Soto free agency thread

[Stratos]

How much do you guys think he'll get?

I think he could get 15/450m.

Here's the most expensive contracts to compare: https://theanalyst.com/na/2024/10/the-highest-paid-major-league-baseball-players-and-largest-contracts-in-mlb-history

Trout got 12/426 and Betts got 12/365, both at age 27.  Judge was 9/360 at age 30 (older but a better player).

[Chicago Al]

I think he gets 11/500m. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

Have the Yankees ever lost a free agent they really wanted to keep?

[CubinNY]

This should go in transactions. It has nothing to do with the Cubs. Mods clean up this horsefeathers. 

Edited October 20, 2024 by CubinNY

[thawv]

Spotrac has his market value at 14/514 based on a lot of factors.  If there's 2 or more teams in on him, it will likely be higher than that. 

[Dmac]

9 hours ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

Have the Yankees ever lost a free agent they really wanted to keep?

Cano.  Seattle way overpaid though.  I don't see them losing Soto though, and it will be at least 500. 

[Rcal10]

13 hours ago, Stratos said:

How much do you guys think he'll get?

I think he could get 15/450m.

Here's the most expensive contracts to compare: https://theanalyst.com/na/2024/10/the-highest-paid-major-league-baseball-players-and-largest-contracts-in-mlb-history

Trout got 12/426 and Betts got 12/365, both at age 27.  Judge was 9/360 at age 30 (older but a better player).

I think you are way light on this. If he is getting $450M it would be for 11 years. If he goes 15 years IMO we are talking $550M. Maybe more if teams get into a bidding war. 

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I think you are way light on this. If he is getting $450M it would be for 11 years. If he goes 15 years IMO we are talking $550M. Maybe more if teams get into a bidding war. 

It will be fun to watch, since we won't be participating.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I think you are way light on this. If he is getting $450M it would be for 11 years. If he goes 15 years IMO we are talking $550M. Maybe more if teams get into a bidding war. 

I could see 500m in the upper range.  Can't see him getting an extra 100m for the latter half of his 30s.  My thought is teams will want to lock him up for his career at that money and spread out the luxury tax hit.

Trout got 12/426 in 2019 being 1 year older, and there's some inflation, but Soto also isn't Trout, plus Soto may be a DH in his 30s since his range is already poor and speed is below average.

For as good a hitter as he is i see him as around a 6.5 WAR player at this point in his career and that's going to drop as a DH.  He's also gets a modest bump in his WAR given he typically hits 2nd in the order which helps him rack up extra PAs on the year.  They need a stat to normalize WAR for 150 games and 650 PAs.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I could see 500m in the upper range.  Can't see him getting an extra 100m for the latter half of his 30s.  My thought is teams will want to lock him up for his career at that money and spread out the luxury tax hit.

Trout got 12/426 in 2019 being 1 year older, and there's some inflation, but Soto also isn't Trout, plus Soto may be a DH in his 30s since his range is already poor and speed is below average.

For as good a hitter as he is i see him as around a 6.5 WAR player at this point in his career and that's going to drop as a DH.  He's also gets a modest bump in his WAR given he typically hits 2nd in the order which helps him rack up extra PAs on the year.  They need a stat to normalize WAR for 150 games and 650 PAs.

But Trout got that as an extension. He didn’t go to free agency and have teams bid on him. If he has he probably would have gone over that amount. Soto will get more than $30M a year as an average, no matter how many years he signs for, IMO. Probably closer to $35M. And he will most likely get that average for more than 12 years. Maybe not $550M for 15. That might be too high. But when teams start bidding wars, who knows. 🤷                    

[Bertz]

I think it's more likely his contract starts with a 6 than it does with a 4.  Ohtani "only" got ~$450M in real dollars, but given the wacky deferrals were his idea he clearly valued that structure more than an accountant would.  He also was dead set on LAD from the start and by all indications left some money on the table.

Soto is 4.5 years younger, seems intent on maxing contract value, and doesn't have any complications in terms of health or 6 man rotations or anything like that.

Also teams last winter were able to look ahead to Soto this winter.  There's not another FA in this stratosphere coming coming for a long time unless *maybe* Vlad Jr. has a sufficiently monstrous 2025.

