Is it time to trade Bellinger?

[soccer10k]

5 hours ago, squally1313 said:

And in that 7 week sample (since 4/26, 7 Fridays ago), the Cubs bullpen is:

• 17th in fWAR
• 3rd in K rate
• 23rd in BB rate
• 26th in ERA
• 19th in FIP
• 13th in xFIP

Great? No. Terrible? No. Seemingly very unlucky? Yes. Likely to be improved by two guys who walk a bunch of dudes? Probably not.

If they’re 26th in ERA, they’ve been terrible. We can discuss how they got there and whether that’s likely to continue going forward based on peripherals. That maybe they’ve been unlucky doesn’t take those runs allowed off the board.

[squally1313]

12 hours ago, soccer10k said:

If they’re 26th in ERA, they’ve been terrible. We can discuss how they got there and whether that’s likely to continue going forward based on peripherals. That maybe they’ve been unlucky doesn’t take those runs allowed off the board.

Sure, that’s fair. I meant not terrible in the way you’d say like, Chris morel hasn’t been terrible, though the actual results have been. The runs definitely happened, can’t do anything about those, the advanced stats suggest it won’t happen at that rate going forward. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

On 6/14/2024 at 8:31 AM, squally1313 said:

There are some insane arguments being made there in search of a pre-determined conclusion. The Phillies were elite, but then they couldn't hit. The Dodgers are elite, but then they got (uniquely, I guess) depleted. Arizona only made it because the Cubs collapsed (which is...an argument against the Cubs trying to make the playoffs?). Pointing to 6 games, where they went 3-3 total, but ignoring that and just looking at the vibes of it all to write off a season. Like....just don't watch, man. Sure, they might keep sucking. I don't know why we're so excited to make that more likely to happen. The Cubs got the best hitter traded last year for DJ Herz (2 starts for Washington, 6.50 ERA, has a walk rate above 5 at every single level dating back to high A in 2022) and Kevin Made (like 300 PAs in high A hitting .200 with zero home runs). God forbid we give up guys like that again in search of playing meaningful baseball the rest of the year. 

DJ Herz update: 6 shutout innings yesterday with 13 K’s

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

DJ Herz update: 6 shutout innings yesterday with 13 K’s

It was a great start. And for his sake, super happy for him! However entering the game, he had walked 39 hitters in 44 innings over the season at all levels. I don't think he magically learned control last night, and it's almost assuredly his high water mark. DJ Herz remains the same walk printer he's been over the years. There's still some hope, but his cross-body mechanics will cause consistency issues. When he finds the groove like he did yesterday, he can be really good. But I'd expect him to never repeat that kind of a start, and still see him as someone who's not really an MLB arm until he can show any ability to consistently throw strikes.

This feels very akin to when people were hand-wringing after they dealt Velazquez last year at the deadline. His 130 wRC+ looked very much like an outlier data point and he's followed it up with an 85 wRC+ in 2024. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It was a great start. And for his sake, super happy for him! However entering the game, he had walked 39 hitters in 44 innings over the season at all levels. I don't think he magically learned control last night, and it's almost assuredly his high water mark. DJ Herz remains the same walk printer he's been over the years. There's still some hope, but his cross-body mechanics will cause consistency issues. When he finds the groove like he did yesterday, he can be really good. But I'd expect him to never repeat that kind of a start, and still see him as someone who's not really an MLB arm until he can show any ability to consistently throw strikes.

This feels very akin to when people were hand-wringing after they dealt Velazquez last year at the deadline. His 130 wRC+ looked very much like an outlier data point and he's followed it up with an 85 wRC+ in 2024. 

Definitely agree, just think its a little early to decide if the trade was a win one way or the other. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Definitely agree, just think its a little early to decide if the trade was a win one way or the other. 

I don't think it can be a "loss". Herz simply wasn't getting a chance with the Chicago Cubs. He was Rule V eligible and I don't think the Cubs would have carted him around.  Considering the Nationals traded for him, I'd guess someone would have picked him in it. The last thing the team needs currently is an arm who throws more walks than they already have. I'm really happy for him that he got a shot in Washington, but I don't think he's going to stick around long term unless something drastically changes in his profile and his ability to command pitches. Over the course of 2024, he's throwing almost 20% non-competitive strikes across both levels: one MLB pitcher (Stroman) is above his 19.7% he's had on the full year. We've seen what Little, Palencia, Cuas, and the rest of the Cubs arms have done when they throw 80% competitive strikes.

