Cubs sign Matt Boyd (2/29)

[We Got The Whole 9]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If they sign Flaherty as well they're going to have almost nothing to address the bullpen and bench.

If they have 45 to spend I'm not wasting it on the bench.

 

Boyd gets 7.5 this year anyway, plus the 5M bonus. So doesn't he count as 7.5 AAV, or is it 12.5? Either way

 

Boyd 12.5

Flaherty 21 

Robertson or Scott 10 

 

Works for me. Trade for pre-arb bench help.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

If they have 45 to spend I'm not wasting it on the bench.

 

Boyd gets 7.5 this year anyway, plus the 5M bonus. So doesn't he count as 7.5 AAV, or is it 12.5? Either way

 

Boyd 12.5

Flaherty 21 

Robertson or Scott 10 

 

Works for me. Trade for pre-arb bench help.

That's now how it works in baseball. In baseball the cap hit is the average annual value of the contract. 

[Rcal10]

In an effort to put a positive spin on this move, maybe this will be the 2024 version of the Lugo signing of 23’. He wasn’t the most sought after pitcher in his mid 30’s, and he signed a 2 year deal for $30M. I am certain many considered the Royals out of their minds for that signing. But it worked out. Same with Manaea and even Severino last year. It isn’t always the top pitchers who prove to  be the best signings. I actually like Boyd a bit. Just not at this dollar amount and not as the only move. 

[Backtobanks]

47 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I would. As of right now, the bottom of the rotation is probably plenty deep, with Boyd, Assad, Wicks, Birdsell, Brown, and Horton (and maybe Pearson!) all capable of taking starts sometime in 2025. With limited monetary resources, and a need to really bolster the back end of the bullpen, spending more to mix and match even more in that aspect is probably overkill and a mismanagement of funds. 

Jed should have signed Lorenzen instead of Boyd and saved money in the process.

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

That's now how it works in baseball. In baseball the cap hit is the average annual value of the contract. 

That's right. Either way I'd be fine with him allocating the money like that.

[Cuzi]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

In an effort to put a positive spin on this move, maybe this will be the 2024 version of the Lugo signing of 23’. He wasn’t the most sought after pitcher in his mid 30’s, and he signed a 2 year deal for $30M. I am certain many considered the Royals out of their minds for that signing. But it worked out. Same with Manaea and even Severino last year. It isn’t always the top pitchers who prove to  be the best signings. I actually like Boyd a bit. Just not at this dollar amount and not as the only move. 

Lugo was a reliever turned starter, though. Boyd is a starter with reliever innings.

[Rcal10]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Lugo was a reliever turned starter, though. Boyd is a starter with reliever innings.

I didn’t say they were the same people. Just saying often a signing that people don’t particularly like turns out to be pretty good. I am not comparing the two. And, I am basically just trying to say something positive. I know a lot of people hate Jed and think he is a complete lame brain, but maybe the Cubs FO does have some encouraging reports on Boyd. Maybe they are all nincompoops. MAYBE????🤷🤞

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

That's right. Either way I'd be fine with him allocating the money like that.

You're ready for the Bench to be Thaiss, Canario, Mastrobouni and Vazquez? I'm not sure that bench could OPS .600.

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I didn’t say they were the same people. Just saying often a signing that people don’t particularly like turns out to be pretty good. I am not comparing the two. And, I am basically just trying to say something positive. I know a lot of people hate Jed and think he is a complete lame brain, but maybe the Cubs FO does have some encouraging reports on Boyd. Maybe they are all nincompoops. MAYBE????🤷🤞

They've been spending tens of millions more on the roster than anyone in the division and have yet to make the playoffs. There's no maybe any more.

My only hope is that when Jed is finally gone, the only person in the organization that is sincere about making a 90+ win team (Counsel) gets a larger voice in the meetings.

Edited December 2, 2024 by Cuzi

[We Got The Whole 9]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

You're ready for the Bench to be Thaiss, Canario, Mastrobouni and Vazquez? I'm not sure that bench could OPS .600.

