Winter Meetings thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Don't be afraid to use start a new thread if there would be several posts of discussion about it, but this can be a home base for the week of the winter meetings.  We'll be locking the non-Soto FA thread(which we don't want to turn into an offseason-long megathread) to avoid confusion.

[Bertz]

The general sense was that all hell would break loose after Soto signed.  So that happening in conjunction with the meetings starting should hopefully make this a fun couple of days.

Edited December 9, 2024 by Bertz

[Stratos]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The general sense was that all hell would break loose after Soto signed.  So that happening in conjunction with the meetings starting should hopefully make this a fun couple of days.

Took a few hours for the Dodgers to spend most of their Soto AAV money LOL.

Edited December 9, 2024 by Stratos

[KCCub]

Hey, our old pal the cat is back at it -

 

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, KCCub said:

Hey, our old pal the cat is back at it

Going to have to be a big offer, since we've got the Mariners on the other line itching to give up Castillo for him.

All joking aside, if the Cubs end up trading him, I wonder how much of a deep dive the Cubs have done on Jurickson Profars changes. He's seemingly getting lost in the shuffle for potential bats. He's always been pretty patient at the plate, but this last season he opened up his stance and exaggerated his leg kick and 86-87 career exit velocity to 91. He was pretty solid throughout the entire season.

[Jason Ross]

I'm still curious as to what the plan with Bellinger is. Clearly the team would rather reallocate that money, but I figured someone like Conforto was appealing in that you could spend half and *maybe* can't similar production. With him off the table, it's hard to find a fit I think the team goes after. Santander has the QO. Teoscar's market seems too hot. Profar feels like you'd have to super wait that out. The way the team has seemingly acted with Bellinger; begging him to opt out then making it clear they'd like to trade him makes you feel like "theres a real plan here". With Soto signing and options dwindling...I'm curious to see what they have had in mind.

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm still curious as to what the plan with Bellinger is. Clearly the team would rather reallocate that money, but I figured someone like Conforto was appealing in that you could spend half and *maybe* can't similar production. With him off the table, it's hard to find a fit I think the team goes after. Santander has the QO. Teoscar's market seems too hot. Profar feels like you'd have to super wait that out. The way the team has seemingly acted with Bellinger; begging him to opt out then making it clear they'd like to trade him makes you feel like "theres a real plan here". With Soto signing and options dwindling...I'm curious to see what they have had in mind.

Hoyer doesn't have a plan; he has the concept of a plan.

[Bertz]

Alex Bregman is totally getting $200M now

 

[KCCub]

Interesting - 

 

[CubinNY]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm still curious as to what the plan with Bellinger is. Clearly the team would rather reallocate that money, but I figured someone like Conforto was appealing in that you could spend half and *maybe* can't similar production. With him off the table, it's hard to find a fit I think the team goes after. Santander has the QO. Teoscar's market seems too hot. Profar feels like you'd have to super wait that out. The way the team has seemingly acted with Bellinger; begging him to opt out then making it clear they'd like to trade him makes you feel like "theres a real plan here". With Soto signing and options dwindling...I'm curious to see what they have had in mind.

Granted, I don't have a real good imagination, but I'm having a hard time figuring out how trading Bellinger and reallocating his money will make the club better. Maybe Jed will pull a rabbit out of his hat. 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Granted, I don't have a real good imagination, but I'm having a hard time figuring out how trading Bellinger and reallocating his money will make the club better. Maybe Jed will pull a rabbit out of his hat. 

Yeah, I've wondered that a bit too. There are some utility situations I understand. Like, say for example, the Mariners won't move off a young and controllable arm, and the White Sox are being stingy with Crochet. So you flip Bellinger for Castillo, then think you have a better chance to acquire a controllable hitter. We can debate the Bellinger/Castillo framework, but it gives the Cubs more creativity - you could conceivably bring in any hitter in that situation because DH would be wide open. 

[Banedon]

14 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

 

If there’s a player who should trigger a mass exodus of Cubs fans if they miss…23 YO superstar who literally can’t be paid what corporate media and familiars would paint as a crushing gazillion Disney bucks/dollars 

That's pretty silly.  There's going to be a lot of powerhouse teams going for this guy.  Yes, they should go after him, but ultimately it's his choice.

