Article: Shohei Ohtani Will Not Be a Cub. That's Probably for the Best.

[Matthew Trueblood]

On Saturday, the record for the biggest contract in MLB history was nearly lapped. In one Instagram post, the Cubs got their definitive answer, after the most mysterious free agency in recent memory. Now, they can move on.

Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

At $700 million (even given massive deferrals), Shohei Ohtani was not a fit for the Cubs. I would argue that he's not even a fit for the Dodgers at that number, but they have it to spend and he's an extraordinary player, so now, he's a Dodger. The Cubs didn't land Ohtani despite their second earnest effort to court him, but if it was going to cost anything like this much money, they made the right choice by not overextending to win the bidding war. Perfect rationality is no way for a baseball team to live, but this contract represents a degree of irrationality that was always going to be insupportable.

With that roadblock out of the way, though, the Cubs can now begin their offseason, for real. Over the next 10 days (before things begin to wind down for the holidays), there will be a flurry of moves throughout MLB. Chicago's chances of landing Yoshinobu Yamamoto are very slim, just as they were with Ohtani. It feels very much as though Yamamoto will end up with the Yankees or Mets, on a deal that could reach $400 million in total expenditures after accounting for the posting fee. There are plenty of other stars who will soon change teams, though, and the Cubs figure to be in on several of them.

Tyler Glasnow's name keeps coming up in connection with the Cubs, but the Dodgers just gained about 700 million more reasons to be aggressive about a deal to bolster their rotation for exactly one year, so the competition there will be stiff. The Cubs' best bet to upgrade their own starting staff might yet be a Japanese phenom, because they're still being mentioned as a suitor for Shota Imanaga, and Imanaga has a chance to be the sneakily low-priced ace on this increasingly crazy market. 

Remember, a week ago, we heard rumors of the Cubs being interested in Jordan Montgomery. They could now get serious in pursuit of him, although you'd figure it's either Montgomery or Imanaga, rather than both. The fit with either makes sense, and probably more sense than the one with Glasnow, but any of the three would be a boon to the rotation. The team does need that, and would have even if they'd signed Ohtani.

At the moment, though, the next move I would bet on from the Cubs is a trade with the Guardians. They've been linked to Shane Bieber, Emmanuel Clase, and Josh Naylor, and all three of them make sense for Chicago. They will not acquire all three, but various combinations of them have been kicked around by the two sides, and there are other interesting pieces who could flow each way. While Cubs fans all agree on the need for more swing-and-miss from the rotation, and while Bieber doesn't exactly promise to deliver that, we have to keep in mind that the Cubs have concrete preferences in their starters, and reasons for those preferences. Bieber fits those preferences. 

Clase would be an interesting pickup for the bullpen. He's obviously one of the game's best closers, but just as obviously, he pitched his arm off for Terry Francona at times during the last few seasons. I don't think Francona was consciously trading Clase's future for his own present, but the aging skipper turned to his All-Star relief ace so often to hold thin leads cobbled together by an anemic offense that Clase did wear down under the burden as last season progressed. When he's right, though, he's overpowering, and building a bullpen in front of him would feel like a breeze, compared to the difficulty of assembling a usable committee each year over the last few.

Naylor is a brilliant fit for the Cubs, but the Guardians aren't yet clearly ready to trade him. He's such a heartbeat of that team that they can't easily let him go, even if they have pressure coming from the farm system in the form of top prospect Kyle Manzardo. The idea of Naylor's slashing left-handed offense and solid glove at first base is highly appealing, though.

There are all of those options, and plenty more. The Cubs could pivot to trying to trade for one of the Marlins' controllable starting pitchers, although whether any of them represent a sufficient short-term upgrade over the team's options of Ben Brown and Cade Horton to justify their cost is a reasonable question. They could try to sign a player they did once woo as a coveted international free agent, in Jorge Soler, or swoop in to collect the Dodgers' jetsam after J.D. Martinez's time as the designated hitter in Los Angeles was semi-officially ended by Ohtani's signing. They could engage with Rhys Hoskins on a short-term deal, or Matt Chapman on a longer one.

