Spring Training Chit Chats

[Tryptamine]

People need to realize that PCA doesn't need to hit a lot. With his speed and defense he could legitimately put up .700 OPS seasons and still sniff 4 fWAR. If he even approaches. 800 OPS you have a perennial all star.

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think his time is today.  If they don't want to use him as a SP, or as a RP, what are they doing with him?  I agree that if they are dead set on him being a SP, then AAA is the spot right now.  If they plan on moving him to the pen, he should not be in AAA.  I'd say that he would be one of the top 3-4 guys in the pen right now.  So it's clear that a SP is still their goal.  What if he's in AAA and working out of the pen?  How awful would that be?  I think it would be criminal. 

If he is strictly working in the pen he will be up soon enough this year. I hope he is starting, however. And even then I expect him up. (probably in the pen) I just think you rush time lines a bit. Cubs have several options in the pen. I honestly think it is going to be a strength this year. Really like the last 3, Neris, Merryweather and Alzolay. I do think Smyly and Little are making the team. Then you have several other options. Assad, Wesneski, Edwards, Almonte, Lieter, Palencia and Thompson plus maybe someone I am missing. The issue is, if Edwards isn’t on the team he probably goes elsewhere. Guys like Almonte and Lieter don’t have options left. Right now it is a numbers game and Brown hasn’t proven enough to the Cubs to earn a spot at the expense of having to let someone go for him to be on the OD roster. He is being sent down because they could send him down without losing him. I also don’t agree with you that he would be one of the top 3 or 4 guys in the pen. I think he could be. He could be a stud one inning guy. But he also could walk too many guys to be successful. And right now the Cubs don’t want to take that risk at the expense of losing someone for good. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

People need to realize that PCA doesn't need to hit a lot. With his speed and defense he could legitimately put up .700 OPS seasons and still sniff 4 fWAR. If he even approaches. 800 OPS you have a perennial all star.

I think we are discussing two different things here. I don’t think anyone is saying he can put up a decent WAR as a pro. But I do think many have higher aspirations for him. Many have suggested he will hit. And if he turns out to be Kiermaier with the bat, that is not hitting.

Earlier we had guys suggesting his peak years to be an .850 guy. We have had others suggest .800 as a typical season. So when I say I am not sure he will be that guy or even I do worry about his bat, that is what I am referencing Sure, he could be that 700 OPS guy you suggest and would be valuable. But he would also be disappointing to many, including me. 

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, thawv said:

If Kiermaier is his his ceiling, I'd be so disappointed.   I guess I'd begrudgingly settle for a Kiermaier career, but it would most certainly be a disappointment to me. 

Finally, common ground. I agree with this. 😀

[Crusader]

Good news. Taillon’s injury for not getting the start yesterday was just lower back tightness.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

I think his time is today.  If they don't want to use him as a SP, or as a RP, what are they doing with him?  I agree that if they are dead set on him being a SP, then AAA is the spot right now.  If they plan on moving him to the pen, he should not be in AAA.  I'd say that he would be one of the top 3-4 guys in the pen right now.  So it's clear that a SP is still their goal.  What if he's in AAA and working out of the pen?  How awful would that be?  I think it would be criminal. 

Brown had a 5.33 ERA in AAA, as a reliever in Iowa he gave up 8 runs in 7.2 innings with a 10/11 K/BB and .856 OPS against.  His injury clouds things a bit, but this narrative that Brown's developmental timeline is near expiration and that as a reliever he's ready to step into a prominent role today is not supported by the facts on the ground.

[squally1313]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Not me. That would mean people concerned about his hit tool are right. He can’t hit. I am not willing to accept that yet, and would never be thrilled with it. He might very well be just that and have a decent career. But I think most people, including me, hope for more out of him. 

Pedantic here, but if you could tell me that PCA ended up being basically the second best defensive outfielder of all time on a rate basis, but ended up offensively with a career 98 OPS+, I will take that 100% of the time. 

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Pedantic here, but if you could tell me that PCA ended up being basically the second best defensive outfielder of all time on a rate basis, but ended up offensively with a career 98 OPS+, I will take that 100% of the time. 