[Bertz]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm still curious as to what the plan with Bellinger is. Clearly the team would rather reallocate that money, but I figured someone like Conforto was appealing in that you could spend half and *maybe* can't similar production. With him off the table, it's hard to find a fit I think the team goes after. Santander has the QO. Teoscar's market seems too hot. Profar feels like you'd have to super wait that out. The way the team has seemingly acted with Bellinger; begging him to opt out then making it clear they'd like to trade him makes you feel like "theres a real plan here". With Soto signing and options dwindling...I'm curious to see what they have had in mind.

I know there has been a small amount of smoke around Santander, and he doesn't sound imminent so the timing would likely work out.

My guess though is there's less of a direct replacement planned and more of a "spread the money" planned.  Like a lot of the rumoring says they're not just looking to dump his salary.  Now maybe that's face-saving (in fact it's almost surely face-saving), but either way the reality is probably less of a clean break and more of something else coming back.  Let's call it Bellinger for Ryan Pressly because I think that's the cleanest deal.

You've now got closer checked off the list and added $10M to the piggybank, leaving ~$40M total. I wouldn't call that plenty to do the rest of the offseason shopping, but it's doable.  And if you knock out SP with a trade for someone cost controlled, it's suddenly plenty.

[Irrelevant Dude]

As down as I have been on the Cubs and their entire front office approach, I don't know how much blame I can really assign if they miss out on Sasaki.  There is just so much outside of their control in this process and it mostly comes down to the personal preferences of Sasaki.  There isn't a single team who wouldn't want him for the amount of money that will be required.  If he wants to play somewhere else for whatever reason, there isn't much that can be done to convince him otherwise.  But let's just hope that he is open to playing in Chicago.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Banedon said:

That's pretty silly.  There's going to be a lot of powerhouse teams going for this guy.  Yes, they should go after him, but ultimately it's his choice.

Exactly. There are plenty of offseason outcomes I'll some version of "annoyed" about but Sasaki isn't one. The Cubs are seemingly going to put out the fullest court press they can here, but with the IFA rules, there's no version of brute forcing this, it's likely going to be more of an agility training course. Which in many ways may favor the Cubs moreso than brute force - unless he's just dead set somewhere.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I know there has been a small amount of smoke around Santander, and he doesn't sound imminent so the timing would likely work out.

My guess though is there's less of a direct replacement planned and more of a "spread the money" planned.  Like a lot of the rumoring says they're not just looking to dump his salary.  Now maybe that's face-saving (in fact it's almost surely face-saving), but either way the reality is probably less of a clean break and more of something else coming back.  Let's call it Bellinger for Ryan Pressly because I think that's the cleanest deal.

You've now got closer checked off the list and added $10M to the piggybank, leaving ~$40M total. I wouldn't call that plenty to do the rest of the offseason shopping, but it's doable.  And if you knock out SP with a trade for someone cost controlled, it's suddenly plenty.

That's the thing though - the "spread the money around" options are...drying up. And probably will dry up more as we go along. 

I'll say this; it could work, but it feels like trading Bellinger without a set plan feels...precarious as of now. With a few more of the options off the table, it feels like a situation you could come out the back end and be...maybe no better. Which isn't to say that there isn't a pathway there, but feels like something that I'd rather the team have a plan for. 

[Bertz]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

That's the thing though - the "spread the money around" options are...drying up. And probably will dry up more as we go along. 

I'll say this; it could work, but it feels like trading Bellinger without a set plan feels...precarious as of now. With a few more of the options off the table, it feels like a situation you could come out the back end and be...maybe no better. 

Are they?  14 of MLBTR's top 20 FAs are still on the board.  36 of the top 50.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Bertz said:

I know there has been a small amount of smoke around Santander, and he doesn't sound imminent so the timing would likely work out.

My guess though is there's less of a direct replacement planned and more of a "spread the money" planned.  Like a lot of the rumoring says they're not just looking to dump his salary.  Now maybe that's face-saving (in fact it's almost surely face-saving), but either way the reality is probably less of a clean break and more of something else coming back.  Let's call it Bellinger for Ryan Pressly because I think that's the cleanest deal.

You've now got closer checked off the list and added $10M to the piggybank, leaving ~$40M total. I wouldn't call that plenty to do the rest of the offseason shopping, but it's doable.  And if you knock out SP with a trade for someone cost controlled, it's suddenly plenty.

That would be baffling to me. Let's get rid of Bellinger so we can give 4/90ish to Santander who can barely fake it in RF. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Bertz said:

Are they?  14 of MLBTR's top 20 FAs are still on the board.  36 of the top 50.

For FAs that fit both budget and need, yeah.

[Irrelevant Dude]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

For FAs that fit both budget and need, yeah.

The Venn diagram of Cubs budget and need does not intersect.

