Are The Cubs Going To Pursue Vladimir Guerrero Jr At The Trade Deadline?

[mul21]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

This post should be framed and hung in the Louver as the apex Derwood post. 

I'll make fun of Derwood all day, but calling him out as the weird one in this exchange is peak CubinNY. 🙄

[Rcal10]

So back to baseball, I keep hearing about Alonso, Vlad and Robert. I was listening to the radio and Levine was on. He alluded to the Mets maybe wanting PCA back for Alonso. That would be a huge NO. So while guys want one of the big bats, you have to realize the cost. I think the only one I consider PCA being moved for would be Robert. I am not sure the cubs should give a top 8 prospect in their system for Alonso. Not for half a year. As for Vlad, maybe a bit more because of an extra year. But if Levine is right and Alonso cost PCA, I doubt the Cubs make any move on a big bat. Because Vlad would cost more and Robert even more. 

[Bertz]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

So back to baseball, I keep hearing about Alonso, Vlad and Robert. I was listening to the radio and Levine was on. He alluded to the Mets maybe wanting PCA back for Alonso. That would be a huge NO. So while guys want one of the big bats, you have to realize the cost. I think the only one I consider PCA being moved for would be Robert. I am not sure the cubs should give a top 8 prospect in their system for Alonso. Not for half a year. As for Vlad, maybe a bit more because of an extra year. But if Levine is right and Alonso cost PCA, I doubt the Cubs make any move on a big bat. Because Vlad would cost more and Robert even more. 

You do not need to worry about this.  I can't think of the last time a rental cost anywhere approaching that.  This is just the silly posturing every GM does until they get serious after the draft.

Think about the trades the Cubs have done the last several years.  I think Alcantara might have been the only guy who got any Top 100 love, but he was literally all the way down in the Complex leagues.

There is a premium for SPs who you feel good about starting a playoff game, otherwise even the best rentals net guys on the very back of tbe Top 100.  So like from the Cubs you're looking at probably Triantos as the ceiling of what could possibly be required for a rental unless the Cubs start sniffing around Jack Flaherty.

Vlad obviously has 1.5 years before free agency, though I think his salary next year will likely price him pretty in line with a premium rental.

[Rcal10]

42 minutes ago, Bertz said:

You do not need to worry about this.  I can't think of the last time a rental cost anywhere approaching that.  This is just the silly posturing every GM does until they get serious after the draft.

Think about the trades the Cubs have done the last several years.  I think Alcantara might have been the only guy who got any Top 100 love, but he was literally all the way down in the Complex leagues.

There is a premium for SPs who you feel good about starting a playoff game, otherwise even the best rentals net guys on the very back of tbe Top 100.  So like from the Cubs you're looking at probably Triantos as the ceiling of what could possibly be required for a rental unless the Cubs start sniffing around Jack Flaherty.

Vlad obviously has 1.5 years before free agency, though I think his salary next year will likely price him pretty in line with a premium rental.

My only concern would be with so few teams selling and so many possibly buying, prices may be higher than expected. And paying premium pricing to maybe make the playoffs just doesn’t make sense. Now, teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies who are pretty much playoff teams, it makes more sense for them to be more aggressive. Alonso might be worth a top 50 prospect (as an example) to a sure playoff team, but no so much to a team just hoping to get in. 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

My only concern would be with so few teams selling and so many possibly buying, prices may be higher than expected. And paying premium pricing to maybe make the playoffs just doesn’t make sense. Now, teams like the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies who are pretty much playoff teams, it makes more sense for them to be more aggressive. Alonso might be worth a top 50 prospect (as an example) to a sure playoff team, but no so much to a team just hoping to get in. 

It's been a "seller's market" basically every year of the new CBA, maybe even further back.  It's just not gonna happen.  Like if Jed wants Robert or Luzardo or someone else with an under-market contract and multiple years of control I'm not sure there's a name we can totally take off the table, but Vlad or any of the rentals are not going to get there.

