Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[We Got The Whole 9]

Random - and this is just an observation and not a complaint or lamentation - but do we have the least amount of Latin American representation on a team in the league? I count Amaya and Assad as the only 2 major contributors. As many as we have Japanese players. If Brujan makes the team we have 3.

 

We have to have the whitest team in the league. Our lack of ability to develop LA talent is pretty astonishing. On the 40 you also have Palencia, Vazquez, Canario, and Alcantara and only 1 of them was drafted/signed by the Cubs. 

 

 

Edited January 14, 2025 by We Got The Whole 9

[Dfan25]

If they have the money for it , i could see a trade for Cease . He will make like 13.75 next year .

If the Padres feel Cassie is ready to play LF , i wouldnt be surprised if it happens . One of Assad / Wicks would probably need to go as well .

 

If they cant trade for a top SP , then i prefer adding the best 2 relievers they can get on 1 year deals . 

With that said its entirely possible all they do from this point on is Kyke Finnegan and a 3B . 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

22 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Random - and this is just an observation and not a complaint or lamentation - but do we have the least amount of Latin American representation on a team in the league? I count Amaya and Assad as the only 2 major contributors. As many as we have Japanese players. If Brujan makes the team we have 3.

 

We have to have the whitest team in the league. Our lack of ability to develop LA talent is pretty astonishing. On the 40 you also have Palencia, Vazquez, Canario, and Alcantara and only 1 of them was drafted/signed by the Cubs. 

 

 

I've noticed this too, we talked about it a little here:

I suspect that this is 3 main factors, in the likely order of importance to the current roster: the FO's general preferences lead them away from IFA players even in trade/FA, IFA has become less successful league-wide, and the FO hasn't been particularly successful relative to the league in developing IFA.

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I've noticed this too, we talked about it a little here:

I suspect that this is 3 main factors, in the likely order of importance to the current roster: the FO's general preferences lead them away from IFA players even in trade/FA, IFA has become less successful league-wide, and the FO hasn't been particularly successful relative to the league in developing IFA.

One thing worth really driving home on that 3rd point is there's just such a long lead time before you can get a read on this stuff.  The Cubs were kings of LatAm from 2011-2015, things fell apart more or less overnight, and we didn't really start feeling that something was up until 2018ish?

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

 

With that said its entirely possible all they do from this point on is Kyke Finnegan and a 3B . 

 

This is my fear. But if this does happen that means Jed has orders to cut payroll. And, IMO that is on Ricketts. The only way this would be remotely ok is if they had to do this to sign Tucker to a 12 year deal. Still wouldn’t be great use of their money, but at least it would make more sense. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

This is my fear. But if this does happen that means Jed has orders to cut payroll. And, IMO that is on Ricketts. The only way this would be remotely ok is if they had to do this to sign Tucker to a 12 year deal. Still wouldn’t be great use of their money, but at least it would make more sense. 

What would next season and beyond money for Tucker or anyone extension havevto do with this year's payroll?

Just curious to know if there is something there

[chibears55]

Masterbone traded to Mariners in case anyone cares

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

What would next season and beyond money for Tucker or anyone extension havevto do with this year's payroll?

Just curious to know if there is something there

Teams and players have flexibility with how they handle extensions.  So let's say you're going to sign Tucker to a 10 year deal, the Cubs and Tucker could choose whether to make that 2025-2034, or 2026-2035.  The latter would leave more money to spend this year, while the former would reduce how much of Tucker's decline phase you're paying him for at the end of a deal.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Teams and players have flexibility with how they handle extensions.  So let's say you're going to sign Tucker to a 10 year deal, the Cubs and Tucker could choose whether to make that 2025-2034, or 2026-2035.  The latter would leave more money to spend this year, while the former would reduce how much of Tucker's decline phase you're paying him for at the end of a deal.

To further explain. Let’s say the Cubs are going to give Tucker a 1 year deal at $17M this year and then they do a contract later giving him 10/$400M. That would mean this year he only goes $17M against the LT. But if they did it all at once and announced an 11 year $417M contract this years salary would be almost $38M a year, and it would be the same every year after. So instead of counting as $17M towards the LT this year Tucker would count as $38M. Which would be why the Cubs can’t spend what we think they can. I just used 10 years and $40M a year to make it easy. Nit my guess. I also was not responding to Bertz, more to chibear because he asked why it matters. 

[JD94]

I’m guessing if this ever came to fruition, Nico likely gets traded for SP and Shaw likely plays 2B. 

