Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[Rcal10]

Is Buehler any more of a risk than Luzardo? I am beginning to like the idea of him for just money and keep the prospect over trading for Luzardo. Even if Buehker cost $7M more than Luzardo the Cubs should still be fine with money. At least Nuehler finished the year bearing and looked good in the playoffs. 

[Post Count Padder]

I guess the thinking is you don't give up assets for Buehler but he hasn't been himself or fully healthy since 2021, this postseason aside. And competition for his services could push his price up into risky territory. I am also not keen on giving up great prospects for Luzardo but he comes with a couple years of control and was really good in 2023.

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

I guess the thinking is you don't give up assets for Buehler but he hasn't been himself or fully healthy since 2021, this postseason aside. And competition for his services could push his price up into risky territory. I am also not keen on giving up great prospects for Luzardo but he comes with a couple years of control and was really good in 2023.

I like the idea of not losing a prospect more than I do saving $8M on a cheaper pitcher. I also like Buehler being a right handed pitcher. And he did do well in the post season. If healthy he is every bit as good as a healthy Luzardo. 

[thawv]

Does anybody else think that Burnes is in our plans?  The money is certainly there, and the connection is there. 

[George Hayduke]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

Having 3 SPs all leave at the same time is really rough timing, I think there might be a low key need to trade out of one of Taillon/Boyd/Luzardo and backfill with someone longer term essentially no matter what next winter.

Kind of an aside to this idea…but at this point is there any realistic scenario where Shota underperforms enough in 2025 that the Cubs don’t pick up the remainder of his contract at 3/$54m after this season, but he’s still good enough where he would then pass on his 1/$15m player option?  Seems like an extremely narrow set of circumstances for that to make sense to both sides.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, thawv said:

Does anybody else think that Burnes is in our plans?  The money is certainly there, and the connection is there. 

No. As much as I believe the Cubs can afford both Tucker and Burnes, I believe that the team is far more likely to attempt to extend Tucker than they are to drop $200m on Burnes. I think the team knows that realistically they're not going to drop $65m on two players next year. And I suspect that their plan is Tucker.

[Rcal10]

31 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

No. As much as I believe the Cubs can afford both Tucker and Burnes, I believe that the team is far more likely to attempt to extend Tucker than they are to drop $200m on Burnes. I think the team knows that realistically they're not going to drop $65m on two players next year. And I suspect that their plan is Tucker.

I don’t see Burnes either. Basically for the same reason. I also don’t see Flaherty as a FA or a trade for Castillo or a Cease. I find it hard to believe they will have a $20M+ pitcher in the rotation, that they will be paying for several years, and still sign Tucker to an extension. Cease would be a possibility provided they did not sign him to an extension. If they got him it would be one year, if they did extend Tucker. I think it is Luzardo in a trade or Beuhler on a short term deal. 

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

Not FA but Arenado invoked his NTC to block a deal to the Astros.

Main reason cubs ended up with Tucker

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

The problem I have with going with Cowles or Workman if Shaw struggles is going with a lesser prospect if the higher ranking one fails is not a way a playoff team should operate. They have plenty of money. They can allocate some to a decent bench bat who can play 3rd. Not every one year deal on a bench player has to turn into Mancini. Not all signings turn into a 1 WAR or player. I think they have to sign someone as insurance for Shaw. Maybe not spend $10M. Maybe more in the $5M to $7M range. People talked all year about a terrible bench and now when they have money to add someone to that bench you are suggesting just using Cowles and Workman. I think they have to at least try to get better. 

No I also suggested going to get someone else in a trade or sign someone cheap as more insurance.  Someone projected to be a 1 WAR is a 1 WAR player in my mind.  They should absolutely be able to find someone cheap who can put up 1 WAR if Shaw fails.  They did it with Tauchman and Wisdom.  Moncada sucks, they could probably get as much WAR from Madrigal, who also sucks.  Virtually every time they spend several million on a position guy in FA it turns out badly, with the exception of catcher since that's what most catchers cost.  Villar, Andrelton Simmons, Mancini, Descalso if he counts etc.  Experience doesn't matter at all if you can't play.

