2024/25 offseason

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, JD94 said:

Maybe it’s just me, but it feels like Tom and even Jed, I guess, just get a pass from not even fishing in the Soto type waters. It’s like we just accept that they won’t do it and are okay with it. I mean I know Cubs fans rioting on Twitter isn’t going to change the way the FO/Ownership run this team, it’s just annoying how they get a pass from this. There’s no excuse for us to not have a single super star player we can market and help us win games. Now we have a generational talent hitting the open market and Jed will probably offer 6/250 and walk away when they laugh in his face. 

I think if anything it's nearly the opposite.  There was good sourcing that they made Ohtani a very competitive offer, for example.  Obviously almost doesn't sign the player, but in that case since he was always destined to go to LA, we continue to have people bang the drum that Jed's only capable of making insulting offers and isn't even trying for certain players.

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think if anything it's nearly the opposite.  There was good sourcing that they made Ohtani a very competitive offer, for example.  Obviously almost doesn't sign the player, but in that case since he was always destined to go to LA, we continue to have people bang the drum that Jed's only capable of making insulting offers and isn't even trying for certain players.

This is one way to look at it. But another is what do people expect the fan base to do to show they are not giving the FO and ownership a pass? Who says people just let it go. I see a lot of people complaining about it here. Seems much of the fan base complains about it. I don’t think anyone just gives it a pass. I just don’t think the FO cares what the fan base wants. The choices of the fan base are to either stop watching them on tv, don’t buy the marquee app, stop going to the games all together or complain but support the team. Many fans choose to complain and support. Doesn’t mean they are giving the FO a pass and being okay with what is happening. 
 

[WhyCantWeWin]

I disagree with the notion that Ohtani was always destined to go to LA. They were the only team to meet his steep (understandably) demands. 

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I disagree with the notion that Ohtani was always destined to go to LA. They were the only team to meet his steep (understandably) demands. 

That's not true from what we know publicly.  It was very widely reported that the Giants and Blue Jays were at $700M and as soon as the Dodgers matched the deal got finalized and there was no additional soliciting of counters.

As for the Jed of it all, I suspect he would do a Corey Seager or Rafael Devers type deal, $300-400M for a 25 year old, but I have no expectation he will ever be the guy to break records on e.g. Soto because of his aversion to deal length.  

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I disagree with the notion that Ohtani was always destined to go to LA. They were the only team to meet his steep (understandably) demands. 

I feel disagreeing with the notion that Ohtani was going to go to LA all the while is just something people can do so that people can continue to complain about Jed and the Cubs FC/ownership. It was pretty apparent that was what Ohtani was going to do from the start. And when you add in the great deal he gave them allowing them to pay him later, it is almost impossible not to acknowledge that was the team all along. 
There are a lot of things to complain about when it comes to Jed, the FO and ownership, but not getting Ohtani is not one of them. And as far as that goes, I  don’t give them credit for trying either. It is easy to say they were in on Ohtani and they made a competitive offer, and it is easy to actually have made a competitive offer, if you know he will never take it anyway. And it was never going to happen. 

[JD94]

58 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think if anything it's nearly the opposite.  There was good sourcing that they made Ohtani a very competitive offer, for example.  Obviously almost doesn't sign the player, but in that case since he was always destined to go to LA, we continue to have people bang the drum that Jed's only capable of making insulting offers and isn't even trying for certain players.

Not saying you’re wrong, I maybe just missed it, or I chose to forget it. What was our offer to Ohtani? I remember (yes, consider the sourcing) that Nightengale said we balked at 10/500. If we weren’t even offering that, then that’s basically an insult to Shohei. He signed for $200M MORE than what was reported we wouldn’t even offer. If there was another offer that was made public, I apologize. From my perspective we did enough due diligence to say we tried while never actually being willing to give him what he ultimately got. 
 

Until I see the FO/Ownership actually go there with a super star, I’m going to choose to believe they’re never going to do that and all we can do is accept it apparently. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Not saying you’re wrong, I maybe just missed it, or I chose to forget it. What was our offer to Ohtani? I remember (yes, consider the sourcing) that Nightengale said we balked at 10/500. If we weren’t even offering that, then that’s basically an insult to Shohei. He signed for $200M MORE than what was reported we wouldn’t even offer. If there was another offer that was made public, I apologize. From my perspective we did enough due diligence to say we tried while never actually being willing to give him what he ultimately got. 
 

