronto. Don’t they want to shed salary. If they are getting Sasaki, might Berrios be available? Again, maybe IFA added to whatever the Cubs might have to trade gets the deal done. Maybe with the Dodgers wantIFA money traded for one of their young pitchers who won’t be in the rotation once Sasaki signs with them. So many things it can be. But one thing I do believe is this is very unusual and because of that there is something going on. Might not have anything develop, but teams are waiting for a reason. 

Also with all the Bregman chatter and the QO attached to him, part of what theyll lose is IFA money if they were to sign him.

Hopefully Hoyer has something good brewing that they could announce before or during the convention