I don't care what "a playoff team should do", I care about making the team as good as possible and you don't do that by wasting 6-8 million on a bad player.  Either go get a 3B who doesn't suck or take that 6-8m and use it on their other spending to upgrade a mediocre player they may acquire to a good player, or a good player to a very good player.  If they want to play a sucky player at 3B at least let him be really cheap.  If they spend real money on someone i think he should be at least a 2 WAR type.

[chibears55]

55 minutes ago, thawv said:

Does anybody else think that Burnes is in our plans?  The money is certainly there, and the connection is there. 

I do, at least I'm hoping he is

Id rather see them spend money on a true TOR then trade prospects/assets on a mid SP

[Bertz]

46 minutes ago, George Hayduke said:

Kind of an aside to this idea…but at this point is there any realistic scenario where Shota underperforms enough in 2025 that the Cubs don’t pick up the remainder of his contract at 3/$54m after this season, but he’s still good enough where he would then pass on his 1/$15m player option?  Seems like an extremely narrow set of circumstances for that to make sense to both sides.

Yeah it feels like, especially given how much talent hits FA after '26, Shota's going to be in a situation where you'd rather hold onto him a year too long than a year too little.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Something I've been thinking about since the Tucker trade is this quote from Hawkins:

 

It's possible that he meant it more generally in that they'll bring in someone in some fashion, but it would have been easy to not say "on the free agent market" so I'm thinking they have a specific target in mind.  I think what you're looking for at a minimum is someone to provide some offensive floor and not be an uncompetitive defender at 3rd, and hopefully help with one of these other bench archetypes: 1) Platoon 1B hedge for Busch, 2) 2B backup (preferably LHH), or 3) Platoon CF hedge for PCA.

Of the options out there, there are a few(Polanco, Solano) that would be good fits but they might not be able to be competent enough defensively.  There are a few that are good options for number 2(Rojas, Urias) who might be able to sign with teams offering a larger role.  And there are a few players with pasts that could support them filling number 1(Moncada, Drury, Urshela) who have struggled so much recently that they'd be big gambles as a prospect handcuff.

There have been basically zero rumors about who this might be, so I'm very curious about what they plan on doing.  I think I might be coming around on taking a stab at Urias if they can?  He's got age on his side, is a good bet for a league average bat, and if you are willing to look past last year's limited time when dealing with injury, a cromulent defender at 2B and 3B.  The main downside is from a pure splits perspective he's a bit duplicative with Shaw, and he's a bit small to fill in at 1B even in favorable offensive matchups, but there's no perfect option here.

[thawv]

13 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Something I've been thinking about since the Tucker trade is this quote from Hawkins:

 

It's possible that he meant it more generally in that they'll bring in someone in some fashion, but it would have been easy to not say "on the free agent market" so I'm thinking they have a specific target in mind.  I think what you're looking for at a minimum is someone to provide some offensive floor and not be an uncompetitive defender at 3rd, and hopefully help with one of these other bench archetypes: 1) Platoon 1B hedge for Busch, 2) 2B backup (preferably LHH), or 3) Platoon CF hedge for PCA.

Of the options out there, there are a few(Polanco, Solano) that would be good fits but they might not be able to be competent enough defensively.  There are a few that are good options for number 2(Rojas, Urias) who might be able to sign with teams offering a larger role.  And there are a few players with pasts that could support them filling number 1(Moncada, Drury, Urshela) who have struggled so much recently that they'd be big gambles as a prospect handcuff.

There have been basically zero rumors about who this might be, so I'm very curious about what they plan on doing.  I think I might be coming around on taking a stab at Urias if they can?  He's got age on his side, is a good bet for a league average bat, and if you are willing to look past last year's limited time when dealing with injury, a cromulent defender at 2B and 3B.  The main downside is from a pure splits perspective he's a bit duplicative with Shaw, and he's a bit small to fill in at 1B even in favorable offensive matchups, but there's no perfect option here.

That's code for, the job is Shaw's to lose.