For Herz's sake, he seems like a fine dude and he's worked hard to get here so I'm rooting for him in whatever organization he's in. If he gets it right, it was almost always going to be in another organization because it's going to be something that needs time. Clearly when things work right he's a really good arm. But he's all over the place. He walked five in the previous eight innings in the majors and walked 19% of hitters in Triple-A. I think it's going to be a real process for him if he ever gets there. The Cubs got the best hitter at the deadline (even if it didn't work out for Candelario or the Cubs' playoff chances) for him and Made (who's been bad in his own right). They probably have a handful of starters and relievers who are either in the same vein (good stuff, spotty control) or are already ahead of him. So godspeed to Herz in Washington, but I think the Cubs and he will both be fine elsewhere.

 

[WhyCantWeWin]

7 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I don't think it can be a "loss". Herz simply wasn't getting a chance with the Chicago Cubs. He was Rule V eligible and I don't think the Cubs would have carted him around.  Considering the Nationals traded for him, I'd guess someone would have picked him in it. The last thing the team needs currently is an arm who throws more walks than they already have. I'm really happy for him that he got a shot in Washington, but I don't think he's going to stick around long term unless something drastically changes in his profile and his ability to command pitches. Over the course of 2024, he's throwing almost 20% non-competitive strikes across both levels: one MLB pitcher (Stroman) is above his 19.7% he's had on the full year. We've seen what Little, Palencia, Cuas, and the rest of the Cubs arms have done when they throw 80% competitive strikes.

For Herz's sake, he seems like a fine dude and he's worked hard to get here so I'm rooting for him in whatever organization he's in. If he gets it right, it was almost always going to be in another organization because it's going to be something that needs time. Clearly when things work right he's a really good arm. But he's all over the place. He walked five in the previous eight innings in the majors and walked 19% of hitters in Triple-A. I think it's going to be a real process for him if he ever gets there. The Cubs got the best hitter at the deadline (even if it didn't work out for Candelario or the Cubs' playoff chances) for him and Made (who's been bad in his own right). They probably have a handful of starters and relievers who are either in the same vein (good stuff, spotty control) or are already ahead of him. So godspeed to Herz in Washington, but I think the Cubs and he will both be fine elsewhere.

 

Which is an indictment on the talent evaluation of the hoyer regime. Cuas, Little, Alzolay, Neris and etc. have been trash and they definitely could have carved out a 40 man spot if they wanted to, its clear they viewed him as a reliever similar with what they did with Cease.

Dont see how a good pitcher succeeding elsewhere should be considered not a loss just because the FO didnt evaluate him correctly. once again im not crowning him after one really good mlb start as i do recognize he has some really ugly walk numbers in the minors, just think its too soon to say he sucks just because he didn’t dominate his first 2 starts. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's not his first 2 starts, DJ Herz has been unable to throw strikes and (partially as a result) show any sort of length as a starter his entire career.  In the lower levels he was able to overpower enough hitters to stay out of trouble but we already saw that start to fade in AAA(K-BB% way down, FIP of 4.70, etc).  Him having a single excellent start against the worst offense in baseball is not evidence of any sort of talent evaluation failure.  Herz is almost certainly a reliever.  He might be a good one, and if so that's the gamble you take when you trade a AA pitcher in order to get a quality player at the deadline.  But 'maybe if things go right and he stops walking so many he's a good reliever' is an extremely common profile, and one that front offices should be extremely willing to trade if it helps them make a useful addition.

[Jason Ross]

6 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Which is an indictment on the talent evaluation of the hoyer regime. Cuas, Little, Alzolay, Neris and etc. have been trash and they definitely could have carved out a 40 man spot if they wanted to, its clear they viewed him as a reliever similar with what they did with Cease.

Dont see how a good pitcher succeeding elsewhere should be considered not a loss just because the FO didnt evaluate him correctly. once again im not crowning him after one really good mlb start as i do recognize he has some really ugly walk numbers in the minors, just think its too soon to say he sucks just because he didn’t dominate his first 2 starts. 

