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Marlins (Cabrera) vs Cubs (Hendricks): 4/21/24, 1:20pm, Marquee

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squally1313 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

squally1313

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

realize his OBP was actually at .500 11 days ago because he was walked 8 times in his first 8 games,

Does this part of his stats not count or something 

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squally1313 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

squally1313

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Once the fourth outfielder stopped running a 500 OBP, clearly Jed should have woken up from his nap and replaced him with the next guy who can do the same. 

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

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Posted
2 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

What are you even asking  ?

 

He's asking why aren't the 8 walks Tauchman took like 2 weeks ago not relevant to a discussion about his worth? 

soccer10k Cooperstown

soccer10k

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35 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

He's asking why aren't the 8 walks Tauchman took like 2 weeks ago not relevant to a discussion about his worth? 

If you take out all of the innings where Hendricks had given up an earned run, he’s got a 0.00 ERA right now!

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chibears55 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

chibears55

Old-Timey Member
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Posted
25 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

He's asking why aren't the 8 walks Tauchman took like 2 weeks ago not relevant to a discussion about his worth? 

Nobody said it wasn't relevant, it very much is and it shows that after reaching base 12 times in the first 24 PA due to 8 walks, he has reached base only 8 times in 31 PA since with just 1 walk.  

So, he hasn't been the same player he was in the beginning when fans were complimenting him and his OBP, he has dropped significantly in getting on base.

But again,  I'm not thrashing him because he has played ok for being a 4th OFer, just saying we can't keep pointing to his OBP as being significant for him because it hasn't been that great in his last 31 PA a .258 OBP

squally1313 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

squally1313

Old-Timey Member
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Posted
4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Nobody said it wasn't relevant, it very much is and it shows that after reaching base 12 times in the first 24 PA due to 8 walks, he has reached base only 8 times in 31 PA since with just 1 walk.  

So, he hasn't been the same player he was in the beginning when fans were complimenting him and his OBP, he has dropped significantly in getting on base.

But again,  I'm not thrashing him because he has played ok for being a 4th OFer, just saying we can't keep pointing to his OBP as being significant for him because it hasn't been that great in his last 31 PA a .258 OBP

I can't believe I'm doing this, but why can't that last sentence say '....it has been great in his last 55 PAs a .365 OBP'? Why can't we say '...it has been great in his last 13 PAs a .385 OBP'. Why do you get to cherry pick a specific number of PAs that paints him in the worst light possible? 

The whole conversation started with some criticism of Jed not putting together enough depth on the roster. Someone else referenced the last 7 games for Cooper to ignore his overall successful season, you're doing the same thing for Tauchman to ignore his overall .364 OBP for the year. Those initial games count, and unless you decide to really cherry pick somehow (which I guess wouldn't be surprising!), the good things they did prior to the last 7 games/31 PAs contributed to us having a good record (which we still have!). What is Jed supposed to do here, just have a dozen fringe starters lying around so we can dump players when they have a bad week? How is that even remotely realistic or recommended? 

Stratos ACL Cubs

Stratos

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7 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

But I think we're beyond the point of chalking it up to bad luck.  He is just getting hit way too often, hard or not.

The HR/FB is 33% and the BABIP is .387.  He's been crap but I think some of it is clearly bad luck.  He has 16.4 H/9, he can't keep that up, that many bloops won't keep falling in.

squally1313 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

squally1313

Old-Timey Member
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Posted
11 minutes ago, Stratos said:

The HR/FB is 33% and the BABIP is .387.  He's been crap but I think some of it is clearly bad luck.  He has 16.4 H/9, he can't keep that up, that many bloops won't keep falling in.

On one hand....Hendricks is at 33% HR/FB, which is 5th for pitchers with 10+ innings this year (Adbert is first at 40%). I went back to 1970 and no who has thrown 50 or more innings has had a HR/FB rate above 32%. 

On the other hand, the loud contact is very much there, and even regressing that rate to a normal level still leads to pretty ugly numbers (vs someone like Adbert where the path is a lot clearer). Still have the same opinion I had this today (and honestly, 5 K/0 BB, one extra base hit in 4 innings is a step in the right direction). But there's plenty of work to be done. 

