Cubs Reportedly In Talks (Maybe) With Mariners To Trade Nico Hoerner

[Brock Beauchamp]

Let's be upfront: this is the time of year when rumors are very squishy, sometimes intentionally. With a month remaining until the deadline, teams are neither confident in their needs nor are they willing to openly discuss which players they're pursuing. Jon Morosi, recently appearing on MLB Network, spoke about the Cubs and their likelihood of selling. He specifically mentioned middle infielder Nico Hoerner. From the clip - which isn't yet posted online - it's unclear whether Morosi is reporting that he specifically knows the Cubs are already in discussion with Seattle for Hoerner's services or that he suspects it is the case.

Hoerner is a very good option for Seattle. He's signed through the 2026 season at a reasonable cost ($12 million that season) and fills a need for the Mariners, who are 26th in baseball in OPS. Hoerner's 94 OPS+ doesn't jump off the page but Seattle could certainly find a utility role for him, shuffling him between Jorge Polanco at second base and JP Crawford at short.

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[KCCub]

I know Polanco has struggled so far this year, but them making a trade for an OFer seems to make a lot more sense to me then them making a splash for Nico. 

[Tryptamine]

I'm ok with moving Nico, especially with Shaw looking closer to ready. With that said, if I'm moving NIco then I absolutely have to get one of Colt Emerson or Harry Ford back as the lead piece. Cole Young has probably played himself out of being available for Nico.

[Brock Beauchamp]

24 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I know Polanco has struggled so far this year, but them making a trade for an OFer seems to make a lot more sense to me then them making a splash for Nico. 

Yeah, an outfielder seems like a natural fit for them but Polanco might be gone after this season, they hold a $12m option on him.

[JD94]

Lazaro Montes is a fun bat in their farm system, but he’s likely a DH

[Bertz]

The Mariners are the most strikeout prone offense in baseball a year after being the #2, so in that sense them sniffing around Nico makes a lot of sense.

That said I don't think this makes a lot of sense from the Cubs' side unless two of these three things are true:

A) You're committed to Morel owning a starting IF spot going forward

B) You're targeting a specific IF in FA this winter

C) Your internal evals on both Triantos and Shaw are sky high

For A, 3B seems unlikely at this point so I'd assume it'd be sliding Morel back to 2B? It is the one place he's shown some defensive chops in MLB.  That would actually be a savvy way to inject some offense into this team.  Though I'd be nervous about committing to Morel holding down a new defensive spot for a second year in a row.

B's pretty straightforward.  There's a pretty decent IF crop in FA this year with guys like Bregman, Kim, etc.

Shaw and Triantos are both having killer seasons and look to have September-issues ETAs, but there's just no way you can count on both successfully holding down spots next year so like I said it'd have to be paired with one of the above.

Overall I'm still fairly skeptical about this.  It feels like IF is not yet deep enough organizationally, plus while Nico's not an offensive force he is a good compliment to the types of hitters we do already have in house.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Not sure how I feel selling low on Hoerner, would really prefer if they could unload one of those big outfield contracts instead. 

[CubinNY]

Get that bidding war going, Jed. 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Not sure how I feel selling low on Hoerner, would really prefer if they could unload one of those big outfield contracts instead. 

And sell low on them? 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

And sell low on them? 

Ian Happ's 121 wRC+ is right in line with his last two (119 and 120). He's on pace for 3 wins this year (3.2 last and 3.6 the year before). Suzuki has a career 122 wRC+ and a 122 wRC+ this year. I dont think either would be selling low.

Not necessarily advocating for it, only suggesting that I think both would be valued fine based on their baseball merits currently. Their NTC's change the valuation far more, IMO.

[KCCub]

2 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Not sure how I feel selling low on Hoerner, would really prefer if they could unload one of those big outfield contracts instead. 

I would lose all faith in management if they move Nico for an underwhelming haul. He's under control for 2.5 years at $11.6m AAV (age 27), playing with a fractured hand, and still on pace for 3.4 fWAR per 150 games. Their return value should be that of a cost controlled cheap player, in his prime, who will probably get you around 10 fWAR from this point forwards to the end of his contract. 

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, KCCub said:

I would lose all faith in management if they move Nico for an underwhelming haul. 

You mean you haven't lost all faith in them already? 

[KCCub]

Just now, CubinNY said:

You mean you haven't lost all faith in them already? 

Receiving good value in trades is one of the few things I have faith Jed will do well in. However, the bad news is, it usually means we're on the selling end of said trade. 

