Bears Week 3 at Colts: Sunday at noon on CBS

[Old Style]

1 minute ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

We don't know his ceiling right now. It's possible, Williams (and Stroud) could be as good as Allen. 

Do you think Josh Allen is the best QB in the league? Curious as to why he is the comparison here. 

[Brian707]

I think the Bears should reach the bye at 3-3.

Rams gotta have a letdown after coming back vs SF

Carolina while looking better with the Red Rifle just beat a bottom 5 team.

Jacksonville in London will be the toughest of the 3 

2 out of 3  is very realistic.  

Edited September 23, 2024 by Brian707

[NorthsideAvenger]

2 hours ago, Old Style said:

Do you think Josh Allen is the best QB in the league? Curious as to why he is the comparison here. 

No but he's top 5 easily. 

Because I was not comfortable with comparing Caleb Williams to Patrick Mahomes (who, imo, is in his own tier). I wanted a QB tier that Caleb could realistically reached as a player. Would you have preferred using Justin Herbert or Joe Burrows as comp? 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

After a day to go back and re-watch things (not beating the hyperfixation demons today i guess):

Non-Caleb Williams stuff:
 

Spoiler

I'm not gonna deny that this loss *stings* when you look at the schedule.  There's a lot of tough games in the second half of the schedule, and if we want even a respectable non-playoff season like 8-9, we need to rack up wins in this part of the schedule.

That's three straight one-score games.  The margin between 0-3 and 3-0 has been razor thin.  Losing by 5 with a missed 2-point conversion, a missed FG, and two possessions dying at the one.

And the fact that they couldn't run the ball against *that* defensive line, oof. It's never going to be easier.  I mean, I guess we did run the ball a *little* better. There were a lot more 3-yard gains than 3-yard losses.

My "how much is the line and how much is Swift" estimation blames Swift more than I did before the game, Johnson looked competent and got a good long look. I assume he'll keep getting an increasing share of the carries as long as he keeps doing it.

Which isn't to excuse the line.  The run blocking still sucks. The pass protection was at least decent for the second time in three games, albeit again that's the easiest matchup they're likely to see for a long while.  But I think if we fed Johnson and moved away from Swift, we could get it to "regular bad" instead of "historically bad" which is enough for me.

I know I'm harping on this, but Tory Taylor had a bad day. He outkicked his coverage and had a borderlne shank.  He's corrently sitting at 40.1 net, which I believe is 21st or 22nd in the NFL.  There's no such thing as a special punter.

The defense was good. IDC, it's defense, who even needs to analyze it.

And obviously, Rome Odunze had himself a day.

Caleb Williams stuff:
 

Spoiler

But I got what I wanted and I'm happy:  Caleb Williams got to chuck the ball all over the field.  Were there some mis-reads? Absolutely.  And I'm beginning to see that he needs a good base to make good deep throws in rhythm, which isn't exactly uncommon even among good QBs.  Just because he can laser it 20 yards on the run doesn't mean he can drop 40-yarders up and down inside muddy pockets.

But holy crap there were so many good reps.  There were more good reps in this game than the pre-season, game 1 and game 2 combined. 

I love seeing "F you, I win" plays on third down from my QB, plays where the defense does everything right and your QB converts it anyway.  We had a decent number of those, but the best must have been in 3rd to Cole Kmet when the defender read the bootleg perfectly and it didn't matter.

Watch it from the back angle at 28:36 of this video and try to come up with the right superlatives:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jn5zHye7deE

Something just clicked for him in the 2nd quarter where he finally had the confidence to start throwing balls into tight windows, which you absolutely must do to be a succesful NFL QB.  His good first half against Houston was all soft throws to open targets, which are nice if you can get them but won't always be there.

There's so many to choose from, but I think my second favorite was found at 2:38 of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4TN1LQ0L8w

In perfect rhythm, looks left? No. Right? Yes.  Quick release, perfectly placed ball 15 yards past the LOS in between three defenders' responsibilties.  There's a lot of passing off receivers in current NFL defenses and you wanna be able to hit guys in that moment they're between the pass-off.

And Williams looked completely willing to direct the offense. He's calling a *lot* of line checks and changing plays.  That early 4th and 1 where he threw a quick hit to DJ Moore? That was a called run where he has the option to alert to Moore if the CB plays off, which he did and Williams did.  (Obviously he's not perfect, we'd have all liked to see a timeout on the infamous sprint option, but it's a learning experience. I have confidence in him to learn).

For what it's worth, he's at 9.9% sack rate this season, while the NFL average is 8.1%.  it's higher than I'd like but not egregoius.

 

[UMFan83]

Re: Taylor - is it possible that a punter, like other positions in the NFL, needs time to acclimate to things?  I wouldn't expect that much acclimation but it is faster, the hash marks are closer, the returners are better, etc.  I dunno just playing devil's advocate, I'm not sure if I even agree with what I'm saying...would have to look at how other top punters have fared their first few weeks in the NFL and I really dont care enough to look it up.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

https://x.com/ButkusStats/status/1838320922023072108?t=ExTOBzkyYY1jxBvoMEEllw
That's supposed to be a Jenkins video, but look at this screenshot from 1:09
 

Spoiler

 

 

Swift ran left on that play instead of right, for a -2 (the LOS is the 31, he literally just has to run into a lineman's butt and fall down for a +1, but he tries to bounce all the way to the outside and gives ground)

I think this is the exact moment my belief in him died.