Until I see the FO/Ownership actually go there with a super star, I’m going to choose to believe they’re never going to do that and all we can do is accept it apparently. 

10/500 without deferrals is more than Ohtani signed for.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Eeeeeh, but probably pretty close. Both probably in the 300s somewhere 

39 million/7% more using the NPV calculation widely reported as Ohtani's LT hit.

[JD94]

58 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

10/500 without deferrals is more than Ohtani signed for.

 

Meh. I don’t know. There’s no consolation prize for finishing 2nd (or 3rd, or 4th whatever we were). Ohtani isn’t the first star we didn’t close either… or maybe even seriously pursue at all. Take any star player from Harper back in 2018 (?) up until Ohtani. We didn’t get any of them. Jed is on record that he’s pretty anti long term deal for big money like that. He seems set in his ways. He wants to build a homegrown team like a small market club but supplement with 2nd and 3rd tier free agents. We will see if not star chasing works for him. So far, no bueno. 

[Bertz]

43 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Meh. I don’t know. There’s no consolation prize for finishing 2nd (or 3rd, or 4th whatever we were). Ohtani isn’t the first star we didn’t close either… or maybe even seriously pursue at all. Take any star player from Harper back in 2018 (?) up until Ohtani. We didn’t get any of them. Jed is on record that he’s pretty anti long term deal for big money like that. He seems set in his ways. He wants to build a homegrown team like a small market club but supplement with 2nd and 3rd tier free agents. We will see if not star chasing works for him. So far, no bueno. 

The Dodgers didn't give out a long term mega FA deal between Greinke in 2012 and Freddie Freeman in 2021.  Even if you want to count the Betts sign and trade as being close enough (totally fair IMO) we're still talking 7 years of Friedman steadfastly refusing to play in these waters, and now they basically won't stop.

The "Team X won't do Transaction Y" thing is usually very context dependent and only true til it's not.

[Tim]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The "Team X won't do Transaction Y" thing is usually very context dependent and only true til it's not.

Very true.

 

Except for the White Sox.

[JD94]

19 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The Dodgers didn't give out a long term mega FA deal between Greinke in 2012 and Freddie Freeman in 2021.  Even if you want to count the Betts sign and trade as being close enough (totally fair IMO) we're still talking 7 years of Friedman steadfastly refusing to play in these waters, and now they basically won't stop.

The "Team X won't do Transaction Y" thing is usually very context dependent and only true til it's not.

That’s true, but from 2012-2019 (I use 2019 because that’s when Machado and Harper got the ball rolling on the “mega” deals) the only real mega deal signed was Stanton. Votto, Cano, and Pujols signed 10 year deals, but they were all $240M or less (yes, inflation, I know). My overall point is those 10+ year deals and $300+M contracts are much more common now since Machado and Harper signed theirs in 2019 than they were previously. They traded for Betts and locked him up in 2021, as you said, not long after those type of deal became more normal. From 2012-2024 the dodgers have been lower than 4th in payroll just twice, which was 2012 when their new owner took over and this year. They led MLB in payroll 6 of those years. In than same span, the Cubs have only had a top 10 payroll 5 times. So in that 12 year span, the Cubs have had less top 10 payrolls than the Dodgers have had #1 finishes. 

[Tryptamine]

6 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Looking at non-Soto FAs I’m interested in:

Roki Sasaki* - One of the coolest things about his situation is there’s kind of a new gen of aces in the NPB and competition is fierce as to who will have the best career. He’ll want a strong SP program and my guess is Yankees would be the favorite

Holmes and Scott - Both are having excellent pro careers and are probably the best relievers available. Scott should be widely popular esp if traded and maybe the highest priority non-Soto FA if Sasaki isn’t posted. I really am a fan of the career, essentially spotless in the minors. Holmes is a freak, SL currently has a 230 Stuff+, and seems underrated

Yusei Kikuchi - Great health and velo, new curveball, more strikes, fewer FBs, more GBs, yada yada…At 36 with his track record should be excellent FA value, maybe even goes SF Rodon on a 2 year deal

Jansen - Easy abv avg starting C when healthy. The flip side is who is jumping to pay a dirty thirty catcher with an injury history. I’d rather trade for Jake Rogers this summer 

Danny Coulombe throws strikes…Lucas Sims has multiplen spins, could throw the curve more…Frankie Montas more sinkers, splitters, and sliders…Leclerc the changeup…Loaisiga could be a cheaper Jordan Hicks for someone, maybe Yankees…Kenyan Middleton has 3 pitches…Minter and Ferguson are lefties with velob

*Would be posted and not a “true” FA

 

I just read he left his 2nd start in a row early with undisclosed arm discomfort.

