Are The Cubs Going To Pursue Vladimir Guerrero Jr At The Trade Deadline?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Bob Nightengale (yes, I know) reported today that the Cubs have internally discussed pursuing the Blue Jays' star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Blue Jays could find themselves in a difficult position come July. While they're currently only two games out of the third Wild Card spot, they're also in last place in the American League East. The Jays' recent window of contention could be closing with several of their star position players entering free agency in the next year and a half while their MLB.com 24th-ranked farm system won't be providing much in the way of cost-controlled young talent in the immediate future.

Guerrero Jr is back to raking (137 OPS+) after a mildly disappointing 2023 season. The 25-year-old slugger will become a free agent after the 2025 season.

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[Jason Ross]

I feel like in the event the Jays decide to move Vlad, their valuation on him will exceed his value on the field. None of this is to say the Cubs cannot overpay for the correct players, or that the Cubs should ignore the Jays in that front, but being his defensive position is more tied to a position of, likely, lesser need internally (1b or DH) and his contract (the Cubs being adverse to LT breaches) and the likely Jays valuation...it feels pretty unlikely the Cubs will go that route. 

[Bertz]

Nightingale?  And it's not about the White Sox?  This should be a prime believe the opposite situation.  The Cubs are going to somehow prevent the Jay's from trading Guerrero.

Like Luis Robert it's not an ideal fit but it can work defensively and it's a major offensive boost so we shouldn't dismiss it out of hand.  Unlike Robert, I think the price will be much more in Jed's comfort zone.  Like even if you give him an arbitrary value bump for starpower / name recognition you're not worried about having to dip into Caissie or Horton or PCA.  You're talking like I dunno, Triantos and one of our second-tier SP prospects like Birdsell?  That 2025 salary looking like something in the $25-30M range is very problematic from a trade value standpoint.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Two things that might make a match here possible even with a celebrity premium:

1. The Jays are a fairly good match with other guys they may sell.  If the Jays insist on 2 Top 100 guys instead of 1 and a rising prospect, expanding the deal to be more one stop shopping could break that deadlock in a way other teams may not want to.

2. This is far from certain, but there may be a permutation where the Cubs would prefer to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get the Jays to pay down some of Vlad's remaining arb money.  The teams who can afford Vlad generally speaking would probably prefer to pay less and take on his arb number. Similarly, we know Jed's preference for prospects over paying big money, and that's a reason this may not happen.  But this kinda works in reverse.  If Vlad is one of only a couple big bats that may be available this deadline + offseason, and the alternatives are gonna require huge money that Jed can't/won't pay(Soto), then it may be more palatable to pay the prospect cost to get Vlad over the line and also maintain a bit more of his cherished financial flexibility.

[Tryptamine]

If they're getting Vlad I want Kikuchi in that deal too.

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If they're getting Vlad I want Kikuchi in that deal too.

Why stop there? Why not Jansen too? 

[KCCub]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Why stop there? Why not Jansen too? 

Just go ahead and throw in Yimi as well and make it a one stop shop.

[gflore34]

To me this is about as realistic as the Cubs "pursuit" of Ohtani.

[Bertz]

3 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Two things that might make a match here possible even with a celebrity premium:

1. The Jays are a fairly good match with other guys they may sell.  If the Jays insist on 2 Top 100 guys instead of 1 and a rising prospect, expanding the deal to be more one stop shopping could break that deadlock in a way other teams may not want to.

2. This is far from certain, but there may be a permutation where the Cubs would prefer to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get the Jays to pay down some of Vlad's remaining arb money.  The teams who can afford Vlad generally speaking would probably prefer to pay less and take on his arb number. Similarly, we know Jed's preference for prospects over paying big money, and that's a reason this may not happen.  But this kinda works in reverse.  If Vlad is one of only a couple big bats that may be available this deadline + offseason, and the alternatives are gonna require huge money that Jed can't/won't pay(Soto), then it may be more palatable to pay the prospect cost to get Vlad over the line and also maintain a bit more of his cherished financial flexibility.

To your point towards the end there, I think Vladito making $25-30M next season is more feature than bug for Jed.  He's scared of years not AAVs. Vlad would function as this TDL's prize, but also sort of double as this winter's "big signing" and give Jed a bit of cover to hang more mid market on the FA shopping list.

[mfcubs22]

Get him! 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Would hate to give up a ton for a 1B but i am a fan of Vladdy Jr. If it only takes 1 from the cubs top 100 id be game. 

[mfcubs22]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Would hate to give up a ton for a 1B but i am a fan of Vladdy Jr. If it only takes 1 from the cubs top 100 id be game. 

I’d probably give any 2 outside of PCA and Horton if we could also get Jansen thrown in. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 hour ago, mfcubs22 said:

I’d probably give any 2 outside of PCA and Horton if we could also get Jansen thrown in. 

Id include Caissie in that untouchable list but yeah i agree

[NorthsideAvenger]

10 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Id include Caissie in that untouchable list but yeah i agree

I could see TOR wanted Caissie in any Vlad, Jr deal.