Yeah, for 2-3 months keeping seats warm for Triantos, Alcantara, Shaw, Mo, sure. 

 

Jed could also upgrade it by trading. Totally against the idea of spending money on it.

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Jed should have signed Lorenzen instead of Boyd and saved money in the process.

 

I'm on the fence on Boyd, but I'm fully out on Lorenzen. He'll pitch more but he's much worse when he does. He doesn't do anything particularly well and most of the things he does poorly. His best quality last year was average exit velocity, with him finishing in the 58th percentile. He was below 50% on every other baseballs savant metric with many things (such as chase, K%, whiff...) being below the 15% marker. 

Durability matters to a degree. But the Cubs need quality most right now. Someone else can take the plunge on a guy like Lorenzen. He's likely going to be not good.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Yeah, for 2-3 months keeping seats warm for Triantos, Alcantara, Shaw, Mo, sure. 

 

Jed could also upgrade it by trading. Totally against the idea of spending money on it.

The Cubs aren't really good enough to roll with a bench of garbage. And even with your plan, probably aren't good enough. They have to win on margins and with depth offensively, if they experience any hit to that depth pre-June it's probably going to be not great. They don't have a bat you can count on to really carry the load, and dispersing it will matter. As will load management.

They can probably achieve the same level of SP quality through a trade, while building a strong bench and bullpen to mitigate that better than signing taking what they have and throwing it at a Flaherty. And I'd argue using a few guys like Alcantara or Triantos in a trade, will better maximize their value than filling them on the bench. You can find pretty useful bench options without a super hard search, especially if you pick tools that work well with your current roster.

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs aren't really good enough to roll with a bench of garbage. And even with your plan, probably aren't good enough. They have to win on margins and with depth offensively, if they experience any hit to that depth pre-June it's probably going to be not great. They don't have a bat you can count on to really carry the load, and dispersing it will matter. As will load management.

They can probably achieve the same level of SP quality through a trade, while building a strong bench and bullpen to mitigate that better than signing taking what they have and throwing it at a Flaherty. And I'd argue using a few guys like Alcantara or Triantos in a trade, will better maximize their value than filling them on the bench. You can find pretty useful bench options without a super hard search, especially if you pick tools that work well with your current roster.

I'm still holding out hope for a cost controlled bat or arm (through a pretty significant prospect cost), and then the rest of the free agent money going mostly to the one they don't trade for, with whatever's left shoring up the pen or catcher. Bellinger becoming your de facto first guy off the bench makes me a lot less worried about the other two non-catcher guys on there. Shaw or Triantos will still be there in case of a Paredes/Swanson/Hoerner injury, Happ/PCA/Seiya/Bellinger/Busch/new bat/whoever is left of Caissie/Alcantara can handle any other injuries. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm still holding out hope for a cost controlled bat or arm (through a pretty significant prospect cost), and then the rest of the free agent money going mostly to the one they don't trade for, with whatever's left shoring up the pen or catcher. Bellinger becoming your de facto first guy off the bench makes me a lot less worried about the other two non-catcher guys on there. Shaw or Triantos will still be there in case of a Paredes/Swanson/Hoerner injury, Happ/PCA/Seiya/Bellinger/Busch/new bat/whoever is left of Caissie/Alcantara can handle any other injuries. 

I think the dream of an offense-shifting-bat coming to the team is pretty dead, unless they off-load Bellinger. With limited space, and limited PA's, it's we're looking at a backup catcher who slots in as a 1a/1b type with Amaya (Higashioka or Kelley makes sense) above Thaiss and maybe a Wisdom replacement. 

I do think the Cubs will make a trade for a SP who's cost controlled. My hope is that they shoot particularly high here as someone who's not something you have to worry about being a bang-on-top-3 guy and someone who could even push an Imanaga or a Steele as their 2nd best arm in 2025. Especially with some uncertainty behind how much we can count on Boyd, that's kind of my "key to the offseason" at this stage. If the Cubs can bring in someone you feel confident there...I think the Cubs will be on pace to be a favorite in the NL Central. 

