The Super Bowl and Stupid Bets thread, Year 2

[CubinNY]

So we have Taylor Swift vs. Brock Purdy in the Super Bowl this year. Who ya got? What will you bet on? What are some of the more outrageous prop bets this year? Gambling is not allowed in Alabama so I will not be betting. If I were, I'd bet on KC and take the points. 

[gflore34]

Haven't looked but, there's got to a be an OU on number of times the camera pans to Taylor Swift.

[Brian707]

I think SF wins. Seems like everyone is on the Chiefs. Vegas will either make a killing or take a bath on this one.

 

Some props:

Color of Gatorade poured on winning coach? 

Purple +225

Yellow/Green +300

Orange +300

Blue +300

Red +350

Clear +1000

No Gatorade Bath +1600 

[Tryptamine]

Not sure what has happened to the 49er's defense, but if it doesn't get fixed, KC wins yet again. 

[Brian707]

Swiftie props:

 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I can't wait to listen to Romo talk about Mahomes.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I feel like there was someone else on this forum shortly before you joined that would also give out betting advice.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

The line is pretty interesting this year.  The models and stats like the 49ers (who were one of the most efficient teams of all time, per play, by some metrics) but the Chiefs are clearly in better form (another way of expressing recenty bias).  In general, it think it is a fool's errand to pretend to know better than the bookies, and they probably have it right, again.

I have a lineup in the finals of a bestball contest.  400 entries remain.  A lot of entires don't have a "full" lineup, as many of their players aren't even playing in the Super Bowl.  First place is 150K, but the players I have that are still live are all very popular (apart from MVS and Jennings, so I'm rooting hard for them, and against players I don't have, namely, Purdy, Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, and Watson) A few other line ups have all of the same active players left as me, so I can't take 1st place on my own.  After some back-of-the-envelope guesses, I think the most I could win is around 60K if things go perfectly.  Around 7K would be pretty good aside from very unlikely outcomes.

So, I think I'm going to make an account on FanDuel (which I have yet to do) and take them up on their 5 dollar deposit = 150 in bonus bets (for new accounts).  And as a tip to all you degens out there, you can maximize your returns with offers like these by betting outrageous longshots.  This article lays out the math (it's talking about free bets instead of bonus bets, but the same logic applies): https://unabated.com/articles/risk-free-bet-profit-strategy

So I'll bet some silly parlays on crazy props revolving around the above named "root against" players so I should have something fun to sweat no matter how the game progresses.   Also, in general, the prop markets tend to be the least efficient.  You often find more negative expected-value bets there on average, but you're also much more likely to find actual value hidden away in those lines.  Prop lines are designed more to entice action than they are to be accurate, at least compared to the more heavily bet things like moneylines and spreads. 

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Whoa.  I just got a text message from "Allie at Caesars Sportsbook" who wants me to come back.  (I maxed out a bonus offer there a while back, and lost all the underdog bets I made...some of my syndicate's bets hit, but they don't know that.)  She's offering more bonus bets, and free rooms in Vegas or Blackhawk.  I've never had this happen before.  Looks like I might be betting more than I thought.  

[Soul]

I love the Taylor Swift thing because it makes so many people angry (or faux angry).

 

Show her more.  Dedicate a pre-game hour to her and Kelce's relationship only.  Helicopter coverage of her getting off the plane and her motorcade to the game.  Anything else you can think of.  How about NORAD coverage of her plane flying over the ocean just like tracking Santa on X-Mas eve?  Go balls-out on it.

[Brian707]

I am betting the under(48) just placed it after it ticked up at Pointsbet. Got a $50 free bet too. Offer is today only . Now what to do with the free bet?

[CubinNY]

19 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

I am betting the under(48) just placed it after it ticked up at Pointsbet. Got a $50 free bet too. Offer is today only . Now what to do with the free bet?

bet the over, lol. 

[Brian707]

Probably find some prop at + money

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

15 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Probably find some prop at + money

Yep, the bigger the dog, the better the bonus bet is.  

[BigSlick]

I don't feel any sort of confidence making a bet on the winner of this game. I usually feel some sort of leaning, and if all things were equal, I'd take the 49ers - but given the Niners have come off two of their worst games and the Chiefs two of their best make me feel like I should just stay away from it. It's a coin flip. 

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I needed to clear 2K in bets to get 1K in bonus bets, so my standard bets were:

500 on under 51.5 at -194

500 on under 6.5 Aiyuk targets at -115

500 on over 16.5 Watson total yards at -110 

500 on under 9.5 1st quarter total points at -115

And my bonus bets:

250 on Rice first TD scorer at +1000

250 on Deebo first TD scorer at +900

500 on a parlay: Pacheco under 67.5 rushing, Kelce under 6.5 receptions, Aiyuk under 4.5 receptions at +540

 

Fingers crossed!

[Brian707]

For the Narional Anthem. 90.5 seconds is the o/u. Reba had three rehearsals that were 95, 93, 95 seconds respectively.  

[Tim]

So...I would have cheered for SF, but I have to go for KC now.

Let's go TayTay, overthrow democracy!!!

[Derwood]

On 2/8/2024 at 4:00 PM, CubinNY said:

bet the over, lol. 

Good call

[soccer10k]

Man that sucks for Greenlaw. Tear your Achilles running onto the field in the Super Bowl.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Gangster ass play call 

[cl smooth]

Usher absolutely killed it during the halftime show. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

27 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

Usher absolutely killed it during the halftime show. 

That was easily one of the best of all time 

 

Shanahan has some horsefeathers demons to exorcise and he's had some huge calls tonight. 

[soccer10k]

Great game.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, cl smooth said:

Usher absolutely killed it during the halftime show. 

Meh