Spring Training Chit Chats

[Tryptamine]

6 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

People suggesting .850 or even .800 would make him a 1st ballot HOFer with his fielding ability.  Let's be a little more realistic.

He's like a 6 or 7 war player at .850, that type of expectation isn't realistic. 

[squally1313]

22 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So are we all in agreement that a good peak year season for PCA would be a top 3-5 centerfielder in the game today with maybe OPS+ of around 110-115?

No, the guy who said he could have a 'decent bat similar to someone like Cameron' wouldn't be in agreement with that statement, because Mike Cameron exceed 110 on ten separate occasions, which would make it very much not a 'peak year season'

[KCCub]

 

Will we be a player here?

[CubinNY]

31 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

Will we be a player here?

Maybe. 

[Bertz]

50 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

Will we be a player here?

It got lost on the last page with all of the Mike Cameron talk but Sharma this morning said yes but not a resounding yes

Quote

The Cubs like Davis’ offense, but don’t see him as an upgrade defensively at third, even with real questions about Christopher Morel’s ability to handle the position. They do like Davis’ bat though. There are a few things the Cubs will consider when talking about Davis. What price will he ultimately sign for? Is he an upgrade over players like Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal? Would the subsequent 40-man roster move they’ll have to make be worth adding him? Do they want to clog up DH and impact the overall flexibility of their roster?

If they don't think he's a guy they'd want to play regularly at 3B I'm not sure he's worth signing over Wisdom.

[LBiittner]

5 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I know Sharma said they wouldn't sign Snell...

 

But Snell just went and followed Bellinger, Wisdom, Fowler, and Benny the Bull, it appears, very recently. We see this thing from time to time so who knows. Just an interesting tidbit. 

Benny the Bull clinches its a done deal for me, lol

[Bull]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

So are we all in agreement that a good peak year season for PCA would be a top 3-5 centerfielder in the game today with maybe OPS+ of around 110-115? No one is arguing if he is less than that he won’t be valuable. I get his defense alone makes him have value. My entire discussion was strictly on his offensive ability. To me, a peak year offensive number that has him 10% over league average is not being unrealistic. Or is it? Is the view on PCA he is strictly a glove guy and be happy with 5-10% below league average offensively? To me, that would be disappointing, even though he would provide value with defense alone. That sort of guy isn’t a  everyday player for long. Kind of a Bader, Bradley Jr sort of guy. . 

I think you’d better be able to dialog with some of the other posters if you start with WAR and work backwards. 
 

The top team by CF WAR last year was 3.2. The fifth best was 2.0. Let’s call that range clealy above average for CF.

Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez had an OPS+ of 128. He had 5.8 OWAR and a 0.0 DWAR. He is an all bat CF who should probably be in a corner OF. Think when Happ was playing CF for awhile. 

Luis Robert Jr was at 128 OPS+ (with fewer ABs) and was at 4.4 OWar, and 1.1 DWAR. 

Kiermier was 2.0 and 2.2 at 104 OPS. A really valuable player. 

You put PCA at 128 OPS+ with his defense, you might be looking at a 8+ WAR. (Rodriguez” 5.8 plus Kiermiers 2.2) I think you see that’s unrealistic expectations. The ceiling? Maybe. But certainly not the median expectation.

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, Bull said:

I think you’d better be able to dialog with some of the other posters if you start with WAR and work backwards. 
 

The top team by CF WAR last year was 3.2. The fifth best was 2.0. Let’s call that range clealy above average for CF.

Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez had an OPS+ of 128. He had 5.8 OWAR and a 0.0 DWAR. He is an all bat CF who should probably be in a corner OF. Think when Happ was playing CF for awhile. 

Luis Robert Jr was at 128 OPS+ (with fewer ABs) and was at 4.4 OWar, and 1.1 DWAR. 

Kiermier was 2.0 and 2.2 at 104 OPS. A really valuable player. 

You put PCA at 128 OPS+ with his defense, you might be looking at a 8+ WAR. (Rodriguez” 5.8 plus Kiermiers 2.2) I think you see that’s unrealistic expectations. The ceiling? Maybe. But certainly not the median expectation.

Who put him at 128? I said during his peak years(I probably should have said prime) is it realistic to hope for his offensive production to be 10% to 15% above league average. Basically right around Happ OPS+ average. Is that fair expectation. Or are we looking offensively at Badar/Kiermaier offensively? Is that what we should realistically expect.  
 