If PCA plays to a .98 OPS+ that’s a disappointing career offensively based on what most people, including me, hoped for. Sure, if he was rated a top 5 defensive outfielders all time, he would still bring a lot of value and be an everyday starter. But would be lying if I said I would be happy with that offensive production. And I think most want/expect more. 
Keep in mind, I have never suggested he won’t be better offensively than that. I am not totally down on him. I am just not sure he will be the hitter some have suggested. I am not sure he will ever be an 800 OPS guy, let alone the 850, previously suggested. But I do still hope he post better offensive numbers than Kiermaier. 

Edited March 10, 2024 by Rcal10

[Petrey10]

Tallion being injured really doesn’t bother me. Should be a good thing honestly

[squally1313]

28 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If PCA plays to a .98 OPS+ that’s a disappointing career offensively based on what most people, including me, hoped for. Sure, if he was rated a top 5 defensive outfielders all time, he would still bring a lot of value and be an everyday starter. But would be lying if I said I would be happy with that offensive production. And I think most want/expect more. 
Keep in mind, I have never suggested he won’t be better offensively than that. I am not totally down on him. I am just not sure he will be the hitter some have suggested. I am not sure he will ever be an 800 OPS guy, let alone the 850, previously suggested. But I do still hope he post better offensive numbers than Kiermaier. 

I think we're focused on different things. If you offered me 25.7 fWAR in just over 1000 games, I'm locking that in yesterday. Hoping for Kiermeyer's glove AND Cameron's bat isn't like, far fetched given his profile, but setting expectations that high for pretty much anyone is going to lead to more disappointment than it should. 

[SOFNR]

1 hour ago, Petrey10 said:

Tallion being injured really doesn’t bother me. Should be a good thing honestly

That's really silly. He was definitely disappointing last year, even with the solid 2nd half. But he's absolutely a better bet to perform well going forward then the Assads and Smylys of the world. Get a grip.

Edited March 10, 2024 by SOFNR

[thawv]

19 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Brown had a 5.33 ERA in AAA, as a reliever in Iowa he gave up 8 runs in 7.2 innings with a 10/11 K/BB and .856 OPS against.  His injury clouds things a bit, but this narrative that Brown's developmental timeline is near expiration and that as a reliever he's ready to step into a prominent role today is not supported by the facts on the ground.

I personally think that stuff, and tools are way more important than stats in the minors.  The minors is literally a practice league for the majors.  Players are working on things.  When they don't have anything to prove or work on in the minors, the majors are the next step.  I could be wrong, but I assume that Brown is still working and practicing on things in the minors.  But at some point, and I think it's going to be very soon, they are going to have to see that this is very likely who he is, and get him on the roster.  

[Backtobanks]

20 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think we are discussing two different things here. I don’t think anyone is saying he can put up a decent WAR as a pro. But I do think many have higher aspirations for him. Many have suggested he will hit. And if he turns out to be Kiermaier with the bat, that is not hitting.

Earlier we had guys suggesting his peak years to be an .850 guy. We have had others suggest .800 as a typical season. So when I say I am not sure he will be that guy or even I do worry about his bat, that is what I am referencing Sure, he could be that 700 OPS guy you suggest and would be valuable. But he would also be disappointing to many, including me. 

People suggesting .850 or even .800 would make him a 1st ballot HOFer with his fielding ability.  Let's be a little more realistic.

[Bertz]

Via Sharma this morning

- Don't expect Cubs to sign Montgomery, and definitely not Snell

- On a practical level, payroll is already above the LT.  It's at a spot where if they have to sell in July they would dip below, and if they want to add they can do so without much worry about salary

- JD Davis is expected to make it through waivers, and the Cubs might be in on him then.  Sounds like they think he's a worse defender than Morel and would be a primary DH

- Cubs likely end up making some moves to clean up the back end of the 40 man and make room for some of the non-roster invitees

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

People suggesting .850 or even .800 would make him a 1st ballot HOFer with his fielding ability.  Let's be a little more realistic.

