Jed: Cubs expected to be over the luxury tax THIS year

[Bertz]

4 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Just noticed they can subtract another 26 mil off that payroll just by not picking up options on Bote, Smyly,  and Neris and that'll get them approximately 157 mil under the TT going into the offseason.

While this conversation shows they're not treating the LT as a hard line, if we do treat it as one just for the sake of having a firm number to work towards there is $45M to spend this offseason if Bellinger opts in and $70M if he opts out.  That accounts for arbitration salaries, player benefits, etc.

[Stratos]

On 8/15/2024 at 8:54 PM, Irrelevant Dude said:

The buyout comes into play if he opts out.  But it's only $2.5M this year.  $5M if he opts out after next year.

Was there another buyout previously and owed this year?  Boxberger is also owed 800k this year on a buyout.

Edited August 17, 2024 by Stratos

[JHBulls]

Cody Bellinger…

[CubinNY]

The Phillies have long spent money to make money. That's managing partner John Middleton's philosophy.

"It may be a privately-held business that we own, but it’s not a private organization. It’s a very public organization. It’s a stewardship."

🔗 MLBThreads 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5706000/2024/08/19/john-middleton-phillies-playoffs/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=threads&source=threadshq
 

F U C K the Ricketts and all like them. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

I am increasingly of the mindset that it is Juan Soto or bust in order to fix this team, and the choice is almost certainly going to be bust.

I just can't really see a scenario where the Cubs swap a few expendable pieces around and magically become a legitimate contender.  Bellinger could be off the books, that's great.  But can they actually find a better non-Soto hitter to replace him?

The Cubs have accumulated quality depth at AAA, so now let's USE IT.  One thing that depth can do for them is enable them to make a huge financial commitment to Soto, locking up that cornerstone star player, then save money by filling in some of the peripheral roster spots with cheap minor leaguers rather than spending on veteran free agents.  Save some money on guys at the end of the bench and use that where it actually matters by signing a true superstar player instead of spreading the money around on decent players and simultaneously blocking all the AAA talent.

Yes, I realize there are other ways to go about roster building.  Maybe the Cubs will take a completely different approach and make several significant trades in the offseason to compeltely revamp the roster.  That is also an acceptable attempt at fixing this mess.  What isn't acceptable is simply replacing Bellinger and a few pitchers with comparable players and expecting things to turn out differently, which is exactly what I expect Hoyer to do...

[LBiittner]

40 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I am increasingly of the mindset that it is Juan Soto or bust in order to fix this team, and the choice is almost certainly going to be bust.

I just can't really see a scenario where the Cubs swap a few expendable pieces around and magically become a legitimate contender.  Bellinger could be off the books, that's great.  But can they actually find a better non-Soto hitter to replace him?

The Cubs have accumulated quality depth at AAA, so now let's USE IT.  One thing that depth can do for them is enable them to make a huge financial commitment to Soto, locking up that cornerstone star player, then save money by filling in some of the peripheral roster spots with cheap minor leaguers rather than spending on veteran free agents.  Save some money on guys at the end of the bench and use that where it actually matters by signing a true superstar player instead of spreading the money around on decent players and simultaneously blocking all the AAA talent.

Yes, I realize there are other ways to go about roster building.  Maybe the Cubs will take a completely different approach and make several significant trades in the offseason to compeltely revamp the roster.  That is also an acceptable attempt at fixing this mess.  What isn't acceptable is simply replacing Bellinger and a few pitchers with comparable players and expecting things to turn out differently, which is exactly what I expect Hoyer to do...

Levine was saying he thinks jeds going after Corbin burnes and won't pursue soto. 

 

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Levine was saying he thinks jeds going after Corbin burnes and won't pursue soto. 

 

I doubt he even does that much, TBH.

[UMFan83]

4 hours ago, CubinNY said:

The Phillies have long spent money to make money. That's managing partner John Middleton's philosophy.

"It may be a privately-held business that we own, but it’s not a private organization. It’s a very public organization. It’s a stewardship."

🔗 MLBThreads 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5706000/2024/08/19/john-middleton-phillies-playoffs/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=threads&source=threadshq
 

F U C K the Ricketts and all like them. 

Yep....this is exactly how a professional sports team should be viewed, but obviously these rich horsefeathers owners only care about making the most money possible with the least amount of risk.   horsefeathers the Ricketts and horsefeathers Reinsdorf.  Probably McCaskey and Wirtz too but they at least pretend they aren't greedy horsefeatherss (some of the time).  

 

[NorthsideAvenger]

3 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I am increasingly of the mindset that it is Juan Soto or bust in order to fix this team, and the choice is almost certainly going to be bust.

I think most Cubs fans agree with this but have zero faith that Jed can pull off Juan Soto, especially if the Dodgers and Yankees are involved. Dodgers getting Soto the off-season after getting Ohtani would be so annoying. 

