Tigers (TBD) vs Cubs (Taillon): 8/21/24, 7:05pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

[Bertz]

I was looking at upcoming pitching matchups on Roster Resource, it looks like things have lined up for us to get Jones/Skenes/Keller in both upcoming Pirates series.  We're obviously missing Skubal here against Detroit and look poised to miss Gore against Wash but dear lord the Pirates we are getting are not the Pirates the rest of the league is getting.

[BKHoo]

Well might as well sweep them then. 

[Tryptamine]

Not that I think the Cubs are particularly good, but man the Arizona series coming out of the break and that recent Cleveland series are the 2 I come back to that really put this team in dire straits as far as any realistic chance of making a push goes. As bad as this season has been, they're realistically only about 2 or 3 reversed outcomes from being very much in contention for the WC.

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Not that I think the Cubs are particularly good, but man the Arizona series coming out of the break and that recent Cleveland series are the 2 I come back to that really put this team in dire straits as far as any realistic chance of making a push goes. As bad as this season has been, they're realistically only about 2 or 3 reversed outcomes from being very much in contention for the WC.

In fairness, this team won a handful of games they had no business winning against earlier in the season (a handful of games against St. Louis come to mind), and they've had a few low scoring affairs that actually went their way.

This team has had its share of bad luck, but the difference has been a first half with a trash bullpen and the offense pretty much slumping all at the same time.  It sucks, because it seems like they're getting their horsefeathers together too late to make a meaningful difference.

[Rcal10]

44 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

In fairness, this team won a handful of games they had no business winning against earlier in the season (a handful of games against St. Louis come to mind), and they've had a few low scoring affairs that actually went their way.

This team has had its share of bad luck, but the difference has been a first half with a trash bullpen and the offense pretty much slumping all at the same time.  It sucks, because it seems like they're getting their horsefeathers together too late to make a meaningful difference.

What handful of games come to mind that the Acuna won early against St.l? They won 6 of 13 and 3 of them were on the last homestand, where they should have swept. What 3 games before then did they win that they shouldn’t have. 3 is also not a handful. They definitely blew way more games they should have won then won games they should have lost. 

[Bull]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Not that I think the Cubs are particularly good, but man the Arizona series coming out of the break and that recent Cleveland series are the 2 I come back to that really put this team in dire straits as far as any realistic chance of making a push goes. As bad as this season has been, they're realistically only about 2 or 3 reversed outcomes from being very much in contention for the WC.

They have the third most ninth inning blown leads behind the rockies and the d-backs.

Said a different way: acquiring an elite closer should be the number one priority this offseason.

Said a different way: the problem with this team was Adbert playing through being broken and Hector Neris playing through being.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Bull said:

They have the third most ninth inning blown leads behind the rockies and the d-backs.

Said a different way: acquiring an elite closer should be the number one priority this offseason.

Said a different way: the problem with this team was Adbert playing through being broken and Hector Neris playing through being.

I highly doubt they acquire an elite closer. They aren’t going to spend that money, and they might already have one with one of their young arms. I do agree with you that had Adbert not been broken and pitched as he was expected to pitch the Cubs would be fighting for the division and almost a lock as a wild card team. 

[Bertz]

This is a good winter to acquire a good closer without having to do anything silly like the Josh Hader contract.  Kenley Jansen, Ryan Pressly, and David Robertson are all still very good but old enough to make 3+ year commitments unnecessary.

Rumor in the Athletic last winter was Jed was willing to go outside of his comfort zone to get Counsell a closer he could lean on.  I think something like 2/$36M to Kenley Jansen feels very realistic even knowing Jed's feelings on paying big money for relief help.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This is a good winter to acquire a good closer without having to do anything silly like the Josh Hader contract.  Kenley Jansen, Ryan Pressly, and David Robertson are all still very good but old enough to make 3+ year commitments unnecessary.

Rumor in the Athletic last winter was Jed was willing to go outside of his comfort zone to get Counsell a closer he could lean on.  I think something like 2/$36M to Kenley Jansen feels very realistic even knowing Jed's feelings on paying big money for relief help.

I will believe it when I see it. And I wouldn’t consider Jensen elite anyway. None of the guys you mentioned are elite to me. I also understand that’s kind of what you are saying. There is no Hader. But I would rather them develop the guy they have closing next year, then spend $18M for a guy near the end of his career. If yiu could get Robertson for something like $8M for 1 years, maybe. But I would hate to see so much annual salary go to an aging pen arm, closer or not. No interest in Pressly. His WHIP is pretty close to Neris’. 