Also a WAR if 2.0 or 2.2 is not that valuable. Maybe an average ballplayer. Kiermaier did that with being possibly the best defensive centerfielder ever(and definitely the best now). So if he was just a very good defender that WAR might be closer to 1.5-1.8. Is that something we should be hoping for PCA? I think it is equally unrealistic  to expect PCA to be as good as Kiermaier defensively as it is to expect him to have OPS of 800. 
 

So again, is it realistic to put expectations of PCA to  be a guy about 10% to 15% over league average and a top 3-5 centerfielder in the game today. 
 

Unrealistic or not, that is what I am hoping for him. Most likely not in 24. I am talking about when he hits his prime. I certainly hope that is the ballplayer he becomes. 

Edited March 11, 2024 by Rcal10

[squally1313]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Also a WAR if 2.0 or 2.2 is not that valuable.

Clearing up a little confusion here: Bull was saying Kiermaier, per BRs calculation of WAR, generated 2.0 oWAR AND 2.2 dWAR, or 4.2 total. This took me a second because FG gave him 2.2 fWAR total last year, so obviously BR liked him better. 4.2 I assume you're much more comfortable with right? He also did that in 408 PAs, so extrapolating out to 600 makes it an incredibly impressive year. 

I prefer FG, but I think to Bull's point, expecting some proxy of Kiermaier's defense and a 110-115 OPS+ puts him in the arena of 'best player in baseball'. I don't think that's a realistic expectation for anyone, much less someone who has pretty much never been a top 3-5 prospect, hasn't shown anything above AA, etc. 

I'd assume you'd agree that expectations should not be 'one of the best players in baseball' (although during Mike Cameron's peak of 1999-2009 he produced the 16th most offensive WAR, so maybe you are?). So if we lower expectations down to 'consistent above average producer, couple all star teams, etc etc' (one could split hairs here, I'd rather not), we need to regress at least one side of this Budget Mike Cameron bat/Budget Kevin Kiermaier glove comp you're putting on him. Personally I think he's much more likely to approach Kiermaier than he is Cameron. 

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Personally I think expecting him to be Kiermaier defensively is not realistic either. But the people who suggest 800-850 OPS are pointing to the same thing the people who are calling him the best centerfielder ever. His history in the minors. To me both expectations are silly. He can be a very fine major league ballplaywe being one of the best centerfielders in the game(Not the best of all time) and a decent bat similar to someone like Cameron. But if his bat is between .700-.730 in his prime, while his defense will still provide a lot of value. That would be a bit underwhelming to me. 
I have not given up on him offensively. I am not that person. But I do have to say, he needs time at AAA to work on his hitting and I am a little concerned about it. 

If he turns out to be a healthier version of Kiermaier I'd be very satisfied.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Clearing up a little confusion here: Bull was saying Kiermaier, per BRs calculation of WAR, generated 2.0 oWAR AND 2.2 dWAR, or 4.2 total. This took me a second because FG gave him 2.2 fWAR total last year, so obviously BR liked him better. 4.2 I assume you're much more comfortable with right? He also did that in 408 PAs, so extrapolating out to 600 makes it an incredibly impressive year. 

I prefer FG, but I think to Bull's point, expecting some proxy of Kiermaier's defense and a 110-115 OPS+ puts him in the arena of 'best player in baseball'. I don't think that's a realistic expectation for anyone, much less someone who has pretty much never been a top 3-5 prospect, hasn't shown anything above AA, etc. 

I'd assume you'd agree that expectations should not be 'one of the best players in baseball' (although during Mike Cameron's peak of 1999-2009 he produced the 16th most offensive WAR, so maybe you are?). So if we lower expectations down to 'consistent above average producer, couple all star teams, etc etc' (one could split hairs here, I'd rather not), we need to regress at least one side of this Budget Mike Cameron bat/Budget Kevin Kiermaier glove comp you're putting on him. Personally I think he's much more likely to approach Kiermaier than he is Cameron. 

Let’s make is simple. My expectation of him is for him to be a solid everyday player. Honestly I don’t know what goes into that to get him to a 2.6-4.0 WAR ballplayer year in and year out. But that’s my hope for him. Solid major league ballplayer. That is not too high a bar for a top 20 prospect in the game. 