Personally I think expecting him to be Kiermaier defensively is not realistic either. But the people who suggest 800-850 OPS are pointing to the same thing the people who are calling him the best centerfielder ever. His history in the minors. To me both expectations are silly. He can be a very fine major league ballplaywe being one of the best centerfielders in the game(Not the best of all time) and a decent bat similar to someone like Cameron. But if his bat is between .700-.730 in his prime, while his defense will still provide a lot of value. That would be a bit underwhelming to me. 
I have not given up on him offensively. I am not that person. But I do have to say, he needs time at AAA to work on his hitting and I am a little concerned about it. 

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

I personally think that stuff, and tools are way more important than stats in the minors.  The minors is literally a practice league for the majors.  Players are working on things.  When they don't have anything to prove or work on in the minors, the majors are the next step.  I could be wrong, but I assume that Brown is still working and practicing on things in the minors.  But at some point, and I think it's going to be very soon, they are going to have to see that this is very likely who he is, and get him on the roster.  

Call me crazy, but I prefer my pitching prospects to 'prove' they can have an ERA under 5 in AAA.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Personally I think expecting him to be Kiermaier defensively is not realistic either. But the people who suggest 800-850 OPS are pointing to the same thing the people who are calling him the best centerfielder ever. His history in the minors. To me both expectations are silly. He can be a very fine major league ballplaywe being one of the best centerfielders in the game(Not the best of all time) and a decent bat similar to someone like Cameron. But if his bat is between .700-.730 in his prime, while his defense will still provide a lot of value. That would be a bit underwhelming to me. 
I have not given up on him offensively. I am not that person. But I do have to say, he needs time at AAA to work on his hitting and I am a little concerned about it. 

Mike Cameron is the 30th best centerfielder of all time. 8th best centerfielder this century, and that's not giving him credit for 2 seasons over 4 wins in the 90s. 'A decent bat similar to someone like Cameron' as if guys who hit 278 HRs and steal 297 bases are commonplace. 

[Jason Ross]

I know Sharma said they wouldn't sign Snell...

 

But Snell just went and followed Bellinger, Wisdom, Fowler, and Benny the Bull, it appears, very recently. We see this thing from time to time so who knows. Just an interesting tidbit. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

I personally think that stuff, and tools are way more important than stats in the minors.  The minors is literally a practice league for the majors.  Players are working on things.  When they don't have anything to prove or work on in the minors, the majors are the next step.  I could be wrong, but I assume that Brown is still working and practicing on things in the minors.  But at some point, and I think it's going to be very soon, they are going to have to see that this is very likely who he is, and get him on the roster.  

Minor league performance isn't the end all be all, but no, that's not true.  It's especially not true in the sense that the gap between AAA and the majors has never been wider, so if you can't get AAA hitters out consistently it's very unlikely you'll be able to effortlessly transition to be 'one of the 3-4 best relievers' in a MLB pen.  But really it looks like all of this is just working backwards from this feeling of impatience you have about Brown.  He may very well be up this year, and he may play a key part in the bullpen.  He's also a guy who has significant control issues and has spent only a couple months at AAA before coming down with an injury.  Whatever the role, let him start in AAA and prove his readiness.  He's a good prospect but he's not so special that we need to ignore all other signs because he's not going to be able to stuff his way to getting MLB hitters out at a high level.

[Rcal10]

44 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Mike Cameron is the 30th best centerfielder of all time. 8th best centerfielder this century, and that's not giving him credit for 2 seasons over 4 wins in the 90s. 'A decent bat similar to someone like Cameron' as if guys who hit 278 HRs and steal 297 bases are commonplace. 