Edited September 23, 2024 by Hairyducked Idiot

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

3 hours ago, Brian707 said:

I think the Bears should reach the bye at 3-3.

Rams gotta have a letdown after coming back vs SF

Carolina while looking better with the Red Rifle just beat a bottom 5 team.

Jacksonville in London will be the toughest of the 3 

2 out of 3  is very realistic.  

2/3 is the most likely outcome followed closely by 1/3. 

[Derwood]

You know who wasn't as good as Josh Allen?

Rookie year Josh Allen

[UMFan83]

We’re sitting here talking about Caleb’s progress in a 3 turnover loss and Jayden Daniels is out there throwing 30 yard perfectly placed dimes to the corner of the end zone to beat the Bengals on the road

His line: 21-23, 254 yards, 11.0 ypa, 2 TD, 0 INT and 141.7 QB rating with 11 rushes for 40 yards and another TD

damn

[Wilson A2000]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

We’re sitting here talking about Caleb’s progress in a 3 turnover loss and Jayden Daniels is out there throwing 30 yard perfectly placed dimes to the corner of the end zone to beat the Bengals on the road

His line: 21-23, 254 yards, 11.0 ypa, 2 TD, 0 INT and 141.7 QB rating with 11 rushes for 40 yards and another TD

damn

Bears picked the wrong guy again

[Brian707]

15 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Bears picked the wrong guy again

Too early to tell. Daniels has a good offensive line. Also Bengals d looks bad. Not that the Colts were much better 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

35 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

We’re sitting here talking about Caleb’s progress in a 3 turnover loss and Jayden Daniels is out there throwing 30 yard perfectly placed dimes to the corner of the end zone to beat the Bengals on the road

His line: 21-23, 254 yards, 11.0 ypa, 2 TD, 0 INT and 141.7 QB rating with 11 rushes for 40 yards and another TD

damn

He looked good.  I don't regret the pick in the slightest 

[UMFan83]

6 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

He looked good.  I don't regret the pick in the slightest 

Well yeah it would be pretty ridiculous to regret the pick 3 games into the season.  But I can't say it doesn't bother me a little to see him blow up like that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Well yeah it would be pretty ridiculous to regret the pick 3 games into the season.  But I can't say it doesn't bother me a little to see him blow up like that.

You could watch video of our guy blowing up. It's barely 30 hours old 

[BigbadB]

8 hours ago, Brian707 said:

Too early to tell. Daniels has a good offensive line. Also Bengals d looks bad. Not that the Colts were much better 

Bengals D actually stopped the run, pretty good. Daniels got a lot of his 39 yards via unopen receivers and taking off running. He still only managed 3.3 YPC. Their bell cow, Brian Robinson had 33 on 16 carries for a 2.1 YPC. Ekeler is mostly a receiver, and Washington did a good job in letting him run a few times, and I think that surprised the Cincy defense, as Ekeler ended up with 3 carries for 35 yards. Daniels was throwing dimes all night. He caught McLaurin behind his defender twice for TD's and actually had a 3rd that was a touch too close to the sideline, or it could have been 3. 

With that said, it's almost as if Cincy was playing a similar defense to Indy this week by forcing the QB to throw, and the Bears did everything but put points on the board, and Washington did exactly that.

Someone is going to break Daniels ankle or twist his knee badly enough to cause him to miss considerable time. He runs too much and he's just tiny from the waste down. 6'4" and 210 and a runner is not good for this league. But, he did have a great game against Cincy. Outside of McLaurin, I'm not impressed with his receiver crew, and I'm shocked they traded Dotson before the season started. But that didn't stop Daniels. 

 

[raw]

Daniels was pressured 4 times all game. Caleb gets pressured 4x per pass

[Old Style]

11 minutes ago, raw said:

Daniels was pressured 4 times all game. Caleb gets pressured 4x per pass

His best pass of the night he was destroyed as he let it go. He saw the pressure coming right at him and still dropped a dime in the corner of the end zone. 

[gflore34]

13 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

After a day to go back and re-watch things (not beating the hyperfixation demons today i guess):

Non-Caleb Williams stuff:
 

  Hide contents

I'm not gonna deny that this loss *stings* when you look at the schedule.  There's a lot of tough games in the second half of the schedule, and if we want even a respectable non-playoff season like 8-9, we need to rack up wins in this part of the schedule.

That's three straight one-score games.  The margin between 0-3 and 3-0 has been razor thin.  Losing by 5 with a missed 2-point conversion, a missed FG, and two possessions dying at the one.

And the fact that they couldn't run the ball against *that* defensive line, oof. It's never going to be easier.  I mean, I guess we did run the ball a *little* better. There were a lot more 3-yard gains than 3-yard losses.