[Rcal10]

43 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think it's more likely his contract starts with a 6 than it does with a 4.  Ohtani "only" got ~$450M in real dollars, but given the wacky deferrals were his idea he clearly valued that structure more than an accountant would.  He also was dead set on LAD from the start and by all indications left some money on the table.

Soto is 4.5 years younger, seems intent on maxing contract value, and doesn't have any complications in terms of health or 6 man rotations or anything like that.

Also teams last winter were able to look ahead to Soto this winter.  There's not another FA in this stratosphere coming coming for a long time unless *maybe* Vlad Jr. has a sufficiently monstrous 2025.

Yesterday, watching him hit that game winning homer, my first thought was 15/$600M. But then when Stratos came in at the 15/$450M he made me reconsider and made me think maybe I was crazy with that amount. I know Stratos is low. I think he could very well get that $600M if a bidding war starts and if there are some creative contract offers with deferred money. I could see a team going that high with deferred money so that his annual comes in around $35M for payroll purposes. Not as egregious as Ohtani, but some sort of creative financing. 
He is a generational talent. And as you said, no one coming down the pipeline like him. So  I telling what happens. I just wish the Cubs would be in on it, no matter the cost. 

Edited October 20, 2024 by Rcal10

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

But Trout got that as an extension. He didn’t go to free agency and have teams bid on him. If he has he probably would have gone over that amount. Soto will get more than $30M a year as an average, no matter how many years he signs for, IMO. Probably closer to $35M. And he will most likely get that average for more than 12 years. Maybe not $550M for 15. That might be too high. But when teams start bidding wars, who knows. 🤷                    

True about Trout.  I think he lands with the Yanks for a gazillion billion dollars.  We probably make a good offer but are a bridesmaid as usual.  If the Yanks don't dump a bank on his doorstep maybe we have a chance. Not getting my hopes up

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

True about Trout.  I think he lands with the Yanks for a gazillion billion dollars.  We probably make a good offer but are a bridesmaid as usual.  If the Yanks don't dump a bank on his doorstep maybe we have a chance. Not getting my hopes up

Oh, I don’t have hope the Cubs will get him. We agree there. And that isn’t even a knock against the FO. No fan base should feel good about their chances of getting Soto. Sure, the usual suspects (Dodgers, Yankees, Mets)probably have a higher chance, but even still it is probably no more than a 25-30% chance for any of those teams. With the Cubs I would put it at 5%. So not getting my hopes up. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Yesterday, watching him hit that game winning homer, my first thought was 15/$600M. But then when Stratos came in at the 15/$450M he made me reconsider and made me think maybe I was crazy with that amount. I know Stratos is low. I think he could very well get that $600M if a bidding war starts and if there are some creative contract offers with deferred money. I could see a team going that high with deferred money so that his annual comes in around $35M for payroll purposes. Not as egregious as Ohtani, but some sort of creative financing. 
He is a generational talent. And as you said, no one coming down the pipeline like him. So  I telling what happens. I just wish the Cubs would be in on it, no matter the cost. 

Ohtani's deal in non-deferred dollars is 10/460.  He's a better player than Soto obviously

Edited October 20, 2024 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

59 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Ohtani's deal in non-deferred dollars is 10/460.  He's a better player than Soto obviously

And with deferrals he got $700M for 10 years. But even using your figure, that is $46M a year. Judge for $40M a year. Why wouldn’t Soto get at least $35M a year? And if they get creative with his contract why couldn’t he get to $600M over 15 years? I feel you are undervaluing just how good Soto is. Honestly it all depends in how many teams are in on him. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Oh, I don’t have hope the Cubs will get him. We agree there. And that isn’t even a knock against the FO. 

But that is absolutely a knock against the front office.  There is no excuse for a large market team like the Cubs with their resources and money available to spend under the luxury tax to not be a serious contender for Soto.  Now, if they make a monster offer and still get outbid by the Yankees, what can you do?  But if the Cubs aren't even in the picture, that is a problem.