[chibears55]

Give them Busch, Davis, and Drew Gray

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I feel like in the event the Jays decide to move Vlad, their valuation on him will exceed his value on the field. None of this is to say the Cubs cannot overpay for the correct players, or that the Cubs should ignore the Jays in that front, but being his defensive position is more tied to a position of, likely, lesser need internally (1b or DH) and his contract (the Cubs being adverse to LT breaches) and the likely Jays valuation...it feels pretty unlikely the Cubs will go that route. 

Agree that he's going to come overpriced for what he is.  It would take significant prospects to nab him for just a year and a half, just doesn't seem worth it.  And if he doesn't extend with the Jays he's not going to extend with us.

[Thusly Boned]

Vlad is years removed from being a difference maker, and I feel like people are are dazzled by the name but aren't fully aware of what he is as a player currently. He isn't going to be worth what he will cost as essentially a rental and I personally wouldn't have any real interest in re-signing him to a long term deal. He's not bad by any stretch, but he's been more decent than great over his career to this point.

So I hope the Cubs don't trade for him, even if they are even still interested.

Edited June 10, 2024 by Thusly Boned

[KCCub]

3 hours ago, Thusly Boned said:

Vlad is years removed from being a difference maker, and I feel like people are are dazzled by the name but aren't fully aware of what he is as a player currently. He isn't going to be worth what he will cost as essentially a rental and I personally wouldn't have any real interest in re-signing him to a long term deal. He's not bad by any stretch, but he's been more decent than great over his career to this point.

So I hope the Cubs don't trade for him, even if they are even still interested.

While 2021 might not be completely repeatable, he's a launch angle tweak away from being close. When you say "years removed from being a difference maker", it makes the guy sound like he's on the wrong side of 30 - He's 25 and just entering his prime. His Savant page is fantastic, outside of his LA. 

To me, this is a guy who has a 130 wRC+ floor over the next 7ish years with a possibility of converting him back to a fly ball hitter and have him turn into the superstar bat that he has the potential of. 

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, KCCub said:

While 2021 might not be completely repeatable, he's a launch angle tweak away from being close. When you say "years removed from being a difference maker", it makes the guy sound like he's on the wrong side of 30 - He's 25 and just entering his prime. His Savant page is fantastic, outside of his LA. 

To me, this is a guy who has a 130 wRC+ floor over the next 7ish years with a possibility of converting him back to a fly ball hitter and have him turn into the superstar bat that he has the potential of. 

I agree. He would be a good get. As you said he is only 25. But the issue is, could the Cubs keep him for some of those prime years between 27-31? And what does that contract look like? 

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree. He would be a good get. As you said he is only 25. But the issue is, could the Cubs keep him for some of those prime years between 27-31? And what does that contract look like? 

If he doesn't turn back into '21 Vlad sometime in the next 15 months I think he tops out in the low 9 figures.  I think everyone is in agreement that guy from '21 is still in there somewhere, and regardless of anything he's going to hit the market quite young, but there's only so much you can pay a DH with a non-elite bat.

[Stratos]

17 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

To be fair, if you consider how we’re trained/conditioned to think about this stuff….this is almost literally literally what everyone comes to about everyone. It’s the easiest thing on the pro sports planet to say, has become so common an opinion/“analysis” that it’s pretty meaningless 

Name one player, especially a famous one….say since Rebuild 1.0…that Cubs and sports fans have called perfectly priced. The algorithm is always always always overpaidz, not that good, aging etc. It’s a crutch, and a terrible combo with Cubss/sports fans who kinda just parrot the latest prospect takes from Disney uncritically (take, for instance, the Cristian Hernandez hysteria of 2021). Worse is that we’ve become only more dogmatic over time: whereas it started as like “boy we should be careful abt the 30+ years”, it’s slowly but surely spread to covering everyone all the time 

It’s pretty funny how a common complaint abt this franchise and FO is how boring and cowardly it is, both true and a luxury of wealth, but noooooo one wants to actually make the leap from fans on up unless it costs nothing and is risk free (detached and absurd but the reality forced on all)

He's been worth about 3.5 WAR if he gets 700 PA's.  We'd have him for a year and a half and he's not going to extend. He already makes 20m a year.  How much in prospects is a 3-3.5 WAR player worth for a year and a half?  Probably not as much as the Jays will want.

Trading prospects in the right deal is fine.

[Stratos]

Busch has the same WAR as Vladdy Jr this season.  Both are tied for 4th in WAR among 1B.

If they want a position upgrade at the deadline they'd be better to target 3B (Cubs are 29th in 3B WAR at -0.3 WAR), or possibly catcher (also 29th) if they want to go that way.  Morel could then DH, or possibly head to Iowa to keep working on fielding if he's still not hitting.  Cubs have done well this year at DH (7th in MLB).

I'm sure they'll be looking for pen help again.

Edited June 11, 2024 by Stratos

[Derwood]

WTF is it with you and Disney?

[CubinNY]

31 minutes ago, Derwood said:

WTF is it with you and Disney?

This post should be framed and hung in the Louver as the apex Derwood post. 

[Derwood]

5 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

This post should be framed and hung in the Louver as the apex Derwood post. 

 

Thanks. None of yours should be seen by anyone