Sleepers, Keepers, and Weepers 2024

[CubinNY]

We are a week away from the start of the big league season and a few more from the minor league season. 
 

Who in your opinion is set to have a breakout (sleeper), who is currently not on the “I want to hang on to this guy” list that will be (keeper), and who is going to fall off the prospect radar (weeper).

I’m not a prospect expert so I’m really looking forward to what others think. 
 

My sleeper: Davis - he’s fallen off the top 30 due to health. He’s going to mash AAA. 

My keeper: Pablo Aliendo - put on a lot of muscle this offseason. He’s a future big league catcher. 

My Weeper: Christian Hernandez. Too much swing problems. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hitters

Sleeper: Josh Rivera - Took a bit to adjust to pro ball(.176/.246/.314 first 14 pro games), but he turned it on(.346/.404/.577 final 14 games) and was playing like he needed to be in AA.  SS defense keeps the floor low enough to be a reachable bar for prospect legitimacy

Keeper: Carter Trice - They slow played his post-draft path by not putting him with an affiliate, but he can really hit, and if he can take to catching at all he's gonna be well worth hanging on to

Weeper: James Triantos - AA is where you start paying the price for a bad approach/swing decisions, and it's also where we may find out he's a LF/DH prospect defensively.

 

Pitchers

Sleeper: Brandon Birdsell - Look at the K%-BB% leaders among Cubs SP prospects, and it's mostly names you know(Wicks, Horton, Ferris, Brown) and Birdsell right there with them.  The velo + control is a really good foundation to work with since through pitch dev or gameplanning they can likely minimize some other imperfections(HR tendencies), or at a minimum be a leverage RP prospect.

Keeper: Jaxon Wiggins - probably a cop out pick, but I think there's a real chance of a near-Horton like breakout now that he's healthy

Weeper: Michael Arias - Kinda insane prospect helium(45+ grade on Fangraphs, 14th on Pipeline) for a guy who can barely keep his BB% below 15 against A-ball hitters 

[Post Count Padder]

Gonna avoid using anyone previously mentioned.

Hitters:

Sleeper: Chris Paciolla. He gets overlooked and something tells me he's gonna break out. 

Keeper: BJ Murray. I think there's a real chance he gets MLB at bats this year and barring an acquisition or a Morel defensive facelift, has a chance to take meaningful innings at 3B next season.

Weeper: Reggie Preciado. No one else in that trade has shown up. It's all on Caissie now.

 

Pitchers:

Sleeper: Richard Gallardo. I've been high on this guy awhile and think he'll handle AA pretty well.

Keeper: Nazier Mule. I'm so intrigued by his athleticism and everything we heard about him pre-surgery.

Weeper: Kohl Franklin. The stuff is there but he's never gotten results. Coming off a FIP over 6 in AA and is Rule 5 eligible. It's a true make-or-break season and I think he's out of the organization this time next year.

Edited March 16, 2024 by Post Count Padder

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm pretty sure I had mentally combined Carico and Trice into one person in my description.  I'd go with Carico too.

[craig]

Carico >>> Trice in my book.  Trice learning a new position.  Trice is a K-factory.  

[craig]

Carico K% in college:  12%.     Trice 34%

Trice faced better pitching for sure, but not what he'll see consistently in pros.  Most high-K guys in college have contact problems in pros.  Many guys who do not have contact problems in college will in the pros, so it's not like Carico is safe either.  We'll see. 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Trice's K% was never that high.  By season it was 23% and 24% as a Fresh/Soph at Old Dominion, and then 25% as a junior at NC State: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=trice-000car

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Trice's K% was never that high.  By season it was 23% and 24% as a Fresh/Soph at Old Dominion, and then 25% as a junior at NC State: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=trice-000car

I know nothing about this guy. Did he get platooned last year? He played a lot of games but his PA went way down from previous seasons.