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Stratos said:

No I also suggested going to get someone else in a trade or sign someone cheap as more insurance.  Someone projected to be a 1 WAR is a 1 WAR player in my mind.  They should absolutely be able to find someone cheap who can put up 1 WAR if Shaw fails.  They did it with Tauchman and Wisdom.  Moncada sucks, they could probably get as much WAR from Madrigal, who also sucks.  Virtually every time they spend several million on a position guy in FA it turns out badly, with the exception of catcher since that's what most catchers cost.  Villar, Andrelton Simmons, Mancini, Descalso if he counts etc.  Experience doesn't matter at all if you can't play.

I don't care what "a playoff team should do", I care about making the team as good as possible and you don't do that by wasting 6-8 million on a bad player.  Either go get a 3B who doesn't suck or take that 6-8m and use it on their other spending to upgrade a mediocre player they may acquire to a good player, or a good player to a very good player.  If they want to play a sucky player at 3B at least let him be really cheap.  If they spend real money on someone i think he should be at least a 2 WAR type.

No matter who they sign it will be a risk. They aren’t going to get a sure fire 2+WAR guy as a free agent for $6M to $8M. I also doubt they spend a lot of money to get a starting 3rd baseman. I realize they have had luck with those short term cheap signings, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t work out well with some guys. Look at Grichek and Pederson last year. Each signed cheaply and had great years. While Moncada hasn’t been better than Madrigal the past few years, he has far more upside. Plus they need a guy who can also play 1st. That isn’t Madrigal. At lesst Moncada has a high ceiling. But this isn’t about Moncada anyway. It is about anyone they sign for that amount. It will be a roll of the dice if they are any good. That is all you get for that amount money for a FA. And I don’t want to trade anyone for a back up bench bat. There are numerous guys who will probably sign for $6M to $8M. Moncada, Polanco, Dejong, Solano, Urshela, maybe Urias. My guess is at least one of two of them will have decent years. They just have to pick the right one. 
I actually think whoever they sign will be strictly a back up. I am pretty bullish on Shaw and expect him to be good. But it would be great to have a solid back up for 1st and 3rd.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

That's code for, the job is Shaw's to lose.

I agree with this. But I also think they need a solid back up for both 1st and 3rd. And he needs to be able to bat from the right side. 

[Rcal10]

44 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Main reason cubs ended up with Tucker

What does this mean? What does Arenado not accepting a trade to Houston have to do with the Cubs getting  Tucker? Houston was going to move Paredes to first had Arenado agreed to the trade. His decision has nothing to do with the Cubs getting Tucker. 

[Bertz]

32 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Something I've been thinking about since the Tucker trade is this quote from Hawkins:

 

It's possible that he meant it more generally in that they'll bring in someone in some fashion, but it would have been easy to not say "on the free agent market" so I'm thinking they have a specific target in mind.  I think what you're looking for at a minimum is someone to provide some offensive floor and not be an uncompetitive defender at 3rd, and hopefully help with one of these other bench archetypes: 1) Platoon 1B hedge for Busch, 2) 2B backup (preferably LHH), or 3) Platoon CF hedge for PCA.

Of the options out there, there are a few(Polanco, Solano) that would be good fits but they might not be able to be competent enough defensively.  There are a few that are good options for number 2(Rojas, Urias) who might be able to sign with teams offering a larger role.  And there are a few players with pasts that could support them filling number 1(Moncada, Drury, Urshela) who have struggled so much recently that they'd be big gambles as a prospect handcuff.

There have been basically zero rumors about who this might be, so I'm very curious about what they plan on doing.  I think I might be coming around on taking a stab at Urias if they can?  He's got age on his side, is a good bet for a league average bat, and if you are willing to look past last year's limited time when dealing with injury, a cromulent defender at 2B and 3B.  The main downside is from a pure splits perspective he's a bit duplicative with Shaw, and he's a bit small to fill in at 1B even in favorable offensive matchups, but there's no perfect option here.

I know Trueblood poopooed Polanco as a 3B last winter, and it certainly doesn't help that he's had a leg injury since then, but man would he be a fun lefty bat to bring in.  

I also really want to know if Tucker is willing to play CF or (less likely) 1B.  If you only need to worry about the IF or only need to worry about up the middle finding two bench guys for three spots is pretty easy.