What I don't want is another arm that creates further variance for a team that feels like they've been riding a wave of variance for two years already. Boyd only adds to that variance. Get someone you can be confident on.

[CubinNY]

25 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think the dream of an offense-shifting-bat coming to the team is pretty dead, unless they off-load Bellinger. With limited space, and limited PA's, it's we're looking at a backup catcher who slots in as a 1a/1b type with Amaya (Higashioka or Kelley makes sense) above Thaiss and maybe a Wisdom replacement. 

I do think the Cubs will make a trade for a SP who's cost controlled. My hope is that they shoot particularly high here as someone who's not something you have to worry about being a bang-on-top-3 guy and someone who could even push an Imanaga or a Steele as their 2nd best arm in 2025. Especially with some uncertainty behind how much we can count on Boyd, that's kind of my "key to the offseason" at this stage. If the Cubs can bring in someone you feel confident there...I think the Cubs will be on pace to be a favorite in the NL Central. 

What I don't want is another arm that creates further variance for a team that feels like they've been riding a wave of variance for two years already. Boyd only adds to that variance. Get someone you can be confident on.

You've got to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative, and don't go messing with mister in-between. 

The Cubs are dead stuck in concrete with mister in-between and paying a premium price to do it. Jed the value man is not getting the value he needs to move this team from mediocre to World Series contender.  

[squally1313]

24 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think the dream of an offense-shifting-bat coming to the team is pretty dead, unless they off-load Bellinger. With limited space, and limited PA's, it's we're looking at a backup catcher who slots in as a 1a/1b type with Amaya (Higashioka or Kelley makes sense) above Thaiss and maybe a Wisdom replacement. 

I do think the Cubs will make a trade for a SP who's cost controlled. My hope is that they shoot particularly high here as someone who's not something you have to worry about being a bang-on-top-3 guy and someone who could even push an Imanaga or a Steele as their 2nd best arm in 2025. Especially with some uncertainty behind how much we can count on Boyd, that's kind of my "key to the offseason" at this stage. If the Cubs can bring in someone you feel confident there...I think the Cubs will be on pace to be a favorite in the NL Central. 

What I don't want is another arm that creates further variance for a team that feels like they've been riding a wave of variance for two years already. Boyd only adds to that variance. Get someone you can be confident on.

Yeah you're probably right just in that even a 'cost controlled' game changer in the rotation or the lineup is probably in the $10m-$15m range, if not higher. Me and everyone else keeps coming back to the Mariners just because of the different pieces (Miller/Woo at league minimum, Kirby for cheap, Castillo/Bellinger swap, Bellinger in general to shore up their RF/DH spots, Haniger as salary relief, good amount of prospects on both sides to square things up, similar position on the 'contention' scale, etc etc etc) and all the ways they can fit together, but being stuck with one team for all my dreams is probably wishful thinking.

[Bull]

56 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

You're ready for the Bench to be Thaiss, Canario, Mastrobouni and Vazquez? I'm not sure that bench could OPS .600.

I would love to see Shaw and Caissie start the year at 2B and RF, Hoerner traded for a young controlled SP, and Bellinger at first and Busch on the bench (getting plenty of time at 1B, 2B and DH) and insurance for Shaw.

It won't happen but I think it would be an interesting solution. and that would be a fun team to watch.

[JHBulls]

With a signing like this, we have well and truly broken the needle. Now it’s time to go and win the division against the other big market juggernauts.

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah you're probably right just in that even a 'cost controlled' game changer in the rotation or the lineup is probably in the $10m-$15m range, if not higher. Me and everyone else keeps coming back to the Mariners just because of the different pieces (Miller/Woo at league minimum, Kirby for cheap, Castillo/Bellinger swap, Bellinger in general to shore up their RF/DH spots, Haniger as salary relief, good amount of prospects on both sides to square things up, similar position on the 'contention' scale, etc etc etc) and all the ways they can fit together, but being stuck with one team for all my dreams is probably wishful thinking.

