Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[We Got The Whole 9]

I actually mentioned the same with him a few months ago. It'll be worth watching if they can find something in the lab.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Justin Turner had 318 PA's before his 29th birthday in the MLB. He had a sub 100 wRC+, and negative fWAR. Comparing Turner's pre-age 29 to Tucker is both unfair, nor relevant, as the Justin Turner we know today was not a thing yet. We could do that comparison, but by that level of measurement, Tucker runs such circles around Turner that we could conclude he'd be liable to put up 90 fWAR over his age 29-38 years.

Conversely, Tucker's fWAR of ~21 compares very favorable to both Goldschmidt ~20 and Freeman ~23 fWAR through ages 23-27. It should also be noted that Tucker's age 23 year, worth roughly 1.8 fWAR was the 2020 covid shortened season, which means he's unfairly penalized. Tucker posted a 143 wRC+ compared to Goldschmidt's 145 wRC+ and Freeman's 145 wRC+ as well. I already compared Santana's age 23-27 to Tucker in the previous post.

If you're going to worry about a bone bruise as a significant injury moving forward causing chronic issues...well then be my guest. That's ridiculous. That is not an issue that anyone should have any concern moving long term, and is easily dismissible. Both because it's not something that will be reoccurring (it was misdiagnosed causing the lengthy down time), nor did it effect him, as Tucker returned just fine as he had a 193 wRC+ after his return.

The point of my post was to show players who had similar skillsets and how they aged, not comparing them through their aged 27 season. But if you want that, there you go. 

All very good analysis and the comparisons to Freemand and Goldy are apt. I think part of the reason for the skepticism around here is that we've become really accustomed to seeing above average, not elite offensive performance. I'm pretty tired of watching the Cubs day in and day out and being like, oh wow, Happ has had a hot month, and then seeing him come in at like a 145 wRC, and then looking at the leaderboard and seeing these offensive freaks sat up there or surpass that easily in their YTD numbers. 

Since the 2018 season, so seven of them, 2019 Rizzo has had the best offensive season by wRC. Second best? 2024 Seiya Suzuki, somehow. Tucker's projections this year, which are 38 POINTS LOWER than what he did last year, are better than both of those seasons. Projections are notoriously conservative. He simply meets hits his projection, he eclipses everyone since 2018. He's a different level of hitter than we've had since KB/Rizzo. He's worth the money. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

All very good analysis and the comparisons to Freemand and Goldy are apt. I think part of the reason for the skepticism around here is that we've become really accustomed to seeing above average, not elite offensive performance. I'm pretty tired of watching the Cubs day in and day out and being like, oh wow, Happ has had a hot month, and then seeing him come in at like a 145 wRC, and then looking at the leaderboard and seeing these offensive freaks sat up there or surpass that easily in their YTD numbers. 

Since the 2018 season, so seven of them, 2019 Rizzo has had the best offensive season by wRC. Second best? 2024 Seiya Suzuki, somehow. Tucker's projections this year, which are 38 POINTS LOWER than what he did last year, are better than both of those seasons. Projections are notoriously conservative. He simply meets hits his projection, he eclipses everyone since 2018. He's a different level of hitter than we've had since KB/Rizzo. He's worth the money. 

I also think there's is some residual fears from Heyward, Bryant and Baez (though obviously the Cubs are not on the hook for the latter two). A fear that the next big contract will go the same way - Tucker will become injury riddled and no longer hit. 

[Dfan25]

Rogers was on ESPN 1000 and said Sasaki is now visiting cities , and hasnt heard he is visiting Chicago . Put the Cubs on the back of those conversations . 

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I also think there's is some residual fears from Heyward, Bryant and Baez (though obviously the Cubs are not on the hook for the latter two). A fear that the next big contract will go the same way - Tucker will become injury riddled and no longer hit. 

I understand people’s fear of that. But a large market team just has to be able to sign a player whose contract might take him to close to 40 years old if,in doing so, they can get several great years out of him. Those who are against this sort of thing should never suggest the Cubs should spend big on anyone nor complain when they don’t spend. Top end star players are going to want money until their late 30’s and beyond. If the Cubs aren’t willing to do it for Tucker, than who? 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Rogers was on ESPN 1000 and said Sasaki is now visiting cities , and hasnt heard he is visiting Chicago . Put the Cubs on the back of those conversations . 

He was a long shot anyway. If he isn’t coming here they have no more excuses to wait to either trade for or sign a few quality players. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

He was a long shot anyway. If he isn’t coming here they have no more excuses to wait to either trade for or sign a few quality players. 

Might still need to wait for the Padres to get closure

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Might still need to wait for the Padres to get closure

Right after I hit submit I thought the same thing. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

19 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Might still need to wait for the Padres to get closure

I’m missing it. What do you mean by this?

