Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[LBiittner]

17 minutes ago, Tim said:

Bedard is already really good and he's still a teenager. Of course, even at their peaks, Toews and Kane didn't come close to Bears/Cubs/Bulls levels of publicity.

But if the Cubs extend Tucker, he'll be the face of the franchise.

Outside of 30,000 hockey fans in Chicago, who would recognize bedard's face on a milk carton?

Edited January 9, 2025 by LBiittner

[chibears55]

Best thing for the cubs to do this next week is extend both Steele and Tucker.

Not being able to extend Tucker and letting him test FA and likely losing him after 1 season would be a disaster for this franchise and Jed Hoyer.  He would have given up a top prospect and 2 young major league players for 1 season of a player that despite how talented he is, wasn't going to put the roster into championship caliber mode and could still miss out on being in the postseason. 

 

[Jason Ross]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So this is probably worth asking:

How good do you think Roki Sasaki is going to be?  

Because I feel like a lot of people are getting very far out in front of their skis.

Honestly? I think he's going to struggle a bit. And I think there's a bit of a road ahead of him in terms of developing as a pitcher in the Western game ahead of him. He does some things really well - namely, he throws super hard. But he's a very low spin (Lance Brodzowski has him in the bottom 10% of spin in the MLB) even with the smaller, tackier NPB ball and his fastball shape and location are pretty "meh". I think you've got to look at him as a BORP (like, say a #4) in 2025 who's going to struggle to give you more than 120-130 IP but by the end, could be a really damn good pitcher if he takes to changes immediately.

Now that said, you 100% go hard after him regardless. You're not really signing Sasaki for 2025, you're signing him for 2026, 2027, 2028...and I think there's a lot of raw stuff there that a good pitching developmental team is going to get a TORP out of him. Remember, he throws really hard and with some tweaks to the shape, some repertoire tweaks there's a Logan Gilbert guy there (Gilbert is another guy who throws really hard but has super low spin rates). That feels negative, it's not meant to be, I just think he's a lot more raw than a lot of people are giving him credit for. Despite that, this is a "push all of your chips in" situation - especially considering the amount of chips you're playing with is basically "free". 

But I do think people are especially overrating how good Sasaki is going to be immediately.  He's not a ready-made product like Yamamoto nor do the tweak seem as minor as Imanaga (basically, it was "hey dude, throw your amazing fastball up more!"). It is also why I think the Cubs will sign another SP no matter what. Get a Hoffman/Flahrety/Lopez to fill the current top-3 spot and then let Sasaki grow into it.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

3.0-3.3 FIP? Probably pitches 120-140 innings.

Yeah I'm probably toward the higher end of that, but something like Steele/Shota on a rate basis.  So if you combine that with the aesthetics of a triple digit fastball you're looking at someone comparable to Hunter Greene.  Hunter Greene is great!  But I have a feeling fans (and not just Cubs fans in this case) are going to have a meltdown when he's not a god-like rookie like Strasburg or Skenes. 

[Bertz]

Really glad this is no longer 5pm on a Friday

[LBiittner]

For those looking for the next "face" of the cubbies, Thinking Ernie, Fergie, Sammy and Rizzo(yes, rizzo was a face or the spokesperson of the cubs). Although, Tucker is a great player , is he boisterous enough or gregarious to take ahold of the Chicago media? Hmm.

My thoughts,  chicago is the melting pot of the U.S. Sasaki could melt the hearts of Chicago. I'm all in for the mystery of what might be. I'm all about taking on the chance. It's time for Fernandomania to arrive somewhere else besides the left coast. 

Hahaha

[Transmogrified Tiger]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Really glad this is no longer 5pm on a Friday

For those like me who didn't remember the full list, the remaining Cubs arb players without agreed terms are Tucker(MLBTR estimate: 15.8 million), Steele(6.4), Pearson(1.4), and Morgan(1).

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

For those looking for the next "face" of the cubbies, Thinking Ernie, Fergie, Sammy and Rizzo(yes, rizzo was a face or the spokesperson of the cubs). Although, Tucker is a great player , is he boisterous enough or gregarious to take ahold of the Chicago media? Hmm.

My thoughts,  chicago is the melting pot of the U.S. Sasaki could melt the hearts of Chicago. I'm all in for the mystery of what might be. I'm all about taking on the chance. It's time for Fernandomania to arrive somewhere else besides the left coast. 

