Cubs Trading for Isaac Paredes?!

[JBears79]

Have to imagine Nico's days here are numbered as well.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, JBears79 said:

Have to imagine Nico's days here are numbered as well.

I still think it's probably 20% or less that he's moved, but the odds definitely climbed up a bit today.

[Cuzi]

I have questions about how well Paredes will be in Wrigley, but this is just a no brainer.

3 years of Paredes for 4 years of Morel and a couple of meh prospects. Where do I sign?

Morel had no place in this roster since he could not play 3B and his bat wasn't the best option at DH going forward. He was so bad this year I was wondering if he could even pull a name like Paredes. So this is kind of shocking to me. Rays must really believe they have to key to unlock him at 2B.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Basically from what I'm reading Statcast ignores batted ball direction when calculating xOBA, so it treats a ceter/oppo fly ball (which are much worse batted ball types) the same as a pulled fly ball (the best batted ball type).  Thus, extreme pull hitters are much more likely to outperform their xOBA because a majority of their fly balls are pulled.   

Some other heavy pulled ball hitters are guys like Jose Ramirez and Marcus Semien, 2 guys who also outperform their xOBA more often than not.

I could be regurgitating this information wrong, feel free to pick apart.

No this is exactly right.  And Paredes is the posterboy for this cheat/hack along with yeah Ramirez, Semien, and Bellinger.  Others might have it but don't have the track record to definitively call it a skill.

Wrigley's long lines like Stratos pointed out will hurt.  The wind feels TBD, I wouldn't be surprised if the instances of the wind blowing out help more than the instances of the wind blowing in hurt.  The wind blowing in kills everyone, the wind blowing out disproportionately helps guys who just get it up in the air.

[Stratos]

11 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

I love Morel and this hurts. Am going to miss his energy and personality. But this is a trade you make 10 times out of 10. Johnson is whatever and Bigge is replaceable. And Paredes is controlled for several seasons. I hated trading Paredes in the first place. That was a bad trade then. 

As a positive, since Parades was originally a Cub I assume they aren't ignorant on his unusual power profile and seemingly poor raw power.

He may not continue the 130 wRC+at Wrigley but hopefully he still puts up solid power #'s.  He walks, doesn't chase, and puts the ball in play which is nice.

On pace for over 4 WAR this season again.  A bit shocking we were able to land him for what we gave up.

[Stratos]

Last guy in the deal from the Cubs is SP Ty Johnson, who has had a good year for the Cubs and put up some nice stats beyond the ERA, wonder if we're sleeping on him a bit?

[Stratos]

From:  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/cubs-acquire-isaac-paredes.html

Quote

The right-handed hitting Paredes could also spell Michael Busch (a lefty-swinger) at first base when a tough southpaw is on the mound, and Paredes also has a good deal of experience at second base, even though the Rays have used him only in the corner infield spots in 2024.  On paper, however, the Cubs already have their 2025 starting infield set, with Paredes at third base, Busch at first, Nico Hoerner at second base, and Dansby Swanson at shortstop.

 

[muntjack]

Morel was my favorite cub.  I'm still very bullish on his future. Think he becomes a passable defense somewhere on the field,  and the bat is going to get louder.  It is hard to dislike this trade,  but I'm close.   

I will say,  those who went on ad nauseum about Christopher having 0 trade value might want to take some time to reflect. 

[KCCub]

 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, KCCub said:

 

While I do agree this feels an underpay, BBTV also thinks that Crochet is almost twice as valuable as Justin Steele and Justin has an extra year under team control.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, KCCub said:

 

I generally dislike BBTV. 

But if it thinks we ripped off the Rays, it's greatest thing I've seen.

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I generally dislike BBTV. 

But if it thinks we ripped off the Rays, it's greatest thing I've seen.

I think the whole "Rays never get ripped off and are smarter than everyone else" is a little overblown, but I do think its fair to wonder if there's something they're seeing that most don't when it appears that they've been ripped off in a trade.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I think the whole "Rays never get ripped off and are smarter than everyone else" is a little overblown, but I do think its fair to wonder if there's something they're seeing that most don't when it appears that they've been ripped off in a trade.