[Jason Ross]

45 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Rogers was on ESPN 1000 and said Sasaki is now visiting cities , and hasnt heard he is visiting Chicago . Put the Cubs on the back of those conversations . 

Eh, it sounded more or less like he has no idea. "I have not heard if he's going to visit Chicago. I dont believe he is. I do believe he's maybe visiting other cities". 

There wasn't a lot to go on there. The negative view is that Rogers hasn't heard anything to make him think he's coming to visit, so maybe he isnt. But the inverse is that the entire thing sounds like he's guessing. It could very well be that the Cubs have kept it under wraps and Jesse doesn't know. He didn't offer a single city he *was* visiting. And even then it was "believe".  

He didn't use the word source or anything. So you can take that for what its worth. I still think the Cubs are unlikely, but Brett's tweet feels more negative than I took Rogers - who just kind of sounded guess-worky along the lines of "no one told me he's coming, so I guess he isnt".

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

I’m missing it. What do you mean by this?

The Padres need to cut payroll, and seem to be pinning a lot of their offseason hopes on Sasaki.  So depending on what Sasaki chooses, that might make someone like Dylan Cease or Michael King available.  It seems like the remaining SP is the biggest item left on Jed's to-do list so one of those two guys coming available would be significant.

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

I’m missing it. What do you mean by this?

I assume Cease or King. 

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Eh, it sounded more or less like he has no idea. "I have not heard if he's going to visit Chicago. I dont believe he is. I do believe he's maybe visiting other cities". 

There wasn't a lot to go on there. The negative view is that Rogers hasn't heard anything to make him think he's coming to visit, so maybe he isnt. But the inverse is that the entire thing sounds like he's guessing. It could very well be that the Cubs have kept it under wraps and Jesse doesn't know. He didn't offer a single city he *was* visiting. And even then it was "believe".  

He didn't use the word source or anything. So you can take that for what its worth. I still think the Cubs are unlikely, but Brett's tweet feels more negative than I took Rogers - who just kind of sounded guess-worky along the lines of "no one told me he's coming, so I guess he isnt".

Also, wasn’t Imanaga here for weeks and no one knew it? Cubs are good about this stuff. That said, still a long shot. 

[chibears55]

Here your new SP,  gotta stop thinking Hoyer gonna add solid ball players to the roster, he goes for cheap hopeful and 1-2 yrs guys at a low cost.

 

[Rcal10]

The only way Rea makes any sense is if Assad is traded along with others in a bigger deal for a starting pitcher. Rea takes Assad’s spot. If it is just Rea for the rotation this is horseshit. 

[LBiittner]

Im waiting with baited bad breath and Jed gives us Colin focking Rea.

Colin focking Rea is a biblical loss for an mlb staff.

Why does jed keep pissing in the shallows? 

[LBiittner]

Hey Jose cuas is available once again. Bring that motherfocker back jed! 

[LBiittner]

Quickly please, somebody (bertz) put a positive spin on Colin focking Rea stats.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Multi-page thread of discussion of the Rea signing here

 

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Quickly please, somebody (bertz) put a positive spin on Colin focking Rea stats.

 

Best I have is he is here to replace Assad because Assad is going to be traded along with whatever else is needed for someone like Lopez or Cease. How is that???🤷

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Best I have is he is here to replace Assad because Assad is going to be traded along with whatever else is needed for someone like Lopez or Cease. How is that???🤷

If you are correct, for this, I love u

[Post Count Padder]

Quote

The Blue Jays announced the signing of Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33MM free agent contract. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported earlier this evening that Hoffman and the Jays had had productive conversations on a potential multi-year deal.

Dang I wanted him. Gets a little less than Holmes did. I wonder if they use him as a starter. Basically swapped with the Phillies for Romano.

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Dang I wanted him. Gets a little less than Holmes did. I wonder if they use him as a starter. Basically swapped with the Phillies for Romano.

 

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Instead of throwing personal barbs like "I know you're never going to concede a point" and being huffy. ,maybe it's best to ask "why did he pick Justin Turner?" 

Player A - 134 wRC+, 15.6 K%, 9.3 BB%, .193 ISO .317 BABIP  
Player B - 139 wRC+, 16 K%, 10.8 BB%, .242 ISO, .284 BABIP 

This is what happens when you assume I'm just cherry picking. I picked a player who had a similar career line, They also have somewhat similar swing decisions and the like, but at that point we're kind of getting to a point where you'll never find two players wo did exactly the same thing. But generally speaking, I picked similar players who did things in a similar style and who had to move off of their primary position in their later years to go play 1b/DH. One of those is Turner from 29-38 and the other is Tucker. It's to show what an aging curve of someone with a similar skillset looks like. 