[Jason Ross]

Cool concept! I'll play along:

Hitters: 

Sleeper: Chris Paciolla. Reports were that the Cubs loved this guy out of HS and they've done a good job identifying bats. Call it a deeper cut, but I've got a good feeling here. I know he didn't crush the CPX...it's more "gut" than anything.

Keeper: Pedro Ramirez. Posted a 119 wRC+ in Myrtle Beach as a 19 year old. Not very big, but has an advanced plate approach already. Really underrated bat here, and I could see him continuing to hit at the next levels. He's not a superstar, but there's an MLB bat here and he's not on many top-30s. By the end of the season, I think he's a top-20 prospect in the organization. 

Weeper: Josh Rivera: I wasn't a huge fan of this pick at the time. I really wasn't a major fan of his profile as a third. I hope he proves me wrong, but I just don't think there's a ton to be excited about overall.

 

Pitchers: 

Sleeper: Porter Hodge. The stuff here, and the arm slot, is so, so, so funky. With even a bit of control (which the Cubs coaxed out of Palencia and Little) there's a leverage righty killer here. He's on the 40-man and he could see innings in Chicago. Honorable mention to Naz Mule who should return and be a pitcher only. He's got a lot of Tink Hence in him...but probably a year early.

Keeper: Jaxson Wiggins: reports were really impressive in the fall , he's a Ty Nichols guy, and the stuff is huge. I think he's going to be really nice. 

Weeper: Michael Arias the SP. I just don't think he's got enough time to get there. There's a route to being a RHP out of the bullpen, but I just don't think he's going to make it as a SP. There's not an obvious "weeper" for me, so this is the best I've got.

[Hrubes20]

Hitters

Sleeper: I would have said Zyhir Hope 😔 .  I will go with Angel Cepeda.  

Keeper: Josh Rivera

Weeper: Alexander Canario

Pitchers

Sleeper: Nazier Mule

Keeper: Drew Gray

Weeper: Michael Arias

 

[Bertz]

It's hard to do this without doubling up on anyone but among names that aren't discussed a ton I'm high on Christian Franklin and Drew Gray and low on basically every hitter slated to open the year at Myrtle Beach.

[Outshined_One]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Honorable mention to Nazi Mule who should return and be a pitcher only.

Yikes to that nickname.

Maybe we should officially shorten it to Naz?

[Jason Ross]

41 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Yikes to that nickname.

Maybe we should officially shorten it to Naz?

Oh horsefeathers. In my head that was "Naz-ee".  At no point did my brain read Nazi. horsefeathers. 

[Outshined_One]

Do I buy Rivera as a potential All Star caliber bat? Nope.

Do I buy him as a potential utility guy who can be a supersub type and can provide positive contributions off the bench? Yep.

[Jason Ross]

So I guess I'll clarify my Josh Rivera stance: he's just not the kind of prospect I want with the slot/position that the Cubs had. While utility players have value. I prefer not taking utility player-upside because if they fall short, then the next rung down on the ladder is organizational depth. With assuming that most prospects won't hit their upside...it's why I have some concern. I don't love his profile, and think both body size and bat are questionable; I'm not sure he'll hit well enough to be a viable 3b, not sure he's twitchy enough to be a 2b...

No shade at anyone who likes Rivera, either. I know he's got his supporters out there. Todd Johnson spoke glowingly of him on draft day. I certainly hope to be wrong, but profile wise, he's not who I gravitate too. This is more opinion/cup-of-tea thing, and so I listed him as my "weeper" in the sense that I just don't think he's going to be a guy who's going to find his way onto top-20 lists at the end of the season, despite making the NSBB fan-ranked one.

[craig]

On 3/18/2024 at 7:39 AM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Trice's K% was never that high.  By season it was 23% and 24% as a Fresh/Soph at Old Dominion, and then 25% as a junior at NC State: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=trice-000car

Oops!  My apology, and my very bad error!  I was looking bbcube, but the 34% was his teensy-sample Low-minors states.  He was 23%, 24%, and 25% during his 3 college seasons  

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/232980/

[craig]

18 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

...Whether a real ML prospect or not is neither here nor there for the Cubs’ purposes of that pick since a senior underslot is a standard top 10 round move. ....