Oh yeah, the Rays *can* lose trades. But they're also among the best, if not the best, when it comes to player evaluations. When you feel like you've fleeced the Rays is exactly when you should wonder what you're not seeing.

In all honesty, I like this trade from both sides. The Cubs get a 3b they need, maintained their prospect depth by dealing BP arms and gave up from positions of strength (DH). The Rays have a top-prospect they love at 3b, so losing a 3b is bearable, while also getting  back a hitter the underlying data loves and a couple of risky, but upside-BP arms. 

I think both teams win here. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

It helps to be nearly half a decade younger with say 6 more MPH on the avg fastball and a fresher TJ probably 

 

He has also only been a starter for 3 months has a very significant injury history. If you had them kind of comparable I'd get it, but having one worth literally near double the other is idiocy.

[UMFan83]

So glad we're getting rid of Morel, look at how bad he's been since June 1st:  .189/.318/.360/.678

And even worse since July 5th: .100/.299/.233/.532

Oh crap wait, nevermind those are Parades' numbers 🤯

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

So glad we're getting rid of Morel, look at how bad he's been since June 1st:  .189/.318/.360/.678

And even worse since July 5th: .100/.299/.233/.532

Oh crap wait, nevermind those are Parades' numbers 🤯

On a .197 babip, he still posted a 102 wRC+ since June 1st. His LD/FB/GB% are all pretty similar to 2023, but his quality of contact is down a bit which is something to watch. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

From:  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/cubs-acquire-isaac-paredes.html

 

I agree with this. I don’t think this makes Nico more likely to get traded. I think Jed jumped the off-season trade market and has his infield set for next year. They still need to find some slugging though. Now especially. 

[Bull]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

I think the whole "Rays never get ripped off and are smarter than everyone else" is a little overblown, but I do think its fair to wonder if there's something they're seeing that most don't when it appears that they've been ripped off in a trade.

This. And what I think they are missing is an obvious fix to Morel at the plate. The fact that the Rays are willing to make this trade is evidence that Kelly and Mallee should be fired.

[UMFan83]

For those that don't have The Athletic (I only have it for another week or so 😭), here is what they say about the trade:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5664438/2024/07/28/mlb-trade-grades-isaac-paredes-rays-cubs/

Quote

Andy McCullough: Perhaps you’ve heard the news. The Rays are open for business. Tampa Bay has been shedding big-league talent at a rapid rate, taking advantage of a seller’s market at a time when several clubs with limited postseason potential are standing still. The team has already dealt away outfielder Randy Arozarena, starter Zach Eflin and reliever Jason Adam, after moving pitchers Aaron Civale and Phil Maton earlier this month. The return for Paredes, a 25-year-old All-Star third baseman who won’t be a free agent until 2028, looks a bit lighter than expected.

 

Paredes was rated as the third-best player available on The Athletic’s deadline big board. It appears the industry took a dimmer view of his future than our intrepid duo of Tim Britton and Aaron Gleeman. He is in the midst of a tremendous slump, batting only .127 in July. Tampa Bay must feel that Morel can replicate Paredes’ production, while appreciating the opportunity inherent in the acquisition of Bigge and Johnson.

Morel is having a down year offensively; his OPS+ has sagged from 119 in 2023 to 90 this season. He is a few months older than Paredes but under team control for an additional season. He has excellent bat speed and good patience, which are qualities that suggest there is more in his offensive tank. Bigge wields a 98-mph fastball and a heavy slider that has allowed him to accumulate strikeouts as he crawled up the developmental ladder. He can join the big-league bullpen and help replace Adam. Johnson may also end up as a reliever.

The Cubs got better. There is no question about that. The Rays placed yet another wager on the capability of their scouting and development staff. They took an All-Star and swapped him for a player with less success at the same position. Will that, plus a pair of lottery-ticket arms, be a success? It’s the type of move Tampa Bay has made, time after time, in recent years. On the surface, it makes you scratch your head. But so did their decision to trade former All-Star outfielder Austin Meadows in 2022.

The player Tampa Bay got in return? He’s on the Cubs now.

Rays: B-
Cubs: B

 

Quote

Sam Blum: This is a bit of an odd trade for the Cubs, at least on the surface. They’re in last place in the National League Central, and have a 5.1 percent chance of making the playoffs in 2024, according to FanGraphs.