[Stratos]

Wonder why no appearance by Horton? He's on the Cubs Prospect game roster.  Saw him pitching a live sim AB to Happ the other day.   Maybe he had a  small issue and was delayed this ST

 

[thawv]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

Wonder why no appearance by Horton? He's on the Cubs Prospect game roster.  Saw him pitching a live sim AB to Happ the other day.   Maybe he had a  small issue and was delayed this ST

 

Like 1908 convinced me of, he's on a delayed start so that he'll be useful and available at the end of the season.  If he gets called up in the middle of June, he can have 20 starts with zero limitations, assuming his inning count is in the 130 range.  That's pitching in to the 7th inning every game.  We know that's not happening.  Delaying his start is the smart thing to do. 

[Bull]

17 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Let’s make is simple. My expectation of him is for him to be a solid everyday player. Honestly I don’t know what goes into that to get him to a 2.6-4.0 WAR ballplayer year in and year out. But that’s my hope for him. Solid major league ballplayer. That is not too high a bar for a top 20 prospect in the game. 

4.0 bWAR would have made him 43rd among position players last year. 2.6 top 102. 

You expect him to consistently be a top 100 position player in the league over a long enough stretch to qualify as "year in and year out"? I'd say that's very high expectations. I'd put the list of position players to achieve that range every year over a, say, 7-year span is exceedingly short.

 

And to further my previous point, if he achieves 2.0 dWar that .6 oWar is Myles Straw, he of 69 OPS+

getting to 4.0 (2.0 plus 2.0) has him similar to Kiermier. So you're saying his best case is Kiermier. A 104 OPS+ in his BEST year.

Edited March 12, 2024 by Bull

[Bull]

Also, for what it's worth, both Dansby and Nico had top 30 in MLB WAR (position players only) with OPS+ that were sub 100 last year.

That's what you can hope for from the Nincompoop. If he stops being negative value on the basepaths.

Edited March 12, 2024 by Bull

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, thawv said:

Like 1908 convinced me of, he's on a delayed start so that he'll be useful and available at the end of the season.  If he gets called up in the middle of June, he can have 20 starts with zero limitations, assuming his inning count is in the 130 range.  That's pitching in to the 7th inning every game.  We know that's not happening.  Delaying his start is the smart thing to do. 

Sounds right.

[javy knows my name]

We Need to Stop Talking PCA on NSBB

[KCCub]

Any cliff's from Sharma's piece this morning around the plan for Horton? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

17 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Any cliff's from Sharma's piece this morning around the plan for Horton? 

It liberally quotes the Director of Pitching Ryan Otero about Horton.  The most relevant bits about his ramp up:
 

Quote

 

"We’re hoping for a workload that we haven’t seen from him before yet. Just get him in that routine and make sure he’s ready for four- and five-day rest as a starter."

 

(in response to why he isn't an NRI)

“We do that pretty typically with our starter prospects just to make sure we control their workload and set them up for the season,” Otero said. “Obviously, in major-league spring training games, there are other needs. We just want to make sure we’re responsible with him. Obviously with the injury history and last year was his first real full-season starter workload. We just want to make sure we’re smart about that.

 

“We don’t really like subscribing to firm inning projections because the body is more complicated than that,” Otero said. “We use them as a guide. We have a lot of really helpful readiness tests, workload tests and fatigue tests just to see where players are at. Everything is on the table, but my expectation would be an affiliate.”

 

“All of our pitchers, we treat the same,” Otero said. “The goal is to win major-league games. Whoever is ready to do that, absolutely. If guys are ready, including him, that’s the plan.”

 

 

[Post Count Padder]

I'm glad I opened this can of worms by comparing PCA to Kiermaier lol.

As for JD Davis, him to the Mariners makes too much sense. They have a black hole at 3B and are trying to compete. I figured Chapman would go there or San Fran.

[KCCub]

 

 

[CubinNY]

Our own Owen Caissie made the Athletic’s 30 players who’ve impressed this ST. 
 

Good for him. There is lightning in that bat. 

[Tryptamine]

Unfortunately I'll actually be able to watch this game, keep your expectations low.

[Tryptamine]

Yup, this going about as expected. 

[LBiittner]

I really hope you don't watch the regular season games