Edited August 21, 2024 by Rcal10

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 of the Top 11 relievers in fWAR are FA to be, 3 of them are young enough to potentially get a 3+ year deal for serious money(Holmes, Hoffman, Strahm), and 3 of them are not(Jensen, Robertson, Yates).  There's also a few guys who have been good closers who are not quite in that elite FIP grouping hitting FA(Scott, Estevez) so I think it's fair to say it should be a pretty robust market.

In addition to the FA market though, I wonder if we see a more modern twist on the Wade Davis deal, and see a trade for a reliever near FA.  You give up some currency to do it but you also lose the multi-year downside that we've seen exists even with guys getting higher end reliever deals(hint: the Cubs just released one).  Fairbanks, Kopech, Helsley, Kimbrel, and Iglesias are all names that would qualify, probably others that my 60 seconds of Fangraphs searching left behind.

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

6 of the Top 11 relievers in fWAR are FA to be, 3 of them are young enough to potentially get a 3+ year deal for serious money(Holmes, Hoffman, Strahm), and 3 of them are not(Jensen, Robertson, Yates).  There's also a few guys who have been good closers who are not quite in that elite FIP grouping hitting FA(Scott, Estevez) so I think it's fair to say it should be a pretty robust market.

In addition to the FA market though, I wonder if we see a more modern twist on the Wade Davis deal, and see a trade for a reliever near FA.  You give up some currency to do it but you also lose the multi-year downside that we've seen exists even with guys getting higher end reliever deals(hint: the Cubs just released one).  Fairbanks, Kopech, Helsley, Kimbrel, and Iglesias are all names that would qualify, probably others that my 60 seconds of Fangraphs searching left behind.

Clase. I don’t think they will do it, but if we are talking trading for a pen arm, why not aim higher. But if the group you mentioned in trade, Fairbanks appears to be someone who will be traded. He might fit. 

Edited August 21, 2024 by Rcal10

[UMFan83]

2 hours ago, Bull said:

They have the third most ninth inning blown leads behind the rockies and the d-backs.

Said a different way: acquiring an elite closer should be the number one priority this offseason.

Said a different way: the problem with this team was Adbert playing through being broken and Hector Neris playing through being.

Also the most 1 run losses in MLB (though have also played the most 1 run games overall). 

That said, offense is as big of a reason for that as bullpen, if not bigger.  The Cubs didn't hit for basically 2.5 months.  Way too many games the Cubs could have pulled away in but didn't causing the pen to eventually blow it.

Fixing the offense is the number 1 offseason priority for me, ideally by finding a way to acquire a star middle of the order bat.  Easier said than done but if they can't find a way to do that, their ceiling is always going to be limited IMO.

[Eeyore]

I know that a pitcher is a starter until he isn't, but I'd like to see Ben Brown get a chance at closer if they can sew his arm back on 

[WhyCantWeWin]

31 minutes ago, Eeyore said:

I know that a pitcher is a starter until he isn't, but I'd like to see Ben Brown get a chance at closer if they can sew his arm back on 

You mean his neck

[Eeyore]

19 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

You mean his neck

Forgot about that. He ded

[Bertz]

51 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Also the most 1 run losses in MLB (though have also played the most 1 run games overall). 

That said, offense is as big of a reason for that as bullpen, if not bigger.  The Cubs didn't hit for basically 2.5 months.  Way too many games the Cubs could have pulled away in but didn't causing the pen to eventually blow it.

Fixing the offense is the number 1 offseason priority for me, ideally by finding a way to acquire a star middle of the order bat.  Easier said than done but if they can't find a way to do that, their ceiling is always going to be limited IMO.

It requires keeping Suzuki in the field, but I've been looking A LOT at Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker from Oakland.  They're likely going to combine for 60+ dongs this year while playing half their games in cavernous Oakland, and they're both still cheap (Shea's pre arb while Rooker is entering Arb 1) so Jed would be able to throw most of his available cash at patching up the pitching staff sith FAs.

[CubinNY]

Wrigley is empty 

[Cubbies1996]

Anndddd he gives up a homer to the struggling rookie

[JHBulls]

Oh look, Suckeson is back. 

[Derwood]

His control is pretty pretty pretty bad tonight

[profisme]

Gotta get him out of the game if there is to be any hope of getting back into it. He looks like dog trash tonight. 

[CubinNY]

Jamo out of gas to end the season 

[Cubbies1996]

Good lord Taillon 😑

[Cubbies1996]

He just goes through unexplainable stretches where he leaves the ball over the middle of the plate where a team in the LLWS could even tee off him. So weird.