Oh I don't disagree. I'd love the Cubs to add a more offensive shifting piece as well. I think they've built a fairly solid lineup, but I retain that it lacks someone to carry the team through some of the tougher times. While even the best teams struggle with consistency (the myth of a consistent lineup just doesn't exist) I do think some of the best players help smooth over those rough patches and can steal you a win here or there during those more "slumpy" times.

Instead, I'll hope they do that in the rotation with getting another guy who can help smooth over the variance which has been both a bug and a feature of the Cubs in 2023 (where I think their variance helped carry them into contention) and 2024 (where winds at Wrigley coupled with injuries and just some negative outcomes at times) helped hurt their contention. Boyd is going to add to varient outcomes simply because IDK what we're getting here and the comps for Boyd are pretty much non-existent (mid-30's, injury history, funk-ass mechanics, pitch mix...throw it into a mixer and he's pretty 1-of-1). Give me something I can bank on.

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Bull said:

I would love to see Shaw and Caissie start the year at 2B and RF, Hoerner traded for a young controlled SP, and Bellinger at first and Busch on the bench (getting plenty of time at 1B, 2B and DH) and insurance for Shaw.

It won't happen but I think it would be an interesting solution. and that would be a fun team to watch.

Nor should this happen. Why would Busch be in the bench for Cassie to play? Plus right now they aren’t getting anything for Hoerner. 

[Post Count Padder]

Thinking about this more and just thinking about Boyd's durability is maybe the plan is to start him and get 4 innings and piggyback Assad or Brown. It's not the best use of resources but it would limit the usage on Boyd's arm? Idk. 

[Bull]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

Nor should this happen. Why would Busch be in the bench for Cassie to play? Plus right now they aren’t getting anything for Hoerner. 

He wouldn't, really. Busch, Belly, Shaw and Caissie would each get about the same number of AB's/play the hot hand and platoon (taking a couple here and there from Dansby and Paredes)

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Nor should this happen. Why would Busch be in the bench for Cassie to play? Plus right now they aren’t getting anything for Hoerner. 

Still not sure why people are so eager to make guys like Paredes/Busch/Hoerner trade bait or back up players. They combined for like 10 fWAR last year.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Bull said:

He wouldn't, really. Busch, Belly, Shaw and Caissie would each get about the same number of AB's/play the hot hand and platoon (taking a couple here and there from Dansby and Paredes)

I really love Shaw and Caissie but neither should be relied upon Day 1 for a team who's in the state the Cubs are - just good enough that you can believe they can win the division but with plenty of negative variance opportunities to knock them back into the 80 win marker. Two prospects add to the variance and create even more potential negative outcomes. 

I think both players have futures that could be that of MLB starters or better. But with struggles likely, the Cubs need to aim higher and rely on them later in the year when injury strikes...not create whole sale openings for them as they finger cross their way through May hoping that it's just not so bad it sinks the Cubs into a pretty treacherous hole. 

[Bertz]

The team is ~$40M under the cap right now.  Let's assume for the sake of being conservative the plan is to only spend $30M more this offseason to leave deadline money and wiggle room for injuries/bonuses.

If you're paying retail in FA, the remaining items on the to do list cost:

Backup Catcher - $6-8M

Backup IF - $4-5M

RHH Bat - $5M

Closer - $10-12M

So that's that $30M right there without even considering a second SP.  So one of the following must be true:

- The team is planning to address one or more items in trade to provide $ relief

- The team is planning to skimp on or maybe even forego one or two of these items

- There is more money available than we think, whether because a Bellinger trade is coming down the pipe or simply because payroll is actually north of the LT

Gun to my head, they add a SP in arb making something in the $5-10M range, and then skimp on one of those lower cost items.  For example add Jesus Luzardo at $6M and go internally with Canario as your lefty masher.