[Tryptamine]

Not that I am in anyway advocating this, but I wonder given that we've heard about the Cubs supposed interest in Alonso on several occasions over the last two years, Is a Cody dump potentially a cap clearing move to bring in Pete? I don't want him anywhere near the 6-7 years he supposedly wants and I think he gets overpaid because HRs despite being no better than Santander with the bat. 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Are they?  14 of MLBTR's top 20 FAs are still on the board.  36 of the top 50.

Of the "spread the money around" while replacing Bellinger? Yeah, I'd say so. The issue isn't the number of players left but the quality. We can probably eliminate the top level - so like Fried and Burns barely count for this procedure. Then we have to ask "how likely are the Cubs to dip into the QO level?" While I don't want to say never the reporting on this has been pretty much indicating they aren't interested in going there. Maybe the math on that changes mid-January, but that's why I'd put it as "precarious". You're hoping that someone you like enough to sign has their market drop. I think as of now, it's probably far more likely than not that these are not on the current radar.

Lastly, you have the "guys I don't think are an upgrade" group. Paul Goldschmidt has taken some massive hits to his satatcast data and has the look of someone who's lost steps As a lefty-masher off the bench? Maybe. As a Bellinger replacement? No thanks. (Just using a name here). 

So you're left looking at lagely the middle of that group. Like, do we think Gleyber Torres is going to be 2022 or 2023 Torres with the bat? Maybe he's a useful DH. You've got Joc Pederson, and while I think he's interesting, he's been pretty platoony (though it's gotten a bit better) and he's very locked into DH - not the worst thing but offers less lineup freedom. But there's just not a ton of this middle group you'd go and be quite excited about with the loss of the Confortos and the O'Niels. I'd probably have a different and wider feel on this group if we hadn't locked in Boyd - you could do a spread it out and just absolutely shove on the rotation and go cheap with Bellinger being gone, but with Boyd, I feel like the addition there has be more specific. 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

For FAs that fit both budget and need, yeah.

Again, are they?  The Cubs have a generic need for another bat and would like another starter and reliever.  Aside from a defensive minded infielder like Ha Seong Kim, they have a roster fit for essentially anyone. 

And financially if Bellinger’s gone I'm not sure if anyone left outside of Burnes is outside of their financial orbit.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Of the "spread the money around" while replacing Bellinger? Yeah, I'd say so. The issue isn't the number of players left but the quality. We can probably eliminate the top level - so like Fried and Burns barely count for this procedure. Then we have to ask "how likely are the Cubs to dip into the QO level?" While I don't want to say never the reporting on this has been pretty much indicating they aren't interested in going there. Maybe the math on that changes mid-January, but that's why I'd put it as "precarious". You're hoping that someone you like enough to sign has their market drop. I think as of now, it's probably far more likely than not that these are not on the current radar.

Lastly, you have the "guys I don't think are an upgrade" group. Paul Goldschmidt has taken some massive hits to his satatcast data and has the look of someone who's lost steps As a lefty-masher off the bench? Maybe. As a Bellinger replacement? No thanks. (Just using a name here). 

So you're left looking at lagely the middle of that group. Like, do we think Gleyber Torres is going to be 2022 or 2023 Torres with the bat? Maybe he's a useful DH. You've got Joc Pederson, and while I think he's interesting, he's been pretty platoony (though it's gotten a bit better) and he's very locked into DH - not the worst thing but offers less lineup freedom. But there's just not a ton of this middle group you'd go and be quite excited about with the loss of the Confortos and the O'Niels. I'd probably have a different and wider feel on this group if we hadn't locked in Boyd - you could do a spread it out and just absolutely shove on the rotation and go cheap with Bellinger being gone, but with Boyd, I feel like the addition there has be more specific. 

If you're spreading the money around, there's no reason to filter out guys like Goldschmidt or Joc. who are not direct upgrades. That's the whole point, Bellinger's $25M becomes e.g. 2 guys at $10M a piece and another at $5M.  

[CubinNY]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Again, are they?  The Cubs have a generic need for another bat and would like another starter and reliever.  Aside from a defensive minded infielder like Ha Seong Kim, they have a roster fit for essentially anyone. 

And financially if Bellinger’s gone I'm not sure if anyone left outside of Burnes is outside of their financial orbit.

Depending on who they get for Bellinger, they may need two bats, a guy who can play OF (maybe Canerio fills that spot, barely), and a guy who can play 1B unless they go let the young guys play and fill the role with OWNKC

Edited December 9, 2024 by CubinNY