Cubs (Imanaga) vs Cardinals (Mikolas): 5/24/24, 7:15pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Cards are on a bit of a heater, it'd be nice to see Shota shut them down tonight.

[thawv]

So Morel is -9 in Outs Above Average.  Not only is that the worst at 3B, but it's dead last for every player in the league at every position.  How much longer does he play there?  Why not give Vazquez a shot and move Morel to DH?

[gflore34]

Mikolas is certainly a step down from Sale, Jones, Skenes, Darvish, et. al. maybe, the Cubs actually hit tonight.

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, thawv said:

So Morel is -9 in Outs Above Average.  Not only is that the worst at 3B, but it's dead last for every player in the league at every position.  How much longer does he play there?  Why not give Vazquez a shot and move Morel to DH?

Because Vazquez probably can’t hit. Might as well let Madrigal play 3rd if you are going to do that. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

So Morel is -9 in Outs Above Average.  Not only is that the worst at 3B, but it's dead last for every player in the league at every position.  How much longer does he play there?  Why not give Vazquez a shot and move Morel to DH?

It’s a horsefeathers stat. 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It’s a horsefeathers stat. 

I wouldn't go that far, but I would caution 2 things:

1. Statcast's numbers are pretty bulletproof for outfielders where it's mainly assessing range, there's a little more grey on the accuracy with infielders

2. If we could look at the accumulation of those negative plays/runs day by day, I believe 80-90% of it came in the first week of the season.  I think Morel's been within a stones through of average since the Dodgers series.  So if we're worried about the team going forward, his horrific play against the Rangers and Rockies probably isn't too meaningful.  It's totally fair to include it looking back and assessing value of course

[Jason Ross]

29 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It’s a horsefeathers stat. 

Well, I don't think that's true at all. OAA is using incredibly advanced cameras and algorithms. I've got no problem pointing out flaws; defensive metrics work best over multiple season sample sizes and while they're getting better and better and better, they're not as far along as offensive metrics. OAA is far better than their predecessors like UZR or things prior. OAA and DRS are rarely universes apart. and he's logged a -6 DRS. The total numbers are not good. Rarely do you look at the OAA or DRS for a fielder and it not make sense. 

I do think the -9 is probably a bit of a misleading number as much of his really bad play seemed to come at the start of the season. I wish we had a "game log" feature when it came to OAA where we could track it over sample sizes over time. Morel being worse at 3b the first week of April makes sense logically as he really gets comfortable at the position. 

So I'd say this instead: OAA and DRS are not horsefeathers stats. They're the best way we have to measure fielding today and are likely pretty darn close to the truth. With that said, Morel is a unique situation, as he's learning a "new" (and by new I should say maybe "relearning") position on the fly. We should expect the numbers to be rough but to smooth out as he gains comfort...so being forgiving of the defensive failures is probably fair and the right way to do things.

[squally1313]

You guys he just doesn’t like the information that the stat is telling you. People were doing this with wRC yesterday. Let the people fit their narratives. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The worst of it missed us to the north, but there's still a small but heavy storm system that is supposed to blow through in the vicinity of first pitch.  Don't be surprised if there's a delay, but shouldn't be substantial or jeopardize whether they play today

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, thawv said:

So Morel is -9 in Outs Above Average.  Not only is that the worst at 3B, but it's dead last for every player in the league at every position.  How much longer does he play there?  Why not give Vazquez a shot and move Morel to DH?

Probably because then Tauchman don't play, though they could probably just sit Happ for a bit.

[chibears55]

This is good...

 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Because Vazquez probably can’t hit. Might as well let Madrigal play 3rd if you are going to do that. 

Vasquez is very good defensively.  He might even hit better than Madrigal.  He can't hit worse.

[Stratos]

Hoping Amaya can hit better at some point.  He's a good receiver, but his pop-time is terrible.  If he can't hit then he's a backup catcher on a good team.

Verdict very much out on prospect Moises B. defensively.  I'm sure they have to grab a catcher this winter to replace Gomes anyways.

[Stratos]

16 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Probably because then Tauchman don't play, though they could probably just sit Happ for a bit.

There's always the option to play Bellinger at 1B and Tauchman in CF like last year, if Busch continues his poor hitting.  Busch has had a 40 K% in May.  In sure they don't want to send him to AAA, nothing left for him there, they want to give him every chance here.

Morel has been better defensively though from April and ST at least.  His May defensive numbers aren't good though either.  I'd just keep playing him there at least until Shaw is ready.  The patience and growing pains may pay off with reps.  If he still sucks when Shaw gets the call then he's a DH or a the world's worst fielding super sub.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I wouldn't go that far, but I would caution 2 things:

1. Statcast's numbers are pretty bulletproof for outfielders where it's mainly assessing range, there's a little more grey on the accuracy with infielders

2. If we could look at the accumulation of those negative plays/runs day by day, I believe 80-90% of it came in the first week of the season.  I think Morel's been within a stones through of average since the Dodgers series.  So if we're worried about the team going forward, his horrific play against the Rangers and Rockies probably isn't too meaningful.  It's totally fair to include it looking back and assessing value of course

And let's remember we can't use the fangraphs def rating because it's counting his time at DH against him.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

2. If we could look at the accumulation of those negative plays/runs day by day, I believe 80-90% of it came in the first week of the season.  I think Morel's been within a stones through of average since the Dodgers series.

How do you check fielding/OAA by date for a player?  I tried fangraphs but it doesn't seem to do fielding by custom date range for 2024.

[Stratos]

I think we could be happy with say up to -4 OAA the rest of the season for Morel at 3B, given this is his 1st season in a long time at 3B.  If he's somewhere between 0 and -2 next year (if he were to play 3B full time) that would be fantastic.  We need some patience here, and possibly with Busch offensively as well.

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, Stratos said:

How do you check fielding/OAA by date for a player?  I tried fangraphs but it doesn't seem to do fielding by custom date range for 2024.

I am unfortunately not aware of one.  

[Bertz]

 

I believe Sunday is currently slated as another bullpen game, so have to imagine Smyly giving 2-3 innings is expected to be part of that mix.

[chibears55]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

I believe Sunday is currently slated as another bullpen game, so have to imagine Smyly giving 2-3 innings is expected to be part of that mix.

Why ? Assad would be on a normal 4 day rest on Sunday, or are they just holding him for the Brewers.

Also, we could see something happen with Hendricks when they activate Smyly,  my guess another IL trip.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

Why ? Assad would be on a normal 4 day rest on Sunday, or are they just holding him for the Brewers.

Also, we could see something happen with Hendricks when they activate Smyly,  my guess another IL trip.

I think whenever possible Counsel likes to give his staff an extra day. Lot of guys he is monitored inning for. Assad is one of them. Since they play 13 in a row I expect him to have a bullpen day. Doing this would also keep Imanaga on a 6 day schedule. Again, something I think they want to do.
As for Hendricks, 1 would like to see something happen with him. But to me it is more likely either Hodge or Little get sent down when Smyly is activated. But as I said, I hope you are right. 

Edited May 24, 2024 by Rcal10

[chibears55]

Game will start in Rain Delay

[JHBulls]

Have really enjoyed the kick to the chops seeing the Pirates outstanding lineup beating the Braves 7-0. 

[CubinNY]

How long is the delay?

[chibears55]

https://x.com/Cardinals/status/1794159929328349358?t=tMpyzmWhIJE1IOow6CWOmg&s=19