Also, Kikuchi is the perfect pitcher to pick up if you're chasing Soto. He'd be on a short term deal and the upside is there, but there's enough uncertainty where you could probably get him on a 3/45 or 2/36 deal.

Edited June 23, 2024 by Tryptamine

[imb]

tom don't mention disney for some reason in every baseball post challenge

[Dfan25]

Can’t wait until Hoyer fixes 3B with Eugenio Suarez as he looks for his value deals .

[JBears79]

If the Cubs dont get Juan Soto why even bother.

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, JBears79 said:

If the Cubs dont get Juan Soto why even bother.

The team that passed on Ohtani, Bryce Harper, etc. is going to pay up for Soto?

[Tryptamine]

They'll probably sign a pretty big name in FA, but it's not going to be Soto or Burnes. My guess is the Cubs do something I hate and sign Alonso. They've had reported interest now for the last 2 years and I completely expect his inevitable 5 or 6 year deal to age like milk. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

They'll probably sign a pretty big name in FA, but it's not going to be Soto or Burnes. My guess is the Cubs do something I hate and sign Alonso. They've had reported interest now for the last 2 years and I completely expect his inevitable 5 or 6 year deal to age like milk. 

Not a fan of signing Alonso. Not for 6 years. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

Not a fan of signing Alonso. Not for 6 years. 

I'm not even a fan at 4 or 5. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

3 hours ago, Derwood said:

The team that passed on Ohtani, Bryce Harper, etc. is going to pay up for Soto?

Maybe Hoyer has learned his model is a failure. He was touting the Tampa Bay Ray as the ideal method with them winning without superstars but clearly it isn’t working for Hoyer. With some of his interviews this season it seems like hes alluded that the team needs a superstar but its not feasible for this current season. 

[Cuzi]

16 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Maybe Hoyer has learned his model is a failure. He was touting the Tampa Bay Ray as the ideal method with them winning without superstars but clearly it isn’t working for Hoyer. With some of his interviews this season it seems like hes alluded that the team needs a superstar but its not feasible for this current season. 

Should have been more aggressive in finding an answer for 3B.

The Orioles were ripe for the picking at the deadline last year. Jed looked at the market for the rental pitchers last year and decided that it was better to shoot for a last place finish in the playoffs instead of capitalizing on what the market was saying a pitcher like Stroman was worth. I wanted Westburg, the Orioles chose to trade Ortiz. Either one would be nice to have right now.

How last year played out told me all I needed to know about Jed Hoyer as captain. It was very clear what his intentions were when he made some of the signings he did and those intentions went right out the window for less than half a season of baseball. Now look at this team. What are you selling this year that improves future years? Better damn well go out and push hard for a Juan Soto, IF he even makes it to FA.

Edited July 1, 2024 by Cuzi

[Bertz]

Assuming Soto's not an option at the ownership level, I wouldn't plan on doing heavy lifting on the lineup via FA personally.

- Bregman's and Alonso's reputations far outstrip their current production at this point, both are Boras clients too so there are those associated headaches

- Ha Seong Kim is awesome but not a great fit for a team with Swanson, Hoerner. and potentially PCA already in the lineup

- None of the outfielders like Teoscar or O'Neill are appreciably better than what we have in house

- Willy Adames would be fun if he was willing to shift off of SS to 3B, but as the top SS on the market I don't expect he'd want to do that

I'd probably be into a d'Arnaud or Jansen at catcher, and certainly complimentary/bench options are fine, but otherwise I think you handle pitching in FA (Jack Flaherty?) and the lineup via trade.

[Cuzi]

If the rumors of the Cubs offering 10/500 to Ohtani are to be believed, then Soto is an option at ownership level. The only question is, is Jed making the call and is he the smartest man in the room?

Edited July 1, 2024 by Cuzi

[muntjack]

Ohtani is a special case.  He creates revenue streams that Soto does not.