[Jacob Zanolla]

Id love this but don't see it as a real likelihood. We know Jed is cheap and wants to keep all of his prospects, and Vlad would cost a lot. Seems like a good move that a lot of GMs would make but sadly not Jed

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Jacob Zanolla said:

Id love this but don't see it as a real likelihood. We know Jed is cheap and wants to keep all of his prospects, and Vlad would cost a lot. Seems like a good move that a lot of GMs would make but sadly not Jed

The Cubs literally traded for the best bat on the trade market just last year.

[squally1313]

Cheap = Not the Dodgers, come on, you guys know this by now

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

The Cubs literally traded for the best bat on the trade market just last year.

(not named Ohtani). 

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

(not named Ohtani). 

Ohtani got traded during the regular season last year?

[CubinNY]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Ohtani got traded during the regular season last year?

ya got me. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

It's been a "seller's market" basically every year of the new CBA, maybe even further back.  It's just not gonna happen.  Like if Jed wants Robert or Luzardo or someone else with an under-market contract and multiple years of control I'm not sure there's a name we can totally take off the table, but Vlad or any of the rentals are not going to get there.

I think for Vlad the Cubs would lose one of their MLB top 100 prospects. Maybe a guy somewhere after Cassie, Shaw, PCA and Horton. Maybe a decent second piece as well. For Alonso, I think you are correct. As for Robert, I think the Sox will price themselves out of any serious offers. 

[Tryptamine]

24 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think for Vlad the Cubs would lose one of their MLB top 100 prospects. Maybe a guy somewhere after Cassie, Shaw, PCA and Horton. Maybe a decent second piece as well. For Alonso, I think you are correct. As for Robert, I think the Sox will price themselves out of any serious offers. 

The Sox reportedly wanted a package in excess of the one the Nationals got for Soto. San Diego gave up #9 CJ Abrams, #21 Robert Hassel, #88 James Woods, Formerly very highly rated Mackenzie Gore whose luster was wearing off and then Jarlin Susana whose helium was enormous. That's like asking for PCA+Horton+Ballesteros+Brennan Davis+ Hernandez and even that might be light because PCA isn't as highly ranked as Abrams was and Hernandez doesn't have the hype Jarlin did. To want even more than that is insanity.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The Sox reportedly wanted a package in excess of the one the Nationals got for Soto. San Diego gave up #9 CJ Abrams, #21 Robert Hassel, #88 James Woods, Formerly very highly rated Mackenzie Gore whose luster was wearing off and then Jarlin Susana whose helium was enormous. That's like asking for PCA+Horton+Ballesteros+Brennan Davis+ Hernandez and even that might be light because PCA isn't as highly ranked as Abrams was and Hernandez doesn't have the hype Jarlin did. To want even more than that is insanity.

Yeah I get Robert has the extra year of control vs the Soto situation but he's also giving up over 100 points of OBP (and some slugging) and no amount of defensive metrics are going to overcome that. The price wouldn't be light, and would almost definitely include PCA, but that package seems heavy.

Wanted to toss in an idea about getting Moncada back in this deal if you're going to go big, but it appears he's actually totally broken, so nevermind. 

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

The issue we keep running into already during earliest 2.0 is “the right deal” doesn’t seem to ever exist. Everyone seems to be their “bad” stats, no one’s cheap enough, no one’s young enough, all analysis moves towards “the player is exactly what their bottom line results are in this moment or worse until imminent and dramatic decline”….I don’t really see a path to getting better if 25 YOs who hit the crap out of the ball, get on base, and have massive MVP caliber ceilings aren’t worthy of what we’ve been told by Disney to imagine Kevin Alcantara’s upside is

Personally I don’t see how this:

is a bad thing. The team’s current DH has a .312 career OBP, 3.2 *career* fWAR in his third season, is on pace for a career low, and is even more useless on defense. They can’t just go and get a starting 3B that doesn’t exist, but also certainly don’t have to stop at one move if that player shows up.

The team's current DH is Tauchman, and should probably be Suzuki.  DH is the position we need the least.  We have Bellinger as a 1b backup.

3b would probably be a hard position to trade for based on who is available, which doesn't seem like much.  But if they want a Jay they should target Bichette.  They can have Morel lol.