Article: Is It Ohtani, Yamamoto, Soto or Bust?

[Maddux31]

The signing of Craig Counsell as manager started a frenzy among Cubs fans over the prospect of being ultra-aggressive this offseason. But did Counsell’s signing really mean the Cubs are all-in this offseason? And will fans revolt if they are not?

When the Cubs signed Craig Counsell to a five-year, $40-million contract less than a month ago, the assumption among many media members and fans was that it signaled the team would go on a spending spree this offseason--hat President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer must have “promised” Counsell something big to lure him to Chicago. Almost from the moment Counsell signed, the talk about what the Cubs might be willing to do this offseason began to center around highly-coveted free agents such as two-way megastar Shohei Ohtani and Japanese pitching sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto, or a trade for San Diego outfielder Juan Soto. 

But did Counsell’s signing signal that the Cubs planned to be more aggressive this offseason than previously believed, or did Hoyer bring in the former Brewers manager as part of what he hoped would be a series of lesser moves to make the team better, with the possibility for a big signing only if all the pieces were to come together amid a highly competitive marketplace? 

The move 90 miles south made sense for Counsell regardless of the answer to that question, given the size of his contract; his desire to stay rooted in the Midwest; and the lure of a new challenge. He also seemed to relish the possibility of working with more available resources, but that could be true without the investment being on the scale of committing hundreds of millions of dollars to land a free agent like Ohtani or Yamamoto. 

Estimates for what it might take to sign Ohtani, who will play much of next year at age 29, have been as high as 10 years, $600 million, while the general consensus on Yamamoto (who will play most of next year at just 25) is that he will top $200 million in guaranteed money. By contrast, the largest contract the Cubs have ever given out is the eight-year, $184-million deal they doled out to Jason Heyward prior to their 2016 World Series-winning season.

Since taking over for Theo Epstein, Hoyer has preached patience and “intelligent spending,” while always keeping the door open for big signings, such as the seven-year, $177-million one that brought Dansby Swanson to Chicago in 2023. In truth, Hoyer has signaled that getting the roster to where he wants it will likely take two offseasons, instead of one, giving the Cubs a chance to see how some of their top prospects develop over the course of 2024. 

These include Pete Crow-Armstrong, who seems like a good bet to patrol center field beginning as soon as Opening Day, and fellow prospect Matt Shaw, who has the potential to anchor third base in the not-too-distant future. 

The general consensus is that the Cubs need a big bat; one or two pitchers who can move the needle in their starting rotation; and moves to improve the depth of their bullpen. Two obvious holes for 2024 are first and third base. So, should they commit the kind of money it would take to sign Ohtani, at the expense of making other needed moves? Even signing potential ace Yamamoto would leave some room for Hoyer to maneuver. 

According to FanGraphs, the Cubs' 2024 payroll for luxury-tax purposes stands at about $186 million, give or take a few million. That leaves them roughly $50 million to spend before they exceed the first tier of the luxury tax and begin incurring penalties. They would have up to $70 million to spend before exceeding the second tier, meaning that unless they were willing to blow past the luxury tax threshold to the point where it would become difficult to eventually get back under the first tier and maintain financial flexibility going forward, Ohtani would likely eat up the majority of what they would have to spend this offseason. 

What makes the two-time MVP different, unlike any free agent in baseball history, is that he is potentially a top-of-the-line starter and a difference-making bat. However, he is unlikely to pitch next year after having elbow surgery in late September, and it is unknown if he will be able to return to the level he previously attained as a hurler. Without the bonus of what he provides on the mound, Ohtani’s estimated FanGraphs/Steamer WAR projections for 2024 both stand at just 4.0–less than the same figures for the (possibly) departing Cody Bellinger provided in 2023 (4.1). Consider that Justin Steele projects to have a FanGraphs/Steamer WAR of 3.4 this season, while Nico Hoerner is at 3.1 or 3.2.

By comparison, Soto--a few years younger than Ohtani–has an expected value for the upcoming year of 6.6/6.4, while Toronto shortstop Bo Bichette is at 4.0/4.2. So, might the Cubs be better off cashing in on their prospect depth and trading for Soto, who has one year of control, or Bichette, who has two? 