I don't think DJ Herz is necessarily better than any of those players and I don't blame Hoyer for not keeping him over them. At the deadline, Cuas looked for more likely to be an MLB player. The issues he's had since coming to Chicago are mainly new (the walks). I get everyone hates Cuas because he kind of sucked here, but Cuas had some interesting things to him and for whatever reason, it just didn't work. He was far more MLB ready last deadline than Herz was. Alzolay was really good last year; he's bad this year because he's hurt. That's not Hoyer's problem, that's just what happens. Neris...Neris had some underlying things I wrote about being worried about. He also has a fairly long track record of being a useful MLB reliever. It was far more likely Neris was useful to the Cubs this year than Herz. They also didn't really choose Neris over Herz...Herz was gone. I think they would haven chosen him regardless, but that's because one has a track record of MLB success and the other walks a ton of guys in the minors. Hoyer is a bit of a punching bag right now, and in many ways, he probably deserves it. Trading Herz, a double-a pitcher with walk issues over keeping Alzolay and signing Hector Neris, isn't it, though. 

With that said, Herz profiles as a version of Luke Little without a 98mph fastball. He has similar mechanical inconsistency which creates lots of non-competitive pitches. He isn't a starter long term in profile Yes. He had one magical start, but let's be real, that's an outlier based on his entire career. He's more likely a middle reliever with some possibility of ending up in an 8th inning role if he can solve that (despite the lack of a 98mph fastball his stuff is clearly good) but so far in his career he hasn't. He was walking 1 in 5 hitters in Triple-A and 5 in 8 innings as an MLB pitcher...we know he didn't wake up and just know how to throw strikes.

If Herz is successful that's the price of doing business. The Cubs have plenty of "guys with stuff who can't throw strikes". Drew Gray, Michael Arias, Luke Little, Daniel Palencia...we can play this game over and over. (The Cubs bullpen has been playing this game all season. The last thing it needs is more walks.) The Cubs were fighting for the playoffs and they spent one of them, who was in Double-A, who they didn't seem overly likely to Rule V protect, to get better last year. If you weren't going to protect him, and he was likely to be taken, then get what you can. They did in the form of the best available hitter (at the time) for a playoff push. You can't lose there. It's a small cost overall. If Herz eventually becomes a reliever, that's fine. The Cubs shouldn't have problems drafting and finding more "stuff" guys who struggle with strike throwing in the draft, it's not an uncommon profile. There will always be DJ Herz's in the system. Most of them will never throw enough strikes to be good, and a few of them will break out. For Herz's sake I hope he's one of them, for the Cubs' sake I don't think it's a bad idea to use those as trade bait.

[imb]

as far as what we need to do at the deadline or what we will do, there's probably multiple acceptable options you could convince me are the right move. Make a big trade to get a star, sure ok. Make some smaller trades because we're not *that* far off, you don't sell off the future and we can sneak into the playoffs and maybe get lucky, sounds good. Sell off half the team and start over. Yeah for sure.

The bigger thing is ... this team stinks. "They almost made the playoffs before cratering last year! They were good to start the year before injuries kicked our ass!." Every single offensive player has either stunk this year or has red flags (Busch K rate, Suzuki injury prone, Morel defense.) There's not one difference maker on offense. But that's to be expected because Jed built a defense-first team ... oh the defense has been ass all year too.

The starting pitching has been a bright spot for sure. But good starting pitching only lasts for a brief period because of health, and you really have to get lucky and marry your healthy starting pitching window to your good offense/bullpen window to truly be a winning team. This team is so far from a functional offense that by the time you build one the starting pitching will likely not the diamond in the rough it has been this year. 

Compound that by the fact that none of the prospects look like difference makers at all. Not to boxscore scout here but one thing we've learned in the last couple of years is that the jump from AAA to the majors is bigger than maybe ever. These other teams are bringing their 1.000 OPS top 10 prospects up to the majors and they all fail. What level of confidence does anyone have that Shaw, Alcantara, Caissie, etc, are anything more than Wisdom, Happ and Suzuki, because we've seen what those guys get us.

Jed has built a mid team that can't even reach that level. No matter what we do at the deadline, he has to go, he's not built for this. And if he goes, whoever comes in is gonna gut this mess anyway. 