Hahaha

Sasaki is notoriously reclusive

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Sasaki is notoriously reclusive

So was ernie before ole man wrigley sunk his hooks into him and created the "let's play 2" good kid. 

We need a japanese import other than Toyota or Lexus here in Chicago! I'm not climbing down from this high horse until either I fall or get bucked by the 3rd week of January! High ho silver and gold 

[LBiittner]

Whats happening with diego cartaya? 

[JunkyardWalrus]

57 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I mean the ceiling on Sasaki is basically Justin Verlander if he came up under 2.0 conditions. Check out Verlander’s rookie year and, maybe unless you saw it or note the team’s success or knew more background, it’s hard to see the super mega ace ceiling from how we’ve been trained to view things. Sasaki may not come in and set the league on fire as far as the most aesthetically pleasing lines like Skenes or Strasburg but he’s a great bet to be a first division SP right away with easily a top of the league ace kind of ceiling over time

Had season tickets to the Tigers for his first few seasons (was living in Ann Arbor) and he is easily the best pitcher I've ever seen. Homey was pumping 100+, easily, in the 8th and 9th innings. Like watching a varsity pitcher mow down a coed gym class of slightly autistic octogenarians.

(side note, on his off days, he was fun to watch fight with Granderson as they shagged fly balls in CF. They went after it hard, JV leaping on Grandy's back at one point to try and catch a fly ball before he could and they both toppled laughing. Hadn't ever see professional athletes have so damn much fun. Really easy guy to root for, same for Granderson.)

[squally1313]

Shota is a very outgoing personality and went 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA last year (Fernando rookie year: 13-7, 2.48 ERA), but yes, I'm sure Sasaki is totally capable of performing to the extent it bridges the gap between Shota's niche personality and Fernando-mania

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

[KCCub]

 

 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

 

So much for a surprise Steele extension. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Steele is under team control until his age 33 season, there's no reason to extend him

[Bertz]

20 hours ago, Bertz said:

I would guess it's quite unlikely, but I wonder what the chances are that Tucker gets extended in the next few days in lieu of settling on an arbitration salary.

I think even if we knew 100% that Tucker would get extended, Opening Day +/- two weeks is by far the smartest money for when it would happen.  That said, some reasons I'm wondering about this:

- It would explain the urgency to get the Bellinger deal done despite no teed up followup move

- Not only was there not an immediate followup to the Bellinger deal, it has been deafeningly silent.  The team signed a cheap LH reliever and has been sniffing around various cheap LHH infielders.  These are not things Jed needed to free up $25M for.  You know what $25M could do though?  It could bridge you from a $16M arb salary to a $35M extension salary

- The team absolutely has to sit down and talk dollars with Tucker's camp anyway

- Arbitration negotiations are ugly, and you probably don't want your first substantive interaction with your new star to be so ugly.  Arguing about numbers between $350-400M is presumably less contentious than arguing between $15-17M

Going to keep attempting to manifest this until we hear a Kyle Tucker arb number

[chibears55]

https://x.com/Feinsand/status/1877411995651068242?t=nHuTVZNWEkzm89HGx-8rxg&s=19

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

https://x.com/Feinsand/status/1877411995651068242?t=nHuTVZNWEkzm89HGx-8rxg&s=19

Start reading threads before you post. 

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

https://x.com/Feinsand/status/1877411995651068242?t=nHuTVZNWEkzm89HGx-8rxg&s=19

[Outshined_One]

Can we also stop linking to X?

[CubinNY]

and put in transactions 

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Whats happening with diego cartaya? 

Diego Cartaya is a Twin. Shucks, may have been worth a chance roll of the dice

[Bertz]

Okay the Cubs always wait until the last horsefeathering minute on these sorts of deadlines but two hours is still a lot.  You really do have to wonder if something is up, good or bad.

Edited January 9, 2025 by Bertz

[Rob]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Okay the Cubs always wait until the last horsefeathering minute on these sorts of deadlines but two hours is still a lot.  You really do have to wonder if something is up, good or bad.

I don't think it's so much that the Cubs wait until the last minute. Rather, I think that Jed values secrecy more than most, and so our front office is less inclined to leak things to the press.