There might be a couple of interesting trade targets in Minnesota, where the Twins need to unload the salary of either Jorge Polanco or Max Kepler and want starting pitching. Ryan McMahon could be a really nice complementary piece and long-term addition, if trading for him were only the third-biggest move of the winter. He'd only be disappointing as a headline move for the team. The Padres might look to offload even more salary, before they go about reassembling a competitive team. The Mariners have Logan Gilbert, who might be available for a deal centered on young hitters. Opportunities abound.

Jed Hoyer is just getting started, after this chance slid by. He might have a slightly narrower road to success from here, but he has multiple forms of currency with him and there are still jewels to find. Which direction do you want to see him go?

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[Rex Buckingham]

It is not for the best that the Cubs didn't get the best player in baseball

[Radar3454]

The Dodgers might be able to make it work, but a contract like that would not have worked out well for the Cubs.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Radar3454 said:

The Dodgers might be able to make it work, but a contract like that would not have worked out well for the Cubs.

Agreed. If the Cubs got Ohtani, for the next decade Ricketts wouldn’t have added talent around him unless they got lucky enough to home grow that talent. He wouldn’t spend to add. Sure, would have been awesome to have him but that would be all the Cubs had. It would have ended up a marketing tool to get fans into the park, sell merchandise, raise tv prices all to see Ohtani. Not to see a wiinning team. I just don’t think ownership is that committed to winning that they would continue to add what was needed year after year and would point to their team payroll as a reason why. 

[Max Power]

It won’t happen, but it would be kind of cool if he pulled a Heyward and was complete horseshit for the length of the contract.

[BTM33]

Yea, no.

I would rather have the best player in the world.

 

[NorthsideAvenger]

7 minutes ago, BTM33 said:

Yea, no.

I would rather have the best player in the world.

 

And that is all you would have: Ohtani and a bunch of cheap, mediocre talent. 

Not wanting to pay one player, no matter how good he is, all of your money is not a "Defeatist" attitude but a pragmatic one. Afterall Ohtani is still just one player on a 25/26 man roster.

 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, BTM33 said:

Yea, no.

I would rather have the best player in the world.

 

So would I. But I also know the Cubs ownership. With this ownership they would not spend to add on. Sure, give me a different owner and I want the best player in the world. I am only answering the question base on reality and who owns the team. 

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Tbf it perfectly fits the Cubs experience. This local, humble, family owned business in the small town of Chicago just can’t hang with them big city teams 

As long as Ricketts owns the team that is the persona he chooses to portray. So that being the case, I think it is better we didn’t get Ohtani. 

[CubinNY]

My thinking is the Cubs only pretend they were in this. I’m sure the interest was high, but the price was out of their philosophical, contractual, and financial possibility. Said another way, they aren’t going to make a bold move like that. On one level, who can blame them- no one else was either. But on another level, it does a disservice to them and Cubs fans to pretend that they were or are intent to make a franchise altering decision like this.

Tom and his siblings have plan for maximizing profits and at the same time trying to put out a competitive team that is sustainably competitive. They hired a like minded guy to put that plan into effect. Why try to be an organization they are not? 
 

If I were a reporter in Chicago covering the Cubs, that’s the question I’d try to be answering. 

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

My thinking is the Cubs only pretend they were in this. I’m sure the interest was high, but the price was out of their philosophical, contractual, and financial possibility. Said another way, they aren’t going to make a bold move like that. On one level, who can blame them- no one else was either. But on another level, it does a disservice to them and Cubs fans to pretend that they were or are intent to make a franchise altering decision like this.

Tom and his siblings have plan for maximizing profits and at the same time trying to put out a competitive team that is sustainably competitive. They hired a like minded guy to put that plan into effect. Why try to be an organization they are not? 
 

If I were a reporter in Chicago covering the Cubs, that’s the question I’d try to be answering. 