[Cuzi]

56 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m not regretting trading Herz, similar to how I don’t lament Paredes for Wilson, but man does the whole “Cubs traded for the best available hitter at the TDL” storyline with Candelario sound so Cub. They sit out on HoFer after HoFer, make one move to still miss the 8682959583 team playoff, and I keep having to hear how like earnest a move it was, that they went after The Best….And like “technically” it’s “true,” at least their asses are covered, and I get more and more and more and more grossed out by this somehow more than ever contrived corporate reality we’re being forced into 

I'm in the same boat. I give no credit to this team for "trading for the best hitter available." The best hitter was taken off the market because the team he played for went on a little winning streak just before the deadline and decided to change their plan and become "buyers." The hitter being Cody Bellinger and team being the Cubs. The entire idea of signing Bellinger to a rebuilding value/flip contract went out the window for Jeimer freaking Candelario, who naturally got injured, hit for 106 wRC+, and was worth a whopping 0.2 fWAR and the Cubs missed the playoffs.

Edited June 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[731.4life]

The DJ Herz stuff is nonsense. Not every trade has to be a "win" trade for the Cubs and if it doesn't, then fire Jed. As good as DJ was against Miami over the weekend, let's keep in mind it's the Miami Marlins offense we're talking about. Herz was  never going to get an opportunity in Chicago, and the front office felt like they would lose him to another team if he wasn't on the 40-man at the end of the season.

Theo made one bad trade. That stuff happens for GM's. No one should be losing sleep because of DJ Herz. Meanwhile, credit to DJ for making the most of his opportunity in Washington.

[Tryptamine]

The Orioles are looking to replace Mullins who is struggling for the 2nd straight season. Obviously Holliday/Basallo/Mayo/Kjerstad are off the table and most likely so are Bradfield and Povich. The most optimistic scenario would involve Norby, but the Cubs would have to eat a lot of money and I'm still not sure it's realistic.  In the more realistic tiers you have Jud Fabian, Dylan Beavers and Chayce McDermott.  Even ignoring the Cub OF blockage,  I'd still prefer McDermott here. Lots of reliever risk, but the stuff is good, while the control is not. Outside of that you could additionally probably get a lottery ticket in the 15-25 range.

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m not regretting trading Herz, similar to how I don’t lament Paredes for Wilson, but man does the whole “Cubs traded for the best available hitter at the TDL” storyline with Candelario sound so Cub. They sit out on HoFer after HoFer, make one move to still miss the 8682959583 team playoff, and I keep having to hear how like earnest a move it was, that they went after The Best….And like “technically” it’s “true,” at least their asses are covered, and I get more and more and more and more grossed out by this somehow more than ever contrived corporate reality we’re being forced into 

Listen, I'd have loved to have gotten Soto. I argued they should have been more in on him this offseason and I'll agree with you it'd have been really great to get him last TDL. How feasible that is, we don't know. The Padres aren't the "pack it in" kind of a team (especially, looking back on things, with how the owner's health was I'm sure there was a human element of wanting to see the Padres succeed for him), and if we look how they handled the Soto trade this offseason, we can see they prioritized a near-MLB-ready arm in Thorpe, who they used to parlay into Dylan Cease. I suspect the Padres, even if they could have been convinced to deal Soto at the deadline last year, would have prioritized near MLB ready talent and how likely teams were to trade those talents mid-season is hard to tell. Teams generally don't like doing that with no succession plan ready in case of injury. 

I know there's always the "well just offer them a deal too good to say no to!" or "whatever, just do it anyways!: but then we start to get into really far fetched-hypotheticals and what-ifs. It's very easy to just say "well make it happen" but there are a lot of moving parts. In the end, all we know is that Juan Soto wasn't dealt at the deadline and the reasoning behind that (whether it was a SD decision or a rest-of-the-league decision) really isn't able to be known. 

I agree, Jeimer Candelario isn't like, very exciting. And when Candelario is the best bat traded, it says as much about the Cubs as it does the rest of the market; I get it.

[imb]

4 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

 the 26 YO prbly best non-Trout CF in the sport is going to be available, on a friendly contract 

who are we talking about here

[mul21]

20 minutes ago, imb said:

who are we talking about here

Luis Robert since Tom only speaks in code.

[chibears55]

Dodgers need a SS, trade them Swanson for some of their young talent 😏😏

[LBiittner]

Yankers need a firstbaseman.

Belli plays a good firstbase.

Let's trade him for someone who could surface around 2027. How about carlos Lagrange? He might fit jeds timeline and then give all of us prospect huggers hope towards the latter part of this decade.

[Tryptamine]

I'm having a hard time placing a value on Bellinger. I think it's probably 50/50 at this point if he opts out. If he doesn't opt out, I'm not sure he has positive value at all. If he does opt out he has decent value. Maybe a 45 guy. Depending on how much the Cubs eat, it make bring a good secondary piece too.