[Andy]

47 minutes ago, thawv said:

That's code for, the job is Shaw's to lose.

It wasn't even code. Hawkins might as well have been wearing a baseball cap with "MATT SHAW FOR THIRD BASE" on it.

[chibears55]

 

https://x.com/670TheScore/status/1869571082271027412?t=UFJTkdCRnxSmcBs6BrcueQ&s=19

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

That's code for, the job is Shaw's to lose.

Hoyer said the other day that they're not just going to hand it to Shaw.  He seems like the obvious frontrunner and if all things are equal he likely gets it, but if someone looks better in ST they might go that way, who knows.  I think the job is up for grabs from the sounds of it.

Last year offseason the Cubs were much more upfront about giving the job to Busch on OD and giving him a shot.

[Rcal10]

So with Luzardo out of the picture now, who do the Cubs look too? Cease would be awesome,  but not sure the cost and not sure the teams match up. Aren’t the padres planning on competing this year? They woukd want major league talent back. Seattle would also want major league talent back. So not sure about either of those teams. Maybe look to the Twins. They are said to be looking to cut payroll and still compete. Maybe a guy like Lopez works. Give them back Assad and Triantos for starters. Maybe add Canario or better. That gives them someone they can put in the rotation or the pen if they want to put Jax in the rotation, as well as a couple of prospects. It also lowers their team salary. They actually have a lot of interesting options. Ryan and Ober are also options. So is Jax, if the Cubs view him as a potential starter. But all of those guys don’t cost that much so moving them doesn’t save the Twins money. Lopez does.
Back to Seattle, Castillo would be fine, but I don’t see a match. If the Cubs did get Castillo from Seattle another team would have to be involved who wanted a prospect. Not giving up Hoerner for him. Honestly I am not interested in trading any major league offense for a pitcher. Cubs need what they have. They need to get a pitcher in trade by using their minor league assets or sign a FA pitcher. Don’t touch the regular guys in the line up. 

[TarzanJoeWallis]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So with Luzardo out of the picture now, who do the Cubs look too? Cease would be awesome,  but not sure the cost and not sure the teams match up. Aren’t the padres planning on competing this year? They woukd want major league talent back. Seattle would also want major league talent back. So not sure about either of those teams. Maybe look to the Twins. They are said to be looking to cut payroll and still compete. Maybe a guy like Lopez works. Give them back Assad and Triantos for starters. Maybe add Canario or better. That gives them someone they can put in the rotation or the pen if they want to put Jax in the rotation, as well as a couple of prospects. It also lowers their team salary. They actually have a lot of interesting options. Ryan and Ober are also options. So is Jax, if the Cubs view him as a potential starter. But all of those guys don’t cost that much so moving them doesn’t save the Twins money. Lopez does.
Back to Seattle, Castillo would be fine, but I don’t see a match. If the Cubs did get Castillo from Seattle another team would have to be involved who wanted a prospect. Not giving up Hoerner for him. Honestly I am not interested in trading any major league offense for a pitcher. Cubs need what they have. They need to get a pitcher in trade by using their minor league assets or sign a FA pitcher. Don’t touch the regular guys in the line up. 

What if they use Hoerner in a package to get a good, cost controlled young starter, move Shaw to second, and then have a bunch of money to address third? 

[CubinNY]

17 hours ago, CubinNY said:

at this point I don't think banking on Luzardo is sure thing. They could ditch it and go bigger. I'm happy with whatever they do. I like it better when they are trying to win and not compete. 

Discount Nostradamus 

[Cuzi]

38 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

What if they use Hoerner in a package to get a good, cost controlled young starter, move Shaw to second, and then have a bunch of money to address third? 

Does it matter if you have a bunch of money to address 3B when the options for 3B arent worth a bunch of money?

[TarzanJoeWallis]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Does it matter if you have a bunch of money to address 3B when the options for 3B arent worth a bunch of money?

Could also be a trade for a third baseman. I don’t have anyone in mind, but I think Shaw gives them the flexibility to move Hoerner if it makes sense. That’s my main point.