The key words on your post are “my thinking is”. Because honestly you have no idea if they were in at the high $500M to even $600M or not. It was reported the Dodgers added $100M the last day or so before he signed. So if the Cubs were in at the $500M to $600M that means they were in. I seriously doubt this was just something the Cubs were doing to make the fans feel like they were trying. I absolutely believe they tried but Ohtani was never going to leave LA. 

[Outshined_One]

I could understand this sort of attitude if Soto was on the FA market and just went for something like 10/500.  He's just one player, albeit a really good one, and his decline at the plate and in the field is inevitable.

With Ohtani, though, how do you properly value a guy who can be both one of the best hitters in baseball AND a TORP pitcher? Even if he declines into a decent hitter and a decent pitcher (assuming health), you're still getting a guy who produces on the mound and at the plate.

Oddly enough, I can buy the argument that he's still underpaid over the life of his contract, even taking into account the fact that he won't pitch for another year.

[CubinNY]

36 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The key words on your post are “my thinking is”. Because honestly you have no idea if they were in at the high $500M to even $600M or not. It was reported the Dodgers added $100M the last day or so before he signed. So if the Cubs were in at the $500M to $600M that means they were in. I seriously doubt this was just something the Cubs were doing to make the fans feel like they were trying. I absolutely believe they tried but Ohtani was never going to leave LA. 

According to reports he didn’t meet with counsell or even visit the Cubs. 
 

Define try? They bought a measure of goodwill among the fan base. I guess that’s worth something. 

Edited December 10, 2023 by CubinNY

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I could understand this sort of attitude if Soto was on the FA market and just went for something like 10/500.  He's just one player, albeit a really good one, and his decline at the plate and in the field is inevitable.

With Ohtani, though, how do you properly value a guy who can be both one of the best hitters in baseball AND a TORP pitcher? Even if he declines into a decent hitter and a decent pitcher (assuming health), you're still getting a guy who produces on the mound and at the plate.

Oddly enough, I can buy the argument that he's still underpaid over the life of his contract, even taking into account the fact that he won't pitch for another year.

He may be underpaid for what he does for the team in revenues. But that is still a large chuck of money of the teams payroll. That is the issue with if the Cubs got him. Maybe it won’t matter with the Dodgers. Maybe that is why they made more sense.

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

According to reports he didn’t meet with counsell or even visit the Cubs. 
 

Define try? The bought a measure of goodwill among the fan base. I guess that’s worth something. 

According to reports he was flying to Toronto on Friday to sign a deal with the Blue Jays. For a guy who wanted the negotiations to be quiet, there sure was a lot of fake news going on. So if the Cubs honored his wishes and actually kept things quiet, do we really know what to believe? 

[Jason Ross]

The AAV could go down as low as $40m AAV due to differed money (per Passan) and the real-world-value of this will be less than $700m. I have no idea if Ohtani was open to Chicago, or open to this kind of a contract to be in Chicago. What I will say, is on this contract, I disagree that it's a good thing the Cubs didn't get him. It's a bad thing they didn't get him. Ohtani is worth plenty for the team in extra revenue, he's a great-once-in-a-lifetime talent. 

The Cubs can still come out of this good for 2024. But they won't be as good if they had Ohtani.

[We Got The Whole 9]

11 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The AAV could go down as low as $40m AAV due to differed money (per Passan) and the real-world-value of this will be less than $700m. I have no idea if Ohtani was open to Chicago, or open to this kind of a contract to be in Chicago. What I will say, is on this contract, I disagree that it's a good thing the Cubs didn't get him. It's a bad thing they didn't get him. Ohtani is worth plenty for the team in extra revenue, he's a great-once-in-a-lifetime talent. 

The Cubs can still come out of this good for 2024. But they won't be as good if they had Ohtani.

The question to me then is why couldn't Jed get crafty with a deal like this? I believe Betts has quite a bit of deferred money as well.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The question to me then is why couldn't Jed get crafty with a deal like this? I believe Betts has quite a bit of deferred money as well.