[LBiittner]

Yeah I probably aimed too high with Lagrange. 

And then after posting this I read Trip as well as Matt's article

Edited June 24, 2024 by LBiittner

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Yeah I probably aimed too high with Lagrange. 

And then after posting this I read Trip as well as Matt's article

Yeah, the truth is they really don’t have much to sell. They are just in a bad spot. If they only better it will be just a lost season without them even having anything to sell for any real value. I don’t see them trading controlled guys for lower level prospects. I know everyone wants to see Happ, Suzuki, Nico, Swanson or even Morel traded because they have this belief we have better waiting in the minors. But in truth all that does is push the rebuild back more years. And we all know this is not a rebuild…… (sure it’s not). I think the Cubs will most likely do very little at the deadline. Just play the season out. Don’t expect much from them, but I don’t see anything major coming or going. Just a very terrible spot to be in. Maybe it will be so bad that they will have to do something with the FO. But I wouldn’t bet on it because I am not sure TR wants to hire someone who might actually want to spend money to win. 

[chibears55]

I guess the good thing about this offseason is that they don't need to focus much on SP and they can put most of their focus on acquiring bats.

Imanaga Steele and Taillon under contract along with all the young guys under team control. 

Swanson 5/137 left on deal will be the only position player hard to move, so they can actually rebuild the entire positional roster from scratch over the next couple seasons if they choose.

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

I guess the good thing about this offseason is that they don't need to focus much on SP and they can put most of their focus on acquiring bats.

Imanaga Steele and Taillon under contract along with all the young guys under team control. 

Swanson 5/137 left on deal will be the only position player hard to move, so they can actually rebuild the entire positional roster from scratch over the next couple seasons if they choose.

I'm already hoping for one more vet starter, due to attrition. A closer. A trade for a catcher with balls in his sack. An actual 3rdbaseman, that can field and  hit.

I'm not asking for much, I know

[Cuzi]

4 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I guess the good thing about this offseason is that they don't need to focus much on SP and they can put most of their focus on acquiring bats.

Imanaga Steele and Taillon under contract along with all the young guys under team control. 

Swanson 5/137 left on deal will be the only position player hard to move, so they can actually rebuild the entire positional roster from scratch over the next couple seasons if they choose.

LOL.

"If they choose." As if rebuilding the entire roster is even an option on the table. This roster will be largely unchanged for the better part of the next 3 seasons. They've avoided committing to a legit 3B to leave it open for Shaw. They committed to Busch at 1B. 2B and SS is plugged up for 3 seasons. LF and RF is plugged up for 3 seasons. CF is up to what Bellinger decides to do. Literally just talking about finding a catcher and a DH.

About the only thing shocking I could see happening from a position player stand point would be if Bellinger doesn't opt out, then the Cubs trading PCA for something that enhances this 3 year corner Jed has backed himself into.

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

LOL.

"If they choose." As if rebuilding the entire roster is even an option on the table. This roster will be largely unchanged for the better part of the next 3 seasons. They've avoided committing to a legit 3B to leave it open for Shaw. They committed to Busch at 1B. 2B and SS is plugged up for 3 seasons. LF and RF is plugged up for 3 seasons. CF is up to what Bellinger decides to do. Literally just talking about finding a catcher and a DH.

About the only thing shocking I could see happening from a position player stand point would be if Bellinger doesn't opt out, then the Cubs trading PCA for something that enhances this 3 year corner Jed has backed himself into.

Over the next 2 seasons,  2025 and 2026 

C. Amaya  he could bring traded, sent down or released, he not Arb eligible until 2027..

1B. Busch Earliest Arb Eligible: 2027, he can be sent down, or traded by then if they choose.

2B. Hoerner under contract 2 more yrs, can be traded before.

3B. Morel can be traded, Arb starts 2026

LF Happ under contract 2 more urs, can be traded before

CF Bellinger  he can be traded, or opt out only 2 seasons..

RF Suzuki under contract 2 more yrs, can be traded..

 

As you see, only Swanson is under contract pass the 2026 season,  the others contract expires or under team control Arb..

So, like I said, if they choose to make positional player changes between this deadline and the 2026 offseason, it won't be hard for them to do because they're not committed to long term contracts with anyone but Swanson. All other contracts will be up at the end of 2026