Spring Training Chit Chats

[Petrey10]

I just expect the cubs to start slow blowing games in April and May and then end the year within a game or 2 of the playoffs.

there is value having Bellinger or whoever to start the season so we win another game or two.

 

but we need more revenue … lol

 

 

[SOFNR]

21 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

I just expect the cubs to start slow blowing games in April and May and then end the year within a game or 2 of the playoffs.

there is value having Bellinger or whoever to start the season so we win another game or two.

 

but we need more revenue … lol

 

 

You better get that gofundme started.

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, javy knows my name said:

I wonder who the one guy with the slightly left-of-center release is

If I'm Statcasting correctly it's Chris Devenski

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2023|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=R&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=50&sort_col=api_break_x_batter_in&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_release_pos_x=on#results

 

[Petrey10]

37 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

You better get that gofundme started.

I didn’t say they would sign him… but any signing has value in getting it done so that player is ready for the beginning of the year. Sitting back and waiting is bugs me. For both sides. 
 

something is broken in baseball … I don’t like where things are headed

[Randall Simon]

On 2/21/2024 at 6:15 PM, Stratos said:

There's value in the bye i agree, but then the division series is best out of 5.  I have always thought they should have the division series as best out of 7, and maybe make the wild card series best out of 5.  Playing 162 and then getting bounced after 3 losses is ridiculous.  The hot teams will still play better than the teams with the best roster and most season wins, but that will never change.

I always dreamed of a post season that more closely resembles the regular season, with round robin schedules, fewer days off and standings determining which teams advance. Always thought the 5 and 7 game series model was just a completely different game than the regular season, and personally I'm not a fan of that. 

[BigbadB]

21 hours ago, Cubfanintheknow said:

In 2015, I bought six tickets to three games. Spent $99. Almost half of that were for two tickets near the Cubs dugout.

Going to Mesa in two weeks. $99 basically gets you one seat.

Same thing for minor league ball. After the wife and I spent about $3000+ on one set of Bears tickets and one set of Cubs tickets last year along with a few other surprise costs, we told ourselves we needed to pull back the reins a bit. A buddy called from San Diego wanting us to do Cubs in Wrigley or Petco this year, and we told him it will have to be Peoria Chiefs this year. I googled tickets for a Peoria Chiefs game and the tickets start at $40 a seat. Holy crap.

[thawv]

35 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Same thing for minor league ball. After the wife and I spent about $3000+ on one set of Bears tickets and one set of Cubs tickets last year along with a few other surprise costs, we told ourselves we needed to pull back the reins a bit. A buddy called from San Diego wanting us to do Cubs in Wrigley or Petco this year, and we told him it will have to be Peoria Chiefs this year. I googled tickets for a Peoria Chiefs game and the tickets start at $40 a seat. Holy crap.

I'm 4 miles from the Twins ST, and tickets start at $13, and max out at $35.  I'm 8 miles from the Red Sox ST, and depending on the game, they start at $10, and go up to $47.

 

I've gone to several Twins A ball games, and the the front row was $9

[BigbadB]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

I'm 4 miles from the Twins ST, and tickets start at $13, and max out at $35.  I'm 8 miles from the Red Sox ST, and depending on the game, they start at $10, and go up to $47.

 

I've gone to several Twins A ball games, and the the front row was $9

There are other minor league affiliates within driving range of Peoria, but I'm half an hour from Peoria alone, and if I'm having someone come all the way out from California to take in a minor league game, half an hour might be the max I want to drive him since my home is specifically designed for entertaining. $40 a ticket isn't out of my price range. I was just blown away that tickets start at that price. That's way different than I remember them being. But, then again, I'm old enough to remember dollar beer night at the old park in Peoria.

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

There are other minor league affiliates within driving range of Peoria, but I'm half an hour from Peoria alone, and if I'm having someone come all the way out from California to take in a minor league game, half an hour might be the max I want to drive him since my home is specifically designed for entertaining. $40 a ticket isn't out of my price range. I was just blown away that tickets start at that price. That's way different than I remember them being. But, then again, I'm old enough to remember dollar beer night at the old park in Peoria.

The South Bend Cubs cost a lot too. But the Montgomery Biscuits sell seats for as low as $6.  

[chibears55]

I'm predicting a Bellinger signing today with the Cubs...

https://twitter.com/CHGO_Cubs/status/1761065124708921547?t=7CsSHQrE-BaePezmAm6Syg&s=19

[Rcal10]

So what is the opinion here on when the Boras 4 holding out becomes an issue for them this season? I can see a guy like Bellinger or Chapman not needing all the spring time. Maybe only 3 weeks. But the pitchers do need a little more time. Should we expect signings by the latest, 3/3? That is less than 4 weeks from the start of the season. Someone has to blink, right? 

[Rob]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

So what is the opinion here on when the Boras 4 holding out becomes an issue for them this season? I can see a guy like Bellinger or Chapman not needing all the spring time. Maybe only 3 weeks. But the pitchers do need a little more time. Should we expect signings by the latest, 3/3? That is less than 4 weeks from the start of the season. Someone has to blink, right? 

A couple weeks of games is a rounding error if you're looking for a 4-6 year contract. It won't make a huge difference. Meanwhile, a contender could have an injury while ST ramps up.