Yeah, I'd wonder too. My guess is that the Ricketts don't want to be paying $300m for however many years it's differed. But I think that's silly for someone as generationally wealthy as the Ricketts.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I suspect the answer is there's only one team Ohtani was willing to make that sacrifice for.  Based on all available information there's no way an NPV AAV in the (low?) 40s was the most lucrative offer he had.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I suspect the answer is there's only one team Ohtani was willing to make that sacrifice for.  Based on all available information there's no way an NPV AAV in the (low?) 40s was the most lucrative offer he had.

Which is likely fair. It seems quite obvious that the Dodgers were always the choice here. I think the Cubs could have gotten crafty, still offered more AAV/money, played with deferments, but I have a feeling the reports that he knew where he wanted to end up, that he preferred LA...that these were ultimately true. I'm not sure I place that much blame on the Cubs here, because I think based on the Dodgers behavior, and Ohtani's, that as long as the Dodgers were close-ish, this was going to be the end.

Edited December 10, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

My thinking is the Cubs only pretend they were in this. I’m sure the interest was high, but the price was out of their philosophical, contractual, and financial possibility. Said another way, they aren’t going to make a bold move like that. On one level, who can blame them- no one else was either. But on another level, it does a disservice to them and Cubs fans to pretend that they were or are intent to make a franchise altering decision like this.

Tom and his siblings have plan for maximizing profits and at the same time trying to put out a competitive team that is sustainably competitive. They hired a like minded guy to put that plan into effect. Why try to be an organization they are not? 
 

If I were a reporter in Chicago covering the Cubs, that’s the question I’d try to be answering. 

As a lifelong Cub fan, I totally agree with your post.  I am shocked at the number of Cub fans who really believed that Ricketts was going to spend upwards of $500 million on one player.  As for all of the quotes by "experts", there job is to get followers in order to make money.  If there's no news to report, just make up "news".

 

[Tryptamine]

It is hard to believe, considering the Cubs have never given out a 200M deal let alone 500M. I'd like to believe it's true, but I do have significant doubts.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The AAV could go down as low as $40m AAV due to differed money (per Passan) and the real-world-value of this will be less than $700m. I have no idea if Ohtani was open to Chicago, or open to this kind of a contract to be in Chicago. What I will say, is on this contract, I disagree that it's a good thing the Cubs didn't get him. It's a bad thing they didn't get him. Ohtani is worth plenty for the team in extra revenue, he's a great-once-in-a-lifetime talent. 

The Cubs can still come out of this good for 2024. But they won't be as good if they had Ohtani.

If Ohtani was willing to sign the same contract with the Cubs and it really is only going to show $40M a year on the teams payroll, I agree the Cubs should have done this. But I doubt they had the opportunity. I think it was always the Dodgers. I do question the ownership and if they are committed to spending at that level, but in this case I don’t think it matters. He wouldn’t have done this deal with the Cubs. 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If Ohtani was willing to sign the same contract with the Cubs and it really is only going to show $40M a year on the teams payroll, I agree the Cubs should have done this. But I doubt they had the opportunity. I think it was always the Dodgers. I do question the ownership and if they are committed to spending at that level, but in this case I don’t think it matters. He wouldn’t have done this deal with the Cubs. 

Which I mentioned to TT, is fair. At the same time, it doesn't make it good that we don't have Ohtani. There's no argument that a once in a lifetime type player being on another team that is good, however. It doesn't mean we don't have a path to a fine offseason, but I think claiming we don't have him is good...well...I won't agree.

Edited December 10, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[LBiittner]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If Ohtani was willing to sign the same contract with the Cubs and it really is only going to show $40M a year on the teams payroll, I agree the Cubs should have done this. But I doubt they had the opportunity. I think it was always the Dodgers. I do question the ownership and if they are committed to spending at that level, but in this case I don’t think it matters. He wouldn’t have done this deal with the Cubs. 

You are right. I believe he always wanted the Dodgers. Toronto and Chicago were used to drive up the price. A lot of speculation ohtani camp leaked fake interest.