...As a non-first underslot out of a name program who kinda already served a purpose for the org I already see him more in the mold of players like Jake Slaughter (LSU), Andy Weber (Virginia), Levi Jordan (UNC?) that have helped affiliates win some championships and create a competitive environment 

I don't know what he'll become, and your underslot reasoning is excellent.  But I do think from the Cubs view, getting a ML prospect with a 3rd round $725K guy is definitely their purpose.  Don't think they are spending $725K and 3rd rounder to get Levi Jordan organizational guys.  Who knows what he'll turn into, I surely don't.  But pretty sure they thought his senior-year hitting had a chance to reflect a guy who'll hit as a pro.  

[craig]

Nice discussion here, guys.  Interesting to read your thoughts and names.  As mentioned, a lot of names have already been suggested, so kinda hard to come up with new.  But:

Bats:

Sleeper:  Kalmer

Keeper:  Vasquez

Weeper:  McGeary

Pitchers:

Sleeper:  Sanders, Koen Moreno, Hunter Bigge

Keeper:  Luis Rujano, Birdsell

Weeper:  Nobody!  Everybody is going to thrive and improve!!!!  It's the Cubs!

[Jason Ross]

10 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

He is, at least nominally like so many others, a prospect. One doesn’t start for three years for a perennial CWS contender at SS, hit for power before the draft, become the top rated senior in the draft, and not clear the prospect bar. It’s just not all that realistic to expect a third round pick in the MLB draft, after a slot and +$1.5 million overslot first and second no less, to be moar. All the Cubs can do is have good processes with each pick and look to have a good draft on the whole.

I’ll throw out another sleeper from this draft: RHP Luis Martinez-Gomez. He’s another 20 YO college draftee up to 97 showing 4 pitches including a split-change, played both ways on the JC circuit (running a 30+% K rate on the mound while hitting .338/.392/.507 with an 11% K rate for San Bernadino JC). He only became a full time pitcher summer 2022 at 19, did really well, would fit right in this thread 

Well, I'll say this: he wasn't very good until his senior year. So while I appreciate he started for three years, two of them he simply wasn't an MLB draft prospect. And I want to say this as well: I appreciate he made changes to his game to stand out his senior year. But my issue is taken less with who he played for, how often he started, and the changes, but his projection as a prospect and the juice in the squeeze. If you see more juice in the squeeze, I can't disagree at this stage; we're like one month into his professional career and there's little I think anyone can point to, to change anyone's pre-draft opinion on Rivera. Personally, I see someone who doesn't really project at the quick-twitch positions and likely doesn't have the bat at the corners. Like I said...if you see differently, fair! But there's little today that's going to change how I see him. Much like I think today, there'd be little reason to change someone elses' opinion (none of this is really designed to!). But it's why I have him as a weeper in this exercise...I had to find someone, and Rivera fits that bill more than others for me,

And if we want to discuss slot and the like, the Cubs went over slot with their fourth pick, Will Sanders and their 7th pick Yahil Melendez. No shade on them either, they're fine picks in their own right, but there were options available to the Cubs that wasn't Josh Rivera and how they divided their slot. Overall, I really liked the 2023 draft, I think the Cubs found a lot of value and upside. Rivera just wasn't a "me" guy in the third. I'll be rooting for Rivera to succeed...any time I don't like someone and I'm wrong about that...well we all win.

[Jason Ross]

53 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That’s pretty also fine, or at least within the realm, on a third round pick who signed for well underslot. If you want a shot at a pristine resume and the more or less obvious ceiling of an impact starter then shoot the shot in the first round. Not only is that guy more likely to exist at all but a FO is in a better position to spend the money.