[Bertz]

Even if you guaranteed me Jed was going to sign a 9 figure contract this winter, I would bet *heavily* against it being Corbin Burnes.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Dodgers getting Soto the off-season after getting Ohtani would be so annoying. 

And somehow still having a lower payroll than the Cubs.

[NorthsideAvenger]

10 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

And somehow still having a lower payroll than the Cubs.

That's because one organization employs creative minds the other has Jed Hoyer. 

Edited August 20, 2024 by NorthsideAvenger

[mul21]

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

Even if you guaranteed me Jed was going to sign a 9 figure contract this winter, I would bet *heavily* against it being Corbin Burnes.

Isn't his velocity down noticeably this year?  Feels like it would be a bad investment regardless.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

9 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

And somehow still having a lower payroll than the Cubs.

Still?  The Dodgers are outspending the Cubs by about 100 million this year on an LT basis.  Do people think the Dodgers have a similar or even lower payroll than the Cubs or other teams at large?  Because the only team in the NL within 60 million of the Dodgers are the Mets, and that's partially because they're paying Scherzer and Verlander to play on other teams.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Still?  The Dodgers are outspending the Cubs by about 100 million this year on an LT basis.  Do people think the Dodgers have a similar or even lower payroll than the Cubs or other teams at large?  Because the only team in the NL within 60 million of the Dodgers are the Mets, and that's partially because they're paying Scherzer and Verlander to play on other teams.

Wrong it's actually because Jed Hoyer is stupid and doesn't have creativity. 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, mul21 said:

Isn't his velocity down noticeably this year?  Feels like it would be a bad investment regardless.

Velo is actually fine, but yeah everything else about him is in pretty clear decline.  And he's played his last two seasons with the Brewers and Orioles so it's not likely there's some trick to turn back the clock.

Like he's still very good, but he's more Justin Steele than Cy Young.  Doesn't feel very Jed, so I'd be pretty shocked if he's the guy they finally backed up the Brinks truck for.

[Brian707]

On 8/15/2024 at 8:05 PM, chibears55 said:

there zero reasons why Hoyer shouldn't be going hard after Soto and or Burnes .

[Rcal10]

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

Even if you guaranteed me Jed was going to sign a 9 figure contract this winter, I would bet *heavily* against it being Corbin Burnes.

Well it won’t be Soto either. I agree they won’t get Burnes. But no Burnes and no Soto means NO 9 figure contracts, IMO. I wouldn’t give Alonso 9 figures and I don’t think another pitcher will get 9 figures. So basically it is almost a guarantee the Cubs will not sign a 9 figure contract. 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Well that is a big reason. I agree. 

[Rcal10]

Does releasing Neris give the Cubs a chance at being under the LT? Would a team pick him up now and pay the prorated portion of his contract the rest of the year? That would be over $2M, right? If he passes through unclaimed the savings is less. Someone might do it so that someone lower in the standings doesn’t get him once he clears. Maybe???? I can hope! 🤷

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Does releasing Neris give the Cubs a chance at being under the LT? Would a team pick him up now and pay the prorated portion of his contract the rest of the year? That would be over $2M, right? If he passes through unclaimed the savings is less. Someone might do it so that someone lower in the standings doesn’t get him once he clears. Maybe???? I can hope! 🤷

No, he would have had to have been claimed off waivers.  If he signs somewhere they pay the prorated portion of league minimum for the rest of the year, so the Cubs get maybe $150K of relief at best.

[gflore34]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Well it won’t be Soto either. I agree they won’t get Burnes. But no Burnes and no Soto means NO 9 figure contracts, IMO. I wouldn’t give Alonso 9 figures and I don’t think another pitcher will get 9 figures. So basically it is almost a guarantee the Cubs will not sign a 9 figure contract. 

Beyond a doubt, it's going to be middle-tier FA's and hope they, like the Guardians and Brewers this season, catch lightning in a bottle.

[squally1313]

It's so tiring how Hoyer has missed out on like...maybe 3 large (>$100m) free agents that we wouldn't have regretted since he took over but people here just assume there are these self-imposed restrictions in place and then use these (made up) rules as justification to make the same criticisms over and over again. There were 4 contracts over $100m last offseason. We were never getting Ohtani, Yamamoto has been hurt multiple times and hasn't thrown a pitch in 2 months, Nola resigned and Jung Hoo Lee is out for the year and might also suck. It's basically just retroactively wishing we would have signed Seager or Semien 3 months after going through a total sell off. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

He is "the cubs", so zero reasons why he shouldn't be going after these guys

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Does releasing Neris give the Cubs a chance at being under the LT? Would a team pick him up now and pay the prorated portion of his contract the rest of the year? That would be over $2M, right? If he passes through unclaimed the savings is less. Someone might do it so that someone lower in the standings doesn’t get him once he clears. Maybe???? I can hope! 🤷

A contending team will likely claim him, even if he's going to be just used as a 7th/8th inning guy.