[Stratos]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

And with deferrals he got $700M for 10 years. But even using your figure, that is $46M a year. Judge for $40M a year. Why wouldn’t Soto get at least $35M a year? And if they get creative with his contract why couldn’t he get to $600M over 15 years? I feel you are undervaluing just how good Soto is. Honestly it all depends in how many teams are in on him. 

Soto is really good, but also not quite in the same league as Judge and Ohtani.   But he's younger, so it gets complicated.  I don't know how much he'll get.  I don't think 500m is underselling, maybe 450m is on the low side, not sure.  500m would be the biggest deal of all-time and he's not as good as Ohtani or Trout.

What do you think he'll get in non-deferred money so we can keep things simpler and comparable to other players?

I think it'll come down to what teams project from him going forward.  He was only age 25 this year, and was 8 WAR this year, which is quite a bit higher than his norm.  Has he not even peaked yet?  Or was this a career year in a walk year?  He also gets some extra PAs hitting 2nd all year to bump the WAR a bit.

If Yanks gave him 40m AAV for ages 26-33 then 30m AAV for ages 34-39 that's 500m.  So 14/500.

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Soto is really good, but also not quite in the same league as Judge and Ohtani.   But he's younger, so it gets complicated.  I don't know how much he'll get.  I don't think 500m is underselling, maybe 450m is on the low side, not sure.  500m would be the biggest deal of all-time and he's not as good as Ohtani or Trout.

What do you think he'll get in non-deferred money so we can keep things simpler and comparable to other players?

I think it'll come down to what teams project from him going forward.  He was only age 25 this year, and was 8 WAR this year, which is quite a bit higher than his norm.  Has he not even peaked yet?  Or was this a career year in a walk year?  He also gets some extra PAs hitting 2nd all year to bump the WAR a bit.

If Yanks gave him 40m AAV for ages 26-33 then 30m AAV for ages 34-39 that's 500m.  So 14/500.

Straight without deferrals I can see your 14/$500M. Puts the average over $35M a year. That sounds much closer than the $30M average. But like you said, he may be just peaking. 
With some deferred money I can see him getting to !600M, if he so chooses to agree to deferring money. 

[Rex Buckingham]

31 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Soto is really good, but also not quite in the same league as Judge and Ohtani.   But he's younger, so it gets complicated. 

I believe that Soto will prove to be more valuable over the life of his contract than Judge will over his. Judge is so freaking big that it seems likely to me that his body will break down. Also, I don't think Soto is all that far behind Judge in terms of hitting. Definitely when it comes to defensive value, but how long will Judge add that value? 

[Brian707]

On 10/20/2024 at 7:57 AM, CubinNY said:

This should go in transactions. It has nothing to do with the Cubs. Mods clean up this horsefeathers. 

Yeah Soto to the Cubs will never happen, this is a topic best in the General Baseball thread

[thawv]

18 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

And with deferrals he got $700M for 10 years. But even using your figure, that is $46M a year. Judge for $40M a year. Why wouldn’t Soto get at least $35M a year? And if they get creative with his contract why couldn’t he get to $600M over 15 years? I feel you are undervaluing just how good Soto is. Honestly it all depends in how many teams are in on him. 

I look at it a little different, because 97% of it is differed to years 11-20.  I see it more as a contract of 20/700.  The first 10 years he'll be playing, and the 2nd ten years, he'll be retired.  In reality, if they're paying him for 20 years, isn't it a 20 year contract?  To me he's getting 35 million AAV for 20 years.  Even though he's only playing baseball for 10 years. 

Edited October 21, 2024 by thawv

[Petrey10]

If this World Series doesn’t prove to the FO that spending on a star is the right thing then nothing will.

 

we have no excuse not to go all out for Soto.

 

but we won’t and will just say well we tried.

 

 

[Tryptamine]

500M is what people are saying now, but I suspect that will be closer to 600M by the time a contract actually comes to fruition. 

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

If this World Series doesn’t prove to the FO that spending on a star is the right thing then nothing will.

 

we have no excuse not to go all out for Soto.

 

but we won’t and will just say well we tried.

 

 

I don't even think we will say we tried. However, I suspect that even with Boras, he's going to sign quickly with the Yankees and might not even make it to FA. Boras needs some wins.