Ftr I generally *agree* with you on his ML prospects, have more or less explicitly said that twice already in this thread! My criticism is the all tree no forest approach to evaluating him as a non first draft selection, a different animal. Getting the kind of player it seems you believe they woulda coulda shoulda had in the third costs more money if he exists at all. In the bonus pool + Kantrovitz era that would alter the entire strategy behind the whole draft for a likely mediocre attempt to hit a big HR with specifically a mid-third for some reason

They went overslot on Wiggins, Sanders, Melendez, and took a $250K pool hit to sign Zyhir Hope outside the first ten. The savings on Rivera’s slot alone covered all but a few thousand dollars of the difference for signing Sanders and Melendez (which isn’t an invitation to only focus on those two). They’ve already traded Hope for a likely multi-year starter at 1B or DH. 

Like I said: I have a similar bone to pick with the Shaw pick. If the draft was all about straight talent all the time I’d have taken Thomas White and ran. That desire doesn’t really blind me to Shaw’s merits relative to alternatives, the relative wisdom of going with a first round college bat, or the domino effect that had to putting together an excellent draft within the rules Cubs ownership helped put in place 

I feel as though were other options in the third that I would have preferred, yes. I probably would have preferred someone like Nolan McLean, who got similar slot. No worries if that's not anyone else's choice; I like his bat more. Less versatility etc. Personal preference type stuff. I truly don't think I'm being blind here, as stated, Rivera has utility upside, he's just not my type. It's personal preference, not hate.

Also when I was mentioning the juice/.squeeze it was less related directly to you and in general. I think disagreeing on personal prospect preference is the name of the game, truly. A lot of it comes down to what we individually see and like and hope for. In the end, the Cubs get a lot of benefit of the doubt. Danny K is a great drafter and if the Cubs liked Rivera more than, say, McLean...that's cool. I'm just going to keep Rivera as my weeper regardless and pretend I'm smarter, even though, in the end, I know I'm not!

[sneakypower]

sleeper – CFranklin, Wiggins

keeper – ARosario, Devers

weeper – McGeary, Howard, Davis, KFranklin, Pinango, Preciado, PCA

[JBears79]

Hitters

Sleeper: Christian Franklin, like what I saw from him in ST, he hits the ball hard and has a good eye, could see a BJ Murray type breakout from him

Keeper: BJ Murray, I definitely see him contributing this year on the big league team

Weeper: Brennen Davis, just cant see him staying healthy and concussions always tend to linger, hope im wrong

 

Pitchers

Sleeper: Drew Grey, think this is the year he breaks out as a legit prospect

Keeper: Brandon Birdsell, love his pitch mix and I think he contributes this year

Weeper: Kohl Franklin, love the stuff but he cant throw strikes to save his life. 

[craig]

Tom, to go back to the Rivera discussion.  He got $725K, so obviously we shouldn't assume stardom.  But that's more than guys like Sanders, Hope, Carico, Rosario, Melendez; Birdsell; Franklin; Luke Little, all guys drafted with hopes that they'd turn into major league contributors.  Definitely drafted for more than minor-league roster-fill.  

1908, my impression is that his defense is very good.  Good enough for big-league SS, or 2B, or 3B.  *IF* he can hit enough to be a major leaguer, his defense will be an asset, especially if serving in a utility role.  

So yeah, Tom, as you said he was and should be viewed as a prospect.  Might become a major leaguer, but no compelling expectation that he should become an excellent one.  *IF* he was to turn into a good big-league utility guy, but never an asset starter, that would hardly profile as a "fail" pick.   And if he never reaches the majors at all, most 3rd-rounders or sub-million guys never do.  

I do think old senior-signs are especially vulnerable to "weeper".  Rivera will turn 24 before the World Series.  Teen picks like Paciola, Rosario, Melendez, they get a couple of years to try to figure it out.  But if Rivera can't hit this year, he won't get much leash to remain viewed as a prospect. 

 

[Post Count Padder]

Sorry, based on other threads and posts I'm obviously gonna have to change my weeper to PCA. Dude sucks.