Mike Cameron has a career batting line line of .249/.338/.444 for OPS of 782. OPS+ of 106. So now that is too much to ask for from PCA offensively? That is too high a bar? I feel the bar keeps getting lower on what people hope/expect out of him. 
If you read my post I didn’t suggest he would be Cameron defensively. I said I would like him to be a top 3 centerfielder in the game today. That is actually lowering the bar that some use when they want to talk about his defense being that of Kieemaier. I was only pointing out he didn’t have to be Kiermaier. 
Going back to Cameron, he averaged about 16-17 homers a year and about 17-18 SB a year over his 17 year career. He did that during the live ball steroids era as well. So dialing that homer average down a few to maybe 12-14 a year and I think PCA should steal more bases on a yearly average, why is a typical Cameron year unrealistic to suggest for PCA? Why is OPS of 106 something we should not hope for over his career? 
What is a realistic expectancy out of PCA? What does he need to do to be considered a guy who played as expected? Is Harrison Bader the bar? Jackie Bradley Jr2018(.234/314/.403) He won the GG that year.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Mike Cameron has a career batting line line of .249/.338/.444 for OPS of 782. OPS+ of 106. So now that is too much to ask for from PCA offensively? That is too high a bar? I feel the bar keeps getting lower on what people hope/expect out of him. 
If you read my post I didn’t suggest he would be Cameron defensively. I said I would like him to be a top 3 centerfielder in the game today. That is actually lowering the bar that some use when they want to talk about his defense being that of Kieemaier. I was only pointing out he didn’t have to be Kiermaier. 
Going back to Cameron, he averaged about 16-17 homers a year and about 17-18 SB a year over his 17 year career. He did that during the live ball steroids era as well. So dialing that homer average down a few to maybe 12-14 a year and I think PCA should steal more bases on a yearly average, why is a typical Cameron year unrealistic to suggest for PCA? Why is OPS of 106 something we should not hope for over his career? 
What is a realistic expectancy out of PCA? What does he need to do to be considered a guy who played as expected? Is Harrison Bader the bar? Jackie Bradley Jr2018(.234/314/.403) He won the GG that year.

 

Using career averages for Cameron is going to depress this a bit because it includes the entirety of his decline.  His first 6 seasons averaged a 106 wRC+(including 4 seasons of 110+), 18 HR, and 29 SB good for a 4.2 fWAR when combined with his elite defense.  A good outcome for PCA would be him having some pre-FA seasons like Cameron did, alongside some that were more Bader or Bradley-esque.  The adjustments he does or doesn't make will determine how many seasons (if any) look like peak Cameron or good JBJ compared to Bader or bad JBJ.

[squally1313]

Mike Cameron had 10 MLB seasons with a higher wRC+ than what PCA put up in AAA last year. He had 8 seasons with over 20 home runs, which was PCAs total in the minor leagues last year. 

Over the course of his career (1995-2011) he put up the second most defensive value (and not even half of what Andruw Jones did), but some of that was just driven by volume, and guys like Darin Erstad and Kenny Lofton weren't super far off on a rate basis, so I think that's a pretty reasonable comparison to 'top 3 centerfielder in the game'. 

Mike Cameron had a long and successful major league career. He had 40 fWAR. PCA doesn't have a major league hit. I hope he's a stud! But it's very likely he won't be and still provide a lot of value for not a lot of money, which (unfortunately) matters quite a bit. 

[champaignchris]

4 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

People suggesting .850 or even .800 would make him a 1st ballot HOFer with his fielding ability.  Let's be a little more realistic.

Heh. This post made Andruw Jones cry. But that has more to do with the HoF voters being idiots than the right-ness of your post. 
 

Setting the expectations for PCA at Andruw Jones/Jim Edmunds levels is unrealistic. 

[thawv]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Call me crazy, but I prefer my pitching prospects to 'prove' they can have an ERA under 5 in AAA.

That's not crazy!

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Using career averages for Cameron is going to depress this a bit because it includes the entirety of his decline.  His first 6 seasons averaged a 106 wRC+(including 4 seasons of 110+), 18 HR, and 29 SB good for a 4.2 fWAR when combined with his elite defense.  A good outcome for PCA would be him having some pre-FA seasons like Cameron did, alongside some that were more Bader or Bradley-esque.  The adjustments he does or doesn't make will determine how many seasons (if any) look like peak Cameron or good JBJ compared to Bader or bad JBJ.

So are we all in agreement that a good peak year season for PCA would be a top 3-5 centerfielder in the game today with maybe OPS+ of around 110-115? No one is arguing if he is less than that he won’t be valuable. I get his defense alone makes him have value. My entire discussion was strictly on his offensive ability. To me, a peak year offensive number that has him 10% over league average is not being unrealistic. Or is it? Is the view on PCA he is strictly a glove guy and be happy with 5-10% below league average offensively? To me, that would be disappointing, even though he would provide value with defense alone. That sort of guy isn’t a  everyday player for long. Kind of a Bader, Bradley Jr sort of guy. .