Article: Who Should Take Justin Steele's Rotation Spot in the Coming Weeks?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Chicago Cubs' ace southpaw was forced from his Opening Day start with a strained left hamstring, and Craig Counsell is already forecasting a stint on the injured list. How can the team weather this massive blow?

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Though the team has insisted otherwise, and proved their faith by refusing to meet an extremely low asking price for Jordan Montgomery earlier this week, the Cubs' pitching was thin even entering Opening Day. Their modest projected win totals in each of the major projection systems (always right around .500, always second in the compact NL Central race) have been held down by those systems' mistrust of their pitching. The Cubs and their fans pinned their hopes for confounding those expectations to Justin Steele. Now, those hopes have been punctured.

If this ain't a mess, it'll do til the mess gets here. That Counsell called Steele's hamstring injury a strain right after the game and admitted he expects him to go on the injured list, even before the hurler goes for an MRI Friday, is tellingly ominous. The Cubs have to assume (and act as though) they will be without Steele for a month or more, especially because this injury comes at such an inopportune time. It could force him to spend a long time ramping back up to be ready to start, even after he gets the leg healthy.

In the meantime, and with Jameson Taillon also on the shelf, the Cubs have Kyle Hendricks, Shota Imanaga, Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, and a big old question mark in their starting rotation. They've stated a (wise) desire to give Imanaga an extra day whenever possible, as he adapts to the tighter rotation schedule of Stateside ball after a decade in NPB, so shortening the rotation will be a non-option, even given the off days they have early in their schedule. The Cubs need a fifth starter, and they will need them for a while.

It's Ben Brown time. The easiest choices would be to call up a reliever like Daniel Palencia and install veteran southpaw Drew Smyly, or to change course and recall Hayden Wesneski, after he planned to go to Triple-A Iowa and stretch out to start, but the Cubs shouldn't do either. They need real upside in their rotation, especially with Steele removed from it. Brown looked terrific this spring. He's already on the 40-man roster. He has great stuff. He could make his debut Wednesday, against the hopelessly bad Colorado Rockies in what figures to be a chilly Wrigley Field. That's a nice, soft landing.

If the Cubs are destined to make the playoffs this year, they need Brown to make a fistful of good starts (or more). They need Cade Horton to come up later this summer and be good, too. Those guys are the quiet, not-quite-confident answers reasonable people have given to the questions raised by projection systems about the team's pitching outlook, even before the Steele injury. The team's need for them has come much sooner than expected, but they need to resist the temptation to shy away and default to more conventional, easier choices. Within a fortnight or so, Taillon might be ready to re-join the rotation, bumping Brown back to Iowa. In the meantime, they should be angling to learn more about one of their most important young arms.

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How would you fill the void left by Steele's injury? What is your level of concern over the Cubs' ace, and/or over Taillon? Jump in below to steer the discussion.

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[Jason Ross]

I'm not normally someone who puts much stock in Spring Training numbers, but Ben Browns control of his fastball just looked better. Have to agree: it's Ben Brown time. He fits a need in the rotation with or without the Steele opening; true power velocity from the right side. I'm still skeptical about how the improved command will continue, if it was a good run, etc...but he's on the 40-man...I'd rather they go this route than the tried and true Drew Smyly experience at this point. We know what that looks like and it doesn't look pretty. Even if Ben Brown isn't always pretty, there's enough upside that on the other days he does, he can look real pretty, and the team can still fall back to Smyly and pull the plug if they feel the necessity. 

[Guest234]

Who is catching the blame for this poor roster constuction? The leash is shortened for Jed.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm not normally someone who puts much stock in Spring Training numbers, but Ben Browns control of his fastball just looked better. Have to agree: it's Ben Brown time. He fits a need in the rotation with or without the Steele opening; true power velocity from the right side. I'm still skeptical about how the improved command will continue, if it was a good run, etc...but he's on the 40-man...I'd rather they go this route than the tried and true Drew Smyly experience at this point. We know what that looks like and it doesn't look pretty. Even if Ben Brown isn't always pretty, there's enough upside that on the other days he does, he can look real pretty, and the team can still fall back to Smyly and pull the plug if they feel the necessity. 