My "how much is the line and how much is Swift" estimation blames Swift more than I did before the game, Johnson looked competent and got a good long look. I assume he'll keep getting an increasing share of the carries as long as he keeps doing it.

Which isn't to excuse the line.  The run blocking still sucks. The pass protection was at least decent for the second time in three games, albeit again that's the easiest matchup they're likely to see for a long while.  But I think if we fed Johnson and moved away from Swift, we could get it to "regular bad" instead of "historically bad" which is enough for me.

I know I'm harping on this, but Tory Taylor had a bad day. He outkicked his coverage and had a borderlne shank.  He's corrently sitting at 40.1 net, which I believe is 21st or 22nd in the NFL.  There's no such thing as a special punter.

The defense was good. IDC, it's defense, who even needs to analyze it.

And obviously, Rome Odunze had himself a day.

Caleb Williams stuff:
 

  Hide contents

But I got what I wanted and I'm happy:  Caleb Williams got to chuck the ball all over the field.  Were there some mis-reads? Absolutely.  And I'm beginning to see that he needs a good base to make good deep throws in rhythm, which isn't exactly uncommon even among good QBs.  Just because he can laser it 20 yards on the run doesn't mean he can drop 40-yarders up and down inside muddy pockets.

But holy crap there were so many good reps.  There were more good reps in this game than the pre-season, game 1 and game 2 combined. 

I love seeing "F you, I win" plays on third down from my QB, plays where the defense does everything right and your QB converts it anyway.  We had a decent number of those, but the best must have been in 3rd to Cole Kmet when the defender read the bootleg perfectly and it didn't matter.

Watch it from the back angle at 28:36 of this video and try to come up with the right superlatives:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jn5zHye7deE

Something just clicked for him in the 2nd quarter where he finally had the confidence to start throwing balls into tight windows, which you absolutely must do to be a succesful NFL QB.  His good first half against Houston was all soft throws to open targets, which are nice if you can get them but won't always be there.

There's so many to choose from, but I think my second favorite was found at 2:38 of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4TN1LQ0L8w

In perfect rhythm, looks left? No. Right? Yes.  Quick release, perfectly placed ball 15 yards past the LOS in between three defenders' responsibilties.  There's a lot of passing off receivers in current NFL defenses and you wanna be able to hit guys in that moment they're between the pass-off.

And Williams looked completely willing to direct the offense. He's calling a *lot* of line checks and changing plays.  That early 4th and 1 where he threw a quick hit to DJ Moore? That was a called run where he has the option to alert to Moore if the CB plays off, which he did and Williams did.  (Obviously he's not perfect, we'd have all liked to see a timeout on the infamous sprint option, but it's a learning experience. I have confidence in him to learn).

For what it's worth, he's at 9.9% sack rate this season, while the NFL average is 8.1%.  it's higher than I'd like but not egregoius.

 

is accurate to say we're seeing things from Caleb we never saw from Mitch or Justin? And, despite all the bad play from the line and bad play calling, it's only a matter of time before things start to click for Caleb and the Bears?

[Wilson A2000]

8 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

is accurate to say we're seeing things from Caleb we never saw from Mitch or Justin? And, despite all the bad play from the line and bad play calling, it's only a matter of time before things start to click for Caleb and the Bears?

It’s never just a matter of time. QBing in the NFL is very difficult.

[Derwood]

33 minutes ago, Old Style said:

His best pass of the night he was destroyed as he let it go. He saw the pressure coming right at him and still dropped a dime in the corner of the end zone. 

Once could say that because he had been given time on his passes all night that he felt comfortable making that pass, whereas Caleb (and Fields before him) took every snap expecting to get wrecked

[gflore34]

16 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

It’s never just a matter of time. QBing in the NFL is very difficult.

Yes, however, you can't watch the film break down without coming away with the thought there's something good there, plenty of times we had squint really hard to come away with a positive note on break downs of Fields.

Edited September 24, 2024 by gflore34

[Wilson A2000]

7 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Yes, however, you can't watch the film break down without coming away with the thought there's something good there, plenty of times we had squint really hard to come away with a positive note on break downs of Fields.

I agree, Caleb is looking better each game despite a bad line and an OC who is doing him no favors. But it’s certainly not a given that Caleb becomes a star.

[mul21]

Daniels had clean pockets all night long and to raw's point, was very rarely pressured.  Especially for a rookie QB, not feeling rushed every time you drop back when things are already going faster than you're accustomed to is a huge difference compared to what Caleb has dealt with.  That said, Daniels did look really good.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, raw said:

Daniels was pressured 4 times all game. Caleb gets pressured 4x per pass

Williams was pressured on 13 of 52 attempts on Sunday.

Not quite as good as only 4, but that's the second time in 3 games he's been pressured at a below average rate 

[gflore34]

42 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Williams was pressured on 13 of 52 attempts on Sunday.

Not quite as good as only 4, but that's the second time in 3 games he's been pressured at a below average rate 

Yeah, don't get this narrative Caleb' under constant pressure, yes, there are times but, watch the film, it's not true.

Edited September 24, 2024 by gflore34