Bull ACL Cubs

Bull

Old-Timey Member
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Posted
9 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I can't believe I'm doing this, but why can't that last sentence say '....it has been great in his last 55 PAs a .365 OBP'? Why can't we say '...it has been great in his last 13 PAs a .385 OBP'. Why do you get to cherry pick a specific number of PAs that paints him in the worst light possible? 

The whole conversation started with some criticism of Jed not putting together enough depth on the roster. Someone else referenced the last 7 games for Cooper to ignore his overall successful season, you're doing the same thing for Tauchman to ignore his overall .364 OBP for the year. Those initial games count, and unless you decide to really cherry pick somehow (which I guess wouldn't be surprising!), the good things they did prior to the last 7 games/31 PAs contributed to us having a good record (which we still have!). What is Jed supposed to do here, just have a dozen fringe starters lying around so we can dump players when they have a bad week? How is that even remotely realistic or recommended? 

NSBB needs a new poster primer, tutorial, FAQ, entrance exam or new poster class to bring people up to speed on topics like SSS, recency bias, opportunity cost, and sunk cost.

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Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, squally1313 said:

On one hand....Hendricks is at 33% HR/FB, which is 5th for pitchers with 10+ innings this year (Adbert is first at 40%). I went back to 1970 and no who has thrown 50 or more innings has had a HR/FB rate above 32%. 

On the other hand, the loud contact is very much there, and even regressing that rate to a normal level still leads to pretty ugly numbers (vs someone like Adbert where the path is a lot clearer). Still have the same opinion I had this today (and honestly, 5 K/0 BB, one extra base hit in 4 innings is a step in the right direction). But there's plenty of work to be done. 

So the homeruns won't keep up.  I'm increasingly confident we don't have to caveat that "Maybe he's a unicorn but in a bad way" like I have been.  He's given up 7 barrels and 8 homeruns.  The league has given up 1253 barrels and 653 homeruns.  He's just getting unlucky.  This isn't exhaustive, but I pulled what I think is most of the position player pitching data from the last 15 years and they have a collective HR/FB rate of 16.5%.  Again, he's just been comically unlucky.

What I can't handwave away is the complete inability to miss bats.  Kyle's giving up a 91% contact rate in the zone.  That's in the territory of guys like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner.  And he's clearly not suppressing hard contact to a meaningful degree and the groundball rate is good not great.  So even chalking the dongs up as mostly bad luck I'm struggling to see a path to an ERA much under 5 until he can miss a couple more bats.  It's not the disaster it has been but it's behind Brown and Wesneski and Assad in any sort of reasonable pecking order.

I might give Kyle one more start before throwing him on the IL to clear his head though, less because I think he'll do anything with it and more because we're starting up this stretch of 16 straight and we probably don't get Justin Steele back until right after that next off day.

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mul21 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

mul21

Old-Timey Member
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Posted
57 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I would really like to know why there isn't a game thread up yet.

Stupidity Are You Stupid GIF

😉

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Jason Ross Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Jason Ross

North Side Contributor
Posted
Posted

The one caveat I'll add to the HR aspect for Hendricks: while he's not giving up a ton of barrels his xHR on the season is 7.4 and he's given up 8 home runs. To put that in perspective, that's the worst number of any pitcher in the league currently. So while I think the barrel-per-home-runs are low, the xHR and the actual home run data is within a rounding error of each other currently. The xData suggests that while he's been a tad unlucky, he's generally getting beat by the home run within reason. None of this is to ignore the other data only that I think we're in such small sample size territory on Hendricks that the amount of bad luck you find within his data is about the amount of bad luck you want to find. You can point to different numbers to suggest both right now. 

Ultimately, I agree with the overall point that many have suggested that we're kind of on "last chance" for Hendricks for a while. The lack of whiffs is concerning, the statcast data is concerning, the ERA is concerning...I can't find much to point to for hope for improvement unless the control takes a leap forward, and quickly. I want him to succeed, I just don't know if he's capable of it any more. 

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