First person I thought of was Brown. I think it has to be him. 

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

They need real upside in their rotation, especially with Steele removed from it.

Why would upside be an overriding factor over expected production in a year where we are all wanting/expecting the team to compete?

Maybe Ben Brown is the best pitcher right now, though given he walked almost 16% of batters he saw last time he pitched in games that mattered I highly doubt it.  

I'd personally go with Wesneski.  The April conditions should mitigate some of his dong problems, which are really the main thing holding him back at this juncture.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It really should be Wesneski, I'm not going to take a handful of innings of Ben Brown not walking ST lineups over his extended problems struggling against AAA hitters as proof he's leapfrogged Hayden in the pecking order.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Guest234 said:

Who is catching the blame for this poor roster constuction? The leash is shortened for Jed.

I don't really know what this means. What team is equipped to replace their ace with anyone besides a 6th starter? There are 24 pitchers projected for over 3 wins. Five teams have more than one of them, including the Cubs. There's not a team in baseball that has an extra Justin Steele lying around to fill into the rotation. 

[CubinNY]

Someone who can limit HRs. 

[CubinNY]

Just now, CubinNY said:

Someone who can limit HRs. 

So not Wesneski. 

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

First person I thought of was Brown. I think it has to be him. 

First person I thought, SMYLY.

I've been typing that name all offseason.

[Jason Ross]

I'd be fine with Wesneski as well, but feel like if we're going to point out Brown's inability to throw his fastball for a strike, it's probably just as fair to point out how bad Wesneski was against LHH last year as a counterpoint. Both had major flaws that got no better throughout the season in 2023. In the end, the Cubs should go with whomever they think has made the most progress in those situations. If they think Wesneski has shown signs of better controlling LHH; go with him. If they think Ben Brown has done a better job progressing with the fastball command, then go with him. Regardless, either are preferable to the Drew Smyly show.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

17 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'd be fine with Wesneski as well, but feel like if we're going to point out Brown's inability to throw his fastball for a strike, it's probably just as fair to point out how bad Wesneski was against LHH last year as a counterpoint. Both had major flaws that got no better throughout the season in 2023. In the end, the Cubs should go with whomever they think has made the most progress in those situations. If they think Wesneski has shown signs of better controlling LHH; go with him. If they think Ben Brown has done a better job progressing with the fastball command, then go with him. Regardless, either are preferable to the Drew Smyly show.

There's a difference in level though.  Wesneski struggled against LHH/with HR at the MLB level, after not having material problems in the high minors.  Brown not only struggled with walks in the high minors but at AAA was worse at getting outs and even giving up HR than Wesneski's AAA time.  There's a two-step of hope with any adjustments we think Brown has made.  It's that he controls his fastball so he not only stops walking so many people but he also stops giving up so many runs at the AAA level, *and* that translates to MLB.  Wesneski doing anything to correct his LHH/HR struggles doesn't have that extra layer of risk given his level and past performance.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm going to continue to assume ben Brown sucks until he stops walking a bajillion people in competitive games 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

There's a difference in level though.  Wesneski struggled against LHP/with HR at the MLB level, after not having material problems in the high minors.  Brown not only struggled with walks in the high minors but at AAA was worse at getting outs and even giving up HR than Wesneski's AAA time.  There's a two-step of hope with any adjustments we think Brown has made.  It's that he controls his fastball so he not only stops walking so many people but he also stops giving up so many runs at the AAA level, *and* that translates to MLB.  Wesneski doing anything to correct his LHP/HR struggles doesn't have that extra layer of risk given his level and past performance.