[Tim]

Just now, Rob said:

Meanwhile, a contender could have an injury while ST ramps up.

Maybe that matters for the pitchers, but I don't see it helping the position guys. Those injuries just aren't as likely, first of all. Secondly, I don't think you make the decision to commit 8/$200m to Bellinger just because your planned CF tore his ACL.

[LBiittner]

Mets lose Senga indefinitely because of shoulder. 

Perhaps a Snell or a Montgomery might be Mets-bound ?

 

[LBiittner]

Please, Craig Counsell, make sure Imanaga is limited to around 160 innings 

[Stratos]

7 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Please, Craig Counsell, make sure Imanaga is limited to around 160 innings 

Maybe less if he's going from 5 to 4 days rest

[LBiittner]

22 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Maybe less if he's going from 5 to 4 days rest

I agree

[chibears55]

I think the Cubs are done with adding bats now that Bellinger is back.

If they add any more players I think it will be a LH bullpen pitcher 

[chibears55]

One thing I definitely like is that if they are looking like serious WS contenders by the deadline and there a top player or two that can help put them over, they will have plenty of prospects depth to make a big trade.

[Bertz]

Thank God Sahadev made it down to Arizona to give us a reprieve from Mooney

 

Quote

It’s likely that to make space on the roster, a pitcher will be moved. The Cubs currently value everyone on their 40-man roster and would prefer not to lose a player for nothing, so they are working to trade a pitcher away. It’s possible that it can’t come to fruition soon enough. But the hope seems to be that even if a pitcher is designated for assignment, they’ll be deep enough in negotiations that they can still move that player via trade.

 

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If they’re competing by the deadline, pushing even further over the first luxury tax threshold isn’t expected to keep them from improving the team. How far they’ll be willing to go over will be the more likely question they face. Of course, the opposite end of that is they fall out of contention before the deadline and will look to shed some expiring deals to get prospects and be under the first threshold, which is $237 million for 2024.

 

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The Cubs will continue to look for upgrades to their roster during the spring, but the feeling around camp seems to be that this is their team.

Quote

 

The Cubs liked the idea of potentially adding Chapman at third, but this winter they were hyper-aware of becoming too right-handed with their lineup. Without Bellinger, there was a real concern that there weren’t enough lefties in the lineup and an injury to someone like Ian Happ would have left them vulnerable.

There are certain elite offensive talents for whom handedness may not have been a factor, but the front office wanted to avoid building a lineup that could be so easily pitched to and game-planned against. A righty-heavy lineup would have made decisions too easy for opposing managers, who could have repeatedly sent their best righty relievers against the same pocket of hitters night after night. With the prevalence of sweepers and quality side-armers in the game, neutralizing the Cubs would have been a simple, push-button operation for opposing managers. Bellinger at least gives the opposing coaching staff something to think about.

 

 

Quote

Not much should be read into the fact that the Cubs signed multiple veterans to minor-league deals. Outfielder David Peralta and first baseman Dominic Smith were both insurance moves in case they couldn’t re-sign Bellinger. Garrett Cooper seemed like an odd addition and a sign that perhaps another move could be coming. However, it simply appears to be the Cubs taking advantage of the fact that players are getting eager to sign and get into camp. At minimum, they’re each quality depth pieces to have around, Cooper in particular. All three have opt-outs, which are generally standard for veterans on minor-league deals.

[chibears55]

 

[Bertz]

The Cards are not winning the Central.  Not saying the Cubs will, but the Cards definitely aren’t.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's very funny that while the tweet loaded I thought you were going to be referencing a different one

 

 

Being 7th in % of WAR expected from your top 5 starters when they average 35 years old is a bad place to be.  They're apparently gonna try to do the 2023 Mets rotation with like a third of the upside?

[Bertz]

I thought this was really fun.  It also really speaks to the Cubs depth.  They are among the teams least impacted by removing their top end talent.  Now some of that is a lack of superstar talent, but also it's a testament to their depth.

-As all teams are currently constructed, FG has the Cubs 15th in winning percentage

- Remove every team's best player, Cubs are 13th

- Top 3 players Cuba are 9th

- Top 5 players Cubs are 6th

- Top 8 players Cubs are 3rd

It's a bit simplistic of an approach but once the season starts and things get real and injuries pile up the Cubs are going to be one of the last teams that has to dip into like waiver wire depth.

What's also interesting is that the Rays appear to be kings of this exercise, though annoyingly the Cardinals do basically just as well as the Cubs.  Though they're so old I there's a ton more underperformance risk beyond injury.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

What's also interesting is that the Rays appear to be kings of this exercise, though annoyingly the Cardinals do basically just as well as the Cubs.  Though they're so old I there's a ton more underperformance risk beyond injury.

I had the same thought about the Cardinals, but the other thing about their composition is that they have a different *likelihood* of needing to go into that depth since the Fangraphs exercise just treats it all as an equal hypothetical.  And also where they're most vulnerable is on the pitching side, where even an analysis like this is going to understate the effects because of how SP absences compound, as we learned last year. Rotation misses mean worse SP throwing and for fewer innings, leading to more bullpen innings used with fewer options to turn to because you rob the pen to plug the rotation, rinse, repeat.