Cubs Video
By now, you've probably heard about Tyler Glasnow's gaudy strikeout rates. That's the selling point for him. It's why he's drawn so much interest, despite his lack of durability and the fact that he becomes a free agent after 2024, a season in which he'll make $25 million. Every team, especially in 2023, loves pitchers who strike people out. There's not much subtlety to it, but it's the way of the pitching world.
As the Rays have shopped Glasnow and rumors have intensified, though, the Cubs are standing out (along with the Dodgers and Reds, and a couple presumed dark horses) from the field. They clearly have an interest that runs deeper than the sheer strikeout stuff, and an attraction to him that chips away at the conservatism that has historically led Jed Hoyer to prefer safer, sturdier, lower-ceiling starters. What fuels that?
Some of the answer is in Glasnow's unique physicality and delivery. Only a handful of other pitchers in MLB get further down the mound and release their pitches closer to home plate than does the long, fluid Glasnow. This can sometimes feel like a small thing, but compare these overhead 3D visualizations of two pitchers' pitches. First, here's Glasnow.
Now, here's Justin Verlander--another tall right-handed hurler with mid-90s heat and two breaking balls that work off of it.
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From this digital bird's eye, you can see how big a difference extension can make. Glasnow's hand is a foot and a half closer to home than is Verlander's on an average fastball. Note the white and pink dots along the flight paths of the pitches, too. Because of the greater extension Glasnow achieves, hitters can't recognize and differentiate his offerings with as much distance between them and the ball (and thus, with as much time to decide on whether to attack) as they can against Verlander's stuff.
Glasnow pays a kinetic price for the intensity of his delivery. His injury history makes that clear. However, he also gets a real benefit from it. Of the 506 pitchers who threw at least 200 fastballs last year, Glasnow ranked 72nd in raw velocity, but 25th in perceived velocity, according to Statcast. That he throws that hard with that much extension also helps engender swings (and especially swings and misses) on his breaking stuff.
The Cubs don't generally go wild for extension. Whereas Glasnow's Rays ranked first in MLB in that regard in 2023, Chicago was 26th. It's something they've been trying to balance out a bit, though, and as Craig Counsell comes down from Milwaukee to take the helm, he might also bring along his predilections in these small things. The Brewers ranked second to Tampa in extension this year.
One thing for which the Cubs already do go wild, though, is cutting action on four-seam fastballs. Famously, some sources reclassified Justin Steele's fastball as a cutter this year, and that's with good reason. If you count that heater as a four-seamer, though, the Cubs had more cut (or less armside run, to flip things around) on their four-seam fastballs in 2023 than any other team in MLB. Of the 359 hurlers who threw at least 200 four-seamers this year, Glasnow ranked 11th in cut on the pitch. In that way, he would fit their pitching philosophy perfectly, and Tommy Hottovy would love working with him.
None of this means Glasnow is a perfect trade target. The injuries that have plagued him throughout his career should give any team pause about trading significant talent to get him, but it sure seems like the price tag will be substantial. That's the nature of the marketplace for starting pitching throughout MLB over the last few years, as the proliferation of guys like Glasnow (great, but fragile) has created an artificially high level of consistent demand for starters. In all likelihood, what he gets traded for will make fans of whichever team lands him wince.
Still, there are clear matches between the Cubs and this particular hurler. They have the organizational depth to trade for him without that wince being too long-lasting, too. While Glasnow is a deeply imperfect pitcher, his unique characteristics make him alluring in a way few other available starters are.
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