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I’m guessing if this ever came to fruition, Nico likely gets traded for SP and Shaw likely plays 2B. 

Well that’s fun in an MLB the Show way. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I’m guessing if this ever came to fruition, Nico likely gets traded for SP and Shaw likely plays 2B. 

That would be shocking. I doubt it happens. Probably Boras just grandstanding, but it is interesting. 

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I’m guessing if this ever came to fruition, Nico likely gets traded for SP and Shaw likely plays 2B. 

It really does not sound like things are far enough apart between Boras and the Tigers/BoSox for something like this to be at all likely.  

[Post Count Padder]

Could just be a negotiating tactic by Boras. But I don't hate the idea if it's a real possibility. And definitely gives us some options around the infield.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, JD94 said:

I’m guessing if this ever came to fruition, Nico likely gets traded for SP and Shaw likely plays 2B. 

Hoyer probably asked if he's willing to sign for 1 year with them if he doesn't get what he wants elsewhere 🙄🙄

[JD94]

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Hoyer probably asked if he's willing to sign for 1 year with them if he doesn't get what he wants elsewhere 🙄🙄

I mean yeah. That’s basically what was reported. 3 year deal with opt outs after each year. Basically the Bellinger 2.0 contract. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

Cubs would lose a 2nd and a fifth rd pick plus international money if they sign Bregman. Yeah, I don't see Jed doing that.

[Thusly Boned]

8 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I mean yeah. That’s basically what was reported. 3 year deal with opt outs after each year. Basically the Bellinger 2.0 contract. 

I don't think it's unreasonable, being that his market isn't exactly hot. That said, if he were to accept a one deal deal to build his value, I don't think the Cubs would be the best choice; I would expect his numbers would get worse in Wrigley than they were last year, and they are already on the decline.

And even if the Cubs weren't being miserly, I would be leery of giving Bregman a long term deal. Maybe 3-4 years at most, which is what I'd suspect he'll have to settle for.

[Derwood]

Does a 4 WAR third baseman need to "build his value"?

[CubinNY]

14 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Does a 4 WAR third baseman need to "build his value"?

No. This is winter season silliness. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, JD94 said:

I mean yeah. That’s basically what was reported. 3 year deal with opt outs after each year. Basically the Bellinger 2.0 contract. 

Note that the mention of a 3 year deal sounded like total speculation.

Possible the Cubs try to snipe a deal like this on some player as they wait out the offseason and find good value somewhere.  Cubs are going to check in on everybody id imagine so I don't really see this as news.  And yeah could be Boras-bait.

A Bellinger-style deal seems less likely to me for Bregman because he's older and lacks the uncertainty Bellinger had.

[Petrey10]

Bc the Bellinger deal worked out so well?!? Not saying it killed us but wasn’t great

[Thusly Boned]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

Does a 4 WAR third baseman need to "build his value"?

Well, he's certainly not getting what he is looking for (200+ million, allegedly). What I was implying is that if he wants to get a big contract, it's probably not gonna be this offseason. 

He's a 30 year old player in decline who is leaving a park that has been a boon to his numbers. There's a reason he hasn't been signed yet.

Edited January 15, 2025 by Thusly Boned

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, Thusly Boned said:

Well, he's certainly not getting what he is looking for (200+ million, allegedly). What I was implying is that if he wants to get a big contract, it's probably not gonna be this offseason. 

He's a 30 year old player in decline who is leaving a park that has been a boon to his numbers. There's a reason he hasn't been signed yet.

Except his career splits show he is equal/better on the road than at home. The park isn’t why he is good. He is just good. 

[Thusly Boned]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Except his career splits show he is equal/better on the road than at home. The park isn’t why he is good. He is just good. 

Overall, but a little inconsistent in recent years. I might be wrong, but I believe I read that ~35 of his career homers wouldn't have been homers anywhere else. At the very least, his home park has propped up his power numbers.

But the most pressing issue for me is that his overall offensive numbers have been in decline. wOBA down each of the last three years, and last year was probably his worst full season. His 4.1 fWAR was propped up by uncharacteristically good defensive numbers.

Defensively, his range isn't great and his arm is poor. As he ages (he'll be 31 at the start of the season) he may have to come off of 3B.

All that said, I'd be happy to give him like 3/90, but I'd have zero interest in him at his rumored asking price. With our miserly ownership, he's just not a player I'd want to see a bunch of payroll tied up in for more and than a few years. I can see him being just a guy in pretty short order.

But I don't think it matters, Jed's not going there regardless.