[UMFan83]

fWAR for Cubs position players who have been on the team from 2022-2024:

Nico Hoerner - 10.3

Ian Happ - 8.3

Seiya Suzuki - 5.9

Christopher Morel - 3.3

Patrick Wisdom - 1.6

Yan Gomes - 0.9

Nick Madrigal - 0.7

Not saying we shouldn't trade Nico but he's worth 4.2 and 4.5 wins the last 2 seasons, a bit of a dip but still on pace for 3.4ish wins if he plays 150 games.  Not a superstar but hope they would value him accordingly in a trade.

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Ian Happ's 121 wRC+ is right in line with his last two (119 and 120). He's on pace for 3 wins this year (3.2 last and 3.6 the year before). Suzuki has a career 122 wRC+ and a 122 wRC+ this year. I dont think either would be selling low.

Not necessarily advocating for it, only suggesting that I think both would be valued fine based on their baseball merits currently. Their NTC's change the valuation far more, IMO.

I don’t disagree with you. But so many here think Happ and Suzuki are untradeable because they have negative value. I don’t feel that way. I was just suggesting what I felt many fans would be ok doing trading either Happ or Suzuki for less than they are worth. 
A trade wouldn’t be selling low on their performance this year. I think most fan undervalue both of them regardless of what they are doing at any point in the season. That is what I meant by “selling low”. So many fan just think they can trade one of them and Cassie or Alcantara or even Canario can come up and be just as good. I am not one of these fans. 

[Tryptamine]

24 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t disagree with you. But so many here think Happ and Suzuki are untradeable because they have negative value. I don’t feel that way. I was just suggesting what I felt many fans would be ok doing trading either Happ or Suzuki for less than they are worth. 
A trade wouldn’t be selling low on their performance this year. I think most fan undervalue both of them regardless of what they are doing at any point in the season. That is what I meant by “selling low”. So many fan just think they can trade one of them and Cassie or Alcantara or even Canario can come up and be just as good. I am not one of these fans. 

I don't think either of them have negative value. The issue would be getting either to wave their NTCs. 

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t disagree with you. But so many here think Happ and Suzuki are untradeable because they have negative value. I don’t feel that way. I was just suggesting what I felt many fans would be ok doing trading either Happ or Suzuki for less than they are worth. 
A trade wouldn’t be selling low on their performance this year. I think most fan undervalue both of them regardless of what they are doing at any point in the season. That is what I meant by “selling low”. So many fan just think they can trade one of them and Cassie or Alcantara or even Canario can come up and be just as good. I am not one of these fans. 

I don't think teams would view it that way. We know better than to take how fans think of a player and think that teams perceive it the same way.

I'm not sure either wave their NTC. I'm not sure the Cubs would even ask, though.

[Jason Ross]

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

Ah, the old secret GM signal which indicates that the Cubs maybe might possibly be willing to consider selling if they continue to lose and aren't in the playoff race and the right deal presents itself.

[Stratos]

Brock can you post your source?  Unless I missed something else, I don't see any reports of trade talks about Nico with Seattle by Morosi in the video Morosi talks about it on MLB network.  He's simply speculating on players who could possibly be moved by the Cubs and potential destinations.

 

[WhyCantWeWin]

26 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

 

So they can for sure get under the luxury tax this year and then half ass it again next year. 

[KCCub]

38 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

 

Flipping Jamo and Belli would open up a ton of flexibility for next year. It's just a matter of is next off-season the season that Jed pulls the trigger or would we be in for more of the same conservative Jed. 

[Cuzi]

If we are to the point of fire sale talk and discussing guys like Hoerner and Happ, start the search for a new PoBO. Rebuilding before a single playoff appearance since the last rebuild. Get someone who has a better clue on what it takes to win.

[Jason Ross]

It's Morsi, so TIFWIW. But based on the way that tweet framed his interview, it doesn't sound like a rebuild. Call it whatever you want, but it sounded like the Cubs were going to try to either get financial flexibility to spend next offseason and/or get prospects which would help the roster (presumably they'd be younger prospects but that doesn't meant they can't be traded later or used to restock the system on other trades). How effective you believe Hoyer is at making that is also a personal opinion. But it sounds very much like Hoyer's seat ain't that hot if he's willing to trade those players. And considering his deal is up in 2025, he still has to put forth a fairly competitive team if he hopes to have a contract in 2026.

[Rcal10]

42 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

If we are to the point of fire sale talk and discussing guys like Hoerner and Happ, start the search for a new PoBO. Rebuilding before a single playoff appearance since the last rebuild. Get someone who has a better clue on what it takes to win.

I agree with you. But this is where the dilemma comes in. Does TR put restraints on the new POBO or does he allow him to treat this team as a large market team. I just don’t see TR allowing it. Which would probably hurt his search for a new top guy. Personally, I think Jed is doing exactly what TR wants. That is why I am not sure he will make a change. The one caveat would be promoting Hawkins but then it is MOTS. Similar to what the white Sox did. See how well that is working.