Baseball-Reference projects Ohtani to hit 35 homers this coming year and to hit .279 with an on-base percentage of .377, a slugging percentage of .572, and an OPS of .949. Those are lofty numbers, to be sure, but if signing Ohtani means that many other needs would remain unfilled, is it the right move? 

The Cubs' history and raw numbers suggest that the answer is no, but the baseball landscape is changing. Many have pointed out that they need a megastar to build around, and Ohtani certainly offers that, with many potential benefits to the team beyond what he does on the field. Given that reality, might the Ricketts family and Hoyer rationalize that the Cubs need to change their thinking on payroll and take more risks to compete for top players going forward? 

Time will tell, but for many Cubs fans right now, the answer is an unqualified “yes.” It's likely that Counsell, quietly, agrees.

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[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, username said:

I don't get the Bichette talk... which I know is not the overall point of your post, but you mentioned him.  He is a SS.  We have a SS and there is zero chance Dansby is moving to any other position.  Could Bichette play 3B?  He hasn't played a single inning there in his professional career (minors or majors).  I don't know if he's capable, but this seems like square peg, round hole.  And that's to say nothing of the big question of why the BJ's would even trade him in the first place.  

I would assume Bichette could handle 3b. His arm strength isn't particularly strong, but neither is Swanson, Hoerner, or Madrigal and all three have been +DRS players at traditionally "strong armed" positions with both the Cubs and other teams. He's been a pretty neutral, or slightly +DRS player at SS over his career (except for the -16 in 2022, but that feels like a weird outlier based on his other data). I think he's a square peg, square hole for the Cubs in that he's a good player, with control. 

With all that said...the Blue Jays aren't trading him. Recent reports refuted they're interested in moving him and I don't see the motivation. I don't see the Cubs matching up well with them either. So I think if there's a square peg, round hole area it's these things. We aren't getting him.

[CubinNY]

To me, getting a front-line starting pitcher or two, some more thump in the lineup and a dependable couple of relief pitchers or bust. I don't care how they get there and if they have to use some farm depth, that's ok too. But they need to fill the holes on the team.

[Rex Buckingham]

I don't think you have to get one (or two) of those 3 for the offseason to be a success, but it becomes a lot harder if you don't. I don't know that I place Yamamoto in the same Tier as Ohtani and Soto because they're proven superstars and he hasn't proven it at the MLB level, but given his age and expected performance he is right behind them. 

Missing on players on the level of Ohtani and Soto knocks everything down because they can be generally counted on for such a high baseline of performance. a .949 OPS would be awesome to drop into your lineup. He's also been well above that twice already in his career, and hitting at Wrigley seemingly should help his power numbers. 

[Bertz]

Yamamoto is a bit if a different beast than the hitters.  Indications are that he's more all-star than superstar.  He's young and should hopefully stay that way for a while, but his appeal is more as a foundational core piece than as some monster for 2024.  Short term he's probably not too different from Snell/Rodriguez/Montgomery/etc.

Soto and Ohtani though, they provide a path to a fundamentally different team than any alternatives.  They are game-wrecking offensive forces.  None of the other players potentially available provide that kind of offensive impact.  They might get to a similar value via defense, but they do not transform the lineup like the two big boys.

If I'm Jed and I miss on those top two bats, I probably focus on short term deals for bats and poor a bunch of resources into the pitching staff.  Go with a deeper more run-prevention focused unit and keep powder dry to hopefully finally add that monster bat next year.  Though at that point you'd need to seriously question if Jed has the stones to pull down a really big fish.

[Rcal10]

I agree getting Otani or Soto is a huge plus for the off season. But, there are still many avenues to building  90+win team next year, through FA and trades. They would have to go over the LT this year, but probably be back under in 25’. All is not lost if they don’t get Otani, Soto or Yamamoto, but the path gets more narrow. 

[chopsx9]

Also if they don't get Soto now there's a reasonable chance you can get him next year without having to give up any prospect capital.