Just last season, we had 38 year old Carlos Santana post a 3 fWAR season (who posted 20.8 fWAR, as a 1b/DH with a 111 wRC+ over those ages). Are we not assuming Tucker is capable of adding 13 fWAR over him? A player who doesn't play 1b/DH, who has been 20+ wRC+ points better and who offers base running value to boot? That's basically a little over one fWAR per-season to get there. Doesn't seem crazy, does it? Let's make it sound less crazy yet - through 27 years old, Santana had a 127 wRC+ and was worth 5.4 fWAR. Tucker has a 139 wRC+ and has been worth 15 more wins. 

This idea that I'm cherry picking Justin Turner is inane. In 2023, Paul Goldschmidt posted a 3.4 fWAR at 36 while JD Martinez and Brandon Belt at 35 posted 2+ fWAR seasons. Goldschmidt is another example of 31 fWAR so far through 29-37 (he's 38 next year) and he's been a 1b all his career. Positionally Tucker has an advantage. And just to keep the theme, Paul Goldschmidt's career line is really really similar to Tucker as well:

11.7 BB%, 23.1 K%, .213 ISO, 134 wRC+ (from 29-38)
12.7 BB%, 22.7 K%, .222 ISO, 139 wRC+ (career)

If you'd like a cautionary tale, someone like Andrew McCutcheon would be one. But I think it's important to point out - he fell off a cliff and his "fall of a cliff" without any major injury issue or the like" is pretty rare. It's either something akin to Bryant, where injuries hamper you and sap your ability (Tucker doesn't have these) or some sort of baseball flaw (hello, Javy Baez!). Sure, Tucker could McCutcheon, but it's pretty unlikely. Especially considering McCutcheon was was more reliant on his athleticism and his ability to BABIP in the mid .300's than Tucker. 

Secondly, low 60's fWAR does not guarantee a first ballot HoF. Larry Walker (68 fWAR), Gary Sheffield (62), Kenny Lofton (62) and Jim Edmonds (64.5) are all recent examples of OF'ers who hit the same fWAR win and either had to battle year over year to get into the HoF, or are still missing it. Putting Kyle Tucker in that type of a range is pretty normal for the arc he's on. It is also well short of being a "likely first ballot HoF". It puts him on the precipice of HoF but not necessarily in. 

Also, have you looked at Joey Votto's career line? 

145 wRC+, 15,6 BB%, 18.8 K%, .217 ISO

Man, only a stone's throw away from what Tucker's done! But he's going to take a fWAR hit because he's a 1b, and the bar for 1bover RF is much higher for offense. 

Yes, I think Kyle Tucker is worth $400m. I've used math,, I've used other player's who have a similar careers. I've found other 35+ year old players who had success. Yes, I picked the best players - Kyle Tucker is one of the best players in baseball - that's who we should compare him to. All you've posted is a hypothetical aging curve based on a random thought exercise and then got upset when I used a different one. 

If you're not going going to pay Kyle Tucker, a 28 year old with a career 139 wRC+, who has a great skillset for aging, who can move off his position down the road...then you're simply never going to pay anyone good. You'll consistently have to trade off of good players after five years and hope your MiLB side is consistently developing new ones.  If that's your style, hey, you do you, man. But I think it's some small market nonsense and the way I'd assume the Reds and the Pirates would act, not the Chicago Cubs.

You didn't "pick a player who had a similar career line" as Tucker because Justin Turner didn't have a season above replacement level until age 29 and he's not an OF.  Turner had a 0.3 career fWAR at Tucker's current age.  You picked the outlier aging case that most conveniently backed your argument, you can say otherwise but its not the 1st time you've done this debating with me.

If we're going to project what a player will do from age 29-38 then every competent projection system in the world is going to assume the typical average case, which is what I tried to eyeball, not what Justin Turner did, who has an extremely weird career line and age regression.

I'd much prefer the Cubs spend payroll like a large market team but they don't.  They spend like an upper mid-market team, ranked 10th and 9th in tax payroll in 2024 and 2023.  I'd love if Ricketts spent more and extended Tucker.  Hoyer is in a tight spot.

If the FO is forced to have tax-line level payrolls I see no issue if the Cubs FO behaved somewhat like the Brewers but had the money to extend any key players and add better FA's, so similar to the Braves.  They can trade guys like Happ, Suzuki, Nico before they hit FA, reload on prospects and keep the prospects they want and trade others for guys like Tucker/Paredes etc.  Rinse and repeat, seems better than watching your best & most expensive assets depreciate in value every season.  Nobody should complain the Braves don't sign "star" FA's and let their FA's walk if they won't extend.  They won a WS and had 2 straight 100-win seasons before some injuries hit.

[WhyCantWeWin]

39 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Dang I wanted him. Gets a little less than Holmes did. I wonder if they use him as a starter. Basically swapped with the Phillies for Romano.

Thats a solid price for him. Really wish the Cubs were in on that