This trade, however, likely has little to do with either the Cubs’ or the Rays’ mostly-sealed fates this year. And it doesn’t mean that Chicago is a buyer, or that they’re making decisions with a playoff push in mind.

The more legitimate concern is just how much power Paredes will have at Wrigley Field. He has famously never hit a home run to right field in any ballpark. Paredes has 16 homers this year, but Baseball Savant said that he would only have 11 homers this year if he played all his games in Chicago. That makes Wrigley one of the least compatible ballparks for his power.

 

Paredes does have three additional years of control, and does offer more offensive value beyond his power numbers. He’s one of the best young third basemen in the sport.

Christopher Morel still hasn’t hit arbitration, but he has regressed offensively in 2024. His 90 OPS+ plus is below league average, though there are some encouraging trend lines with his walks elevating and strikeouts decreasing.

Hunter Bigge is a very hard-thrower, who could theoretically slot into the Rays bullpen immediately. His fastball averaged nearly 98 miles per hour in his brief stint with the Cubs this year. Ty Johnson is also a hard thrower, but will be lower in the Rays system.

Basically, the Cubs are getting the best player. But the Rays are getting three guys, all of whom have potential. There’s no better team at capitalizing on potential than Tampa Bay, and it wouldn’t be shocking if they believe Morel could exceed what they lost in Paredes.

Rays: B-
Cubs: B-

Quote

Tyler Kepner: The Cubs have underachieved this season, largely because they lack impact players in their lineup. Swapping Christopher Morel for Isaac Paredes is just the kind of move they needed. They’re both 25-year-old right-handed hitters with defensive versatility, but Paredes is much better at getting on base than Morel and makes a lot more contact. There are questions about how well Paredes’ power will play outside Tropicana Field, and the Rays rarely seem to lose a trade. But on the surface, the Cubs traded a guy for a dude: that is, an ordinary everyday player for an All-Star. Paredes comes with three-plus years of club control, and while the pitchers in the deal may develop for the Rays, neither ranked near the top of the Cubs’ prospect rankings.

 

The Rays are all about future value, and while Morel is hitting just .199, he does have power and an extra year of club control. He’s also much more established than Paredes was when the Rays acquired him from Detroit for Austin Meadows, and that deal turned out very well. Johnson and Bigge have both averaged 12 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, and Bigge – a 26-year-old Harvard product – has already graduated to the majors with the Cubs. Tampa Bay has a long history of identifying and developing useful big-league pitchers, so this deal could help them with the kind of depth (say, spots 15 to 26 on a roster) that makes the team competitive year after year. Even so, the return seems a bit light for the Rays, given that they were selling high on Paredes.

Rays: B-
Cubs: B+

 

[WhyCantWeWin]

17 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

For those that don't have The Athletic (I only have it for another week or so 😭), here is what they say about the trade:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5664438/2024/07/28/mlb-trade-grades-isaac-paredes-rays-cubs/

 

 

I agree with their assessments, this isnt some crazy steal by the Cubs. People should look beyond prospect lists. Paredes has some legitimate warts, but im hoping Hoyer knows what he’s doing here. 

[Derwood]

*reads topic title*

So did they trade for him or not?

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

I think the whole "Rays never get ripped off and are smarter than everyone else" is a little overblown, but I do think its fair to wonder if there's something they're seeing that most don't when it appears that they've been ripped off in a trade.

The worrisome thing with the trade is that Paredes has downside potential (especially with the Cubs), while Morel, Bigge, and Ty Johnson have upside potential.

But I think there's real risk for both sides.  Morel may just be a bad fielder everywhere and continue to not make the adjustments he needs against pitchers.  He's got some Patrick Wisdom to his game.

[LBiittner]

19 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I agree with their assessments, this isnt some crazy steal by the Cubs. People should look beyond prospect lists. Paredes has some legitimate warts, but im hoping Hoyer knows what he’s doing here. 

It's refreshing to see jed trade for something immediately useful and a legitimate need. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

It's refreshing to see jed trade for something immediately useful and a legitimate need. 

He just did that 6 months ago too 

[LBiittner]

6 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

He just did that 6 months ago too 

Horsefeathers, we'll probably have to wait 6 months during the w/meetings for him to fill another need