[CandidCubs]

This has to be one of the more challenging to read off-seasons in recent years, given the cloud of apprehension from the fanbase on actual intention to spend, vs the clear involvement in the Ohtani sweepstakes. 

Currently, I have so many mixed feelings about the situation. I am excited that the Ohtani pursuit is legitimate, as I still have not really recovered from the absence of the Cubs from the Bryce Harper pursuit. I realize their is likely significant cash-flow restraints tied to decisions made as the Ricketts repaired bad assets and invested in Wrigley. 

That being said, it will be sobering that financial intent and fit doesn't necessarily guarantee success. The front office by all indications is making a play for Ohtani, but the real work will come if he does not select the Cubs. 

If he does come to Chicago, there are other items that need to be addressed on this roster. The rumors and the smoke (as little as Jed and team seem to leak) show a broad reach of ideas and questions. 

It is becoming clear that this offseason may define Jed's tenure as President. 

[Rex Buckingham]

39 minutes ago, CandidCubs said:

Currently, I have so many mixed feelings about the situation. I am excited that the Ohtani pursuit is legitimate, as I still have not really recovered from the absence of the Cubs from the Bryce Harper pursuit. I realize their is likely significant cash-flow restraints tied to decisions made as the Ricketts repaired bad assets and invested in Wrigley. 

 

Nobody who owns a major North American sports franchise is ever hurting for $. It may be the single most profitable "investment" available

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree getting Otani or Soto is a huge plus for the off season. But, there are still many avenues to building  90+win team next year, through FA and trades. They would have to go over the LT this year, but probably be back under in 25’. All is not lost if they don’t get Otani, Soto or Yamamoto, but the path gets more narrow. 

Agree.  There's numerous good players available in FA and likely available in trade also.  They can sign Ohtani, or for about the same price of Ohtani's AAV sign Bellinger + Snell, or numerous other combinations of good players that will improve the team.  How much they spend in payroll in 2024 is more important than which good players they sign. A 5 WAR guy + a 3 WAR guy compared to two 4 WAR guys...not much of a difference really.

Also the idea that any MLB team needs a "megastar" to build around is illogical.  A good team needs a lot of good players.  Trout and Ohtani have won nothing in Anaheim because their teams aren't good.

[Tryptamine]

It would be supremely disappointing to miss all 3, but it wouldn't necessarily be a death sentence for 2024. What it would do is give very little to no margin for error in acquiring the 2nd and 3rd tier FA  they need and getting creative with trades. With that said, if they miss all 3, I have very little confidence they'll do what needs to be done and the Cubs will enter 2024 with an over/under around 82-84.

[Jason Ross]

Jeff Passan on Yamamoto: 

"the 25-year-old right-hander will decide among a who's who of teams interested in him: The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs are among the favorites, with the Giants, Blue Jays and Phillies also expected to be in the mix."

[CubinNY]

There is a saying in commercial fishing that goes something like this, "don't tell me about the waves, bring in the fish".

But it is really exciting to have the Cubs name in discussions for all these players. In the age of style over substance, I wouldn't put anything past anyone, but I don't think the Ricketts are blowing smoke here. It's such a change from the days gone by when the Cubs sat on the sidelines. 

At the same time, I hope they land a whopper or two.

[NorthsideAvenger]

41 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Jeff Passan on Yamamoto: 

"the 25-year-old right-hander will decide among a who's who of teams interested in him: The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Cubs are among the favorites, with the Giants, Blue Jays and Phillies also expected to be in the mix."

I like Passan but this has a certain Heyman "duh" feel to it. Might be easier to say, "Yamamota is only interested in the teams with the most money to spend."

[We Got The Whole 9]

If we don't land Soto, I'm thinking it's because we wanted to protect PCA and Horton, I would be trying to lead with Alcantara. 

[mul21]

Any of those feels like a massive overpay considering the dire payroll straits the Padres are in.  Everyone knows they have to move him and that it's only going to be for one year.  A bucket of balls and a reliever would normally be the return but since other teams obviously are interested the cost will be higher.