Which is also fair. But I think we have to remember that Brown was hurt last year and his struggles really amplified after the injury (they're not new though, and I know that, too). As well, 2024 is a new year. The information you and I have to work with is incredibly limited compared to the Cubs. Wesneski and Brown were working on things behind doors for the offseason, and while they're not in full game situations, that data matters to the Cubs as well. It'll help them make that choice. If Ben Brown's fastball command isn't brand new as of two or three weeks ago, that would change the equation here. It's not in-game data, but it's something internally the Cubs would have than I wouldn't. If that fastball progress isn't new...and if Wesneski hasn't made that progress, I'd lean towards Brown. If Wesneski has made progress and Brown's fastball progress was just what it may appear to be...ST magic...go with Wesneski. If they've both made progress...well we all win. 

The Cubs will be in a far more unique situation to analyze that. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Which is also fair. But I think we have to remember that Brown was hurt last year and his struggles really amplified after the injury (they're not new though, and I know that, too). As well, 2024 is a new year. The information you and I have to work with is incredibly limited compared to the Cubs. Wesneski and Brown were working on things behind doors for the offseason, and while they're not in full game situations, that data matters to the Cubs as well. It'll help them make that choice. If Ben Brown's fastball command isn't brand new as of two or three weeks ago, that would change the equation here. It's not in-game data, but it's something internally the Cubs would have than I wouldn't. If that fastball progress isn't new...and if Wesneski hasn't made that progress, I'd lean towards Brown. If Wesneski has made progress and Brown's fastball progress was just what it may appear to be...ST magic...go with Wesneski. If they've both made progress...well we all win. 

The Cubs will be in a far more unique situation to analyze that. 

The walk rate(and ERA) did get worse after he came back from injury and was in the pen, but the comparative struggles were of a similar magnitude beforehand.  At AAA prior to his injury he had a 4.85 ERA, 5.54 BB/9, and 1.25 HR/9.

[squally1313]

Most of this hinges on the expected time frame for Steele's recovery, but I think given that the next open start is Colorado (who sucks) at home, you let Wesneski take that one (and maybe let Smyly open to get through Blackmon/Jones/McMahon once). If he can't handle a Colorado lineup in April in Chicago (seeing a high of 41 and potentially snow on Wednesday), then you stretch Smyly out and give him a shot. While both of those guys get a shot, you're giving Brown a few starts in AAA to force his way up. 

[Jason Ross]

39 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The walk rate(and ERA) did get worse after he came back from injury and was in the pen, but the comparative struggles were of a similar magnitude beforehand.  At AAA prior to his injury he had a 4.85 ERA, 5.54 BB/9, and 1.25 HR/9.

Also true. I initially wondered a bit if Ben Brown struggled with the transition from the Southern League pre-tacked baseball back to a traditionally tacked baseball which could have caused some initial command issues. but I'll admit that's not backed up by a ton of data. Brown really didn't pitch a ton in Tennessee, and he struggled for around his first 32.1 IP in Triple-A before he settled in a bit more. He showed improvement after, dropping his BB% by around 1% prior to his injury over his next 26.2 innings, but that's not a huge gain. As well, checking out Southern League data, walks decreased by 1% once the baseball was changed, so the league as a whole didn't really struggle. Combined, I think my initial hypotheses as best would be "seems pretty unlikely". 

I just come back to in the end, the Cubs have a lot more information over the last five months and the situation could have changed. On paper, what Brown offers (right handed velocity) is something the rotation is severely lacking and his ST showcased in small samples that the fastball command would appear to have made a jump. But with that, it could be a case of a good showing and something the Cubs haven't been seeing in bullpen sessions and practice, or apart of a greater trend. It's probably also just hopeful wishing on my end, too.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Pitchers spontaneously developing control is a real thing, it's not implausible.  

[JBears79]

Give it to Cade Horton you cowards

[LBiittner]

Maybe we can revisit the offseason and trade wesneski for Glasnow like some here suggested???

[chopsx9]

1 hour ago, JBears79 said:

Give it to Cade Horton you cowards

Do it!  My last draft pick in my keeper league.

[Cubs420psd]

On 3/29/2024 at 9:14 AM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It really should be Wesneski, I'm not going to take a handful of innings of Ben Brown not walking ST lineups over his extended problems struggling against AAA hitters as proof he's leapfrogged Hayden in the pecking order.

Yeah but Hayden sucks so.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

oh good point I hadn't considered that